Further Friday free-for-all

Amid an otherwise quiet week for polling, a privately conducted ReachTEL poll offers further evidence the Liberals are on shaky ground in Wentworth.

It’s been a quiet week on the poll front, and indeed it’s worth noting that polling generally is thinner on the ground than it used to be – the once weekly Essential Research series went fortnightly at the start of the year, neither Sky News nor Seven has been treating us to federal ReachTEL polls like they used to, and even the Fairfax-Ipsos poll has pared back its sample sizes in recent times from 1400 to 1200. I suspect we won’t be getting the normally-fortnightly Newspoll on Sunday night either, as these are usually timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament, for which we will have to wait another week. I can at least relate the following:

• The Guardian has results from a ReachTEL poll of Wentworth conducted for independent candidate Licia Heath, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 727. After exclusion of the 5.6% undecided the results are Dave Sharma (Liberal) 43.0%; Tim Murray (Labor) 20.7%; Kerryn Phelps (independent) 17.9%; Licia Heath (independent) 10.0% and Dominic Wy Kanak (Greens) 6.6%. The poll also comes with a 51-49 Liberal-versus-Labor two-party result, but this a) assumes Tim Murray would not be overtaken by Kerryn Phelps after allocation of preferences, and b) credits Labor with over three-quarters of independent and minor party preferences, which seems highly implausible. The poll also reportedly finds “as many as 52% of people said high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals made it less likely they would give her their vote”, but this would seem to be a complex issue given Phelps’s flip-flop on the subject.

• The Guardian also has results of polling by ReachTEL for the Australian Education Union on the federal goverment’s funding deal for Catholic and independent schools, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1261 respondents in Corangamite, Dunkley, Forde, Capricornia, Flynn, Gilmore, Robertson and Banks. The report dwells too much on what the small sub-sample of undecided voters thought, but it does at least relate that 38.6% of all respondents said the deal made them less likely to vote Liberal.

• Back to Wentworth, I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey, and took part in a mostly Wentworth-related podcast yesterday with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, along with Georgia Tkachuk of Collins Gartrell, which you can access below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,606 comments on “Further Friday free-for-all”

  1. JimmyD, I think that you have to be pretty insecure to claim bragging rights as a result of some dodgy online American survey.

    And Mr Normal was the one who claimed that the Royal Commission into institutionalised child sexual abuse would be a waste of time and money!

  2. JimmyD @ #1498 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:29 pm

    GG,

    I have no idea how I rate nor do I care. I’ve made no claim to being a moderate, though my social views would be far more moderate than yours.

    The only person I’ve seen virtue signalling recently is you about your extremist position on abortion, which goes to show that the only thing you’re in the middle of is your own nonsense.

    Oh, hit me with your swizzle stick!

    Everyone knows I’m the connection to the real world this blog needs.

  3. adrian @ #1501 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:33 pm

    JimmyD, I think that you have to be pretty insecure to claim bragging rights as a result of some dodgy online American survey.

    And Mr Normal was the one who claimed that the Royal Commission into institutionalised child sexual abuse would be a waste of time and money!

    It’s as easy as ABC.

  4. Sharma’s pals doing dirty tricks against Phelps:

    Yup. Posted about this pamphlet on Thursday at 1.47pm.

    Amongst other things, it’s interesting The Guardian continues to publish so many articles relating to Candidate Phelps. Wonder if Labor might have had a comment about the pamphlet, should, of course, they had been asked?

  5. GG
    Wanting the state to have control over the bedroom and women’s bodies is probable what done you in. Not sure it is something tobe proud of.

  6. Player One @ #1506 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:37 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1504 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:35 pm

    DaretoTread @ #1499 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:31 pm

    GG
    it is a us blog so the middle is a bit further right than in Australia

    That’s your feather. I hope you can fly with it!

    DTT only has a right wing feather. So she ends up flying in circles 🙂

    I’ve noticed. There are a number of fellow travelers on PB.

  7. Eunoe,
    It is likely that, as the shit sheet was directed at Kerryn Phelps that The Guardian sought her views about it. I read the article and it does also speak about Tim Murray’s corflutes being pulled down by the ‘Black Ops, Yay!’ Young Lieberals as well. 🙂

  8. I also found this tres amusing from the same article:

    Meanwhile, Katter’s Australian party (KAP) disendorsed candidate Robert Callanan after the Sunday Telegraph revealed he was a former director of a company associated with a high-class brothel.

    Callanan, from Bellevue Hill, was described as the owner of an accountancy business, a treasurer of the Sydney United soccer club and a former member of the army reserve. His CV did not disclose his directorship of Sydney Best Catering Pty Ltd, which has the same ABN number as The Penthouse – The Ultimate Gentlemen’s Club in Sydney’s Pitt Street.

    😆

  9. C@tmomma @ #1512 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:46 pm

    GG,
    We know your position re abortion, but why must you belittle others in order to defend it?

    If you have not noticed there are plenty belittling my esteemed position as the most normal person on this blog.

    My extreme centrist views prevail in the wider community if not here on PB.

  10. Hi C@tmomma

    The Guardian article did note the sophomoric corflute shenanigans. It also allowed Dr Phelps to whinge about her ‘horrible’ photo and seemed to me happily relaxed in using the phrase ‘Labor stooge’ (as in ‘the leaflet insinuates she is a Labor stooge and could deliver government to Labor’ – thereby managing both the amplify the Libs’ PR and effectively deride Labor; thus my observation regarding the apparent failure to seek comment from Labor about the pamphlet).

  11. Late Riser @ #1495 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 6:24 pm

    rhwombat, I don’t know about your Z axis. But I should dig out some theories on human behaviour that included 16 categories based on four dimensions. I’ll have to look it up.

    That’s Myers-Briggs Type Indicator personality testing – para-religious Jungian psychobabble adapted for Management drones and the McCarthyist purges of post WW2 US. It’s bullshit. There was an excellent RN Big Ideas podcast on the subject a couple of weeks ago. Worth looking up.

  12. Callanan, from Bellevue Hill, was described as the owner of an accountancy business, a treasurer of the Sydney United soccer club and a former member of the army reserve. His CV did not disclose his directorship of Sydney Best Catering Pty Ltd, which has the same ABN number as The Penthouse – The Ultimate Gentlemen’s Club in Sydney’s Pitt Street.

    It looks like “Sydney Best Catering” wasn’t about food but about you know what! I wonder how many genteel ladies from Double Bay received a surprise when a scantily dressed persona jumped out of the birthday cake?

  13. GG:

    The figures don’t lie, I’m the closest to the middle on this blog.

    Read it and weep.

    ______________________

    I agree completely. You are very average.

  14. GG

    I have NOT belittled you for your position and respect your right to hold those views. How about you stop belittling me.

    My point was simply that there are a number of questions on that test where even the most right wing of Australians would not score highly or not many. The health care one is so very USA, as is the Capital punishment and I think the public broadcasting and a few others. This test is no where near as US centric as the last one – eg no gun control but I think that it still skews a little to the right by Australian standards. My guess would be that the middle in Australia would be -1, -1 or thereabouts. Far fewer people are religious.

  15. DaretoTread @ #1530 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 8:07 pm

    GG

    I have NOT belittled you for your position and respect your right to hold those views. How about you stop belittling me.

    My point was simply that there are a number of questions on that test where even the most right wing of Australians would not score highly or not many. The health care one is so very USA, as is the Capital punishment and I think the public broadcasting and a few others. This test is no where near as US centric as the last one – eg no gun control but I think that it still skews a little to the right by Australian standards. My guess would be that the middle in Australia would be -1, -1 or thereabouts. Far fewer people are religious.

    It’s pretty simple. Whenever you go to “guess” or ‘gut feel”, I know you are talking crap.

    Most of the time, I ignore your stuff these days.

    You have a right to post. I have a right to ignore.

  16. GG
    My extreme centrist views prevail in the wider community if not here on PB.

    No they don’t, as the marriage equality vote proved.

    Your pretensions to moderate views are about as convincing as Morrison’s efforts.

  17. JimmyD @ #1539 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 8:15 pm

    GG
    My extreme centrist views prevail in the wider community if not here on PB.

    No they don’t, as the marriage equality vote proved.

    Your pretensions to moderate views are about as convincing as Morrison’s efforts.

    I’m used to left wing extremists like you trying to sully my well earned reputation as the most moderate person on PB.

    The numbers don’t lie. But, you do!

  18. Eunoe,
    I’m realistic about the attitudinal bias wrt Labor. Plus, Kerryn Phelps would be their ideal candidate. 🙂

    Frankly, I would be ecstatic if Labor pushed into 2nd place, or even came through the middle after Phelps and Sharma split each others vote!

  19. adrian
    And Mr Normal was the one who claimed that the Royal Commission into institutionalised child sexual abuse would be a waste of time and money!

    LOL, another example of GG’s “well earned” moderate reputation, apparently.

  20. ‘poroti says:
    Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 8:12 pm

    Boerwar

    Abbott fanboi Sheridan pines for teh Polish guy or even Benny the Rat. How sad.’

    Sheridan does not address my two main criticisms of Francis:
    1. He is standing by while child sexual abuse in countries like the PI continues unabated.
    2. He fails to release the documents that would clean out thousands of perps globally.

    To cognoscenti, however, the spark that might yet ignite a schism, or even numerous schisms, is the way in which Francis plays fast and loose with matters doctrinal.

  21. AM
    The DLP was 100% right about Stalin and Kruschev.
    The Left of the day were almost uniformly and grossly wrong about those mass murdering thugs.

  22. GG

    I would back my gut against yours any day and indeed 99% on this blog.

    You think you are “normal” but in fact you are a religious hardliner. That is your right BUT you are delusional if you think that places you near the middle. Economically I would think you probably ARE in the middle of Australians but socially less so.

    So ignore me if you choose – your right. Now since your comments are predictable and boring but mercifully short I have had no need to ignore you.

  23. GG – if you see the truth as “sullying” your alleged reputation, then your alleged reputation certainly wasn’t well earned.

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