BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor

No real change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, except that there is now a Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trend in business.

BludgerTrack has been updated with the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, together with the state breakdowns published earlier this week by Ipsos. This yields only the tiniest change on voting intention, and no change whatsoever on the seat projection.

I’ve also made my first effort to reactivate the leadership ratings, which have been dormant since Malcolm Turnbull’s because there has been insufficient data to generate a trend measure for Scott Morrison. This is still the case with his net approval ratings, for which there are only five data points, but there have been two extra points for the preferred prime minister question, which makes all the difference.

As such, the leadership ratings trends available through the full BludgerTrack display (click below) show separate trend measures on the preferred prime minister chart for the Turnbull-versus-Shorten and Morrison-versus-Shorten eras. This demonstrates that Morrison’s lead over Shorten is more or less the same as Turnbull’s was. I have also finally updated Bill Shorten’s net approval trend, which suggests a very slight improvement since the Liberal leadership change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,373 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor”

  1. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    C@tmomma @ #2032 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 11:07 pm

    Trump’s Contradiction: Assailing ‘Left-Wing Mob’ as Crowd Chants ‘Lock Her Up’
    a r:
    Are they still doing that one? They’ve had two bloody years to ‘lock her up’.

    I think the relevant expression is “shit or get off the pot”.

    No, a r, they’ve moved onto Herr Drumpf’s latest political bete noir, Dianne Feinstein. A little old 85 year old lady. Trump is inculcating the desire in his followers to acquiesce to locking up political prisoners. Especially if you are female, it seems.

  2. I have also finally updated Bill Shorten’s net approval trend, which suggests a very slight improvement since the Liberal leadership change.

    Yay! 🙂

  3. Is Phil Coorey in the AFR losing some of his CPG race calling approach to energy/climate policy?

    Here he channels what the business community is increasingly saying about the Coalition failure:

    “To appease Alan Jones, who complained about the term “dispatchable power”, Morrison and his Energy Minister Angus Taylor, otherwise grown men, talk about delivering “fair dinkum” power and of Taylor really being the minister for low power prices.

    Simplistic language designed to appeal to Percy Punter but which fails to grasp the complex transition under way in the energy sector.


    Taylor had a point when he said that while the major parties may have agreed on the NEG, they still disagreed on the size of its emissions target.

    “There is no room for bipartisanship when we have a 26 per cent [reduction target] and the other side has 45 per cent,” he told the The Australian Financial Review National Energy Summit in Sydney on Wednesday.

    Still, an agreed policy framework in which change would have to be argued through the Parliament would have been a quantum leap on the current shambles.

    The language of simpletons is fine if you feel no need to pay regard to climate change and investment risk.

    It worked before for Tony Abbott but this time might be different. Business and industry are furious at the demise of the NEG. Publicly, their language is diplomatic. Privately, much of it is unprintable.

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The banking heavies came across as quite smarmy at yesterday’s appearance at the parliamentary inquiry and Westpac came up with a telling admission.
    Clancy Yeates examines the less than stellar appearance of CBA’s CEO Matt Comyn.
    Comyn drew howls of laughter as he tried to answer questions during an interrogation at the hands of House of Representative MPs.
    Labor MPs have chastised the Commonwealth Bank for its aggressive litigation tactics and lack of empathy for aggrieved customers as the bank pledged to do more to ensure deceased estates haven’t been charged inappropriate fees following scandals revealed by the banking royal commission.
    In quite a thoughtful contribution Waleed Aly tell us why the Opera House backlash was so fierce.
    Jenna Price wonders what happens when Morrison, Porter and Shelton walk into your bedroom. She comes on pretty strongly.
    Eryk Bagshaw explains how former treasurer Peter Costello has launched an excoriating attack on the Liberal Party leadership, warning the government is “operating in a parallel universe” by promising voters it would deliver reforms in 10 years’ time.
    The Australian tells us how Morrison has reacted to Costello’s savaging.
    According to Bagshaw Labor has left the door open to supporting the Morrison government’s accelerated company tax cuts as the Prime Minister moves to put them before Parliament next week.
    And Amy Remeikis reports that the Morrison government is on track for its first major legislative win, having won over the bulk of the crossbench on its plan to accelerate further tax cuts for small and medium businesses.
    Bill Shorten has fired back at the Morrison government’s claim he is playing the politics of envy, telling business leaders he doesn’t mind how rich anyone is.
    David Crowe reckons the immigration debates has gone off the rails. And there’s a sting in the tail of the article for the Coalition.
    Morrison’s certainly got his hands full with the freedom of religion issue.
    Morrison’s ‘blind spot’ may come from reading the Bible too literally according to theology lecturer Robyn Whitaker.
    And former minister Concetta Fierravanti-Wells has slammed the Coalition’s handling of religious protections, accusing senior Liberals of going missing during the same-sex marriage debate.
    David Marr says the right to expel gay children from school isn’t about freedom; it’s about cruelty.
    A Harvey Norman franchisee bailed out at a cost of almost $8 million – dragging down Harvey Norman’s Australian earnings and raising new questions about the independence of franchisees – had a troubled history.
    Phil Coorey writes that appeasing the political cancers on the right of the Liberal Party has left business furious and ready to adopt its own emissions reduction scheme.
    Simon Benson reports that Shorten has flagged giving ­financial regulators the power to force bank-owned retail super­annuation funds to appoint ­independent trustees to ensure members’ interests are put ahead of profits when dealing with workers’ compulsory retirement savings.
    Federal approval to clear more than 2,000 hectares of Queensland native forest in the catchment for the Great Barrier Reef could potentially be held up for months after the Environmental Defender’s Office launched court action to prevent it.
    The SMH editorial reflects on yesterday’s stock market rout and says that the global economic sunshine can’t last forever.
    And Stephen Bartholomeusz opines that the shudder that roiled the US share market overnight may not be the end of the near decade-long bull market but it might well signal the beginning of the end.
    Meanwhile idiot Trump has launched a second day of criticism against the Federal Reserve on Thursday, calling its interest rate increases a “ridiculous” policy that was making it more expensive for his administration to finance its escalating deficits.
    The crisis in Australia’s political system is less about the quality of individual politicians and more to do with the “majority media” and business lobby groups drowning out the independent centre for their own self-interest, distinguished economist, Prof Ross Garnaut has said.
    Jennifer Hewett explores the minefield of gas supply and pricing.
    New rules designed to simplify private health insurance will leave thousands of consumers facing significant premium increases, the Grattan Institute has warned.
    Fergus Hunter looks at yesterday’s AFP raid on Home Affairs’ HQ. Is the Uber Tuber after Roman’s scalp?
    Urban specialist Chris Johnson declares that recent statements by NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian that Sydney’s migration intake should be halved indicate a short-term populist policy to appease voters before next year’s state election.
    Nick McKenzie writes that the revelation that the disappearance of Interpol president Meng Hongwei was engineered by Beijing’s secret police shows what President Xi Jinping really thinks of those within the international community who care for the rule of law.
    The recent Opera House billboard debate has not only outraged many but also shed a spotlight on other social problems, writes Jacinta Coelho.,11986
    Labor candidate Tim Murray has an op-ed today in which he says Scott Morrison and the Liberal Party have no vision.
    Michelle Grattan looks at Alex Turnbull’s intervention in the Wentworth by-election lead up. She concludes with the observation “After the government’s shambles, Labor has a reasonable story to tell investors. But the story those investors really wanted to hear was a bipartisan one, and that won’t be delivered.”
    Dreamworld management “fobbed off” a safety officer’s attempts to provide out-of-hours training to staff at the Gold Coast theme park, an inquest has been told.
    Esther Han writes that a group of MPs has blasted NSW’s independent pricing regulator for suggesting that electricity prices had dropped over the past five years, with one member saying it was “on another planet”.
    Madonna King has crafted a resignation letter for The Parrot. If only!
    Dave Donovan writes that the world is divided into two sorts of people: those who believe everyone is motivated solely by greed and self-interest, and those who are not solely motivated by greed and self-interest.,11984
    John McDuling reports that a rebuke of the Telstra board appears all but inevitable next week. And while it may just look like a protest against executive bonuses amid a falling share price and mass job cuts, it could hint at a more significant repudiation of the company.
    These academics tells us how farmers’ climate denial has begun to wane as reality bites.
    The Northern Irish party that British Prime Minister Theresa May’s government relies on for support says it will consider backing a vote of no-confidence if May agrees to EU checks on goods entering the region post-Brexit.
    The Marsh brothers save the day for Australia yet again. Oh wait!
    A Greens NSW politician who has railed against defamation laws and their effects on free speech is suing multiple members of his own party – including demands for a $75,000 payout – after being publicly accused of sexually assaulting a young Greens staffer.
    Singer Shannon Noll has escaped a criminal conviction and been handed a 12-month good behaviour bond after pleading guilty to possessing cocaine. It must have been the character reference from Kyle Sandilands that saved the day for him!
    And for “Arseholes of the Week” . . . .

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe rolls out a new palette for this swipe at Trump.

    Peter Broelman enters the church.

    Paul Zanetti gives Gladys and The Parrot a nudge.

    Some good ones from matt Golding.

    A telling contribution from Alan Moir.

    David Pope puts Trump in a hot tub.$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/1edb22113669b9b48b6a62315e781d4fccd3450d
    The disturbed Johannes Leak with another exhibit.
    More in here.

  5. Twitter Toasts Melania For Saying She Is ‘The Most Bullied Person’

    In an exclusive interview with ABC News during her tour of Africa, first lady Melania Trump claimed she is the “most bullied person in the world.” Needless to say there are a lot people who disagree with her, and many of them went to Twitter to express their opinions.

    Melania’s comments inflamed social media. One person aptly wrote, “So #bebest is about her. The entire family is self-absorbed.” Another wrote, “Well, she’s married to the biggest bully in the world.”

    Another person wrote, “Hey @flotus, a persecution complex in one of the most pampered and privileged people in the country, married to a true creep, isn’t becoming.”

  6. Chief Justice Roberts Opens New Perjury Investigation Into Kavanaugh

    There are new reports that Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh is now being investigated for possible perjury charges.

    “Chief Justice John Roberts received more than a dozen judicial misconduct complaints in recent weeks against Brett M. Kavanaugh, who was confirmed as a Supreme Court justice Saturday, but did nothing about them.”

    Based on the nature of the complaints, it appears that the misconduct investigation will look into possible perjury by the new Supreme Court Justice. Many different people have said that his sworn testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee was not truthful, and in fact Kavanaugh might have committed perjury.

  7. Mr Denmore

    I’ve been in Asia all week & been questioned by sophisticated, well-informed people about what is going on in Australia. “Sounds like you’re all in with Trump,” is what one Chinese businesswoman said. The plan to force immigrants to settle outside Sydney & Melbourne? Poison.

  8. Fox News Dumps Live Trump Rally Coverage After Ratings Tank

    Fox News has stopped covering Trump’s rallies live because they were drawing lower rating than their regular primetime programming.

    Fox News viewers still love Trump, but they don’t tune in because everybody has seen Trump’s act before. He offers nothing new. It is the same old schtick, with the same tired lock her up and build the wall chants that viewers have heard for the last three years. Trump needs to get some new material. CNN and MSNBC dumped Trump’s rallies long ago, as the networks both deemed them not newsworthy, but it is still a blow that Trump’s cable news home base doesn’t want to take the hit of showing his rambling rallies to a Trump fatigued nation.

  9. BK

    Scotty is becoming Scotty Everywhere – saturation coverage in all and every media outlet he can find.

    Now if only he could stop talking over interviewers in that shrill, ever rising, ever motormouthing voice. I think unless he can somehow stop this, the coming election campaign will be a disaster.

    And that’s before people understand his policy positions

  10. BK @ #6 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 7:04 am

    Morrison being interviewed on ABC24 in yellow fluoro. His motormouth never stops He’s a complete turnoff.

    Didn’t I tell you he was following the Tony Abbott playbook in the run-up to the election? Stunts and a torrent of propaganda spewing from his mouth. The fluoro is also more eye-catching than a dull suit.

  11. Washington Post reporter: Kanye’s meeting with Trump was ‘just sad’ — and a distraction

    Lowery noted that while Trump was meeting with West there was serious news unfolding, such as Hurricane Michael and a missing journalist abroad.

    “It was certainly a remarkable spectacle,” Lowery told CNN’s Dana Bash. “At a time when we see these reports from Brooke [Baldwin] down at the ravaged Florida host after the hurricane, and [when] we’re awaiting any updates on our colleague presumed assassinated by the Saudi government — this kind of spectacle is taking place in the White House, with a controversial celebrity, who in this conversation disclosed he has been diagnosed with bipolar disorder.”

  12. Sprocket_ @ #10 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 7:10 am


    Scotty is becoming Scotty Everywhere – saturation coverage in all and every media outlet he can find.

    Now if only he could stop talking over interviewers in that shrill, ever rising, ever motormouthing voice. I think unless he can somehow stop this, the coming election campaign will be a disaster.

    And that’s before people understand his policy positions

    Also, like Kevin Rudd in the run-up to the 2013 election.

    People should start chanting at him:

    ‘Look at moi! Look at moi!’ 😀

  13. 545 point fall in the Dow makes 1300 in 2 days, any more and we are past the 5% ‘correction’.

    And Trump has stopped boasting about ‘how well we (read I) are doing’, instead blaming the Fed for halting the printing presses. If there are any educated, thinking Republicans left, they surely can’t put up with another 2 years of this idiocy

  14. I understand I can use the Bludgertrack to predict the outcome of an election. Statistical trends can be very useful, and analysis can show the effects of government announcements or debacles.
    The PPM stat. appears to be absolutely useless. It correlates with…. what, exactly? What does it predict?
    At the last election, when Turnbull was blitzing Shorten as PPM, the LNP came close to losing their majority.
    Why not measure the number of minutes each leader spends in press conferences each week?
    What about creating an Idiot Index, to measure the number of decisions our PM makes which have to be quietly reversed or buried later, and correlate it with the number of minutes our PM spends on 2GB and Sky? At least it would be more entertaining.

  15. Socialists. Spit!
    The worst insult Bronnie can think of? 😆

    Sky News Australia

    Verified account

    10 hours ago

    Former speaker Bronwyn Bishop: @TurnbullMalcolm was a socialist who ‘came into the Liberal party by subterfuge.’ Now he wants the party to ‘crash and burn.’

  16. Here’s the direct report of the meeting between Kanye West and Donald Trump in the White House, from The Washington Post:

    It was a head-scratching afternoon at the White House on Thursday as rapper Kanye West and so many of his opinions descended upon 1600 Penn. to discuss a range of topics, including North Korea and bipolar disorder, with his “brother” President Trump.

    And now Trump has gone into a whole new realm of propaganda, making small achievements into gigantic successes:

    Trump went on to explain that the United States had been “headed for war” with North Korea and that his administration had stopped the war and “saved millions of lives.”

    See what he has done there? A bit of theatrical sabre rattling has become, Trump ‘saved millions of lives’.

    Trump is as dangerous as the snake in the Garden of Eden. Fair dinkum!

  17. Maude Lynne,
    I’m with you. PPM is a vanity project and essentially useless metric. Why, if and when Bill Shorten becomes PM, he’ll probably lead on it too! 🙂

  18. Good Morning

    The lead story of Australian politics today is Morrison doing a backflip with pike saying he is “uncomfortable” with any child being expelled from a school based on their sexuality.

    Still no mention of the teachers.

  19. Sorry apparently I am wrong. According to Barrie Cassidy its the master stroke of bringing forward the tax cuts because it puts pressure on Labor.

  20. Trump’s lawyers preparing answers to Mueller’s questions

    President Donald Trump’s legal team is preparing answers to written questions provided by special counsel Robert Mueller, according to sources familiar with the matter.

    The move represents a major development after months of negotiations and signals that the Mueller investigation could be entering a final phase with regard to the President.

    The questions are focused on matters related to the investigation of possible collusion between Trump associates and Russians seeking to meddle in the 2016 election, the sources said. Trump’s lawyers are preparing written responses, in part relying on documents previously provided to the special counsel, the sources said.

  21. C@tmomma

    Whenever I see Bronnie I can’t help the instant reaction, “Silly old bat”, and yet she was very powerful as Speaker, much to our detriment.

  22. Has anyone picked up any annoyance about the Sydney-centric TV news last night, which ignored Ian Henderson’s final appearance (and our weather forecast)?

  23. lizzie

    I don’t know Melburnians reaction. However News 24 had to hurriedly call in their newsreader as the Melbourne broadcast ended

  24. Just now from Chris Bowen. “Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg a bit slow off the mark this morning. They haven’t yet blamed the international stock market meltdown on Labor’s policies.”

  25. Final day of the hearing of the safe zones around clinics case in the High Court

    The superficial reading suggests:

    (a) the Commonwealth won’t get anywhere with its argument that there is nothing for the HC to decide as there was not a relevant act of political communication in the case of at least one protester – the HC says we can decide constitutional validity on the hypothetical there was;
    (b) Queensland made some good points albeit it is presently only contemplating such legislation; and
    (c) the protesters did not land any blows in their final submissions.

    Shellbell’s unsophisticated hunch (which is to be forgotten if incorrect but emblazoned on the Sydney Opera House if correct) is that the legislation in Victoria will be declared unanimously valid and Tassie the same with some misgivings.

  26. “What about creating an Idiot Index, to measure the number of decisions our PM makes which have to be quietly reversed or buried later, and correlate it with the number of minutes our PM spends on 2GB and Sky? At least it would be more entertaining.”

    Entertaining, well the Shovel, Chaser or Betootha Advocate do a pretty good job?
    Far better than Question Time.
    Forget about policy, competency or services, then?
    Now as to beyond 2PP, primary, net satisfaction?
    New Netherland/ America already does a regular count of fact checks, extending it to New Holland/ Australia would be interesting, take PolitiFact with a Truth-o-Meter,
    As one time the ABC downunder had a score card against promises to execution, I think it was called PromiseWatch. I guess the whole 2013 federal election of stop the boats, axe the tax, no cuts to … took care of that.
    Not that elected Tonicchio from 2013 didn’t make room for barely returned Fizza or appointed [h]appy clapping Grinno …
    Then again B.ll Sh.tten obviously stands on the shoulders of KRudd7x7 to 2013 and Ju-liar .
    Sadly changing the puppet won’t change the show, let alone the theatre.
    Washminster-style repressive democracy as centered on Versailles on Lake Blwxyz Griffin, the FIFO that is Canberra ACT, certainly isn’t advancing Australia, fair.
    Until there is more direct democracy, campaign finance reform, mandatory and binding referendums, useful FoI and a federal anti-corruption commission …
    On the latest update to the UN’s in-equality adjusted Human Development Index Australia shows as seventh, largely led by more progressive on social matters, and more conservative on dollar matters Scandinavia.

  27. lizzie @ #40 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 8:02 am


    I’m quoting a friend who moved to Sydney and couldn’t believe (hadn’t anticipated) the humidity.

    We call it the Indian Summer part of the year. The mozzies and the local Indian population love it! 😀

    Anyway, it’s a good excuse to go out and purchase more stuff.

    Also, your friend needs to hang out her towels after use, or they will go mouldy too!

  28. morning bludgers

    i had been expecting the stock market to dip sharply this month.

    Meanwhile as BK posited, Morrison is a turn off. Most of the feedback I get is in this vein.

    He gives the impression of a cross between a cheap used car salesman and a bullshitting evangelical.
    Smarmy as well.

    Perhaps he has strengthened the base. That is all I can glean so far

  29. C@t

    Actually, both Melbourne and Sydney sprawl over such a wide area that “weather” is very variable, so I think comparisons are pretty useless. 🙂

  30. Victoria’s Labor government is to sign contracts for six new wind and solar farms after an overwhelming response to its first, and Australia’s largest, renewable energy auction.

    The response was so positive, and the value from the bids so great and the prices so low, that the government has reportedly elected to allocate 928MW of capacity – way more than the 650MW contemplated when the auction was first announced just over a year ago.

    Not only does the auction result lock in lower power prices for the state, this auction and the recent rooftop solar support scheme also achieves as much in emissions reductions as the federal Coalition government planned to achieve over a whole decade with the defunct National Energy Guarantee. Now, the Morrison government has abandoned any attempts to achieve any emissions cuts.

  31. Had a couple of hours to kill yesterday so went and watched “Ladies in Black” (which I enjoyed thoroughly).

    During the shorts, the “It starts with respect” (sic? not sure of campaign title) ad came on – the one where dad picks up his son from detention, dismisses his actions as ‘boys will be boys’, whereupon his daughter in the back seat says wtte of “That’s OK, I expect to be abused” and her father says, ‘That’s not what I meant.”

    The row of women behind me said variously: “Oh yes, that’s exactly what you meant.” “Men don’t get it, do they?” “Well, at least they’re trying now.”

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