BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor

No real change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, except that there is now a Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trend in business.

BludgerTrack has been updated with the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, together with the state breakdowns published earlier this week by Ipsos. This yields only the tiniest change on voting intention, and no change whatsoever on the seat projection.

I’ve also made my first effort to reactivate the leadership ratings, which have been dormant since Malcolm Turnbull’s because there has been insufficient data to generate a trend measure for Scott Morrison. This is still the case with his net approval ratings, for which there are only five data points, but there have been two extra points for the preferred prime minister question, which makes all the difference.

As such, the leadership ratings trends available through the full BludgerTrack display (click below) show separate trend measures on the preferred prime minister chart for the Turnbull-versus-Shorten and Morrison-versus-Shorten eras. This demonstrates that Morrison’s lead over Shorten is more or less the same as Turnbull’s was. I have also finally updated Bill Shorten’s net approval trend, which suggests a very slight improvement since the Liberal leadership change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,373 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 28
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  1. I wonder if anyone here knows whether Kevin Bonham has written anything about the “predictive power” of PPM polling results since this from 2012:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2012/12/why-preferred-prime-ministerpremier.html?m=1

    Does anyone here disagree that the best way to get psephological information from the PPM measure is to take the PM’s net preference over the OL, and then deduct from that a “house advantage” to PM of 16?

    If we accept that, then the current BludgerTrack advantage of 13.5% to the PM would be better read as a 2.5% deficit behind Bill Shorten, as far as trying to use PPM to judge the actual electoral strength of the parties they lead relative to each other. This puts the current situation for the Morrison Coalition Government somewhere between where Keating was against Howard in 1996 and where Gillard was against Abbott in 2010.

    Not promising for this government, if “PPM adjusted for house advantage” is any guide. Which it only is “sort of”.

  2. Most Australians want gay students to be welcomed and included in the schools their parents send them to.

    Lyle Shelton wants them to face questions about their sex life.

    #WWJD?

  9. @Eunoe

    Thanks for last night’s Chris Hedges link which I’ve had a quickie look at but is now saved for ron. I’d crashed after a night out in lovely Albert Park, what a charming part of the world it is.

  12. Good morning all,

    The MSM moans for a return to the “good Ol ‘ days ” of policy debate instead of the constant political games we now see in Canberra. Apparently the MSM is just tugging at the bit to get down and dirty into policy debate and leave the swamp of politics behind. God bless them.

    Yet, all they can talk about is the wedge angle and how Morrison has unveiled a master stroke of political genius on Shorten. I am sure Bill is shaking in his boots.

    What a sad but predictable bunch of losers our esteemed press gallery is.

    Cheers

  13. Getting all quaint with Bronnie the silly old bat completely fails to understand what a nasty piece of work she is. My head hurts enough without enunciating her right wing intolerances and appalling record of sucking on the public teat till it bled.

  15. Sprocket_ says:
    Friday, October 12, 2018 at 7:10 am
    BK

    Scotty is becoming Scotty Everywhere – saturation coverage in all and every media outlet he can find.

    Now if only he could stop talking over interviewers in that shrill, ever rising, ever motormouthing voice. I think unless he can somehow stop this, the coming election campaign will be a disaster.

    And that’s before people understand his policy positions
    ————————————-

    Younger voters may not be aware, and older voters may have forgotten, that a key feature of John Hewson’s approach to his campaign to replace Paul Keating as PM in the 15 months leading up to the March 1993 election was him popping up every single day with a stunt, a sermon or at the head of some rally, holding forth on how all the ills of the day were Keating’s fault. He had all his MP’s sit behind little Aussie flags on their desks on the floor of the House. He even blamed Keating for suicides happening in Australia at one point. None of that did him any good in the election, though.

    My most vivid recollection of Hewson’s antics was when he showed up in a pit crew at Bathurst in 1992, fumbling around changing a tyre “with the guys” in the pit lane. We just sat there booing at the TV set as we watched this.

  18. Big business has entered discussions about a self-regulated suite of measures to help Australia meet its Paris commitments, weeks after the Morrison government abandoned the national energy guarantee.

    The resources minister, Matt Canavan, accused Australia’s biggest energy companies of interfering in the democratic process, as climate experts and environmental groups lashed the government over the development on Thursday.

    “We have a demonstrable way in Australia and western society of resolving fraught political disputes about energy. It’s called democracy and I don’t think the corporate sector is a replacement,” Canavan told a Sydney energy conference.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/11/canavan-condemns-business-emissions-self-regulation-to-meet-paris-target?CMP=share_btn_tw

  20. ‘BK says:
    Friday, October 12, 2018 at 7:32 am

    BW
    Will the frenetic level Morrison’s stunts be enough to lure Bluey out of his hole?’

    I have just checked and Bluey is spewing black ink. He reckons Fuck That! with not getting angry.
    He spends his whole life emptying the chemicals out of his filters, siphoning silt out of cave and painting his coral garden to make it look like it is alive. Bluey reckons that, if Labor holds its nerve, and if the Greens can pull their heads in and/or attack the Liberals instead of Labor, and if the accelerating world economic chaos does not cause panic stations among the proletariat, THEN Bluey is looking forward to a truckload of Schadenfreude.

    So, provided Bluey’s health holds up, he will be on hand to document the Last Days of the Pompous Prosletyser.

  23. lizzie

    Good pick up, IMO.

    ‘The resources minister, Matt Canavan, accused Australia’s biggest energy companies of interfering in the democratic process,…’

    Just when you think this mob have scraped bare the bizarre barrel, Canavan comes out with threatening the industry.

  28. “We have a demonstrable way in Australia and western society of resolving fraught political disputes about energy. It’s called democracy and I don’t think the corporate sector is a replacement,” Canavan told a Sydney energy conference.

    Says the guy who has his position in the LNP and our democratically-elected government as, ‘Minister for Mining’, and as an avatar of the Mining Industry.

  29. If abandoning the tax cuts to big business – because Labor wouldn’t support them – makes it possible to afford the tax cuts to small business earlier I don’t know why Labor aren’t claiming it as a victory for their position and pissing all over Morrison’s parade…..

  30. doyley@8:46am
    “Morrison has unveiled a political masterstroke of genius on Shorten”
    Morrison and MT before him and Abbott before him all seem to unveil one master stroke after another against Shorten.
    Like 2014 budget, like 2016 Double dissolution, like raids on AWU, like 2018 by-elections long campaign.
    Usually when when PMs unveil master strokes, LOTO fell by the way side i.e we use to have one PM and many LOTO in parliamentary cycles. In Shorten case we have many PMs and one LOTO.
    It was funny when LOTOs were replaced regularly but now our country has become a joke.

  31. ‘shellbell says:
    Friday, October 12, 2018 at 7:52 am

    Lizzie

    The Melbourne forecast is always the same.’

    In Melbourne it is not the forecast you have to worry about.

  33. Joyous gruntles emanating from Mordor Media over Demtel Man’s latest sign of ‘genius’. A ‘test for Bill Shorten’ declared in 10,9,8………
    .
    .
    The trap for Shorten has been set
    GEOFF CHAMBERS
    In fast-tracking company tax cuts for business with a turnover up to $50 million, Scott Morrison has hit Bill Shorten where it hurts
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/business-tax-cuts-fasttrack-designed-to-damage-bill-shorten/news-story/dad1b5b78da44d3c9e0f05cf25e86593

  36. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, October 12, 2018 at 9:05 am
    “We have a demonstrable way in Australia and western society of resolving fraught political disputes about energy. It’s called democracy and I don’t think the corporate sector is a replacement,” Canavan told a Sydney energy conference.
    —————————————

    Something Canavan, Morrison & Co will find out the hard way on October 20, and again by next May.

  37. Michael @ #52 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 7:29 am

    Most Australians want gay students to be welcomed and included in the schools their parents send them to.

    Lyle Shelton wants them to face questions about their sex life.

    #WWJD?

    Surely his actual proposal is that all students, straight or gay, be questioned about their sex life and expelled if they say they’re sexually active?

    Only questioning the gay ones is clearly discriminatory.

  40. ar
    Excellent point.
    But, if schoolchildren are sinning in thought word and deed, and are very likely to add lying to sinning, surely there is a technical monitoring fix that could be run by Dutton’s Stasi?

  42. Wow that nostalgia video really does showcase the fact that the late 90s were a horrible period in fashion and Top 40. Vale grunge

  44. a r says:
    Friday, October 12, 2018 at 9:13 am
    Michael @ #52 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 7:29 am

    Most Australians want gay students to be welcomed and included in the schools their parents send them to.

    Lyle Shelton wants them to face questions about their sex life.

    #WWJD?
    Surely his actual proposal is that all students, straight or gay, be questioned about their sex life and expelled if they say they’re sexually active?

    Only questioning the gay ones is clearly discriminatory.
    ————————————

    OK, I’ll fix up my post:

    Most Australians want all students to be welcomed and included in the schools their parents send them to.

    Lyle Shelton wants them to face questions about their sex life.

    #WWJD?

    There: that makes what Shelton says sound better.

    Not.

  45. ar
    I had a disturbing moment in my managers life.
    One of units was after a talented person from another area. But the unit leader reported back that the targetted talent wanted to do some due diligence first.
    What would that involve I wondered aloud.
    It was to check to see how I, as a manager, treated gays.
    It had simply not occurred to me that this could be a consideration.
    I was always focused on recruiting the best of the best. The target recruit joined us…

  46. BW
    On the topic of weather, did you notice the QLD weather lately. Several storm cells have hit QLD in the past one week along with tornado. Imagine the destruction if that tornado had hit a bigger town or city instead of that small village.
    Did you notice that that category 3 storm this week that hit 3 states of USA leaving a trail of destruction.
    I have feeling we are already witnessing in microcosm what will be a regular feature in a decade or two

  47. BK @ #4 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 7:01 am

    David Crowe gets it …

    David Crowe reckons the immigration debates has gone off the rails. And there’s a sting in the tail of the article for the Coalition.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/maddening-moment-in-immigration-debate-20181011-p5092o.html

    Chris Johnson doesn’t …

    Urban specialist Chris Johnson declares that recent statements by NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian that Sydney’s migration intake should be halved indicate a short-term populist policy to appease voters before next year’s state election.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/premier-nsw-infrastructure-growth-immigration-taskforce-20181011-p5093q.html

    It’s not about politics anymore. People are simply waking up.

  49. Boerwar @ #75 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 9:01 am

    KJ
    Cassidy has temporarily not noticed that the much bragged about deficit has disappeared.

    Since that there town in South Australia failed to disappear and Mr Whatsisname suffered transfiguration and reappeared as Mr. Whosit – just in time for the Fabulous and Frenetic female Timelord to appear, my powers of prognostication and understanding (usually in line with the holger/neilson school of revivification* has dematerialized awaiting thoughts and prayers from the great and good (formerly The Rum Corps) to work its restorative powers.

    I now understand (more or less) that when I can’t relate – what the journalist, talking heads are talking about – to my understanding of the real world – then the probability index of bullshit is aproaching 100. This will be rectified quite soon as the compulsory voice stress analyser verisimilitude enhancer scheme comes into effect on the stroke of midnight at the Summer Solstice.

    And so we await further news of cunning plans and/or complete fuckups to delight us as we go about our wet and windy day.

    ☔⛈ 😇

    *
    Revivification
    To impart new life, energy, or spirit to: a new leader who revivified the movement; a celebration that revivified our spirits.

    French revivifier, from Old French, to come back to life, from Latin *revīvificāre, to revivify : Latin re-, re- + Latin vīvificāre, to vivify; see vivify.

    re. · viv′i.

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