BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor

No real change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, except that there is now a Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trend in business.

BludgerTrack has been updated with the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, together with the state breakdowns published earlier this week by Ipsos. This yields only the tiniest change on voting intention, and no change whatsoever on the seat projection.

I’ve also made my first effort to reactivate the leadership ratings, which have been dormant since Malcolm Turnbull’s because there has been insufficient data to generate a trend measure for Scott Morrison. This is still the case with his net approval ratings, for which there are only five data points, but there have been two extra points for the preferred prime minister question, which makes all the difference.

As such, the leadership ratings trends available through the full BludgerTrack display (click below) show separate trend measures on the preferred prime minister chart for the Turnbull-versus-Shorten and Morrison-versus-Shorten eras. This demonstrates that Morrison’s lead over Shorten is more or less the same as Turnbull’s was. I have also finally updated Bill Shorten’s net approval trend, which suggests a very slight improvement since the Liberal leadership change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,373 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor”

  1. 2. Many associated with / driving those vested interests must know the score. Mining uses science and depends upon it for their profits. I think that they see the cure (brakes on free-wheeling capitalism) as worse than the disease.

    Not to mention the latest wrinkle by the ‘She’ll be right, mate!’ crowd who are advocating engineering your way out of Global Warming trouble. Such as our own Coalition government who believe you can create a giant fan to ‘cool’ the Great Barrier reef down so it will survive.

    It’s cloud cuckoo land stuff.

  2. HaveAChat

    …I support the use of vaping as a quit smoking aid

    I totally agree, for people unable to give up smoking it is a fantastic thing. I don’t agree that it should be freely available to all though as it has the potential to lead to a new population of nicotine/vaping addicts.

  3. Ven,
    So you think the Liberals WILL win Wentworth, DESPITE all those things you list!?! Boy, do you have a lot of faith in the mindlessness of Wentworth voters!

  4. ratsak

    Peer Costello was mentioned on Insiders this morning. He handed Labor ammunition in its main war on combatting the myth of the LNP being good economic managers.

    I expect lots of questions by Labor on that in QT.

  5. Aunt Mavis @ #1148 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 11:57 am

    Ven:

    [‘Because he can & probably to convey the perception that AFP is under his total control in every which way.’]

    You’re probably right but I think there’s also another issue in play here.

    They are a manifestation of his deep insecurity about himself and the world he sees, with fear. All his actions are attack based on fear. He is very poorly evolved. And in good company.

  6. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ruddock-review-the-booby-trap-that-trips-everyone-up-before-backfiring-20181012-p50993.html

    Like I said, a magnificent example of Trumbellian stupidity.

    Morrison is a dolt. But also massively smarter than bloody Lucien Aye. If that moron was still around and the ‘lets ban the gay kiddies’ controversy was raging we’d still be listening to the bloviating fuckwit doing his best barrister explaining the nuances of the various laws and his proposed ‘strengthening’ of the provisions and slagging off all the lesser minds that couldn’t appreciate the beauty of his elegant solution.

    Scott at least had enough functioning brain cells that it only took 24 hours for him to work out he was holding a shit hand and folded.

  7. [‘Newspoll prediction: ALP 51-49.’]

    I hope you’re wrong, Prof. Higgins. Yet even if you’re right, it still means around 41 Newspolls where the Tories have lost, plus countless Essential’s, ReachTel’s, etc.

    If I were a Labor strategist, I’d very impliedly remind the electorate that according to the Bible, the Earth’s only six thousand years old; whereas coal is some 300 million…

  8. Aunt Mavis says:

    I can’t think why Dutton’s accompanied in public by AFP officers in civvies.

    Because there was a very negative reaction from the public when Dutton went out with them in uniform .

  9. Question @ #1143 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 11:52 am

    HaveAchat,

    And as a non-smoker, how do you feel being around vape rather than smoke? I have a few flavours my wife doesn’t like much. I imagine the coffee flavours have a strong smell.

    Not sure what happened to my response but I will try again, apologies if the other turns up and I do a double on you.

    In answer, to be honest I do not smell too much of anything in the vapour she exhales, plus of course she vapes in the garden or outside like she did with cigarettes. There are benefits of course, the first is that I don’t have an ashtray full of butts outside the back door, plus she is not spending nearly $60 for a packet of cigarettes a couple of times a week.

    She has about 11 different flavours of e-liquid, most she hasn’t tasted yet as a bowl of the liquid in the vape is lasting a couple of days but so far her favourites are the coffee, golden leaf (supposedly tobacco taste and texture) and cool mint (obviously menthol). I guess she will eventually get around to tasting the others, there is grape, harvey wall banger, disco inferno plus other which I have no idea what the flavour actually is.

    I am just happy she is no longer using cigarettes and filling her body with tar and the other couple of hundred poisons that are in cigarette smoke. Inhaling glycerol and a little flavour must surely be a lot better than inhaling rat poison, insect poisons, weed killers, tar, plus everything else in cigarettes. And, according to a special done by Dr Michael Mosely on vaping there is even less intrusion on others by vaping than second hand smoke as most of the exhalation from the vape is water vapour.

  10. Uniforms, medals, buttons and bows, epaulettes, flags, more flags, marching bands, escorts, private armies, bells and whistles – all the hallmarks of the deeply inadequate.

    (Loved the tweet from the Ex Mexican President about Trump – such a small piece of paper for such a big turd. Hilarious)

  11. If that moron was still around and the ‘lets ban the gay kiddies’ controversy was raging we’d still be listening to the bloviating fuckwit doing his best barrister explaining the nuances of the various laws and his proposed ‘strengthening’ of the provisions and slagging off all the lesser minds that couldn’t appreciate the beauty of his elegant solution.

    I was thinking the same thing when Insiders were talking about it this morning. Turnbull had a spectacular knack for not only shooting himself in the foot, but to keep on firing!

  12. D&M

    Yes, if it means saving the health and lives of real living people now. The peak psychiatrists body in Australia has called for vaping to be legal, because their patients are dying 15 years earlier than the general population because of their rates of smoking.

    Simon Chapman, who I usually have a lot of time for, said much the same as you -” yes, their patients are badly affected by this, but I think that overall we are better off without vaping”. I think that throwing this already disadvantaged cohort under a bus is cruel.

    And of course, no study has been able to show any harm from vaping.

    I think you have misunderstood me. I don’t think addicted smokers should be thrown under a bus.
    Vaping should definitely be available to them, perhaps via prescription. I just don’t think allowing unrestricted usage of vaping is sensible.

  13. After close examination of my Crystal ball the News Poll result is determined as 70/30 to Labor.

    However deductions are in order owing to a slew to the right from Wayne and Rex which results in a perfect 56/44 to Labor.

    The evidence is plain. I use the same tecnique as the Iridologists* who, from time to time, frequent the local Chemist Shop AKA Pharmacie

    *Image result for iridologists
    alternativa-za-vas.com

    Iridology (also known as iridodiagnosis or iridiagnosis) is an alternative medicine technique whose proponents claim that patterns, colors, and other characteristics of the iris can be examined to determine information about a patient’s systemic health.

  14. C
    ‘Not to mention the latest wrinkle by the ‘She’ll be right, mate!’ crowd who are advocating engineering your way out of Global Warming trouble. Such as our own Coalition government who believe you can create a giant fan to ‘cool’ the Great Barrier reef down so it will survive.’

    Not true. What they ARE doing is testing the technical feasibility at a local scale. There are two potential outcomes at a local scale, both worth considering from a conservation biology point of view, should local cooling prove feasible.

    1. The first is that they may be able to maintain coral in diversity hot spots.
    2. The second is that these hot spots may serve as spawn sources.

    The back story is that the tourism industry has realized the global warming game is up and is looking at ways to maintain coral gardens for the industry. They don’t need maintain thousands km of coral for this purpose.

    There is no real difference in intensity of effort between the fan concept to protect a local section of the Reef, and the sort of effort that has gone into, for example, maintaining the California Condor – with individual raising and de facto hand feeding in the wild for a total cost of over $50 million.

    And the California Condor is only ‘half’ a species since Andean Condor genetic material was used to enable the recovery program.

  15. ItzaDream:

    [‘They are a manifestation of his deep insecurity about himself and the world he sees, with fear. All his actions are attack based on fear. He is very poorly evolved. And in good company.’]

    Agree, though I’d take it further than that, but I’m not encrypted.

  16. Thanks HavaAchat,

    Yes, the lack of ‘after-odour’ on clothes, hair, breath, and in the air really hits home when a I get a smoke off a friend. Not to mention the bank balance, nice white teeth, and long forgotten morning hack of phlegm.

  17. The misspent millions of the NSW and federal governments rarely surprise me but the latest is that $600,000+ has just been spent on a replacement Rural fire station,s KITCHEN. Plus the local community building just got a $6000 oven to replace the four year old $800 model. Needless to say this is in one of the Libs most marginal seats.

  18. A different Michael:

    [‘News poll prediction: I’m going the full optimist. 55-45 to labor.’]

    Good on you. It would be shocking if Morrison were to improve the Tories’ 2PP on the basis of chicanery.

  19. Very soon nearly everyone will be smoking cones just to cope with the doom and distress of seeing the planet dry up like a grape on hot concrete.

  20. From BK’s Dawn Patrol

    By Peter FitzSimons
    14 October 2018 — 12:00am

    Joke of the Week

    A Mexican businessman, visiting the USA from South America, is in south Alabama when he happens to pass by a book-store. Entering, he browses for twenty minutes before asking the person at the desk, in his thick accent, “Do you have the book on Donald Trump’s foreign policies with Mexico?” The clerk replies, “F**k you, get out, stay out!” The man replies, “Si, I think that’s the one!”

    On that note – great grandpappy nanny nap pour moi. 🌻

  21. Aunt Mavis says:
    Sunday, October 14, 2018 at 12:08 pm
    [‘Newspoll prediction: ALP 51-49.’]

    I hope you’re wrong, Prof. Higgins. Yet even if you’re right, it still means around 41 Newspolls where the Tories have lost, plus countless Essential’s, ReachTel’s, etc.

    If I were a Labor strategist, I’d very impliedly remind the electorate that according to the Bible, the Earth’s only six thousand years old; whereas coal is some 300 million…

    _______________________

    You need to stock up on the Kool-Aid. 😉

    They’ve got that figured out, coal only takes a matter of months to form, just ask them. There was a link a few days ago. The one below is similar:

    https://answersingenesis.org/biology/plants/how-did-we-get-all-this-coal/

  22. Puffytmd @ #1179 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 11:48 am

    seeing the planet dry up like a grape on hot concrete.

    Won’t happen. The average temperature will increase. Catastrophically, even. But the water that’s on the planet won’t/cannot go anywhere.

    If anything, a warmer world means that more water vapor will be present in the atmosphere at any given time, available to precipitate out as rain. It’s more a question of whether or not that rain falls anywhere useful. Or if it all goes into producing more/stronger/longer-lived hurricanes and cyclones.

  23. Re the Newspoll-Poll. It seems I missed a few of you today. Please accept my apologies and I thank you for your patience. I’m taking a break now, but I’ll be back later this afternoon to gather any final guesses. This is what we have so far.
    PB Newspoll-Poll 2018-10-14

    PB mean: ALP 53.3 to 46.7 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 40

    ALP / LNP
    55 / 45 A different Michael
    53 / 47 a r
    55 / 45 Aqualung
    53 / 47 Aunt Mavis
    52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
    52 / 48 BK
    54 / 46 Boerwar
    54 / 46 briefly
    53 / 47 C@tmomma
    53 / 47 Confessions
    54.5 / 45.5 DaretoTread
    53 / 47 Don
    52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
    54 / 46 guytaur
    53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    53 / 47 IoM
    54 / 46 imacca
    53 / 47 jenauthor
    54 / 46 John R
    56 / 44 KayJay
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    55 / 45 Michael
    54 / 46 mikehilliard
    53 / 47 pica
    53 / 47 Player One
    51 / 49 Prof. Higgins
    54 / 46 Puffytmd
    54 / 46 Question
    53 / 47 rhwombat
    52 / 48 Sceptic
    50 / 50 Sprocket_
    54 / 46 Socrates
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 steve davis
    53 / 47 Steve777
    52.5 / 47.5 The Silver Bodgie
    53 / 47 Tricot
    53 / 47 Upnorth
    52.5 / 47.5 Whisper
    53 / 47 Yabba

  24. There are two groups of people that may become vapers. The first group is former smokers, who usually started smoking when they were young and foolish. These people will get a health benefit from vaping. The second group is the young and foolish who will take up vaping from scratch. The health of these people will clearly be harmed by vaping. Because you are a member of the first group you seem happy to throw the second group under a bus. I think that is pretty ordinary.

    To me it seems like a reasonable approach would be to limit vaping to the first group by making it available by prescription only.

    I agree. Vaping devices must not become a consumer good. They have to be used only as a clinically supervised aid for quitting smoking.

    The tobacco companies have form in manipulating the public and inflicting immense harm. They should not be trusted at all.

  25. Had a Victorian Labor MP as a guest speaker at a dinner last night – he said that a ‘Save the ABC’ forum organised by his electorate office booked out days before and that a woman approached him afterwards saying that she had voted Liberal for fifty years, disagreed with basically everything Labor stood for, but would be voting Labor at the next election simply because of the ABC.

  26. zoomster

    I sometimes wonder what died-in-the-wool Liberals imagine that Labor stands for. Just “Unions”(baaaad)” I suppose. Oh, and according to Josh, Matthias et al, “High taxes”.

  27. “A Mexican businessman, visiting the USA from South America” The Mexican Businessman went to South America from Mexico and then returned to North America (USA). This has to be the case, as Mexico is a North American country, as is Cuba, etc.

  28. Player one:

    “They are instead denying that their preferred style of unbridled capitalism could have led to such a catastrophic outcome”

    In fact most of the main renewable energy technologies—wind, solar, wave—are far more capital (and technology) intensive than the others.

    In contrast, other energy technologies—coal, oil, gas, hydro, nuclear—are in various different ways highly land intensive and far less capital intensive (and less technology intensive).

    The reason the rentiers are opposed to renewables is that it devalues the land (in various forms) they have acquired at prices heavily discounted by corrupt government. They also hate new technology—I’m no tech-head, as Coal Fired Haw Haw says—and businesses with high levels of the capital factor of production, because such businesses usually upend markets in which they currently own monopolies (and near-monopolies) from which they derive economic rents. As Churchill said, all significant monopolies derive ultimately from (discounted) ownership of land in its various forms.

    In short, it is all about them protecting the value of their ill-gotten and now stranded assets, their corruption of government as a strategy to do so, and the enthusiastic participation of Haw-Haw and his mates in this protection racket. And it is in no way supported by capitalism as it concerns its original purpose in the development of the capital factor of production, and instead is wholly opposed to that, the original capitalism.

  29. Mike Carlton

    We are ruled by idiots. My local council is planning “a cultural space with the potential to trigger outdoor activations.” WTF does that mean ?

  30. Late Riser @ #1185 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 12:58 pm

    Re the Newspoll-Poll. It seems I missed a few of you today. Please accept my apologies and I thank you for your patience. I’m taking a break now, but I’ll be back later this afternoon to gather any final guesses. This is what we have so far.
    PB Newspoll-Poll 2018-10-14

    PB mean: ALP 53.3 to 46.7 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 40

    ALP / LNP
    55 / 45 A different Michael
    53 / 47 a r
    55 / 45 Aqualung
    53 / 47 Aunt Mavis
    52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
    52 / 48 BK
    54 / 46 Boerwar
    54 / 46 briefly
    53 / 47 C@tmomma
    53 / 47 Confessions
    54.5 / 45.5 DaretoTread
    53 / 47 Don
    52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
    54 / 46 guytaur
    53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    53 / 47 IoM
    54 / 46 imacca
    53 / 47 jenauthor
    54 / 46 John R
    56 / 44 KayJay
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    55 / 45 Michael
    54 / 46 mikehilliard
    53 / 47 pica
    53 / 47 Player One
    51 / 49 Prof. Higgins
    54 / 46 Puffytmd
    54 / 46 Question
    53 / 47 rhwombat
    52 / 48 Sceptic
    50 / 50 Sprocket_
    54 / 46 Socrates
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 steve davis
    53 / 47 Steve777
    52.5 / 47.5 The Silver Bodgie
    53 / 47 Tricot
    53 / 47 Upnorth
    52.5 / 47.5 Whisper
    53 / 47 Yabba

    Not that it matters, but my highly optimistic 60-40 seems to have dropped off the list.

  31. Socrates
    In the books I’ve read, they said artists, writers and musicians had quite high rates of serious mental illness. Political leaders, explorers, scientists, sportsmen and inventors were much the same as the general population.

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