Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45

Labor’s lead is down slightly in Newspoll but well up in Ipsos, with improving personal ratings for Scott Morrison offering scant comfort for the Coalition.

Two new federal polls this evening:

• The Australian reports the first Newspoll in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 38% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 6% (steady). If I understand the report correctly, Scott Morrison is up one on approval to 45% and steady on 39% disapproval, Bill Shorten is up three to 35% and down three to 51%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 45-32 to 45-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1707.

• The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 53-47 to 55-45. After curiously low results for both major parties last month, this month’s primary vote figures have both on 35%, which is a one point increase in the Coalition’s case and a four point increase in Labor’s. The pollster continues to record implausibly strong results for the Greens, who are steady at 15%. Despite everything, Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up four to 50% and disapproval down three to 33%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down three to 41% and up one to 49%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 48-35, out from 47-34 last time. The poll also finds 74% of respondents opposed to laws allowing religious schools to discriminate against gay students or teachers, and 45% in favour of a reduced immigration intake, compared with 23% who want it increased and 29% for it to remain as is. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,520 thoughts on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45”

  3. rhwombat (Block)
    Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 – 7:10 pm
    Comment #2196

    KayJay @ #3375 Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 – 6:58 pm

    Is there a lhwombat somewhere in the universe ❓

    Sorry – the Devil made me ask.

    Probably, but I aspire to be a racemic* mixture

    Pardon me while I wax lyric.

    *racemic
    /rəˈsiːmɪk,rəˈsɛmɪk/
    adjective
    Chemistry
    adjective: racemic

    composed of dextrorotatory and laevorotatory forms of a compound in equal proportion.

    I have no idea what that lot is but my plan tomorrow when receiving news (from my wonderful favourite daughter) of the activities of the most excellent folk who inhabit The Today Show and the like – is somehow to incorporate racemic into an otherwise ordinary sentence.

    I’m thinking – “Should we proceed to OPSM as our primary objective with a secondary target of Bunnings or would that not fit into a racemic view of our proposed activity on this, my primary day release day ❓ ”

    My FD, being much smarter than I, will completely ignore me and proceed as though I had not spoken. What a clever woman. 😇

  5. Ven

    Way back when the Russia Russia Russia hysteria started a journo in the NYT ? Wrote an article advising that if you want to find interference in the US government/elections then look at the networks of Middle East think tanks, lobbyists,pressure groups, political donations. It went in to great detail the many many millions poured in by the Saudis ,Qatar (?) and Israel and their alphabet soup of groups.

  6. nath (AnonBlock)
    Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 – 7:09 pm
    Comment #2193

    Thanks Kay Jay, I enjoy your posts. It was not I that first raised the possibility that William and myself were engaging in a research project. It was possibly the same person who also alleged that I was William himself or ‘a part of William’.

    Whether such a project is real or not I will leave for others to speculate on.

    Thank you indeed for your response . I recall some of those early exchanges – and the verbiage that became a little hot and strong.

    Be good to yourself.

    Goodnight all. 💤💤

  7. Ronzy@7:09pm
    That was a very good post on christian scriptures.
    You living philosophy reminded me of how my father lead his life. However, he also included discipline to that life.

  8. ItzaDream

    That effort by Monty Burns Ruddock set one of the all time lows for an Australian politician. Grrrrr. The prick was probably still wearing his Amnesty International badge as he said it. I like one of the OED definitions of the word ‘Ruddock’ , “A poisonous toad”. From unreliable memory they also noted it was used by witches.

  9. Abortion will no longer be a crime in Queensland, after state MPs voted on Wednesday night to remove the procedure from the criminal code.

    The historic reforms were passed in the Queensland Parliament on Wednesday night via a conscience vote, with the support of LNP members Tim Nicholls, Jann Stuckey and Steve Minnikin helping to ensure its success at the second reading stage

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/abortion-will-no-longer-be-a-crime-in-queensland-after-historic-vote-20181017-p50a8b.html


  10. mikehilliard says:
    Wednesday, October 17, 2018 at 7:04 pm

    Fake email circulating claiming Phelps has HIV and vote Liberal. Go figure.

    I suppose we should add this to the Liberal’s Wednesday stuff up.

  13. mikehilliard says:
    Wednesday, October 17, 2018 at 8:00 pm
    Bit pissed off there are pro Sharma/Liberal add banners running on the blog but I guess it’s all $$

    I got Malaysia Airlines

  14. If Marsh and Marsh retain their positions in the Australian Test side Langer needs to go – and quickly

    Due to fitting them into the side players are batting out of position

    Currently you would look at Warner, Finch (but I would prefer a younger player pushing his credentials at Shield level), Khawaja, Smith, ?? (Shield runs to dictate), Head, L (with a wheelbarrow on the end because of his leg spin bowling also giving depth to our batting), Carey, Cummins, Starc and Hazlewood

    12th. Runs or wickets at Shield level

    I am a fan of leg spin bowling to support our pace attack because of variation and the stock ball turning away from right handers instead of a repetitive off spin bowler around the wicket looking for catches at short leg (noting Lyon went at o/70 after his wickets whilst L with a wheelbarrow caused the problems with 3 wickets)

    Finch has been a credit to himself noting his red ball deficiencies saw him struggling for runs to the extent that he could not make the Victorian Shield side

    Paine is 34 in the next month – and should have been Australia’s keeper for the past 10 years approaching the end of an illustrious career (instead we had Haddin then Wade then back to Haddin)

    L with a wheelbarrow has been a revelation with the ball and may just be who we have been looking for to compliment our quicks, who are each world class

  15. poroti @ #2358 Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 – 7:48 pm

    ItzaDream

    That effort by Monty Burns Ruddock set one of the all time lows for an Australian politician. Grrrrr. The prick was probably still wearing his Amnesty International badge as he said it. I like one of the OED definitions of the word ‘Ruddock’ , “A poisonous toad”. From unreliable memory they also noted it was used by witches.

    poroti, it speaks to the need to dehumanise doesn’t it, which only confirms that what you are doing is inhuman.

  17. Vogon Poet says:
    Wednesday, October 17, 2018 at 7:56 pm
    Abortion will no longer be a crime in Queensland, after state MPs voted on Wednesday night to remove the procedure from the criminal code.

    The historic reforms were passed in the Queensland Parliament on Wednesday night via a conscience vote, with the support of LNP members Tim Nicholls, Jann Stuckey and Steve Minnikin helping to ensure its success at the second reading stage

    Excellent news for the people of Queensland. It’s been a long time coming. Labor have managed to lead law reform, once again. Change is still possible, despite the obstacles placed in the way by the throwbacks of the LNP.

  19. New South Wales will now be the only Australian jurisdiction where abortion remains a criminal offence.

    Law reform in NSW cannot be far away either. The next Labor Government will remove abortion from the criminal statutes and, to add to this, will take measures to ensure that abortion is both accessible and affordable for women in every jurisdiction.

  20. ItzaDream

    I watched the interview at the time and every “it” sounded like the most dog awful discordant CLANG. My gob was truly smacked by what he was so deliberately saying. Utter contempt for the bustard from that day.

  21. That email

    “Can you divert your vote to Dave Sharma in instead? It is very urgent, please let your friends know, too,” the email said.
    “Use all your phone, messenger and social media and show support for Dave Sharma on your Facebook too.
    “The voting card has been printed already, you will still see her name, but she has already quit.
    “Please DO NOT vote for her, just choose Sharma as your top choice only. Kerryn was diagnosed with HIV yesterday so no chance she will be running for the election.
    “Choose Dave Sharma. Otherwise if you choose local white, they will be molesting your children someday.”

    Note the last sentence.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-17/wentworth-by-election-fake-email-claims-kerryn-phelps-has-hiv/10382406

  22. Sceptic says:
    Wednesday, October 17, 2018 at 7:27 pm

    Any chance for a Pollbludger sweep on final primary position for Sharma. 3rd could be possible?

    Who did the Liberals preference on their how to vote?

  23. poroti @ #2370 Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 – 8:11 pm

    ItzaDream

    I watched the interview at the time and every “it” sounded like the most dog awful discordant CLANG. My gob was truly smacked by what he was so deliberately saying. Utter contempt for the bustard from that day.

    Utter. And the cold bloodless face of his creeps me. He and Howard are the lowest in my book, Reith a close third. Ruddock was proselytising the children overboard lies, after it was proven false; stopping gays from getting married in Europe by refusing to issues free to marry certificates or whatever they’re called; all the amnesty international posturing, god I wish I could forget.

  24. Much as I don’t know how the tech works the Libs would have to be SUPER desperate to be directing pro Wentworth adds here. Has Menzies House been receiving pro Tim Murray stuff?

  25. I assume that the ads are personally tailored.
    I am not getting any Liberal ads and would suggest that anyone who IS getting them needs to examine their conscience, go to confession, confess their sins, do penance and receive absolution.

  31. #BREAKING: Agriculture Minister David Littleproud has told Sky News he will not run for the leadership of the Nationals. He has also claimed there is ‘no chance’ of a Nationals leadership contest.

  32. Bevan Shields
    ‏
    Verified account

    @BevanShields
    6h6 hours ago
    More
    Foreign Minister Marise Payne says she is advised Melissa Price will call the former Kiribati president to “ensure there has been no misunderstanding and no offence taken” #auspol

  34. briefly:

    Agree. If any State can lead the way it’s Queensland. Labor’s decision to abolish the upper house, arguably unbeknown at the time, has provided dividends.

  36. Mike, I rather resent the suggestion that my blog is a pro-Labor equivalent of Menzies House. Evidently the Dave Sharma campaign has taken out advertising with Google Ads, though I haven’t seen one myself. They might appear because they’re being triggered by the mentions on the site of the Wentworth by-election; because this blog is identified as part of a category of websites they have chosen to target (Australian politics, for instance); or because of your Google search history. If you don’t wish to see a given ad, you can click on the cross at the top right and select “stop seeing this ad”.

  38. Absolutely appalling the Phelps email shit.

    Just shows how ignorant these pricks are, what was the rate of HIV amongst Lesbians?

    The final line of the ABC piece on it sparked my interest.

    A spokesman for Mr Sharma said the candidate did not wish to comment.

    Why the hell not?

    All they had to say was, WTTE, that they deplore this sort of behaviour and it had no place in the campaign.

    Now, rightly or wrongly, it asks the question,

    What have they got to hide?

    Is there a connection?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-17/wentworth-by-election-fake-email-claims-kerryn-phelps-has-hiv/10382406

  39. Abbott looked competent compared to this lot because he had things to dismantle.

    They’ve run out of things to bugger up, they’re basically trying to burn the ashes of good government.

  40. I assume that the ads are personally tailored.

    I was assuming it was loosely geographically targeted (without having any reference point) – I’m quite close to Wentworth so it would make sense that I would get them, but maybe it’s not even as targeted as that.

    Other than that, if there is any more matching being done it’s probably as basic as “this is a political message from a guy called Sharma, and this is a political blog that talks about this Sharma guy, so …”.

    I strongly doubt that google has concluded I’m a wayward Liberal supporter who needs to be brought back to the fold, but who knows what the AI is thinking…

  41. You might get Liberal ads if you have Googled or check Liberal sites or those of Liberal candidates. If I look up a location, I get ads for real estate, flights or holidays there.

  42. ‘Sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, October 17, 2018 at 8:26 pm

    #BREAKING: Agriculture Minister David Littleproud has told Sky News he will not run for the leadership of the Nationals. He has also claimed there is ‘no chance’ of a Nationals leadership contest.’

    So, Littleproud has taken a break from giving the duopoly flogging to announce that he will not run for something that will not happen.

  45. ABC “balance” at work – currently in the top stories list:

    Opinion: Shifting the Australian embassy in Israel to Jerusalem would be a big, cynical mistake

    Opinion: Moving the Australian embassy to Jerusalem makes sense: Here’s why

  46. ItzaDream @ #2383 Wednesday, October 17th, 2018 – 4:31 pm

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_0pNHk5nTwM/W8cA_fDGaoI/AAAAAAAAGtU/Kyz_DqGVRGknOFlAoQwF9kSJnvjj6bc5wCLcBGAs/s1600/fullsizeoutput_330e.jpeg

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hr5MZlq30hg/W8cBJygV7XI/AAAAAAAAGtY/nn9AYX9CmLc4z73RTzqlIYv3eafZd_9sACLcBGAs/s1600/fullsizeoutput_3311.jpeg

    A hung parliament would mean greater uncertainty because …

    we have enough trouble trying to work with ourselves, so we would have virtually zero chance of working effectively with those outside the Party. 🙂

  47. A spokesman for Mr Sharma said the candidate did not wish to comment.

    He’s probably recalling that now-infamous Jackie Kelly interview with Chris Uhlmann when she was caught up in a fake pamphlet scandal.

    Pretty weak though.

  48. BK

    It has been quite a progression has it not ? Each episode made you think that the nadir has been reached but each subsequent episode shows that you were wRONg. The one after Scotty will be truly epic.

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