Further Friday free-for-all

Amid an otherwise quiet week for polling, a privately conducted ReachTEL poll offers further evidence the Liberals are on shaky ground in Wentworth.

It’s been a quiet week on the poll front, and indeed it’s worth noting that polling generally is thinner on the ground than it used to be – the once weekly Essential Research series went fortnightly at the start of the year, neither Sky News nor Seven has been treating us to federal ReachTEL polls like they used to, and even the Fairfax-Ipsos poll has pared back its sample sizes in recent times from 1400 to 1200. I suspect we won’t be getting the normally-fortnightly Newspoll on Sunday night either, as these are usually timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament, for which we will have to wait another week. I can at least relate the following:

• The Guardian has results from a ReachTEL poll of Wentworth conducted for independent candidate Licia Heath, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 727. After exclusion of the 5.6% undecided the results are Dave Sharma (Liberal) 43.0%; Tim Murray (Labor) 20.7%; Kerryn Phelps (independent) 17.9%; Licia Heath (independent) 10.0% and Dominic Wy Kanak (Greens) 6.6%. The poll also comes with a 51-49 Liberal-versus-Labor two-party result, but this a) assumes Tim Murray would not be overtaken by Kerryn Phelps after allocation of preferences, and b) credits Labor with over three-quarters of independent and minor party preferences, which seems highly implausible. The poll also reportedly finds “as many as 52% of people said high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals made it less likely they would give her their vote”, but this would seem to be a complex issue given Phelps’s flip-flop on the subject.

• The Guardian also has results of polling by ReachTEL for the Australian Education Union on the federal goverment’s funding deal for Catholic and independent schools, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1261 respondents in Corangamite, Dunkley, Forde, Capricornia, Flynn, Gilmore, Robertson and Banks. The report dwells too much on what the small sub-sample of undecided voters thought, but it does at least relate that 38.6% of all respondents said the deal made them less likely to vote Liberal.

• Back to Wentworth, I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey, and took part in a mostly Wentworth-related podcast yesterday with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, along with Georgia Tkachuk of Collins Gartrell, which you can access below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,606 comments on “Further Friday free-for-all”

  1. JimmyD @ #1542 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 8:24 pm

    adrian
    And Mr Normal was the one who claimed that the Royal Commission into institutionalised child sexual abuse would be a waste of time and money!

    LOL, another example of GG’s “well earned” moderate reputation, apparently.

    So we spent $500 mill to find out what we already knew.

    Money better spent on schools and hospitals imho.

    The only people that have benefited are the lawyers and enablers.

  2. rhwombat @ #1524 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:04 pm

    Late Riser @ #1495 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 6:24 pm

    rhwombat, I don’t know about your Z axis. But I should dig out some theories on human behaviour that included 16 categories based on four dimensions. I’ll have to look it up.

    That’s Myers-Briggs Type Indicator personality testing – para-religious Jungian psychobabble adapted for Management drones and the McCarthyist purges of post WW2 US. It’s bullshit. There was an excellent RN Big Ideas podcast on the subject a couple of weeks ago. Worth looking up.

    That sounds about right. It was aimed at ‘leadership’. I think it was more recent than McCarthy though. Late 1990s era. I’ll look for the RN podcast.

  3. Millennial @ #1555 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 8:33 pm

    So I’ve collected everybody’s compass scores and made a new, 2018 edition of the Poll Bludger Poster Political Compass.

    I’ve also added some 2015 scores to the graph if you’ve given a compass score in both 2015 and 2018, to see where you have “progressed”:
    https://www.desmos.com/calculator/xsqv7f0xuc

    PNG version:
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    I’m still nearest the pin. My reputation for being the most moderate poster on PB is confirmed.

  4. I’m sure I completed that survey in 2015 but obviously not. I’ve done it a few times now, and from memory each time I land somewhere differently on the graph.

  5. GG
    You’re really struggling now, aren’t you?

    I think you’ll find it’s you who is struggling.

    You have smeared the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse, a body that has given voice to those who have been silenced for decades, you support the suppression of a woman’s right to make decisions regarding her body, and you opposed marriage equality, which was supported by nearly two thirds of Australians.

    And yet you continue to delude yourself that you somehow represent moderate or centrist views.

  6. Boerwar:

    Please stop overstating the matter, the Dutch being the worst, most cruellest colonisits, apart from the Belgiums.

    From your part of the world, youse have heaps to answer for.

  7. Millennial, it looks to me like you’ve got the axes the other way around from what the Political Compass website has, so that economic is up/down rather than right/left. Which isn’t wrong necessarily, but it may be confusing.

  8. JimmyD @ #1560 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 8:41 pm

    GG
    You’re really struggling now, aren’t you?

    I think you’ll find it’s you who is struggling.

    You have smeared the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse, a body that has given voice to those who have been silenced for decades, you support the suppression of a woman’s right to make decisions regarding her body, and you opposed marriage equality, which was supported by nearly two thirds of Australians.

    And yet you continue to delude yourself that you somehow represent moderate or centrist views.

    After all is said and done, a lot more is ever said than done.

    Apart from looking after vested interests like lawyers and enablers the only other people that seem to have benefitted from the RC are the prurient and the hand ringers.

    Not sure where you fit in to the picture.

  9. I’m always been a bit skeptical about these sorts of things, but may as well give it a go:

    Economic Left/Right: -6.38
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.26

  10. ENFP.

    MB is a useful tool to understand some differences between people (e.g. E-I, J-P), including my wife*. Having said that, it’s only other use is to help recognize a lack of diversity in teams (in terms of different types of people). It should never be used to select the “right” personality for the job.

    * My wife is an introvert as per the MB definition. Knowing that helps me understand why, when we’re in Japan right now, she would prefer to have dinner in our room after a long and tiring day.

  11. GG, you may be ‘nearest the pin’, but you’re losing on ‘the longest drive’. Even my local priest, an arch conservative, described the RC as an answer for help from the church.

  12. Outside Left @ #1571 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 8:53 pm

    GG, you may be ‘nearest the pin’, but you’re losing on ‘the longest drive’. Even my local priest, an arch conservative, described the RC as an answer for help from the church.

    $500 mill answer?

    The issues were known, the policy changes were already happening and all we got was a couple of years of telling us what we already knew.

  13. William Bowe @ #1562 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:45 pm

    Millennial, it looks to me like you’ve got the axes the other way around from what the Political Compass website has, so that economic is up/down rather than right/left. Which isn’t wrong necessarily, but it may be confusing.

    I just checked and… I got the axes labelled the wrong way around.

    Oops.

    Here’s with them the right way around:

  14. GG
    After all is said and done, a lot more is ever said than done.

    Apart from looking after vested interests like lawyers and enablers the only other people that seem to have benefitted from the RC are the prurient and the hand ringers.

    I find it exceedingly interesting that your talking points in dismissing the Royal Commission into Child Sex Abuse are identical to those of the Coalition in regards to the Financial Services Royal Commission.

    You share one tactic in common with the Coalition – when you don’t like the truth, you attack the messenger.

  15. Millennial – it would be cool to have the last Australian election placement of the parties on the graph, although obviously the + + quadrant that includes Labor National and Liberal doesn’t include any of us bludgers, which is a little odd.

    I’m not sure about mapping the parties policies to an equivalent result to those questions. And obviously there can be a 100 miles between what you say and what you do, but I don’t see how the LNP can seriously have a pin for nationals and a pin for liberals.

  16. After all is said and done, a lot more is ever said than done.

    Apart from looking after vested interests like lawyers and enablers the only other people that seem to have benefitted from the RC are the prurient and the hand ringers.

    Interesting that you neglect to mention the victims at all here.

  17. @Billie

    Re parabolic urine flows. In the ladies public toilets in Singapore there is always a urinal at kindy height with a plastic bee for the boys to aim at

    That is just gorgeous. Do they have them in the airport? I will look next time I am passing through.

  18. bc @ #1568 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 8:49 pm

    ENFP.

    MB is a useful tool to understand some differences between people (e.g. E-I, J-P), including my wife*. Having said that, it’s only other use is to help recognize a lack of diversity in teams (in terms of different types of people). It should never be used to select the “right” personality for the job.

    * My wife is an introvert as per the MB definition. Knowing that helps me understand why, when we’re in Japan right now, she would prefer to have dinner in our room after a long and tiring day.

    In the 1990’s I was an INFJ. The problem with the MBTI is its poor reliability and validity. I have changed one response and gotten a different profile. Having said that, it is still a useful tool to explaining individual differences in a work environment and the impact that can have on team work/management style.

  19. Wow! I am a left-wing anarchist on the Political Compass.

    I am

    Prince Pyotr Kropotkin (+2,0)
    Emma Goldman (0,+2)
    Noam Chomsky (-1,-1)

    Closest to Noam Chomsky by the width of a bee’s dick. Very happy with that!

  20. JimmyD @ #1574 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 8:58 pm

    GG
    After all is said and done, a lot more is ever said than done.

    Apart from looking after vested interests like lawyers and enablers the only other people that seem to have benefitted from the RC are the prurient and the hand ringers.

    I find it exceedingly interesting that your talking points in dismissing the Royal Commission into Child Sex Abuse are identical to those of the Coalition in regards to the Financial Services Royal Commission.

    You share one tactic in common with the Coalition – when you don’t like the truth, you attack the messenger.

    If you haven’t notice the Heyne RC has not gone through every Bank or Insurance Company. Rather they have sampled. I can assure you that it’s only the tip of a huge iceberg.

    The RC in to Financial Services was instigated by the Banks who have worked out that short term damage to their reputations will yield long term consolidation of their dominant positions in the Australian economy.

    The changes that I’ve seen so far will lead to less competition and restrictions on the ability of people and businesses to obtain finance.

    It’s interesting you go for the visuals again rather than the substance.

    The culture within this sector must change. the only way change will be effected is through prison sentences for criminal behaviour and some regulators prepared to do their job.

  21. Without wanting to take sides in the “closest to the pin” argument, I would like to point out these excerpts from the FAQ on the Political Compass.

    The timeless universal centre should not be confused with merely the present national average.

    https://www.politicalcompass.org/faq#faq23

    So the centre (0,0) does not necessarily represent the average Australian voter. I wonder where the bulk of Australian voters lie on this map?

    Unfortunately they also say this.

    such data would tell us nothing about the political position of a particular population; it would only tell us about the type of person who volunteered to have their result recorded.

    https://www.politicalcompass.org/faq#faq7

    I’m not sure what to make of this. It must be difficult to decide if your personal score means anything if you don’t know who you are comparing it with.

  22. It seems they score me close to Bernie Sanders. I would rate Bernie a fair way to the left of me economically (I support single payer healthcare as the Americans say, but I’m against protectionism). I definitely wouldn’t call myself a socialist, as Bernie does (although I suspect the definition of socialist is a little different in the US compared to the rest of the world).

  23. GG
    The culture within this sector must change. the only way change will be effected is through prison sentences for criminal behaviour and some regulators prepared to do their job.

    I certainly agree with you on that.

  24. WeWantPaul @ #1575 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 8:01 pm

    Millennial – it would be cool to have the last Australian election placement of the parties on the graph, although obviously the + + quadrant that includes Labor National and Liberal doesn’t include any of us bludgers, which is a little odd.

    Yeah, so the people who created the political compass quiz engineered in so that anybody who tried it with even the most vaguely-defined left-wing sympathies would always find themselves deep in the bottom-left quadrant; then tell said person that the closest political party is some left-wing minor party and the 2/3 big parties are “just the same”.

    See:
    https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Political_Compass

  25. Sorry if this sounds obtuse, but where on Political Compass are people here finding the scores of famous figures from history, politics and so on?

  26. GG:

    Please stop impliedly condoning sexual assualts by the Catholic clergly against the young, the innocents – you’re a hiding to nowhere with this.

  27. GG, It is interesting to note that you totally disagree with Sister Monica Cavanagh, the president of Catholic Religious Australia, and Australian Catholic Bishops Conference president Archbishop Mark Coleridge in their response, published on 31 August 2018.
    To quote https://catholicoutlook.org/the-catholic-church-response-to-the-royal-commission/
    “Catholic leaders have today announced they accept 98 per cent of the recommendations of the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse and have vowed that the Church’s shameful history will never be repeated.

    Josephite Sister Monica Cavanagh, the president of Catholic Religious Australia, and Australian Catholic Bishops Conference president Archbishop Mark Coleridge have today released a joint response, expressing their deep sorrow that vulnerable children were abused, weren’t believed and weren’t supported when seeking justice.

    READ: The ACBC and CRA Response to the Royal Commission

    Sr Monica said the Royal Commission “was an important and necessary period for the Australian community” and expressed gratitude to the survivors “whose courage in coming forward and telling their stories will mean that the Church and society will be safer in the future”.

    “The process is already under way to reform the Church’s practices to ensure that safeguarding is integral in all that we do as part of our ministry and outreach in the community,” Sr Monica said.

    “Making the Church a safer place for our children and vulnerable persons is at the heart of our commitment to mission.”

    Archbishop Coleridge said many changes had been made since the horrific reality of child sexual abuse became known, but they were sometimes too slow and too timid.

    “Too many priests, brothers, sisters and lay people in Australia failed in their duty to protect and honour the dignity of all, including, and especially, the most vulnerable – our children and our young people,” Archbishop Coleridge said.

    “Many bishops failed to listen, failed to believe, and failed to act. Those failures allowed some abusers to offend again and again, with tragic and sometimes fatal consequences. The bishops and leaders of religious orders pledge today: Never again.”

    Well GG, for the record, who is bullshitting, you or them?

    It is also worth noting that the number of those identifying as Roman Catholic in Aus fell by 10% to 22.6% of the population, between the 2011 and 2016 censuses, while us ‘no religionists’ grew by 33% to 30.1% of the population over the same period. Rational people now outnumber papists by 33%. We are a bloody sight more average than you are.

  28. “Andrew Earlwood

    Have I missed your response on high speed rail?”

    No Cud Chewer, you haven’t missed anything. I’ve just had a very busy and tiring week and there is actually a lot of good stuff you posted for me to unpack and I just haven’t been up to it.

  29. “GG
    The culture within this sector must change. the only way change will be effected is through prison sentences for criminal behaviour and some regulators prepared to do their job.”

    Yep I agree, the Catholic priest sector should face criminal charges.

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