BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor

No real change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, except that there is now a Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trend in business.

BludgerTrack has been updated with the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, together with the state breakdowns published earlier this week by Ipsos. This yields only the tiniest change on voting intention, and no change whatsoever on the seat projection.

I’ve also made my first effort to reactivate the leadership ratings, which have been dormant since Malcolm Turnbull’s because there has been insufficient data to generate a trend measure for Scott Morrison. This is still the case with his net approval ratings, for which there are only five data points, but there have been two extra points for the preferred prime minister question, which makes all the difference.

As such, the leadership ratings trends available through the full BludgerTrack display (click below) show separate trend measures on the preferred prime minister chart for the Turnbull-versus-Shorten and Morrison-versus-Shorten eras. This demonstrates that Morrison’s lead over Shorten is more or less the same as Turnbull’s was. I have also finally updated Bill Shorten’s net approval trend, which suggests a very slight improvement since the Liberal leadership change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,373 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor”

  1. jeffemu remains unchanged although I have had a shower the other day.

    My assumption is still 54 to the good guys and 46 to the shouties.

  2. Steve777 says:
    Sunday, October 14, 2018 at 3:05 pm
    Re Michael @2:36PM. Bill Shorten is being judicious in his choice of the word ‘mischievous’. What he means is ‘untruthful’ or ‘deliberately deceptive’.

    As Bill says, Scott Morrison will still be PM if the Liberals lose Wentworth. He could have added “as long as the Liberals don’t decide to change leaders again”.
    —————————————

    Yes. The nuance of Bill Shorten’s communication is very calibrated. Much more impressive than most in the media give him credit for.

    There is a lot of chutzpah in Morrison’s message here. There would be no instability in the Government if it weren’t for their own reckless self-indulgence. So, they point the blame everywhere else but themselves.

  3. musical recommendations: can’t link it but google should work; The diggers requiem. I’ve not listened to all of it only the overture. The requiem is unusual in that different parts were composed by different composers and it’s to commemorate 100 years since the armistice.
    The overture is one of the most moving pieces of music I’ve heard in a long time as well as being highly innovative.

  4. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, October 14, 2018 at 4:04 pm
    Ven,
    Kerryn Phelps and her partner are Jewish. The local Rabbi recommended the electorate vote for her.

    My view is that we’re all much better served when clerics stay out of politics.

  5. Presumably the Young Liberals are also involved:

    NSW Nationals MP Troy Grant has come out saying his party was not a “safe harbour for people with outrageous views”, responding to revelations that alt-right nationalists have been attempting to stack the NSW Young Nationals.

    The organisation has temporarily suspended processing new NSW Young Nationals memberships, after an ABC Background Briefing investigation detailed the alt-right infiltration of the party by self-described fascists.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-14/nsw-young-nats-suspend-memberships-amid-alt-right-infiltration/10375014

  6. Sprocket
    I’d just finished listening to the overture to The Diggers Requiem, tears welling up and you post AJ’s faves and the pollywaffle cartoon, ROFLOL

  7. NSW Nationals MP Troy Grant has come out saying his party was not a “safe harbour for people with outrageous views”,

    What is he talking about? The Nationals are the perfect party for anyone with outrageous views.

    After all, what’s more outrageous than dumping your wife of many years because you were having an affair with, and knocked up a young staff member in your office, and then going on to rub your wife’s and daughters’ faces in your treachery by treating them and the country to an orchestrated public PR campaign with your new partner, finishing by gloating that she has finally given you the son you always wanted?

  8. It is a wet weekend in my part of the world, so I’m reading this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2018/oct/13/dear-progressives-craig-kelly-abbott-and-trump-are-making-you-their-stooge

    The article makes the proposition that extreme right wing views are expressed in order to generate outrage and so doing makes the outrageous memorable. Rational refutation (presumably by centre and left) legitimises the discussion, which is the original intent since once the argument is ‘over’ only the original emotive view will linger. The Overton Window will have shifted. The article points to anti-vaccination arguments as an example of how this has worked. We are mugs to engage. The author asks progressives to refute without engaging, but it is not clear how that might be done.

    Scorn?

  9. on a more serious note, this Saudi murder has geopolitical implications. This insight worth reading

    The storm began to rip up certainties, all the way along Pennsylvania Avenue: that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, from whose personal bodyguard some of the 15 assassins were drawn, was “our man”. “We’ve put our man on top!” Trump told his friends, as Michael Wolff reported in his book Fire and Fury earlier this year.

    Gone too is the bromance that Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and White House aide, started with bin Salman, the meetings which lasted until 4am, swapping stories, planning strategies (MBS told confidants that Kushner had discussed the names of Saudis disloyal to the crown prince, although Kushner’s spokesman denied having done so).

    The constant in-your-face, up-front support Trump has given the crown prince since he was installed is now an embarrassment, in addition to the ceaseless and shameless write-ups the Saudi crown prince got in the US media as a young reformer.

    All this has been blown away in one night, and the wreckage is everywhere. The US media are outraged. Karen Attiah, Khashoggi’s editor on the Washington Post tweeted: “Enough of the west’s fawning over Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.””

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/jamal-khashoggi-trump-mohammed-bin-salman-erdogan-1891059956

  10. Late Riser
    Thanks. The article encapsulates the points I have been making about Left rage – the Right wants the rage and the rage feeds the Maw of the Moloch.

    #Don’tgetangry;getinfrontonPB.

  11. What is he talking about? The Nationals are the perfect party for anyone with outrageous views.

    He’s saying the Nats aren’t a ‘safe harbour’ for these sorts of arseholes to come in from the outside. They have a perfectly functional in house production line.

  12. While the Liberals are constantly raving on about “African gangs”, Chinese firms backed by their government, are making a motza in Africa.

    This CNN article tells the story of a Chinese smartphone maker that sells nothing in China but has captured a large share of the market in Africa by tailoring their phones to local consumer requirements.

    It’s all helped by aggressive moves by the Chinese government to invest in infrastructure across the continent (albeit criticised as leading some countries into a debt trap and Chinese exploitation of African resources).

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/10/tech/tecno-phones-africa/index.html

  13. sprocket_

    The US media are outraged.

    Fcuk the US media and the horse it rode in on. They have deliberately ignored for decades far worse shit than this from the Saudis. If the US president was not Trump they would not give a shit.

    True story. The , apparently dead, journo was the nephew of mega arms dealer of old Adnan Khashoggi , with bonus fun fact he was a cousin of Dodi Fayed.

  14. Yes, well – the Right strategy is working so well that they’re losing almost every position they’ve put forward, same sex marriage has been legalised with a thumping endorsement from the community, and the party they supposedly support looks like being kicked out.

    I’d say the Lefty outrage is winning.

  15. BW@5:14pm
    Why should I think about it? I did not know there was a feud in the first place. Why do I care if it ends? BTW it was fergie who got the rough end of the stick even though a big toe is chewed while Sir Philip (he is not Prince Philip as per OZ standards after Abbott gave knighthood to him) kept saying things which did not make sense. 🙂

    I looks like I thought a lot about it in the end and I blame BW for that. 🙂 🙂

  16. Glad to hear Federal Labor support the plan for a Melbourne rail ring today. The process and secrecy have been less than ideal but the logiv is sound. It will be badly needed long before it is finished.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/hundreds-of-millions-more-to-plan-rail-loop-but-not-all-on-board-20181014-p509kz.html

    However this highlights that national policy and commitment are needed to improve both our land use and transport planning. We are building very large cities that may become very unpleasant places to live when nobody can commute to work or study in less than an hour. This article suggests we could do worse than look at the Canadian approach.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/mebourne-can-thrive-as-a-city-of-8-million-but-20181013-p509h7.html

  17. Poroti@5:46pm
    Khashoggi sounded familiar. That Adnan was really a notorious guy. He got arms from US and UK and sold them to dictators and terrorists.

  18. zoomster

    Culture wars are a distraction from the robbery and theft of the ‘plutocrats’. Fluff compared to the main game of screwing the peasantry.

  19. Further to the above, while I am not happy with the current state of Australian city planning, the Liberal suggestion that they can control the location of immigration to solve it is a joke. Name one functional democracy that has succeeded at doing that? Do they suggest national ID cards?

    In fact, if as expected climate change makes several million more Asians and Pacific islanders homeless this century, our immigration challenge will only increase.

  20. zoomster @ #1276 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 4:46 pm

    Yes, well – the Right strategy is working so well that they’re losing almost every position they’ve put forward, same sex marriage has been legalised with a thumping endorsement from the community, and the party they supposedly support looks like being kicked out.

    I’d say the Lefty outrage is winning.

    Yeah, that. Lefty outrage is about to kick the Republicans out of the House. A slight bit more of it in 2016 could have stopped Trump from becoming president in the first place.

    The right may want a fight, but even more than that they want the left to roll over and leave them alone. Of the two options, it’s better to bring the fight.

    poroti @ #1275 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 4:46 pm

    The , apparently dead, journo was the nephew of mega arms dealer of old Adnan Khashoggi , with bonus fun fact he was a cousin of Dodi Fayed.

    Objection, relevance. The point of the story is that he was murdered and chopped into pieces. Hopefully but not necessarily in that order.

  21. Ven

    Not forgetting his uber yachts.

    Adnan Khashoggi: the ‘whoremonger’ whose arms deals funded a playboy life of decadence and ‘pleasure wives’

    ……………..By 1980, he could afford Nabila, named after his daughter, 281ft (86.6 metres) long, the largest private yacht in the world at the time, on which it is said Khashoggi “lavished money with utter abandon”: sundeck with bullet-proof glass, solid gold sink in the master suite.

    They didn’t just use any old onyx in the bathrooms of the chamois leather-lined cabins. It was hand carved onyx, sculpted by “the finest craftsman from the hills of Italy,” as described by the next owner, Donald Trump, who in 1987 bought her for nearly $30m.

    Never one to miss an opportunity to flaunt his wealth, Khashoggi let his yacht be used for the 1983 Bond film Never Say Never Again. It appeared as the floating HQ of international supervillain, SPECTRE agent Maximillian Largo.

    That, of course, was fiction.

    The reality, though, was almost as exotic.
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/adnan-khashoggi-dead-saudi-arms-dealer-playboy-pleasure-wives-billionaire-lifestyle-wealth-profit-a7778031.html

  22. it always amazes me that of all the countries in the world Donald Trump could have made his first trip as President, he chose Saudi Arabia.

  23. Rational refutation (presumably by centre and left) legitimises the discussion, which is the original intent since once the argument is ‘over’ only the original emotive view will linger.

    Yup, this is the essence of the strategy of framing.

    You can’t counter framing by refuting it, because you’re (a) accepting the general form of the argument as presented by your opponents and legitimizing it; (b) the framed discussion is generally one designed to provoke emotions that are not going to be countered in the minds of the target audience by facts/rationality; and worst of all (c) by reacting to your opponents’ framing you effectively repeat and reinforce their emotive framing to their benefit.

    As I understand it the people who analyze how framing is done suggest that it is countered by basically ignoring your opponents’ framing and creating your own.

    This was covered in this article (that was linked by some helpful soul on PB) that was published to make sense of Trump’s win, but it’s clearly a more general communication strategy:

    In general, negating a frame just activates the frame and makes it stronger. I wrote a book called “Don’t Think of an Elephant!” to make that point. Liberals are often caught in this trap. If a conservative says, “we should have tax relief,” she is using the metaphor that taxation is an affliction that we need relief from. If a liberal replies, “No, we don’t need tax relief,” she is accepting the idea that taxation is an affliction. The first thing that is, or should be, taught about political language is not to repeat the language of the other side or negate their framing of the issue.

    https://georgelakoff.com/2016/11/22/a-minority-president-why-the-polls-failed-and-what-the-majority-can-do/

  24. sprocket_ @ #1290 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 3:03 pm

    it always amazes me that of all the countries in the world Donald Trump could have made his first trip as President, he chose Saudi Arabia.

    It still amazes me that as leader of a supposed democratic nation he still has open and very public bromances with authoritarian dictator type leaders of nations which are the antithesis of democracies!

  25. I heard about Alt-rightists plans to infiltrate major political parties on the ABC News. Three who joined the Young Nationals were asked to leave.

    On the other hand, I expect that those who joined the Young Liberals or Liberal Party branches probably went under the radar, having fitted right in.

  26. Sprocket
    I think Trump’s quote that he would punish Saudi Arabia IF there was evidence they killed Khashoggi is a fake threat. He had already been briefed they killed him, and would have known there is audio evidence, but that the Saudis disposed of the physical evidence. He has no intention of doing anything. Trump and Salman are both despots.

  27. Fulvio Sammut gets the prize (many happy thoughts) for supplying the 50th guess.

    PB Newspoll-Poll 2018-10-14
    PB mean: ALP 53.4 to 46.6 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 50

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