BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor

No real change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, except that there is now a Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trend in business.

BludgerTrack has been updated with the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, together with the state breakdowns published earlier this week by Ipsos. This yields only the tiniest change on voting intention, and no change whatsoever on the seat projection.

I’ve also made my first effort to reactivate the leadership ratings, which have been dormant since Malcolm Turnbull’s because there has been insufficient data to generate a trend measure for Scott Morrison. This is still the case with his net approval ratings, for which there are only five data points, but there have been two extra points for the preferred prime minister question, which makes all the difference.

As such, the leadership ratings trends available through the full BludgerTrack display (click below) show separate trend measures on the preferred prime minister chart for the Turnbull-versus-Shorten and Morrison-versus-Shorten eras. This demonstrates that Morrison’s lead over Shorten is more or less the same as Turnbull’s was. I have also finally updated Bill Shorten’s net approval trend, which suggests a very slight improvement since the Liberal leadership change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,373 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor”

  1. Ratsak @11:47 “Shorten has been incredibly judicious in picking his fights. Many on the ‘left’ see that as weakness or same-sameyness, but it’s Sun Tzu. He knows he can’t do much at all as opposition leader. He has to win.”

    I think that Ratsak is absolutely right in his assessment.

  2. Malinauskas’ philosophy for the Labor Party.

    “I don’t believe we are an environmental party, a socially liberal party or a party for minorities, although each of those things are important,” he said.

    “I believe that first and foremost we are an economic party. We in Labor believe we must have a growing economy in order to be able to deliver a fair society. We believe that growing prosperity should deliver for everyone, not necessarily in the same proportion, but at the very least, a fair one.”

    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/mp-nat-cook-urges-alp-state-conference-to-legalise-pill-testing-at-music-festivals/news-story/fe74250843d60efa6427b112669eeeab

  3. We are ruled by idiots. My local council is planning “a cultural space with the potential to trigger outdoor activations.” WTF does that mean ?

    They are creating a local place to hold outdoor arts and cultural activities/programs.

  4. adrian, Ah I think you’ve put a finger on why I dropped so many guesses. I had you down for 60/40 last week but started a new round yesterday. I’ve put you down for 60/40 again for tonight. 🙂

    To anyone who put in a guess last week, this is a new Poll-Poll. If you would like to add your guesses this week please let me know. This is the list of posters for whom I have a guess last week, but not this week.
    Andrew_Earlwood
    Asha Leu
    ausdavo
    autocrat
    bilko
    Cud Chewer
    Dan Gulberry
    Darc
    Fulvio Sammut
    Gareth
    Gecko
    Golly
    Gorks
    jeffemu
    Lynchpin
    Matt
    meher baba
    Mr Ed
    poroti
    Quasar
    Tristo

  5. That thread is a hoot:

    Tesla Preston Fitzgerald Charts Jnr
    @SinePogel

    Replying to @MikeCarlton01
    The Everest projection would be classified as an outdoor activation I’m sorry to report

    Mike Carlton‏
    @MikeCarlton01
    So would the firebombing of Dresden…

    Andrew P Street
    @AndrewPStreet
    I think technically that was an interactive community initiative.

    David Morgan‏
    @Elitism
    A unique and exciting urban redevelopment project.

    And so it goes.

  6. Confessions. We have defribs but they are all indoors and so if the buildings are locked up usually at night,you have to find the keyholder of the building to access it.Outdoor ones save that time for the person that needs the help.The councillors are pushing hard against having one.

  7. RE, the winner of the Everest and his sire, Snitzel. Follow the money.

    I see Snitzel’s stud fee has gone up from $176k to $220k per mating, after Snitzel’s progeny came first and second in the Everest horse race. I can find reports that Alan Jones owns a 4% share of Snitzel’s sire, Redoute’s Choice. (Stud fee $137k)

    Both sires stand at Arrowfield Stud, reportedly owned by a mate of Jones. I can’t find who is in the syndicate that owns Snitzel but reports that Jones is part of it could be accurate.)

    https://www.breednet.com.au/sire/snitzel
    https://www.breednet.com.au/sire/redoute's-choice

    Jones was a part-owner of super stallion Redoute’s Choice along with Jones’ great mate John Messara, who owns Arrowfield stud in the Hunter Valley.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/you-should-be-running-everything said-broadcaster-alan-jones-of-now-disgraced-minister-ian-macdonald-20170526-gwe34v.html

    And the connection to the Liberal Party?
    For example:
    During the outbreak of Hendra Virus in the breeding season.

    Jones asked the then Minister to change the way and where breeding horses were allowed to be transported during the Hendra Virus crisis. (Remember, people died of Hendra Virus contracted from horses. Quarantine and containment were important parts of the response to this easily spread virus.)

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/you-should-be-running-everything-said-broadcaster-alan-jones-of-now-disgraced-minister-ian-macdonald-20170526-gwe34v.html

    Meanwhile, small business horse trainers and the owners of the horses they train are scratching for decent prize-money, racing clubs to keep facilities upgraded and the industry to attract, train and support the workers needed. Nearly everything done to keep horses of all sorts in their activities is done by human hands. The top end of the racing town does not need more money, more flashy events or more exclusive privileges. The base needs maintenance if only racing can get past the greed and disgusting self-entitlement that is heralding its popular decline.

  8. steve davis:

    I believe St John Ambulance installed the outdoor one we have. All the rest are in shops or public or private buildings, but the council supports the program.

  9. steve davis @ #1212 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 1:51 pm

    Anyone have any ideas to get the council to change their minds?

    Our Council finally gave one to the local Surf Club, if that’s any help. Are you coastal, or inland? If inland, then there is usually a local residents group who may wish to agree to learn how to use the Defib and then create a roster to be strictly adhered to so there can be someone on call 24/7 to use it.

  10. “Some note that the whole [OperaHorseGate] hoo-ha shows our politicians no longer work for us but for Big Money.

    True but, dangerous as that is, the collusion goes yet deeper. For somehow we have swallowed the idea that Big Money loves the Little Guy, so that opposing the commercial juggernaut in any way is itself elitist. This is blindingly dangerous. It’s feudalism. It’s Trump-land, and it’s here.”

    From yesterday’s SMH, Elizabeth Farrally’s take on last week’s kerfuffle. Probably linked earlier by BK. If so, still worth repeating.

  11. Alan Jones is just a talentless twat that is only about himself.
    Hopefully his incompetence within the Sydney Cricket Ground Trust ( along with the other trustees ) will get some good exposure in the coming months

  12. Sceptic @ #1225 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 1:47 pm

    Alan Jones is just a talentless twat that is only about himself.
    Hopefully his incompetence within the Sydney Cricket Ground Trust ( along with the other trustees ) will get some good exposure in the coming months

    Yep,
    He sucks out more than he contributes. I wish his interest was ferret trouser racing, instead of horses.

  13. If we had AEDs outdoors here some bastard would steal it or vandalise it. We have some anti-social scumbags here. If they are well-off enough they run as Liebral candidates and dismantle whole health systems.

  14. Just on ‘activations’ as in ‘outdoor activations ’, when I first came across the use of this term I was flummoxed, and had to ask the guy with the salt ‘n pepa beard and man bun what he meant.

    In advertising and brand creation/management land you work out a campaign, road test it with the customer, make necessary adjustments, and then – when the time is right – activation.

    Activation is included as a stage in the accompanying PowerPoint.

  15. Puffytmd
    Early on the council cited that they could be vandalised but a letter from St Johns stated that none of the outdoor ones in Tasmania had ever been vandalised.Still made no difference to councils decision.

  16. Confessions @ #1228 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 2:30 pm

    C@t:

    Yes, the AEDs talk you through what to do. And in WA St John Ambos have a Community First Responder program that if your AED is registered with them, whenever someone rings 000 in a cardiac emergency, they will tell the caller the location of the nearest AED.

    https://stjohnwa.com.au/ambulance-and-health-services/community-first-responder

    In NSW every Rural Fire station and their vehicles has a AED

  17. This is interesting from Trump.
    “Trump indicated that he had not heard audio that reportedly records Khashoggi’s death, but said he expected he would “soon”. ”
    That makes it sound like Trump has been told the audio exists.

  18. Re Michael @2:36PM. Bill Shorten is being judicious in his choice of the word ‘mischievous’. What he means is ‘untruthful’ or ‘deliberately deceptive’.

    As Bill says, Scott Morrison will still be PM if the Liberals lose Wentworth. He could have added “as long as the Liberals don’t decide to change leaders again”.

  19. Hello Mari – please recommence posting. ❤

    I can see that I need to up my game. The characters should have been done in DayGlo fluorescent colours.

    Add a few streamers and balloons a la used car lots – et voila.

    Add a set of steak knives – parfait mesdames et messieurs.

    Perhaps a muppet or two.

  20. Give us the numbers on the various options and I’ll create a market for everyone.

    DTT has no chance because Newspoll doesn’t do percentage points.

    But, I’ll take her money.

  21. “adrian, Ah I think you’ve put a finger on why I dropped so many guesses. I had you down for 60/40 last week but started a new round yesterday. I’ve put you down for 60/40 again for tonight.

    To anyone who put in a guess last week, this is a new Poll-Poll. If you would like to add your guesses this week please let me know. This is the list of posters for whom I have a guess last week, but not this week.
    Andrew_Earlwood
    Asha Leu
    ausdavo
    autocrat
    bilko
    Cud Chewer
    Dan Gulberry
    Darc
    Fulvio Sammut
    Gareth
    Gecko
    Golly
    Gorks
    jeffemu
    Lynchpin
    Matt
    meher baba
    Mr Ed
    poroti
    Quasar
    Tristo”

    Confirming my 53-47 prediction from last week.

  22. They probably want to frack near horse properties. If he is supporting something, he will have an interest in it somewhere, I predict you will find. He is all ‘me, mine and I’ from head to manicured toenail.

    Rossmcg @ #1233 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 2:21 pm

    There was an interesting read on Jones in The Saturday Paper.

    Some causes he adopts are at odds with what we would expect.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/10/13/the-power-alan-jones/15393492006987

    I welcome his support on fracking, for instance, but wonder how he reconciles that with some of his other views.

    A complex character. What could he have achieved had he not decided that mean and nasty was the path to follow?

  23. I looked at an AED in a shopping centre and think there was a sign saying that opening its case triggered an alarm. Presumably that had two purposes – to ward off vandals and to alert others of an emergency situation.

    That sounds like a good solution for an AED in a public place.

  24. don says:
    Sunday, October 14, 2018 at 12:55 pm
    Aunt Mavis says:
    Sunday, October 14, 2018 at 12:08 pm
    [‘Newspoll prediction: ALP 51-49.’]

    I hope you’re wrong, Prof. Higgins. Yet even if you’re right, it still means around 41 Newspolls where the Tories have lost, plus countless Essential’s, ReachTel’s, etc.

    If I were a Labor strategist, I’d very impliedly remind the electorate that according to the Bible, the Earth’s only six thousand years old; whereas coal is some 300 million…

    _______________________

    You need to stock up on the Kool-Aid.

    They’ve got that figured out, coal only takes a matter of months to form, just ask them. There was a link a few days ago. The one below is similar:

    https://answersingenesis.org/biology/plants/how-did-we-get-all-this-coal/
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    I know what you mean Don.
    Years ago I had a shot at trying to convince a creationist that all us species really are related to each other and pointed out that advanced DNA testing proved that humans and chimps very definitely did have recent ancestry (about 5-6 million years back).
    I explained that just as such testing could prove she was the child of her parents, shared DNA showed how distantly we were all related.
    I also pointed out that if the universe was really only 6000-odd-years-old, radio telescopes would not be detecting cosmic data billions of light years away.
    It made no difference. She just mumbled something about how some scientists said something else and how physical resemblance did not imply being related.
    People’s delusions are sometimes too precious to let go of.

  25. C@tmomma@12:02pm
    In 1993 GST federal election, Libs won 8 seats in NSW which includes Wentworth and Bennelong. In 2007 Rudd election Libs lost Bennelong( sitting PM electorate) but still won Wentworth. Infact Libs or conservatives in earlier incarnation never lost that seat. Also, most jews who constitute 12% of the electorate vote Libs and they support Sharma.
    Take you for example, you always voted only for 1 party in all elections even in adverse conditions. More than 50% voters in Wentworth are like that. 🙂

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