BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor

No real change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, except that there is now a Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trend in business.

BludgerTrack has been updated with the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, together with the state breakdowns published earlier this week by Ipsos. This yields only the tiniest change on voting intention, and no change whatsoever on the seat projection.

I’ve also made my first effort to reactivate the leadership ratings, which have been dormant since Malcolm Turnbull’s because there has been insufficient data to generate a trend measure for Scott Morrison. This is still the case with his net approval ratings, for which there are only five data points, but there have been two extra points for the preferred prime minister question, which makes all the difference.

As such, the leadership ratings trends available through the full BludgerTrack display (click below) show separate trend measures on the preferred prime minister chart for the Turnbull-versus-Shorten and Morrison-versus-Shorten eras. This demonstrates that Morrison’s lead over Shorten is more or less the same as Turnbull’s was. I have also finally updated Bill Shorten’s net approval trend, which suggests a very slight improvement since the Liberal leadership change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,373 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 28
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  1. Shift

    Yeah. Despite the fashion it was a good year for Australia Matrix and Bondi Blue Macs. The start of world attention and Morrison was only doing tourism campaigns. Good economic times from Hawke Keating era still strong

  2. V
    I am not sure that the global warming signal is showing statistically for storm activity. There is no doubt, IMO, that it IS showing in most other metrics.

  3. if “PPM adjusted for house advantage” is any guide.

    The preferred Prime Minister is the leader of the party with the higher 2PP.

    Very accurate guide that one. The bigger the 2PP lead the more accurate it gets. (and the closer to unemployment the leader of the other side gets).

  4. [‘Asked last night about Mr Costello’s intervention, the Prime Minister said: “Good on ya, Cossie, thanks for the tip.’]

    Great to see that Morrison is using vernacular. He’s definitely one of the boys.

  5. Ven says: Friday, October 12, 2018 at 9:24 am

    Victoria@9:18am
    What else do you expect. Kayne West is husband of Kim K.

    *********************************************************************

    Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    FUN FACT: There were two mentally unstable men at the White House today usin’ the Oval Office to promote their personal businesses.

    Palmer Report‏Verified account @PalmerReport

    That awkward moment when you only have one black friend, and it’s a crazy asshole like Kanye West

  10. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/11/work-for-the-dole-an-intergenerational-time-bomb-for-indigenous-communities?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Almost 60% of those disengaging with the scheme were under 25, and another 31% were 25-34 year olds, Fowkes told an inquiry into proposed changes to the legislation.
    “The disengagement of this group is extremely troubling, as they are at a critical stage for developing skills and work experience,” Fowkes said. “They’re also the group that has the highest suicide rate and are most likely to come into contact with the criminal justice system.

    “It appears to be particularly younger people relying on families, or presumably some of them are finding other ways of trying to support themselves.
    “The system continually reinforces peoples’ worthlessness.”

  11. poroti:

    [The ‘gay cake’ saga continues.

    Photographers booked for Christian bakers in gay cake case refuse to hand over images in ‘stand against discrimination’]

    Unintended consequences. I suspect they’ll be a lot more.

  12. Congrats to Usman. If it wasn’t such desperate times the selectors probably would have fucked him over again, but class finally told.

    Also a good effort by Head on debut. He has some real weaknesses and has a long way to go but he does have a bit about him. In better times he would rightly be no where near the test side, but can we please just accept he’s going to get found out but the best way for him to get over that is to be shown the sort of patience he would get had his name been Marsh rather than adding him to the sickeningly long list of middle order bats we discard after a couple of bad tests.

    Lastly, I’ve never had a huge wrap on Paine. But that was an outstanding Captain’s knock to see them home. Especially to re settle things after Khawaja fell and Starc and Siddle followed in quick succession. He hasn’t, and probably never will provided the big scores that Gilchrist and Haddin (and even Wade Mk 1 on rare occasions) were capable of, but he is proving harder to get out than those around him. Not a huge achievement granted, but the rebuilding has to start somewhere.

  13. ANZ doing better so far in Committee Hearing. Audience quiet
    ____________________________________________________
    Fess

    Agreed. I am optimistic that Labor can ramp up our position when in government 🙂

  14. OMG Trump cannot be serious!!

    CNNVerified account@CNN
    8m8 minutes ago
    “What he’s gone through and his bravery, he should get a very important medal.” -Trump on Rep. Devin Nunes, a critic of DOJ.

    “Maybe we’ll call it the Medal of Freedom because we actually give them—they’re high awards for civilians, and he’s done amazing.”

  15. Watcha is still watching

    Surely Zoomster is not saying that all or even most fathers would react so dismissively and minimise the offence of a son flicking up a girl’s skirt, as portrayed in the current advert to which she refers.

  17. Watcha @ #96 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 9:52 am

    Watcha is still watching

    Surely Zoomster is not saying that all or even most fathers would react so dismissively and minimise the offence of a son flicking up a girl’s skirt, as portrayed in the current advert to which she refers.

    Portrayal of such events in these types of ads are usually based on solid research.

    The fact that the random audience with Z reacted the way they did is evidence that the ad seemed realistic and resonated with people.

  18. If you have not caught it a good series from Catholic Spain is Elite on Netflix.

    Storyline

    Las Encinas is the most exclusive school in the country- where the Elite sends their children to study. In there, three working-class teens have just been admitted after an earthquake destroyed their school. The clash between those who have everything and those who have nothing to lose creates a perfect storm that ends in a murder. Who committed the crime? Written by FórmulaTV

    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7134908/

  21. Aunt Mavis @ #92 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 9:47 am

    poroti:

    [The ‘gay cake’ saga continues.

    Photographers booked for Christian bakers in gay cake case refuse to hand over images in ‘stand against discrimination’]

    Unintended consequences. I suspect they’ll be a lot more.

    The Photographer may have his arse sued for breach of contract.

    The difference between the two situations is that the bakery never contracted to make the cake. The photographers did contract to take the photos and actually did.

  23. “OMG Trump cannot be serious!!

    What? He’s done amazing. It’s established. No noun required!”

    And he has such a big…….ahhhhh…oh yeah..brain!

  25. ratsak says:
    Friday, October 12, 2018 at 9:27 am
    if “PPM adjusted for house advantage” is any guide.

    The preferred Prime Minister is the leader of the party with the higher 2PP.

    Very accurate guide that one. The bigger the 2PP lead the more accurate it gets. (and the closer to unemployment the leader of the other side gets).
    —————————————

    I agree with all of that. It always intrigued me why political commentators looked for a guide to who people would vote for in the answer to the question “who would you prefer as PM” and not the question “who would you vote for”.

  26. Confessions @ #107 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 9:36 am

    Link for that table.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/10/11/few-countries-are-meeting-paris-climate-goals-here-are-ones-that-are/?utm_term=.b526c7980fa9

    Thanks for that. From an American perspective, it might seem sensible to treat the EU as one “country”, but this is incredibly simplistic. If the individual EU countries were separated out, they would have entries in every column!

  27. And is it just me or are Trump’s comments about wanting to bestow the medal of freedom upon Nunes an admission he may not be re-elected this year?

  29. NBC News‏Verified account @NBCNews

    President Trump directly accused Hillary Clinton of engaging in a conspiracy with Russia to affect the 2016 election during a rally in Pennsylvania.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-accuses-hillary-clinton-colluding-russia-crowd-chants-lock-her-n918836?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

    Hillary Clinton‏Verified account @HillaryClinton

    Seriously, you asked Russia to hack me on national television.

  30. Confessions9:30am
    Glad to know that India(a country with huge population) is in compatible zone.
    Worrying to know that China, Russia and USA are in the highly insufficient to critically insufficient to know zone.
    And Canada (Justin Trudeau) is all talk and in highly insufficient zone. Why is UK not mentioned? Do the creators of this report consider it not to be important like many other smaller nations not mentioned? 🙂

  31. guytaur @ #108 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 9:37 am

    Confessions

    At least we are in the ball park. The Gillard government legacy lives on.

    A country that still gets a substantial amount of it’s electricity from burning brown coal? And with a government that is talking about building more coal-fired power stations?

    We can’t even see the ballpark from where we are!

  33. P1

    I thought you blocked me. Glad you haven’t.

    I agree if the LNP stay in power we will be in the worst offenders part of the table.

  34. Ven says:
    Friday, October 12, 2018 at 10:06 am
    “Why is UK not mentioned? ”
    ————————————-

    The UK is part of the EU.

  36. guytaur @ #133 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 10:09 am

    P1

    I thought you blocked me. Glad you haven’t.

    I only ever had one person permanently blocked. I block others only temporarily.

    I agree if the LNP stay in power we will be in the worst offenders part of the table.

    Indeed. Especially given how much of our fossil fuels we export for other countries to burn. There should be a special column for “global warming enablers”.

  37. @ratsak…I think Tim Paine has curbed his attacking style a little because he knows those before him can be below mediocre at times. The habit of the Aus selectors in dropping players that aren’t named Marsh after a couple of failures is coming home to roost…..ie Matt Renshaw. A way better batter than Finch and he should of been given a lot longer to develop. He is only 24.

  39. Morrison speaking at Bali Memorial. I hope he does not politicise the tragedy. However to my mind his appearing partly does that. Should be left up to the GG.

  41. GG:

    [‘The Photographer may have his arse sued for breach of contract.’]

    I don’t deny that unintended consequences can’t work both ways.

  42. The comments leave Morrison in the precarious position of having stated a principled opposition to religious schools discriminating on the grounds of sexuality while backing a call to enshrine a right to do just that in federal law, albeit with safeguards.

    I don’t think Morrison has thought through his ‘political’ position on religious schools. He’s so desperate to be everyone’s mate that he’s dancing around his own beliefs.

    No better than Turnbull, but from a different base.

  45. Confessions @ #114 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 9:50 am

    OMG Trump cannot be serious!!

    CNNVerified account@CNN
    8m8 minutes ago
    “What he’s gone through and his bravery, he should get a very important medal.” -Trump on Rep. Devin Nunes, a critic of DOJ.

    “Maybe we’ll call it the Medal of Freedom because we actually give them—they’re high awards for civilians, and he’s done amazing.”

    Devin Nunes after 4 years shilling for Trump:

  46. lizzie @ #142 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 10:24 am

    The comments leave Morrison in the precarious position of having stated a principled opposition to religious schools discriminating on the grounds of sexuality while backing a call to enshrine a right to do just that in federal law, albeit with safeguards.

    I don’t think Morrison has thought through his ‘political’ position on religious schools. He’s so desperate to be everyone’s mate that he’s dancing around his own beliefs.

    No better than Turnbull, but from a different base.

    Morrison backing away was expected. It’s what he does every single time an issue arises.

  47. Hello C@t

    Watcha is always watching.

    I have been appointed class monitor by none other than the great Watcha in the sky. She has authorised me to provide a voice where there is the usual silence from the InGroupEchoChamber to outrageous things that other members of the IGEC often post here.

    My appointment in this role is a matter of Divinity.

  50. Diogenes

    I’m not sure of Pratt’s exact words, but if the ‘leaked emails’ were provided to a Senate Committee, they attract Parliamentary Privilige, and the law of the land is that you don’t mess with that, eg

    http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdb/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ppa1987273/

    PARLIAMENTARY PRIVILEGES ACT 1987 – SECT 13 Unauthorised disclosure of evidence

    PARLIAMENTARY PRIVILEGES ACT 1987 – SECT 13

    Unauthorised disclosure of evidence
    A person shall not, without the authority of a House or a committee, publish or disclose:

    (a) a document that has been prepared for the purpose of submission, and submitted, to a House or a committee and has been directed by a House or a committee to be treated as evidence taken in camera; or

    (b) any oral evidence taken by a House or a committee in camera, or a report of any such oral evidence;

    unless a House or a committee has published, or authorised the publication of, that document or that oral evidence.

    Penalty:

    (a) in the case of a natural person, imprisonment for 6 months or 50 penalty units; or

    (b) in the case of a corporation, 250 penalty units.

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