It’s been a quiet week on the poll front, and indeed it’s worth noting that polling generally is thinner on the ground than it used to be – the once weekly Essential Research series went fortnightly at the start of the year, neither Sky News nor Seven has been treating us to federal ReachTEL polls like they used to, and even the Fairfax-Ipsos poll has pared back its sample sizes in recent times from 1400 to 1200. I suspect we won’t be getting the normally-fortnightly Newspoll on Sunday night either, as these are usually timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament, for which we will have to wait another week. I can at least relate the following:
• The Guardian has results from a ReachTEL poll of Wentworth conducted for independent candidate Licia Heath, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 727. After exclusion of the 5.6% undecided the results are Dave Sharma (Liberal) 43.0%; Tim Murray (Labor) 20.7%; Kerryn Phelps (independent) 17.9%; Licia Heath (independent) 10.0% and Dominic Wy Kanak (Greens) 6.6%. The poll also comes with a 51-49 Liberal-versus-Labor two-party result, but this a) assumes Tim Murray would not be overtaken by Kerryn Phelps after allocation of preferences, and b) credits Labor with over three-quarters of independent and minor party preferences, which seems highly implausible. The poll also reportedly finds “as many as 52% of people said high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals made it less likely they would give her their vote”, but this would seem to be a complex issue given Phelps’s flip-flop on the subject.
• The Guardian also has results of polling by ReachTEL for the Australian Education Union on the federal goverment’s funding deal for Catholic and independent schools, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1261 respondents in Corangamite, Dunkley, Forde, Capricornia, Flynn, Gilmore, Robertson and Banks. The report dwells too much on what the small sub-sample of undecided voters thought, but it does at least relate that 38.6% of all respondents said the deal made them less likely to vote Liberal.
• Back to Wentworth, I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey, and took part in a mostly Wentworth-related podcast yesterday with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, along with Georgia Tkachuk of Collins Gartrell, which you can access below.
Ven @ #20911 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 5:21 pm
Postal vote. And yes I am eligible and vote in OZ elections.
poroti @ #1441 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 6:23 pm
Read it and weep.
You can’t handle the truth that I am the most moderate person on this blog.
poroti @ #1447 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 6:26 pm
It’s sad that you’re not anywhere to be seen.
Why is that?
BK: consider it humbly corrected.
Greensborough Growler @ #20698 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 5:15 pm
I like being abnormal. 😉
Any further swing to the coalition in newspoll will see the nasty arrogant lefties come out claiming conspiracies and/or voters are stupid.
Late Riser @ #1451 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 6:28 pm
I like being relevant.
Tristo@5:58pm
True
rhwombat
Have the questions changed since the last time? You made me think I might get a different result if I took the test again. Maybe the second time round I’ll have thought more about the overall test and the individual propositions and will have modified by responses. Oh well. Fun.
Hoping for 56- 44, expecting 52-48
Morrison is a salesman and people get sucked in
When the opera house is being used to advertise gambing and those oppoosed are accused of being precious it highlights that we are now in a contradictory state……one when someone like Jones can hyperventilate but when someone disagrees they are prescious . Wow
We are better than this …….surely
Greensborough Growler @ #20698 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 5:15 pm
In America. Praise the lord that is not the case in Australia.
Bancroft 400 runs at 30 with a top score of 82 Not Out
So just over 20 for the remainder innings
Lacks the footwork for Test level hence the above figures
Is anyone else getting a silly number of comments? My browser currently reads:
@bc
This is also interesting.
One comment I would make is that I never planned to have children, but just as for most of my friends (who also were not sure they wanted children), I did have children.
I guess it makes sense – otherwise the human race would disappear. One comment I would make is that my brain changed, and so did the brains of my friends. We became very good at “gathering”. Knowing where everything in the house hold was, where you get things, stray bits of information about medical problems that may afflict babies and children. And, we shared this information. Before the internet.
It was a big surprise to me. So, I still think that nurture may have a bigger effect on gender differences than has so far been accounted for.
However, I should also say very clearly, after having three boys and a girl, there are gender differences that are obvious quite early, and so in no way am I saying that nature does not play an important part.
I thought the following article was hilarious, and and embodies a lot of the jokes my OH (male) and I share about our different approaches to shopping: https://www.nature.com/articles/477626a
However, it caused a furore among some of my colleagues, to the extent that the wives, who are also scientists, wrote to defend the article and say they did not feel at all put down by it.
poroti @ #1461 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 6:41 pm
facts are facts. But, you indulge your little fantasies. It’s all you’ve got!
Observer @ #1462 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 6:42 pm
From WA where they play on roads. Lack of footwork is because of up-bringing. Can play. But will need to get more experience on slower, turning tracks before he’ll be a regular.
“or voters are stupid.”
Coalition voters?? Well…… yes…….
The new ad is positive!
Greensborough Growler
Ah ‘fantasies’, a Vatican speciality 😀
Late Riser @ #1458 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 5:33 pm
If I recall correctly the last Compass was tweaked for the Australian election – this one is generic.
What would be interesting would be to add a z axis: apathy vs action. This might split the Spanish Civil War Anarcho-Syndicalists/Goughists from the Teal Green/Embarrassed-about-Daddy’s-Privilege Hippies, and Santamaria’s Little Helpers (like the Cycling Smeagol) from Catholic Socialist Nuns. Also Trots from Trotsky (does getting stabbed to death with an ice-pick count as action?)
I suspect I’d score -5 or so on the z scale. Too many passions, not enough action.
Does rather show what’s gone wrong with this country in terms of the prevalence of hard core rationalist economics for the last several decades, including Labor.
Douglas and Milko (AnonBlock)
Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 6:42 pm
Comment #1335
Thank you. The question of hoarding came to my mind. Who knows ❓
I intend to go knicker shopping with my daughter next Thursday, Zeus know what we will have in the trailer to take home.
Is NewsPoll due tomorrow?
rhwombat
Give yourself 2 gold koala stamps. Gold gold gold for …….
“This might split the Spanish Civil War Anarcho-Syndicalists/Goughists from the Teal Green/Embarrassed-about-Daddy’s-Privilege Hippies, and Santamaria’s Little Helpers (like the Cycling Smeagol) from Catholic Socialist Nuns. Also Trots from Trotsky (does getting stabbed to death with an ice-pick count as action?)”
rhwombat at 6:51 (still 5:51 in my world): love it.
Late Riser @ #498 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 6:57 pm
Power loves a vacuum….
Economic Left/Right: -4.45
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -2.77
poroti @ #1469 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 6:50 pm
When you’ve got no valid critique, you go for bigotry.
How very PB.
LOL, says the guy who predicted there was a secret majority of voters who’d turn out to defeat marriage equality.
I wouldn’t trust you to work out it was raining if it was pouring down on your head, let alone work out what other people might be thinking!
My Political Compass score:
Economic Left/Right: -5.38
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 0.00
Exciting waiting to see which of the Victorians added to the test team will be first to fire a shot.
JimmyD @ #1479 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:04 pm
You’re the type of guy that would piss on my leg and tell me it’s raining.
My extreme centrist views are well known and appreciated by thinking PBers.
Morrison adds another yob qualification to his resume .. now it’s Mt Panorama yob as well
”
Greensborough Growler says:
Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 6:15 pm
That test shows I’m closer to the political centre than anyone else on this blog. I should definately be the go to guy if anyone wants to know what normal voters are actually thinking.
”
What are scores?
Greensborough Growler
Say hello from me to BA Santamaria next time you have a chat with him 🙂
shellbell @ #1481 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:06 pm
There’s only Siddle who’s there to bowl line and length and back up Starc. and finch who is the field atm. The track is a road. Unless there is some reverse swing in the next 20 overs, the Aussies will be chasing big total.
Ven @ #1484 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:09 pm
Pakis are 0-89 at lunch.
poroti @ #1485 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:11 pm
The only dead people I’m talking to at the moment is you.
GG,
Putting aside that an “extreme centrist” is oxymoronic nonsense, anyone who describes abortion as murder is most decidedly not a centrist. Furthermore,
That view is well outside mainstream Australian opinion, which rather puts paid to your ridiculous claim that you somehow understand or even reflect “normal voters”.
The reality is you don’t understand this mysterious group any better than the rest of us.
If you are wondering who Turnbull blames for his demise as PM.
Well I scored the test for Bill Shorten as a more or less proxy for the centre of the ALP. he came out at -4.25 and -4.26. Pretty much as i would expect. Definitely in the lower left quadrant.
Pseudo Cud Chewer @ #22686 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 5:54 pm
Current consensus is, no. Next one expected next week.
Nevertheless I posted the PB Newspoll-Poll this morning. This was the summary.
PB Newspoll-Poll 2018-10-07
PB mean: ALP 55.2 to 44.8 LNP
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 46
What about John Holland, Mr Normal?
JimmyD @ #1489 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:16 pm
And where do you rate? Down with the extremist virtue signallers promoting policies and ideas of absolute no interest to normal voters.
The figures don’t lie, I’m the closest to the middle on this blog.
Read it and weep.
Sharma’s pals doing dirty tricks against Phelps:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/07/wentworth-byelection-liberals-attack-kerryn-phelps-with-nasty-pamphlets
rhwombat, I don’t know about your Z axis. But I should dig out some theories on human behaviour that included 16 categories based on four dimensions. I’ll have to look it up.
shellbell @ #1493 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:19 pm
I didn’t want to boast about another champion Victorian toiling away manfully for his country and NSW. 6 overs for 32. He’ll get better.
GG,
I have no idea how I rate nor do I care. I’ve made no claim to being a moderate, though my social views would be far more moderate than yours.
The only person I’ve seen virtue signalling recently is you about your extremist position on abortion, which goes to show that the only thing you’re in the middle of is your own nonsense.
GG
it is a us blog so the middle is a bit further right than in Australia
I think anyone who genuine believes the average Australian in 2018 has faintest interest in horseracing (beyond the opportunity such events provide to get pissed by noon on a weekday without looking like a degenerate alcoholic) has a pretty poor claim to being in touch with the present-day zeitgeist.
More to the point, while these sorts of tests are certainly interesting, they are ultimately limited by by biases of those who have created them and just how subjective and broad so many areas of a political belief.