BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor

No real change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, except that there is now a Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trend in business.

BludgerTrack has been updated with the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, together with the state breakdowns published earlier this week by Ipsos. This yields only the tiniest change on voting intention, and no change whatsoever on the seat projection.

I’ve also made my first effort to reactivate the leadership ratings, which have been dormant since Malcolm Turnbull’s because there has been insufficient data to generate a trend measure for Scott Morrison. This is still the case with his net approval ratings, for which there are only five data points, but there have been two extra points for the preferred prime minister question, which makes all the difference.

As such, the leadership ratings trends available through the full BludgerTrack display (click below) show separate trend measures on the preferred prime minister chart for the Turnbull-versus-Shorten and Morrison-versus-Shorten eras. This demonstrates that Morrison’s lead over Shorten is more or less the same as Turnbull’s was. I have also finally updated Bill Shorten’s net approval trend, which suggests a very slight improvement since the Liberal leadership change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,373 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor”

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  1. Why is that guy on the front page of the SMH tickling Dr Phelps bum?

    According to the article it couldn’t have been an attempt to prevent her from falling off her bike.

  5. Of late chez KayJay we have had quite a few gorgeous little birds zooming about. In and out of the shed, around and about the house.

    The photo taken today as I was waving off my daughter, granddaughter, grandson and two great grand daughters was with my mobile phone. I will try to do better tomorrow with a proper camera.

    Among my many non accomplishments is a knowledge of birds.

    I think these crittters are swallows.

    I am very pleased that they seem to like dive bombing me.

    Help please.

  6. poroti:

    Trump is nothing like any previous Potus in the modern era, most especially, arguably in the area of international affairs.

  10. KJ
    Welcome Swallows.
    ‘Welcome’ because they are harbingers of Spring.
    They are the ones that build a mud nest under the eaves of buildings.

  11. Late Riser @ #1307 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 6:36 pm

    KayJay, I believe in popular mythology they are the bird of true love.

    I am quite happy with whatever you like to post. So, my friend a little more on the subject.

    What is true love?

    True love is when you love that person for who they are, faults and all, you put that person’s happiness before your own even if it breaks your own heart. When it’s true love, it’s not “out of sight out of mind.” When it is true love, just because you may not be with that person or get to talk to them very much, you still love them no matter what. True love cannot be turned off and on. It is either present or it isn’t. If it’s true love, you cannot make it go away. If it’s not true love, you cannot force yourself into it.It happens or it doesn’t.

    ANNE MURRAY – TRUE LOVE 1993

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfDLwNv_Puw

  13. Poroti,
    “The 14, and counting, dead in our ‘gulags ‘ will be so grateful they did not die at sea ”
    I believe the government’s refugee policy is termed ‘Compassionate Sadism’.

  14. Ah, in the old biz* I was in, re-framing was the second step. First is re-naming, then re-framing, then re-structuring.
    * family therapy.e.g. to daughter about father “If he didn’t get so upset (for angry) about you staying out late, how would you know he loved you?” That’s step 1 & 2. The re-structure follows as a repeat of the pre-existing scenario in real life, is unlikely to occur.

  17. George Lakoff the cognitive linguist is the leading theoretician on the roles of framing, metaphors, and narratives in how we understand reality.

    A key point is that leading with facts doesn’t help.

    You need to lead with a narrative claim.

    Follow with relevant facts that fit the narrative.

    Reiterate the narrative claim.

    When responding to your opponents, Lakoff recommends a “truth sandwich” strategy:

    1. Lead with your truth.

    2. Acknowledge (but don’t amplify) the spin of your opponents.

    3. Restate your truth.

    Your opponent’s spin needs to be sandwiched between your truth. Otherwise you end up reinforcing your opponents’ framing of the issue.

    Here is economist Bill Mitchell’s example of a progressive truth sandwich about Brexit:

    1. The EU is an anti-democratic, corporatist structure that privileges neoliberal policies that advance the interests of the few at the expense of the many. No progressive state will benefit from membership. Brexit provides progressive forces in Britain with unfettered space to develop truly innovative policies based on a recognition of the fiscal capacity that the British government has as a currency-issuer. Whether they are competent enough to exploit that space remains to be seen. Brexit will not help Britain if the Tories retain power indefinitely and continue their austerity-bias (“Start with the truth”).

    2. Brexit will be disastrous – there will be massive income losses, trade will evaporate, planes will stop flying, the Premier League will not be able to recruit players, cancer incidence will rise, and all the rest of it (“Note attempt to divert truth”).

    3. Staying in the EU is not conducive to a full democracy because the European Court of Justice can overrule British legislation. A free trade agreement struck between the EU and somewhere else with investor dispute mechanisms in-built could easily privilege corporations over government policy aimed at benefitting the many not the few. As a currency-issuer, the British government can prevent any income losses arising from non-government sector spending shifts. The loss of the unproductive financial sector (which will not happen anyway) is hardly a loss. The Premier League will continue and the planes will continue to fly (“Return to the truth the lie is designed to hide”).

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=39644

  18. The SMH article says this:

    “When independent candidate for Wentworth Kerryn Phelps climbed on a penny-farthing bicycle at a street fair in Rose Bay on Sunday, she pulled off the perfect political metaphor. No wobble.”

    But the accompanying photo shows someone holding her steady. The journo must think we are stupid, or she is.

  19. On the previous page there was a reference that a local rabbi had told congregation members to vote for Phelps.

    I’d be interested to see the basis for this claim. So far, the only reference to what a rabbi has said about the Wentworth by-election is this:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/vote-to-protect-creation-rabbi-s-plea-to-wentworth-voters-20181012-p5097j.html

    Which I think most here would agree with, whether you regarded this planet as a creation of god or something else.

  20. KJ
    They like nesting in sheds so they might actually be building/nesting in your shed now.
    Two do nots:
    (1) Do not park car underneath…
    (2) Do not shut the shed door when they are either outside or inside…

  21. Boerwar @ #1320 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 6:57 pm

    KJ
    They like nesting in sheds so they might actually be building/nesting in your shed now.
    Two do nots:
    (1) Do not park car underneath…
    (2) Do not shut the shed door when they are either outside or inside…

    Thanks. I gave my car to my favourite daughter. I guess I will now trek out to open the shed door.

    🦉Wise old owl. Who the hell could that be ❓

  23. William Bowe

    Yes I do. Did they give a shit about what the Saudis are doing to Yemen ? Did they give a shit about Saudi financing and promoting Wahabi loons around the world ? They only ‘care’ now because the POTUS is Agent Orange.

  24. KJ
    A lifetime ago a school mate invited me out to East Sale RAAF base. There was something like a U2 parked on the tarmac.
    In those less-sophisticated days there was no problem with a couple of school kids wandering out and having a close look.
    Welcome Swallows were building a nest under the wing…

  26. Hello from Rovaniemi, Finland, just outside the Artic Circle.

    Thanks to the wonders of the Internet I managed to catch Insiders a little while ago. It was a pretty uncontroversial episode, even Nikki showed her progressive side at times.

  28. bc
    Two questions:
    (1) Is global warming evident where you are? Or, do the locals reckon it is happening?
    (2) Have the bark beetles escaped from the reservation where you are?

  29. Boerwar
    Did the Welcome Swallows dive bomb you and your mate? (I know nothing about them as I can’t recognise them from around here.)

  30. Where the concern over Labor’s prospects come from, as ever, is media bias

    So the impact of Stokes and Murdoch who decree who the pm will be and Costello – and now a cowered ABC

    Today by way of example we have seen Shorten match the Andrews $300- Million to the scoping works for a rail facility, reported on 9 then followed by Guy (whatever his real name is?) mocking the project

    Then, later, extensive coverage is given to Guy promoting recycled books in the education system funded by government to the tune of $250- a year per student – then bringing the books back for usage the next year (in what state, if returned?)

    Whilst this article dragged on and on there was no response from Labor – unlike when a proposal by Andrews is given coverage and the Opposition then mocks

    It reminds me of days when I knew a bit more of media – and the given for political bias was to have cut aways to the interviewer nodding at the answer – and the coverage was so pieced together

    These are the tactics of media

    Then in “The Age” they refer to an “expert” raising question and where you read later that this “expert” was involved in the East/West Link

    The East/West Link was the last minute knee jerk project when polling in the shadows of an election showed that the government was viewed as a “do nothing” government facing defeat

    And it became the source of that election being presented by the Liberals as a referendum on the project – which the government lost leaving behind the unknown side letters

    So “The Age” locate and refer to one “expert” and guess what?

    The media also retain lists of “go to” personnel for comment hence the same facts we see and hear from – and they are “go to” because of political affiliations

    Some, like Eslake, have falling outs and change their responses accordingly to unbiased – but they are the exception

    Most know what side their bread is buttered

    And that is what Labor is up against – as always except that now the ABC is cowered in its presentations

    At the end of the day media is dominated by Stokes, Murdoch and now Costello (including Fairfax)

  31. Socrates @ #1295 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 5:17 pm

    I think Trump’s quote that he would punish Saudi Arabia IF there was evidence they killed Khashoggi is a fake threat.

    Or foreshadowing. His next comment will be “they say they didn’t do it, so there’s nothing I can do”. Kind of like with Russia, on election hacking. Or with Russia, on shooting down a civilian airliner. Or with Russia, on trying to assassinate civilians in the UK.

  32. poroti:

    Khashoggi wrote for US msm and has. Do you really think the only reason US media are up in arms about his capture, torture and murder is because Trump is Potus? Even the highly pro-Trump outlet Fox News has reported on his disappearance.

  34. Boerwar @ #1324 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 7:04 pm

    KJ
    A lifetime ago a school mate invited me out to East Sale RAAF base. There was something like a U2 parked on the tarmac.
    In those less-sophisticated days there was no problem with a couple of school kids wandering out and having a close look.
    Welcome Swallows were building a nest under the wing…

    Jeez. East Sale. My understanding (or not) was that if one were posted there the options were, go AWL, pretend insanity – dammit too late – here they come with the straight jacket.
    If you promise not to tell anybody. I may have been a very bad military person. Canberra bomb aimer seats were very comfortable on guard duty at Amberley.

    It’s just about my TV and bed time again. 📺🛌

    —————————————————————

    The swallows this afternoon were zooming about the yard and house. None of the visitors seemed to notice them. I am hoping for the return of a couple of Kingfisher type birds from a couple of seasons ago. They, and the swallows, seem to like my rotary clothes line.

  35. Hi HSO
    I was responding to a bird ID question from KJ.
    Welcome Swallows have a low critical distance. This means that they will allow quite a close approach by humans and they will fly quite close to humans when hawking for insects.
    They do not swoop humans with defensive or offensive intent.
    When there are nestlings in the nest it is an excellent idea not to stand under the nest. This is not personal. It is a matter of nest hygiene.
    It is a commonplace that clearing destroys nest sites like hollows so many Aussie species have a real estate problem.
    But our built environment – eaves, sheds, culverts and bridges – provide a cornucopia of nest sites for Welcome Swallows. Their use of vertical services beyond cat leap height means that they are safe from the most likely urban predator.

  36. KJ
    It was flat and featureless.
    The Roulettes were/are based there.
    I would have thought that cramp would have been the direct result of a prolonged kip in any Canberra seat.

  39. $11 billion.
    Hmm… DVA spends $11 billion on vets? A year? Over a Budget cycle? Over Forward Estimates.
    I wonder whether they bury that one under Social Security spending rather than under the Defence Budget.

  40. Sorry, I omitted to acknowledge Harry “Snapper” Organs for bringing it to my attention. You’re quite correct about the overture, Harry. Thank you.

  41. Did they give a shit about what the Saudis are doing to Yemen ? Did they give a shit about Saudi financing and promoting Wahabi loons around the world ?

    Major US media outlets ran columns on these subjects that so enraged the Saudis that they murdered the person who wrote them.

  46. William Bowe @ #1339 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 7:27 pm

    Did they give a shit about what the Saudis are doing to Yemen ? Did they give a shit about Saudi financing and promoting Wahabi loons around the world ?

    Major US media outlets ran columns on these subjects that so enraged the Saudis that they murdered the person who wrote them.

    And they still are:

    Each year, Saudi Arabia employs, through consultants or otherwise, a host of retired American generals, diplomats, intelligence experts and others. Until now, they could assure themselves this was a win-win: lucrative for them, to be sure, but also enhancing mutual understanding with an important U.S. ally.

    Now, as more and more evidence implicates Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in the reported murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi on Saudi diplomatic property in Istanbul, the equation has changed.

    So how might, say, a retired Air Force colonel explain his work when his daughter asks, “Daddy, why do you work for a murderer?”

    “Well, it helps to pay your future college tuition,” he might answer. “And besides, I finally get to fly business class. Riyadh is no picnic, but they always spring for a couple of nights in a five-star hotel in London or Abu Dhabi on the way over and the way back. . . . And if I don’t do it, someone else will.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/are-we-willing-to-sacrifice-our-moral-standing-for-this/2018/10/12/baf7bff6-ce42-11e8-a3e6-44daa3d35ede_story.html?utm_term=.448082380d9f

    Can’t see one mention of Donald Trump there.

  47. Boerwar
    Thanks for that info. about the Swallows because I was following your conversation with KayJay. We’re slowly building a picture of our local birds that range from small honey eaters to cockatoos, galahs and eagles.
    We’re quite high up and get fantastic views of the eagles.

  49. TPOF @ #1319 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 6:55 pm

    On the previous page there was a reference that a local rabbi had told congregation members to vote for Phelps.

    I’d be interested to see the basis for this claim. So far, the only reference to what a rabbi has said about the Wentworth by-election is this:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/vote-to-protect-creation-rabbi-s-plea-to-wentworth-voters-20181012-p5097j.html

    Which I think most here would agree with, whether you regarded this planet as a creation of god or something else.

    I don’t think the rabbi had to spell it out TPOF. He was clearly saying don’t vote for the Libs. And without a recommendation, which he wouldn’t do publicly, Phelps is the obvious choice . She is running hard on climate policy (lack of meaningful existing), and she is the only Jewish candidate in the race, and the Strickers, her in-laws, well established in the community.

    And Rabbi Kamins married Phelps and Stricker at Temple Emmanuel

    https://www.jewishnews.net.au/emanuel-makes-history-sex-wedding/72849
    (photo of the Rabbi and the happy couple incl)

    The community will have whatever spread it has (I’ve one Jewish friend who is committed to Labor) but I read it as a clear Vote Phelps call.

  50. Late Riser says:
    Sunday, October 14, 2018 at 7:17 pm
    An unimportant but genuine question: Why is Alan Jones affectionately known as The Parrot? (Google was not helpful.)

    ____________________________
    From wikipedia:

    It was while coaching Balmain that Jones was dubbed with his best known nickname, the ‘Parrot’, by comedian Greig Pickhaver in his role as sports commentator H.G. Nelson, although Jones has never approved of the name.

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