BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

Plenty of excitement this week from Wentworth, but none whatsoever from BludgerTrack.

New polls from Newspoll and Ipsos have made next to no difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s reading on voting intention, unless you count 54-46 as a psychological barrier, since it was 53.9-46.1 last week. There has been no change on the seat projection, and only small movements in the primary vote – the largest being a drop from 6.6% to 5.9% for One Nation, who were down from 7% to 5% in the Ipsos poll. I still don’t have a Scott Morrison net approval trend in action yet, but Bill Shorten’s reading records a slight improvement after a somewhat stronger result from Newspoll than their previous poll three weeks ago. The preferred prime minister trend has hardly moved at all, and remains very much as it was under Malcolm Turnbull.

Full results on the link below. Note also the post below this one, dealing with the rather more interesting subject of Saturday’s Wentworth by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,160 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

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  2. adrian
    ???????????? Mooney is a skilled satirist and comedian. And very funny IMO.
    You, on the other hand…..
    _______________
    Mooney calls him ‘tits shorten’, ‘alien headed freak’. Shorten went and saw the show. Seems he has a thicker skin about himself than you do on his behalf.

    I’m just recycling Mooney’s stuff, which you love, but no from me. sorry.

  3. briefly, Ronzy. I’ve enjoyed your discussions on deities. For a bit of thoughtful fun and levity, Terry Pratchett has a humorous poke at why deities exist in his novel Small Gods. It was the first of his Discworld novels that I read and though it helps if you have already read some of his others it stands alone. Good read.

  8. Greensborough Growler:

    Look, I’m not far off from dementia, but that pic of Howard makes me want to go the way of Fentanyl.

    As for dear Florence, she reminds me of my dear, departed mother, who followed her dear departed husband – both paid-up members of the DLP; B.A. Santamaria could not put a foot wrong in their view.

  9. Sharma strikes me as more suited to the Senate

    Given that it seems the Liberal Party’s definition of someone “suited to the Senate” is anyone who can blindly vote for a One Nation “It’s OK to be white” motion that’s a fairly devastating comment!

  10. whilst the USA and the west have pandered to Saudia Arabia for obvious reasons over the years.
    the 9/11 fiasco comes to mind.
    But you gotta ask why Trump is covering for the Saudi Prince. What is his personal motivation. There are lots of theories floating about.
    ————————————————-
    @SteveSchmidtSES
    51m51 minutes ago
    More
    A US permanent resident, the Father of American children and a Washington Post columnist was murdered in a Saudi Consulate and dismembered. The Saudi statement is a farce and a joke. The Trump administration is colluding in this sham. It is a disgrace of epic dimensions. Shameful

  11. Jen, I agree (but I am an atheist). Except the bit about humans being insignificant. Life on this planet is significant as it could very well be unique. Humans are a part of that – more so as we are a threat to the diversity of that life.

    Perhaps a religion based around ‘life’ would be appropriate. I am still in shock, awe and amazeballs that the formation of a living cell may well be a one off event in the whole of the universe. And all life on the planet (universe?) is derived from that one event.

  12. How unsurprisement.

    Rick Wilson
    @TheRickWilson
    Follow Follow @TheRickWilson
    More Rick Wilson Retweeted The Spectator Index
    Which is to say, neither is true.Rick Wilson added,
    The Spectator Index

    @spectatorindex
    BREAKING: Trump says Saudi explanation for Jamal Khashoggi’s killing is credible and a ‘good first step’
    5:46 PM – 19 Oct 2018

  13. Victoria:

    Trump has moral laryngitis.

    If the reports are true, it happened in part because American officials — and many others in their bipartisan gushing over M.B.S. — enabled a reckless ruler, helped him gain and consolidate power, and led him to think that he could get away with anything. Trump and Kushner cultivated M.B.S. early on as a potential ally, inviting him to dine in the White House and backing him as he rose to effectively run his country.

    M.B.S. attacked Yemen, creating what the United Nations calls the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, bombing schoolchildren and leaving eight million Yemenis on the brink of starvation — and there were no consequences. He provoked a crisis with Qatar, and there were no consequences. He kidnapped the prime minister of Lebanon, and there were no consequences. He imprisoned women’s rights activists and extorted from business leaders, and there were no consequences.

    If M.B.S. can do all this and still be applauded as reverently as ever in America, it’s no wonder he thought he could get away with dismembering a troublesome journalist. And if there are no serious consequences this time as well, even now that his moniker is said to stand for “Mr. Bone Saw,” what will M.B.S. do next?

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/17/opinion/khashoggi-saudi-arabia-trump.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fopinion-columnists&action=click&contentCollection=columnists&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront

  14. fess

    MBS is a bona fide crazy meglomaniac. Trump isnt the first President to pander to the Saudi leadership. All Presidents have. Remember when Bush helped the Saudi family out of the USA when 9/11/ attacks occurred. Despite 15 saudis were amongst the 19 people involved in the attack on that day.
    Who could forget the US attacking Iraq instead.
    But this feels like a very personal fealty towards MBS by Trump, Kushner and his extended family.
    What gives

  16. I was thinking that ScoMo’s Jerusalem Gambit, apart from the religious angle, could well backfire politically.

    Say it WAS designed to enrapture the Wentworth Jews. Here’s why it mightn’t be such a good idea anyway.

    ● Not all Jews want the embassies in Jerusalem.
    ● It’s hideously cynical to think they do.
    ● It’s even more cynical for a Happy Clapper to effect the move, because Happy Clappers see the Jews as disposable.
    ● Lots of Jews know this, and don’t necessarily like it much. They are understandably antsy about Happy Clappers using them as cannon fodder for Armageddon.
    ● It wasn’t a promise to do anything, just a promise to talk about maybe doing something. And then it wasn’t even a promise.
    ● How about the NON-Jews who DON’T want our embassy in Jerusalem, but ARE voting today?
    ● There are 149 other electorates who might not feel too kindly as well.

    All in call, the proposal could have as much or more downside than upside for ScoMo.

    Really, the only big benefit is not for the Jewish voters in Wentworth but for the crazies who believe Jesus is going to ride down to planet Earth on a moonbeam and take the Happy Clappers back to heaven with him. ScoMo won’t only be their worldwide pin-up boy if he can wangle a Jerusalem embassy, but he could crack eschatological “Prophet” status, depending on the breaks and how far Cabinet is prepared to go along with indulging him.

  18. nath @ #1900 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 1:24 pm

    adrian
    ???????????? Mooney is a skilled satirist and comedian. And very funny IMO.
    You, on the other hand…..
    _______________
    Mooney calls him ‘tits shorten’, ‘alien headed freak’. Shorten went and saw the show. Seems he has a thicker skin about himself than you do on his behalf.

    I’m just recycling Mooney’s stuff, which you love, but no from me. sorry.

    Seems you just don’t get it ‘nath’. However, I have better things to do so don’t expect a further response.

  20. In olden times polititians were happy to grasp hold of plausible deniability. Trump is now grasping at implausible deniability. He supposably cannot see through the thinnest of veils, to declare, nothing to see here.

  21. adrian
    Seems you just don’t get it ‘nath’. However, I have better things to do so don’t expect a further response.
    ______________________
    Adios Amigo. You have tried continually to go me for a while now and haven’t even landed a glove once. Makes sense for you to bow out after so many defeats. May you enjoy Lawrence Mooney’s jibes at Bill Shorten’s expense. By the way, a few years ago Lawrence was working in a local supermarket near me. He was not doing so well then.

  22. — I was thinking that ScoMo’s Jerusalem Gambit, apart from the religious angle, could well backfire politically. —
    Yeah. Morrison really Bingled that one.

  24. zoomster:

    [‘Sharma strikes me as more suited to the Senate, as a backroom operative.’]

    Yes, I agree. He’s not suited to the argy-bargy of the Reps. He reminds me a little of Seenodonars.

  25. – – But this feels like a very personal fealty towards MBS by Trump, Kushner and his extended family.
    What gives – –
    Saudis have the tape? Perhaps other tapes?

  26. Fess

    Nikki Haley said this.
    Was there a hidden message. Lol!

    ________

    Nikki Haley in remarks on her resignation as United States ambassador to the United Nations on Tuesday morning praised President Donald Trump’s family members in the White House and called his son-in-law Jared Kushner a “hidden genius.”

    “I can’t say enough good things about Jared and Ivanka,” Haley said in the Oval Office about Kushner and the president’s daughter. “Jared is such a hidden genius that no one understands.”

    Haley elaborated on Kushner: “I mean to redo the NAFTA deal the way he did.… What I’ve done working with him on the Middle East peace plan, it is so unbelievably well done.”

  28. Bushfire Bill @ #1911 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 1:54 pm

    I was thinking that ScoMo’s Jerusalem Gambit, apart from the religious angle, could well backfire politically.

    Say it WAS designed to enrapture the Wentworth Jews. Here’s why it mightn’t be such a good idea anyway.

    ● Not all Jews want the embassies in Jerusalem.
    ● It’s hideously cynical to think they do.
    ● It’s even more cynical for a Happy Clapper to effect the move, because Happy Clappers see the Jews as disposable.
    ● Lots of Jews know this, and don’t necessarily like it much. They are understandably antsy about Happy Clappers using them as cannon fodder for Armageddon.
    ● It wasn’t a promise to do anything, just a promise to talk about maybe doing something. And then it wasn’t even a promise.
    ● How about the NON-Jews who DON’T want our embassy in Jerusalem, but ARE voting today?
    ● There are 149 other electorates who might not feel too kindly as well.

    All in call, the proposal could have as much or more downside than upside for ScoMo.

    Really, the only big benefit is not for the Jewish voters in Wentworth but for the crazies who believe Jesus is going to ride down to planet Earth on a moonbeam and take the Happy Clappers back to heaven with him. ScoMo won’t only be their worldwide pin-up boy if he can wangle a Jerusalem embassy, but he could crack eschatological “Prophet” status, depending on the breaks and how far Cabinet is prepared to go along with indulging him.

    Morrison’s venture in to Foreign Affairs was just another Bingle.

  32. Vic:

    Good lord, surely she is being sarcastic, she can’t possibly be speaking the truth?! I reckon Frank Bruni is closer to the truth re Jared.

    Where Jared goes, embarrassment follows. He’s Midas minus the touch and the humility. Oblivious to the truth of the kingdom that he was romancing, he bought into and promoted the idea of the Saudis as forward-thinking fixers who would make his self-aggrandizing delusion of peace in the Middle East happen. Now he watches and winces as they clumsily try to settle on the right lie about what happened to the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who is believed to have been tortured, murdered and dismembered in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

    Last year Jared persuaded President Trump to choose Saudi Arabia as his first big stop on his first big foreign trip. He was on the phone with the kingdom so often that it frightened some American security experts. America’s spies, meanwhile, caught wind of communiqués between foreign officials talking about how easily manipulated Jared might be.

    …

    And so the list of Jared’s screw-ups grows.

    He was among the Trump intimates who wanted all those fat-cat bankers in the administration; the resulting optics have dazzled. He pushed for the firing of the former F.B.I. director James Comey; that worked out brilliantly. He advocated the hiring of Anthony Scaramucci for the White House’s communications operation; that was the stuff of farce.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/16/opinion/jared-kushner-jamal-khashoggi.html

  34. fess

    Kushner and Trump are birds of a feather. Too focused on feathering their own nests.

    Traitors to their own country. Hopefully justice will be served

  36. Player One @ #1798 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 8:29 am

    New Zealand negotiated to eliminate many of the worst aspects of the TPP before they signed. I expect every other country has done the same … except us.

    The ALP thinks they will be able to negotiate the treaty after we sign. They are idiots.

    A day or so again briefly posted a link to the ALPs trade policy and said that since it was full of good measures so we shouldn’t worry about the TPP.

    What briefly disingenuously neglected to state was that none of those good ideas are part of the TPP which Labor just voted for. In fact the crossbench tried to amend the TPP bill to include some of the things that Labor that are in its trade policy.

    That’s right, Labor voted against the provisions of its own stated trade policy.

    Shame, Labor. Shame.

  40. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/20/shorten-says-australia-should-boycott-saudi-summit-over-khashoggi-death

    Federal Labor has called for the Morrison government to “send a strong signal” by boycotting a summit in Saudi Arabia in response to the disappearance and death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

    This week, a trio of crossbench senators – Rex Patrick from Centre Alliance, Peter Whish-Wilson from the Greens, and the Australian Conservatives’ Cory Bernardi – pushed for a complete boycott of the event.

    Their motion failed to gain traction on Tuesday. Labor has now backed a boycott.

  43. What briefly disingenuously neglected to state was that none of those good ideas are part of the TPP which Labor just voted for. In fact the crossbench tried to amend the TPP bill to include some of the things that Labor that are in its trade policy.

    Unfortunately the PALP lack the courage to stand up to the economic illiterates in their midst. Bill Shorten, Chris Bowen, Penny Wong, and Jason Clare got this call terribly wrong. The caucus knows it, but they went along with the bad decision out of a misguided sense of duty. Had they flexed their muscle, this bad decision would have been averted and the ALP would have been fine.

    Never underestimate the power of a small group of people to screw things up.

  46. Intel just in, the Liberal Right have booked a room in the same Eastwood club they met in after the Super Saturday By Elections. I posted about that meeting to this blog on the very Sunday. This was the meeting that started the move against Turnbull if you all remember.
    Tony Abbott has called the meeting in the wake of the By Election to discuss the leadership. The game is definately afoot.
    Last time we had a fairly good list of attendees. If I can get the same Intel again, will post same here.

  47. Ronzy,

    Your attention is drawn to Psalm 137 8-9 from ‘the word of god’.

    8 O, Daughter of Babylon, you despoiler,
    Happy is the one who pays you your recompense
    as you dealt out to us.
    9 Happy the one who will seize and dash your infants against the rock!

    So inspiring and heartfelt. A really effective proof of the existence of god, wouldn’t you say?

    I mean, hate that deep, and given to us in ‘his’ word like that, must be even more a proof of the potential existence of god than even the existence of love, if I follow you correctly. But that is, of course, a paradox, in that it is almost impossible for me to follow you at all.

  48. nath says:
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 2:13 pm
    What say you Ronzy, musical instruments allowed in heaven?

    Absolutely. I can’t think why there wouldn’t be. At the very least the bible refers to the use of trumpets and harps in heavenly worship.

    There is nothing intrinsically evil about music and the instruments of music. Indeed, for me, they enhance my experience of worship and my ability to praise God.

    Psalm 150 is all about the use of musical instruments when praising God. In this respect it makes no sense to encourage the use of musical instruments on earth and not have them in heaven.

    So Nath, although I am not able to give a definitive answer as to what heaven will be like, I am quite sure there will be much singing accompanied by musical instruments.

  49. – – Intel just in, the Liberal Right have booked a room in the same Eastwood club they met in after the Super Saturday By Elections. – –
    Nacht der langen Messer

  50. Simon² Katich® says:

    – – Intel just in, the Liberal Right have booked a room in the same Eastwood club they met in after the Super Saturday By Elections. – –

    Where for entertainment they are to perform their version of Der Untergang.

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