BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor

No real change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, except that there is now a Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trend in business.

BludgerTrack has been updated with the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, together with the state breakdowns published earlier this week by Ipsos. This yields only the tiniest change on voting intention, and no change whatsoever on the seat projection.

I’ve also made my first effort to reactivate the leadership ratings, which have been dormant since Malcolm Turnbull’s because there has been insufficient data to generate a trend measure for Scott Morrison. This is still the case with his net approval ratings, for which there are only five data points, but there have been two extra points for the preferred prime minister question, which makes all the difference.

As such, the leadership ratings trends available through the full BludgerTrack display (click below) show separate trend measures on the preferred prime minister chart for the Turnbull-versus-Shorten and Morrison-versus-Shorten eras. This demonstrates that Morrison’s lead over Shorten is more or less the same as Turnbull’s was. I have also finally updated Bill Shorten’s net approval trend, which suggests a very slight improvement since the Liberal leadership change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,373 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 28
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  1. Congrats to Usman. If it wasn’t such desperate times the selectors probably would have fucked him over again, but class finally told.

    Langer probably would have found a reason to leave Usman out if he still played for NSW.

  3. Can anyone explain the parliamentary privilege that Pratt is saying means the documents the AFP seized have to be given back?

    Will be similar to how they had to give back the stuff they got when they raided Conroy for NBN leaks. The Senate claims the right to summon persons to answer questions and produce documents. It is also contempt to try to interfere with a potential witness. So if the docs are being used by a Senator in the investigation into the au pair matter, or there is a potential witness involved the rozzers will be forced to hand over everything and it can’t be used against the leaker in court.

  4. Watcha @ #147 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 10:40 am

    Hello C@t

    Watcha is always watching.

    I have been appointed class monitor by none other than the great Watcha in the sky. She has authorised me to provide a voice where there is the usual silence from the InGroupEchoChamber to outrageous things that other members of the IGEC often post here.

    My appointment in this role is a matter of Divinity.

    Dude, you need an avatar then. Might I suggest:

    🙂

  5. All the Commonwealth has to do is enact this through COAG

    Recommendation 8
    Jurisdictions should abolish any exceptions to anti-discrimination laws that provide for discrimination by religious schools Edit (substitute bodies) with respect to students on the basis of race, disability, pregnancy or intersex status.

    GG

    What basis is there for Race to be exempt from discrimination laws for religious bodies?

    If none then same applies for LGBTI people.

  6. I gather Watcha is the latest persona of the character who variously has called himself Wayne … and others that currently escape my memory (one tends to dismiss that which is inconsequential) …

    Since he claims divine support he can also be safely dismissed, as divinity is a construct that has no bearing on reality.

  7. C@tmomma @ #149 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 10:45 am

    Aunt Mavis @ #141 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 10:23 am

    GG:

    [‘The Photographer may have his arse sued for breach of contract.’]

    I don’t deny that unintended consequences can’t work both ways.

    The Christian Institute have already said they are okay with it, and isn’t it just a great example of freedom of speech? 🙂

    C@tmomma @ #149 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 10:45 am

    Aunt Mavis @ #141 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 10:23 am

    GG:

    [‘The Photographer may have his arse sued for breach of contract.’]

    I don’t deny that unintended consequences can’t work both ways.

    The Christian Institute have already said they are okay with it, and isn’t it just a great example of freedom of speech? 🙂

    My point stands.

    However, showing grace and understanding is a good thing too!

  8. SK

    I am no great fan of langer, even as a WA person.

    but last time I looked he is not sole selector.

    And he wasn’t even the National coach when Usman was on the outer before.

  9. Labor should just do with the Home Affairs leaker what the Coalition did with Godwin Grech. Disappear them into a local facility until their ‘mental health’ improves.

  10. @rightsagenda tweets

    MEDIA ALERT: With the release today of 20 recommendations from the religious freedoms review, LGBT advocates, @MagdaSzubanski and human rights experts will respond.

    Date: Friday 12 October
    Time: 11.30am AEDT
    Location: Collins St Baptist Church, 174 Collins St, Melbourne VIC 3000

  11. Of course, Dutton and MotorMoSco must realise that looking like a bunch of Stormtropers bent on revenge against any poor schmuck in the Public Service who dares leak their amoral behaviours to the Opposition, is not a good look before a crucial by-election and with a federal election in the offing?

  13. GG:

    ‘I don’t deny that unintended consequences can’t work both ways.’

    – is amended by deleting “can’t” and replacing it with “can”.

    Thank you for correcting me. I’m sure you didn’t derive any pleasure thereof.

    I’m going out for a while but look forward to your critique of the Ruddock Review. I predicting that with the release of it, the cake case will take a back seat. I refuse to preempt your view of this rubbish report.

    ********************************************************************************

    Cat:

    Noted and agree.

  14. @richardbranson tweets

    #FairTreatmentAU https://twitter.com/fairtreatmentau/status/1050514023349813248

    @FairTreatmentAU tweets

    Today we’re launching the reform on drugs with our guest speaker, Sir Richard Branson. Join our lifestream on Facebook from 11am for a conversation on drug law reform with Sir Richard Branson, Dr Khalid Tinasti and Dr Marianne Jauncey #FairTreatmentAU https://twitter.com/FairTreatmentAU/status/1050514023349813248/photo/1

  16. The Ruddock Report excerpts have been leaked to distract from the IPCC report and for Morrison and the Libs to sure up their base. So lots of vision and noise but no actual action. There is no chance that any of the recommendations will be adopted because it won’t get through the Party Room or the Parliament. Any proposal to change anything will be excoriated in public debate. This is not a very brave Government. This is an issue where bravery is required.

  18. …oh, and love the double standards, Watcha. On one hand, if everyone doesn’t get outraged by an (allegedly) non PC statement, they’re hypocritical moral worms. On the other hand, if someone makes a PC statement, they’re impugning half the population.

    If you want to be class monitor, you need to be more consistent in your rulings. At present, they don’t seem to be based on a genuine moral position, but a ‘I don’t like these particular posters, so therefore they must be wrong’ reaction.

  19. GG:

    [‘It may be a simple premise. But you seem to have difficulties communicating what you mean.’]

    Yes, I got it wrong and admitted same in a further post.

    And, again, thank you for highlighting my error.

    [‘Is English your second language?’]

    Yes, my first is Latin but I can’t find anyone else who speaks it fluently. Are you able to assist, or are you aware of anyone who can? I’ll never forgive Anglicans for ditching the Latin Mass.

  20. Greensborough Growler says:
    Friday, October 12, 2018 at 11:11 am
    Barrie’s almost calling the Wentworth by-election.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1050533211938246656
    ————————————-

    Can’t disagree with anything Barrie Cassidy said there.

    I would add (as I suppose it would be immodest for Barrie to) that Wentworth has one of the highest audiences for the ABC in the country, and the issue of Liberal Government interference in its news and current affairs content has recently created a very poor look for the Government as well.

    Cassidy also gives us a timely reminder how, without Malcolm Turnbull’s personal vote that had built up since 2004, Wentworth had become a marginal seat in ALP-Lib TPP terms, the Lib margin falling to a precarious 2.5% over Labor. I keep saying: do not write off Tim Murray in this by-election.

    On that score, the absence in Cassidy’s account of any mention of Heath, Phelps, and other minor party candidates was conspicuous.

  21. GG

    Actually the report has not been released. Its been leaked.

    There is a difference. Morrison may not want this debate now but he has got it. Just like Marriage Equality it’s happening now.

  22. Here’s a primer on how the Ruddock Report will be analysed.

    “Let’s face it: throwing kids out of school for being gay is disgusting. Not for a long, long time has such an idea been respectable in this country. But in 2018 Philip Ruddock’s religious freedom review has kept it on the table”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/11/the-right-to-expel-children-from-school-isnt-about-freedom-its-about-cruelty?CMP=soc_568

  23. Aunt Mavis @ #169 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 11:27 am

    GG:

    [‘It may be a simple premise. But you seem to have difficulties communicating what you mean.’]

    Yes, I got it wrong and admitted same in a further post.

    And, again, thank you for highlighting my error.

    [‘Is English your second language?’]

    Yes, my first is Latin but I can’t find anyone else who speaks it fluently. Are you able to assist, or are you aware of anyone who can? I’ll never forgive Anglicans for ditching the Latin Mass.

    Not really. But my kids do speak perfect latte!

  28. jenauthor @ #156 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 10:59 am

    I gather Watcha is the latest persona of the character who variously has called himself Wayne … and others that currently escape my memory (one tends to dismiss that which is inconsequential) …

    Since he claims divine support he can also be safely dismissed, as divinity is a construct that has no bearing on reality.

    😆

    I was thinking ESJ myself.

  30. The kicker in that press release from Chris Bowen and Bill Shorten is, ‘The Liberals haven’t paid for the bringing forward of the tax cuts to small and medium-sized business, but Labor will.’

    🙂

  31. “Labor matching LNP tax cuts.

    No higher taxes mantra for Morrison”

    Having read the press release upthread on this.

    So much for the latest “big test” for Shorten then?? ALP have clearly said what they will do and have given specifics on how they will pay for it. Bit of a ScoMoo fizzle wot?? 🙂

  33. guytaur:
    Friday, October 12, 2018 at 11:42 am
    ————————————-

    Thanks for that, G.

    Well, that “wedge” lasted not even a whole morning. What a “master stroke” that was from the PR PM. Labor gets to prove to small business they have nothing to fear from a Labor Government, and also to remind everyone the Liberal Government is just waiting for the next opportune moment to strike with their obscene cash splash to the big banks and multinationals. Great work, you marketing geniuses!

  34. Lol. Barrie Cassidy continues the media’s hagiography of Malcolm Turnbull, describing Mr Turnbull as ‘a small-l Liberal’. Capital-H Hollow Man, more like.

    Zero accomplishments in over 14 years as an MP and several years before that as Federal Liberal Party treasurer, except for actively facilitating – whether overtly or incompetently – the Liberal Party into a repository of extremist radical far right IPA and religious nutters.

  38. Not a fan of any of this corporate tax cut Malarkey, but isn’t it nice to be the LOTO and blessed with a shit load of money due to courageous revenue measures previously taken so that you can just yawn and swat down a bug like Morrison when he tries on a pathetic wedge?

    Loved the recycling of the old ‘test for Shorten’ shite they used to use to mark Trumble’s latest reset. ScoMo’s resets are going to be just as effective.

  39. poroti @ #185 Friday, October 12th, 2018 – 11:58 am

    How ‘progressive’ of them.
    .
    Labor will keep anti-gay laws

    Tanya Plibersek says Labor has no plans to abolish Gillard era exemptions which allow religious schools to reject gay students and staff
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/crossbencher-supports-motion-to-strip-discriminative-schools-of-funding/news-story/d35b376f77e5d2790100c1f6563e337f

    They’re not stupid, poroti. I think it comes under the heading, ‘Not wanting to cut your nose off despite your face’.

  40. C@t
    You can claim immunity from prosecution in the host country (Turkey) but not in the embassies country (Saudi) but the Saudis won’t do anything.

  43. Poroti

    If McGowan closes the loophole in Western Australia by matching Tasmania then the churches will avoid a debate about strings attached to funding of their institutions and keep their “special” status in society.

    Thats their minimum damage to their status in society they need to pursue if they want to keep that “special” status. They can’t stop equality but like in the UK they can try and keep limit that equality

  48. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, October 12, 2018 at 11:47 am
    The kicker in that press release from Chris Bowen and Bill Shorten is, ‘The Liberals haven’t paid for the bringing forward of the tax cuts to small and medium-sized business, but Labor will.’
    ————————————-

    Yes. As usual, Labor will try to actually address the underlying budget bottom line, while the Liberals are content to rest on their unearned reputation for sound fiscal stewardship, born of their good timing in winning a string of elections during the revenue-rich international Long Boom of 1992-2008, and losing just before that boom ended.

    I wonder whether the AFR, Oz, Sky, or Jones/Hadley/Bolt will pursue any Coalition Government figures over their fiscal slackness relative to Labor?

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