BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

Plenty of excitement this week from Wentworth, but none whatsoever from BludgerTrack.

New polls from Newspoll and Ipsos have made next to no difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s reading on voting intention, unless you count 54-46 as a psychological barrier, since it was 53.9-46.1 last week. There has been no change on the seat projection, and only small movements in the primary vote – the largest being a drop from 6.6% to 5.9% for One Nation, who were down from 7% to 5% in the Ipsos poll. I still don’t have a Scott Morrison net approval trend in action yet, but Bill Shorten’s reading records a slight improvement after a somewhat stronger result from Newspoll than their previous poll three weeks ago. The preferred prime minister trend has hardly moved at all, and remains very much as it was under Malcolm Turnbull.

Full results on the link below. Note also the post below this one, dealing with the rather more interesting subject of Saturday’s Wentworth by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,160 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

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  1. In terms of pure murderous numbers, Stalin is generally regarded as 20+ million, Hitler possibly half that. Mao and the rest? On this measure – way behind.

  2. briefly says:
    Friday, October 19, 2018 at 11:42 pm
    “Ronzy….my post is entirely self-explanatory…and it’s likely falsifiable, so could qualify as possible knowledge.

    That which cannot be known by rational means …that which is irrational… is incompatible with a rational cosmos. I think this means that for you a cosmos without a deity is incomprehensible while for me it is precisely the opposite.”

    It would appear that the inexplicable, illogical and mysterious is not confined to the realms of religion.
    This appeared on the ABC news website this morning.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-10-20/artificial-intelligence-better-than-physicists-trapping-atoms/10338706

  3. Ven

    Mussolini is standing behind Trump – fitting because he is the biggest braggart and buffoon of the lot. I think the woman in the background is Sarah Huckabee Sanders, distressed at how she is going to spin this.

  4. Here’s an interesting scenario … unlikely but, well …

    Phelps comes 1st, Sharma runs 2nd or 3rd, and prefs get ALP over the line!

  5. Player One

    I do not think the ALP are idiots. The ALP think we are idiots.

    Remember most of the ALP politicians have been there some years.

    They are from the trickle-down generation. Tricklers, i call them.

  6. Sprocket at 11.36

    Numbers don’t matter that much. As Stalin allegedly said: ‘the death of one person is a tragedy; the death of a million people is a statistic’.

  7. jenauthor

    Phelps comes 1st, Sharma runs 2nd or 3rd, and prefs get ALP over the line!
    _________________________________

    But whose preferences?

  8. From the news:

    Saudi Arabian prosecutors have said they believe Saudi writer Jamal Khashoggi was killed in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul in a quarrel.

    ______________________________

    Indeed, he took exception to them torturing and murdering him. So they were forced to torture and murder him.

  9. Hello everyone

    Another note from Wentworth.

    The Anglican’s newly announced ban was well and truly in mind while voting at the church hall under the purview of one of the Jensen brothers at St Mark’s, Darling Point today: a Labor presence, a huge contingent of Phelps supporters, two Greens, two GetUp’s, a Euthanasia Party person – heaven forbid! (And at least eight even more surly than usual Liberals. Our beautiful daughter wore an ‘It’s Time’ T-shirt and was given a lot of stick by them for wearing ‘unauthorised campaign materiel’ – LOL!)

    Phelps’ ‘Where’s Malcolm?’ corflute was prominently displayed, although best upon exiting. The ALP’s ScoMo-hugs-Malcolm ‘Remember Disunity. Dysfunction. Chaos’ poster was in the unmissable position adjacent to the queue entering the hall. Almost everyone I saw in the queue was pulling out their phone to take a photo. Well done.

  10. Lizzie

    Sorry about abrupt post earlier.
    I was talking to my nephew in Canberra.
    Phone in left hand – to right ear. The complexity became too much for me. I guess I must be one a them there elderly persons. 😵

    Stuart Robert to profit from MasterChef man’s IPO
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/stuart-robert-to-profit-from-masterchef-mans-ipo/news-story/a9953cf88bd904387de5ae2b614a3c1f

    https://www.outline.com/f9Vt7y

    Assistant Treasurer Stuart Robert is one of the largest investors in a resources exploration company founded by a former MasterChef contestant once accused of embezzling $US7 million to fund a playboy lifestyle.

    The scandal-prone Liberal MP and longtime Canberra flatmate of Scott Morrison is set to make a paper profit from a proposed float next month of Brisbane-based Centaur Resources on the Australian Stock Exchange.

    E & OE

  11. Very Interesting discussion on Reddit recently. Why is Bill Shorten so unpopular?

    garnering around 200 comments the views were eclectic.

    I Will highlight a few:

    Attention seeker with no substance. It is only about Bill.

    “because he has the head of a midget”.

    He’s a rat who offered to sell out Australia to the USA in exchange for help becoming PM.

    I dunno man, I get the impression the man is quite intelligent. You don’t work your way to the top by orchestrating
    the demise of two of your in-party competitors if you’re not intelligent.

    (uncharismatic, unconvincing, etc.)

    His background is a bit shady, I think most clued in people are aware of that.

    I once heard someone remark that the only reason Bill Shorten has been the leader of the ALP for so long
    is that Bill Shorten is the only leader Bill Shorten wouldn’t knife.

    he can come across as a weak individual. his mannerisms, much like Rudd’s,
    can be effeminate and awkward which is worsened by his rigid and banal style of communication.

    possible shady Union past, plays right into the liberal and Murdoch medias anti Union narrative

    Possible (likely) dodgy past as a union rep striking poor deals for workers in exchange for personal gain.
    Pivotal figure in Rudd/Gillard leadership tussle.

    He was a key player in setting off this endless chain of navel gazing and changing prime ministers.

    He is insincere and untrustworthy. Everything he says sounds like a bad actor reading a prepared statement.

    Bill is a union hack with no charisma, orchestrated the knifing of Kevin Rudd and demonstrates no leadership skills. I’m a labor voter and I can’t stand shorten

  12. KayJay

    Thank you for your response, as always. Lots of rather thick smoke, implying that The Oz is against Roberts, thinks I.

    In other news, I have just had solar panels installed/inspected. So it’s absolutely tipping down rain from a dark sky. 😆

  13. The woman is definitely Huckabee Sanders.
    Mao and Leopold II should be in there are Mussolini probably shouldn’t be, although Trump would have loved his company.

  14. nath @ #1824 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 10:47 am

    Oh and the source:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/AustralianPolitics/comments/9olm4t/why_is_bill_shorten_so_unpopular/

    I’d agree with ‘uncharismatic’ and ‘awkward’. I don’t think it’s credible that anyone would still be holding a grudge about Rudd/Gillard (and if they are then WTF; how is Morrison not getting marked down an equal amount for replacing Turnbull?!?). And the rest of the stuff is just trolls trolling.

    Also you can’t discount the years-long Kill Bill media campaign, or the TURC. Shorten gets an obscenely large amount of negative press coverage, and though much of it is mostly baseless it’s still bound to have an effect.

  15. “In terms of pure murderous numbers, Stalin is generally regarded as 20+ million, Hitler possibly half that. Mao and the rest? On this measure – way behind”
    Churchill about 4 million in Bengal, don’t forget.

  16. Any of these ????

    Mousa ‏ @AmericanMousa

    NSA: White House Knew ‘Disappeared’ Saudi Dissident Was In Danger , If the Trump administration knew about it why they didn’t stop it ?
    1- They wanted to happen
    2- Trump wanted him dead because he exposed bribes
    3- Khashoggi was very close to expose Trump / Kushner scam deals

    Puesto Loco™‏ @PuestoLoco

    A guy walks into a consolulate & picks a fight with 15 guys who have lopers & bone saws. “What else could we do but cut off his fingers? He wouldn’t stop yelling so we had to strangle him. He still wouldn’t leave, so what else could we do but cut him up & carry him out in pieces”

  17. Hello nath:

    [‘Why is Bill Shorten so unpopular?’]

    That’s just Tory propoganda.

    I’ll do a Wayne. Bill Shorten will win the next election and go onto lead the glorious Labor Party for three terms. After that, he’ll be appointed the first president of The Republic of Australia.

  18. Latest Ladbrokes betting for Wentworth
    Phelps $1.30 (in from $1.40 yesterday)
    Sharma $2.90 (out from $2.40 yesterday)

    This has been a massive go for Phelps. They can hardly take a bet for Sharma it seems. Can’t help thinking there might be some inside information going on.

  19. a r
    I don’t think it’s credible that anyone would still be holding a grudge about Rudd/Gillard
    ___________________
    I don’t think its necessary a grudge, but I think it has stuck in peoples minds. I mean Wyatt Roy was singled out and probably had very little do with Abbott going. Although I think Shorten was the key player in the Rudd knifing. That image of Shorten working two phones the night of the coup at the Chinese restaurant was seen by a lot of people.

  20. Darn @ #1832 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 11:56 am

    Latest Ladbrokes betting for Wentworth
    Phelps $1.30 (in from $1.40 yesterday)
    Sharma $2.90 (out from $2.40 yesterday)

    This has been a massive go for Phelps. They can hardly take a bet for Sharma it seems. Can’t help thinking there might be some inside information going on.

    Sharma was $3.50 at Sportsbet yesterday. Massive overs!

  21. Ven
    BTW, who is the person standing behind Trump leaning against a pillar
    Re a person who does not know their history: Benito Mussolini

  22. a r @ #1830 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 11:53 am

    Also you can’t discount the years-long Kill Bill media campaign, or the TURC. Shorten gets an obscenely large amount of negative press coverage, and though much of it is mostly baseless it’s still bound to have an effect.

    Also, don’t discount the “Chloe Shorten” effect … how the hell did Bill manage to attract such a gorgeous partner! Is it any wonder everyone hates him? 🙂

  23. NSA: White House Knew ‘Disappeared’ Saudi Dissident Was In Danger , If the Trump administration knew about it why they didn’t stop it ?

    Did you read the NY Times article on Jared from the other day? He’s got the judgement of a 3yo.

  24. Player One
    Also, don’t discount the “Chloe Shorten” effect … how the hell did Bill manage to attract such a gorgeous partner! Is it any wonder everyone hates him?
    _____________________________
    You Could be on to something, especially with the body of an oompa Loompa and the ‘head of a midget’ as someone accurately described.

  25. Sprocket_ says:
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 11:08 am
    The intersting thing about the Smiling Backstabber ScoMo corflute is that it is an ALP one, but no mention of who to vote for…

    Yes. This is prompting people to vote agin Morrison and the Liberals. There are many ways to do that and they will all have the same result – defeat for the Liberals. This really is one of those situations where, for Labor, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

  26. Player One @ #1836 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 12:00 pm

    a r @ #1830 Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 11:53 am

    Also you can’t discount the years-long Kill Bill media campaign, or the TURC. Shorten gets an obscenely large amount of negative press coverage, and though much of it is mostly baseless it’s still bound to have an effect.

    Also, don’t discount the “Chloe Shorten” effect … how the hell did Bill manage to attract such a gorgeous partner! Is it any wonder everyone hates him? 🙂

    It’s the “every bloke wants to be Warney” factor!

  27. Dio, ‘Clinton’s inaction during Rwanda was pretty nauseating as well.’

    I would prefer America didn’t interfere in others’ problems. It would allow themselves to sort themselves out quicker with less lose of life.

    They only interfere when there is a benefit to them to do so. (And sometimes a miscalculated benefit at that, such as Vietnam). Obviously Rwanda had nothing to offer.

    I admire Clinton for resisting the war mongers’ urging in relation to Afghanistan. He made a token effort and only sent over a few dozen cruise missiles, but it took a republican to crank it up to 11 to create the mess it is.

  28. Ha! It’s a bit rich for solicitors/lawyers to judge moral fitness. They must be one of the least respected groups in the country.

    “shellbell says:
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 11:37 am
    Craig Thompson struck off the roll of solicitors in New South Wales on the basis of a lack of fitness”

  29. Kerryn Phelps will get 30% of the primary vote.

    The LNP will get 27%.

    ALP 20%.

    Greens 10%.

    On two-party preferred it will be a comfortable win for Phelps over the LNP.

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