BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor

No real change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, except that there is now a Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trend in business.

BludgerTrack has been updated with the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, together with the state breakdowns published earlier this week by Ipsos. This yields only the tiniest change on voting intention, and no change whatsoever on the seat projection.

I’ve also made my first effort to reactivate the leadership ratings, which have been dormant since Malcolm Turnbull’s because there has been insufficient data to generate a trend measure for Scott Morrison. This is still the case with his net approval ratings, for which there are only five data points, but there have been two extra points for the preferred prime minister question, which makes all the difference.

As such, the leadership ratings trends available through the full BludgerTrack display (click below) show separate trend measures on the preferred prime minister chart for the Turnbull-versus-Shorten and Morrison-versus-Shorten eras. This demonstrates that Morrison’s lead over Shorten is more or less the same as Turnbull’s was. I have also finally updated Bill Shorten’s net approval trend, which suggests a very slight improvement since the Liberal leadership change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,373 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor”

  1. I don’t find TS Eliot depressing at all (except The Hollow Men). Samuel Beckett’s prose is depressing although the plays aren’t.

    People with high IQ, above 132, are about twice as likely to suffer common mental illnesses like depression and anxiety.

    Of really high achieving famous people (statesmen, explorers, musicians, philosophers, military, writers, physicists etc) only the artistic ones especially poets have a higher rate of serious mental disorders like bipolar disorder and schizophrenia.

  2. I didn’t watch all of Insiders, so I don’t know if they dealt with the Roberts issue in any depth, or all the other examples of alleged government corruption, or heaven forbid, linked them all together to prove a pattern of (alleged) wrong doing.

    But I reckon I’d be safe in assuming that the most recent example wasn’t even mentioned, yet alone an attempt to join the very obvious dots attempted.

  3. Morning all. P1 I like your summation of the conservative mindset options for climate change denial. I favour option 2 – sociopaths who think they will be safe and hence do not care. It is the explanation that fits with their other behaviours – kids locked up on Nauru, increasing wage inequality, tax rorts, marriage equality etc. Sociopathy in abundance.

    I think many self proclaimed christians think like this. The “chosen people” meme. Spending your formative years in the young Liberals/IPA/BCA bubble probably doesnt help either.

  4. The Canberra light rail project is going well and this item deserves mention.
    “Transport Canberra’s latest annual report shows more than two million hours had been worked on the project by Canberra Metro, Transport Canberra and the Independent Certifier as of June this year.”
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/act/bones-of-light-rail-shelters-now-in-place-20181012-p5098x.html

    In the past Labor has invested in road projects to stimulate employment. But they are increasingly automated with little labour intensive work. Whereas in urban areas rail projects (heavy or light) give more jobs per dollar.

  5. Not much hope for the world when…
    Controversial trial of banned gas technology gets tick of approval in South Australia.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-04/outrage-as-banned-gas-technology-approved-in-south-australia/10196388

    A controversial trial for a highly polluting mining technology has been given the green light in South Australia, despite being banned in Queensland for what was described as the worst contamination in the state’s history….Underground coal gasification – involves setting fire to coal underground to extract gas.

    https://indaily.com.au/news/2018/04/26/experts-urge-caution-leigh-creek-projects-environmental-risks/

  6. Morning all. Updated PB Newspoll-Poll 2018-10-14

    PB mean: ALP 53.2 to 46.8 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 29

    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 a r
    55 / 45 Aqualung
    53 / 47 Aunt Mavis
    52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
    52 / 48 BK
    54 / 46 Boerwar
    54 / 46 briefly
    53 / 47 C@tmomma
    53 / 47 Confessions
    52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
    53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    53 / 47 IoM
    54 / 46 imacca
    54 / 46 John R
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    55 / 45 Michael
    54 / 46 mikehilliard
    53 / 47 pica
    53 / 47 Player One
    54 / 46 Puffytmd
    53 / 47 rhwombat
    52 / 48 Sceptic
    54 / 46 Socrates
    53 / 47 steve davis
    52.5 / 47.5 The Silver Bodgie
    53 / 47 Tricot
    53 / 47 Upnorth
    52.5 / 47.5 Whisper
    53 / 47 Yabba

  7. Its been a bad week for the LNP.

    The big end of town ruling with the Opera House resonating nationwide with voters. Then the right to be bigots revisited trying to undo the voters will with the Marriage Equality survey.

    So I too expect a 54-46

  8. The Victorian Opposition is promising, ‘Free textbooks for all students’!?!

    I thought textbooks were mostly online and Course Notes were what you bought these days?

  9. BB
    There are two groups of people that may become vapers. The first group is former smokers, who usually started smoking when they were young and foolish. These people will get a health benefit from vaping. The second group is the young and foolish who will take up vaping from scratch. The health of these people will clearly be harmed by vaping. Because you are a member of the first group you seem happy to throw the second group under a bus. I think that is pretty ordinary.

    To me it seems like a reasonable approach would be to limit vaping to the first group by making it available by prescription only.

  10. adrian @ #1102 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 11:07 am

    I didn’t watch all of Insiders, so I don’t know if they dealt with the Roberts issue in any depth, or all the other examples of alleged government corruption, or heaven forbid, linked them all together to prove a pattern of (alleged) wrong doing.

    But I reckon I’d be safe in assuming that the most recent example wasn’t even mentioned, yet alone an attempt to join the very obvious dots attempted.

    You missed Niki Savva announcing that “after all” the creatures imprisoned on Manus and Nauru are actually “human beings”.

  11. Like BB, I am a vape convert.

    To anyone who smokes, I highly recommend it. The hard part is finding the machine and flavours that suit you. If you get it right when you start, it is about 80 to 90% as satisfying for a regular smoker. If you stick with it soon becomes more satisfying. I occasionally have a real cigarette, and instantly regret it. With smoking the moment of satisfaction is soon replaced with ashtray mouth. This doesn’t happen with vaping. There is no tar that builds up on your teeth, fingers, (or lungs).

    The only real risk is mis-use or bad juice, which is why it should be made more easily available, so it can be regulated. There are no known carcinogens in reputable juice correctly vaporised.

    There are people who love getting offended by vaping because it looks like smoking. This reeks of wowserism to me. I have learned to behave as if I am smoking when in public, but if you keep the vape out of sight, even the wowsers don’t notice.

    The main line of attack is usually ‘big tobacco’ links, and that it is a gateway to smoking, and ignores the health outcomes.

  12. Roll out the pork barrels!

    EXCLUSIVE: BRONTE Surf Life Saving Club will receive a whopping $2 million from the federal government to replace their dilapidated club house. Via @emilymac_journo

  13. Vaping does have one big advantage. It stops people mixing nicotine with marijuana so can massively reduce cancer effects caused by mixing nicotine to get marijuana burning

    Edit: This is why the vaping industry took off. North America embraced it as the got to delivery method for legalised recreation marijuana delivery

  14. The Republicans are doing all they can to ensure people likely to vote Democrat at elections don’t get to vote at all.

    In Georgia, election officials have suspended more than 50,000 applications to register to vote, most of them for black voters, under a rigorous Republican-backed law that requires personal information to exactly match driver’s license or Social Security records.

    In Texas, the state attorney general has prosecuted nearly three dozen individuals on charges of voter fraud this year, more than the previous five years combined.

    And in North Carolina, a U.S. attorney and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) issued subpoenas last month demanding that virtually all voting records in 44 counties be turned over to immigration authorities within weeks — a move that was delayed after objections from state election officials.

    Voting rights advocates said Republicans are seizing on sporadic voting problems in an effort to disenfranchise voters of color.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/crackdowns-on-potential-voter-fraud-fuel-worries-about-ballot-access-in-november/2018/10/13/764db388-c0cd-11e8-be77-516336a26305_story.html?utm_term=.9373adffc867

  15. Re. “Insiders”:

    1. I didn’t find David to be pecksniffian;*

    2. Mathias appeared less sanctimonious than usual, but has adopted Scott Morrison’s smirk;

    3. Peter was right about the Morrison Government’s lack of a narrative;

    4. Nikki was rather droll, but was right about bigotry; and

    5. The guy from the “West Australian” speaks a lot of sense.

    [‘Pecksniff, Seth Sanctimonious surveyor and architect “who has never designed or built anything”, and one of the biggest hypocrites in fiction. Father of daughters Mercy and Charity. In an effort to gain old Martin’s money he embraces then throws out young Martin at old Martin’s wish. When long time servant Tom Pinch learns of Pecksniff’s treachery he is also thrown out. Pecksniff’s self-serving designs are eventually exposed by Old Martin who reconciles with his grandson, young Martin. Dickens’ description of Pecksniff’s hypocrisy is telling: “Some people likened him to a direction-post, which is always telling the way to a place, and never goes there.” in Martin Chuzzlewit.’]

  16. JW

    The second group is the young and foolish who will take up vaping from scratch. The health of these people will clearly be harmed by vaping. Because you are a member of the first group you seem happy to throw the second group under a bus. I think that is pretty ordinary.

    This does not make sense. The young and foolish will just take up smoking actual cigarettes. Anyone over the age of 18 is legally allowed to buy as many cigarettes as they like.

  17. Re climate denial, I think that the situation is:

    1. Rich and powerful vested interests, through a concerted campaign of disinformation via think-tanks, sympathetic politicians and media outlets, have created enough confusion and doubt that the general public, including not a few elected officials, genuinely believe one or more of the following:

    1a. That Climate change is a hoax,
    1b. That the impacts of climate change are greatly exaggerated
    1c. That it’s all hype, like talk in the 70s about a coming Ice Age or that everything causes cancer
    1d. That there is a genuine debate among those who actually work in climate science

    2. Many associated with / driving those vested interests must know the score. Mining uses science and depends upon it for their profits. I think that they see the cure (brakes on free-wheeling capitalism) as worse than the disease.

    3. Many on the right think that the ‘market’ will take care of things. We see hints of that in expressions to the effect that renewables are getting cheaper so no there’s need to do anything (this doesn’t explain the war on renewables, however).

    4. Many genuinely don’t care. This includes CEOs on 5 year contracts and ordinary people focused on power bills and mortgages. They’ll worry about it later, like a young smoker told something bad will happen when they’re very old (like 40) if they don’t stop.

    5. Like Big Tobacco before them, the vested interests know the score but want to keep the game going for as long as possible.

    5. And, of course, the elites believe / know that they and their line will almost certainly survive whatever happens.

  18. D&M

    This does not make sense. The young and foolish will just take up smoking actual cigarettes. Anyone over the age of 18 is legally allowed to buy as many cigarettes as they like.

    I take your point, but there is a steady decline in the incidence of smoking as the result of extensive education programs, restrictions on sale, graphic health warnings on boxes, plain packaging etc. Do we want to have to repeat this effort down the track to wean people off vaping?

  19. Question,

    In Vienna recently I noticed that they were selling THC vape juice, and advertising it everywhere.

    I brought back a flyer from the local convenience store. It gives the THC content of the different e-juices. Admittedly I was staying in the Newtown end of Vienna, between the Convention centre and the Prater park. The latter is a gorgeous Victorian era amusement park.

  20. Late Riser says:
    Sunday, October 14, 2018 at 11:17 am
    Morning all. Updated PB Newspoll-Poll 2018-10-14

    PB mean: ALP 53.2 to 46.8 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 29

    __________

    I seem to have dropped off the list.

    Put me down for 53/47 to Labor.

  21. Bill deliberately goes commando

    Indeed. One of the things many have underestimated and/or underappreciated Shorten for. Especially amongst those who are going to vote Labor or at least send their 2PP vote that way.

    Shorten has been incredibly judicious in picking his fights. Many on the ‘left’ see that as weakness or same-sameyness, but it’s Sun Tzu. He knows he can’t do much at all as opposition leader. He has to win.

    So he’s identified the fields he wishes to do battle on. He has fortified these positions and brought up the big guns to attack from there. The swamps and enemy minefields where the government want to do battle he simply avoids. They can have that ground. Many want him to storm these, to risk everything in a quagmire. And mark him down when he doesn’t. They don’t see the bigger picture.

    Shorten did it to Abbott, he did it Trumble, and now he’s doing it to Morrison. He holds the high ground and he won’t be giving the Libs the advantage by coming to fight on their ground. After the war is won some of the swamps can be drained, and some of the minefields cleared. But that will take time. First job is win the war. For five years three Liberal PM’s have been trying to trick Shorten into fighting a losing battle. For five years Bill has been winning the war.

    Future historians that focus only on the stupidity and disunity of the Liberals in their failure will be missing more than half the story.

  22. Agree D & M @11:38,

    The US and UK are less anal and vape is more accessible, and the numbers of young people smoking is dropping dramatically. But oh-no! The numbers vaping is increasing! That would be a concern if vaping had the health risks of smoking. It doesn’t.

  23. After reading of BB’s experience with vaping I bought my partner a vaping machine plus a selection of zero nicotine e-liquids (as they don’t sell nicotine containing liquids in Australia). I also order a number of e-liquids from overseas containing nicotine plus I bought the necessary glycerol and flavours and nicotine to make my own e-liquids for her.
    The day I gave it to her she selected a ‘coffee’ flavoured zero nicotine liquid to try, since that day she has not had a traditional cigarette, she currently uses e-liquids with 2mg of nicotine with flavours ranging from fruit to cocktails to ones that are supposed to give the flavour and texture of normal cigarettes.
    After trying to quit smoking for the last 7 years to give up lighting up traditional cigarettes the first day of using an vape, then I support the use of vaping as a quit smoking aid.

  24. I am reposting from Wentworth by-poll thread”\:
    I think Sharma will win the seat although following happened:
    1. MT is dumped as PM and resigned from seat
    2. Ruddock religious report was leaked strategically to imply that discrimination against gays in schools in a couple of states will be legislated to include whole country
    3. Sydney Opera House billboard scandal, which implicated Gladys B and Morrison
    4. ALP has a good candidate especially with business credentials, which are acceptable to Wentworth voters
    5. Murray is a local of Wentworth and Sharma is not.
    6. Sharma not attending community meeting, where all other candidates attended, is not a good look on Sharma.
    7. Federal government out right rejection of IPCC report on climate change effects
    8. Morrison refused to explain the reason why he is the PM and MT is not.
    9. ALP corflutes are removed and replaced by Sharma’s posters.

  25. Newspoll prediction: ALP 51-49.

    Some of you might very well think that this guesstimate is what I reckon Emperor Murdoch wishes it to be in order to justify his removal of Turnbull for the imminent Wentworth election .
    I couldn’t possibly comment.
    (apologies to Ian Richardson in original and best UK ‘House of Cards’). 🙂

    Muchas gracias, Late Riser, for your assiduity!


  26. Aunt Mavis says:
    Sunday, October 14, 2018 at 11:47 am
    I can’t think why Dutton’s accompanied in public by AFP officers in civvies.

    Because he can & probably to convey the perception that AFP is under his total control in every which way.

  27. HaveAchat,

    And as a non-smoker, how do you feel being around vape rather than smoke? I have a few flavours my wife doesn’t like much. I imagine the coffee flavours have a strong smell.

  28. @JW

    Do we want to have to repeat this effort down the track to wean people off vaping?

    Yes, if it means saving the health and lives of real living people now. The peak psychiatrists body in Australia has called for vaping to be legal, because their patients are dying 15 years earlier than the general population because of their rates of smoking.

    Simon Chapman, who I usually have a lot of time for, said much the same as you -” yes, their patients are badly affected by this, but I think that overall we are better off without vaping”. I think that throwing this already disadvantaged cohort under a bus is cruel.

    And of course, no study has been able to show any harm from vaping.

  29. Steve- that, depressingly, is how I see it. Plenty of “we’ll be okay” amongst some. Both in terms of wealthier individuals, and (to a lesser degree) wealthier nations.

  30. Don’t forget the fruit loops who believe dog gave us coal but not solar panels (only chlorophyll). How they square that with only giving us horses, not cars, I don’t know. But there you are.

  31. Douglas and Milko @ #1131 Sunday, October 14th, 2018 – 11:47 am

    Question,

    In Vienna recently I noticed that they were selling THC vape juice, and advertising it everywhere.

    I brought back a flyer from the local convenience store. It gives the THC content of the different e-juices. Admittedly I was staying in the Newtown end of Vienna, between the Convention centre and the Prater park. The latter is a gorgeous Victorian era amusement park.

    And then there’s Amsterdam.

    Oral (sublingual) oils are available.

  32. Ven:

    [‘Because he can & probably to convey the perception that AFP is under his total control in every which way.’]

    You’re probably right but I think there’s also another issue in play here.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *