Further Friday free-for-all

Amid an otherwise quiet week for polling, a privately conducted ReachTEL poll offers further evidence the Liberals are on shaky ground in Wentworth.

It’s been a quiet week on the poll front, and indeed it’s worth noting that polling generally is thinner on the ground than it used to be – the once weekly Essential Research series went fortnightly at the start of the year, neither Sky News nor Seven has been treating us to federal ReachTEL polls like they used to, and even the Fairfax-Ipsos poll has pared back its sample sizes in recent times from 1400 to 1200. I suspect we won’t be getting the normally-fortnightly Newspoll on Sunday night either, as these are usually timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament, for which we will have to wait another week. I can at least relate the following:

• The Guardian has results from a ReachTEL poll of Wentworth conducted for independent candidate Licia Heath, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 727. After exclusion of the 5.6% undecided the results are Dave Sharma (Liberal) 43.0%; Tim Murray (Labor) 20.7%; Kerryn Phelps (independent) 17.9%; Licia Heath (independent) 10.0% and Dominic Wy Kanak (Greens) 6.6%. The poll also comes with a 51-49 Liberal-versus-Labor two-party result, but this a) assumes Tim Murray would not be overtaken by Kerryn Phelps after allocation of preferences, and b) credits Labor with over three-quarters of independent and minor party preferences, which seems highly implausible. The poll also reportedly finds “as many as 52% of people said high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals made it less likely they would give her their vote”, but this would seem to be a complex issue given Phelps’s flip-flop on the subject.

• The Guardian also has results of polling by ReachTEL for the Australian Education Union on the federal goverment’s funding deal for Catholic and independent schools, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1261 respondents in Corangamite, Dunkley, Forde, Capricornia, Flynn, Gilmore, Robertson and Banks. The report dwells too much on what the small sub-sample of undecided voters thought, but it does at least relate that 38.6% of all respondents said the deal made them less likely to vote Liberal.

• Back to Wentworth, I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey, and took part in a mostly Wentworth-related podcast yesterday with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, along with Georgia Tkachuk of Collins Gartrell, which you can access below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,606 comments on “Further Friday free-for-all”

  1. Any further swing to the coalition in newspoll will see the nasty arrogant lefties come out claiming conspiracies and/or voters are stupid.

  2. rhwombat

    Oh good – I’ve become more radical with age

    Have the questions changed since the last time? You made me think I might get a different result if I took the test again. Maybe the second time round I’ll have thought more about the overall test and the individual propositions and will have modified by responses. Oh well. Fun.

  3. Hoping for 56- 44, expecting 52-48

    Morrison is a salesman and people get sucked in

    When the opera house is being used to advertise gambing and those oppoosed are accused of being precious it highlights that we are now in a contradictory state……one when someone like Jones can hyperventilate but when someone disagrees they are prescious . Wow

    We are better than this …….surely

  4. Greensborough Growler @ #20698 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 5:15 pm

    That test shows I’m closer to the political centre than anyone else on this blog.

    In America. Praise the lord that is not the case in Australia.

  5. Bancroft 400 runs at 30 with a top score of 82 Not Out

    So just over 20 for the remainder innings

    Lacks the footwork for Test level hence the above figures

  6. Is anyone else getting a silly number of comments? My browser currently reads:

    21999 comments on “Further Friday free-for-all”

  7. @bc

    It could also be evolutionary.

    In traditional hunter gatherer societies men often hunted with some form of projectile weapon (e.g. spears, bows and arrows, rocks).

    Women, tended to do the gathering, which didn’t involve much throwing, but did mean that they contributed the majority of the calories to the group.

    So perhaps those men who were better at calculating trajectories were better hunters (or fighters) and so more likely to have more surviving offspring. Given their different roles, women were not selected (in the evolutionary sense of the word) for these skills.

    I’m told that men and women tend to navigate differently. According to the story, men tend to build a mental map, whereas women tend to use landmarks. Not being both a man and women I’m unable to determine the veracity of this claim.

    This is also interesting.

    One comment I would make is that I never planned to have children, but just as for most of my friends (who also were not sure they wanted children), I did have children.

    I guess it makes sense – otherwise the human race would disappear. One comment I would make is that my brain changed, and so did the brains of my friends. We became very good at “gathering”. Knowing where everything in the house hold was, where you get things, stray bits of information about medical problems that may afflict babies and children. And, we shared this information. Before the internet.

    It was a big surprise to me. So, I still think that nurture may have a bigger effect on gender differences than has so far been accounted for.

    However, I should also say very clearly, after having three boys and a girl, there are gender differences that are obvious quite early, and so in no way am I saying that nature does not play an important part.

    I thought the following article was hilarious, and and embodies a lot of the jokes my OH (male) and I share about our different approaches to shopping: https://www.nature.com/articles/477626a

    However, it caused a furore among some of my colleagues, to the extent that the wives, who are also scientists, wrote to defend the article and say they did not feel at all put down by it.

  8. poroti @ #1461 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 6:41 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #20698 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 5:15 pm

    That test shows I’m closer to the political centre than anyone else on this blog.

    In America. Praise the lord that is not the case in Australia.

    facts are facts. But, you indulge your little fantasies. It’s all you’ve got!

  9. Observer @ #1462 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 6:42 pm

    Bancroft 400 runs at 30 with a top score of 82 Not Out

    So just over 20 for the remainder innings

    Lacks the footwork for Test level hence the above figures

    From WA where they play on roads. Lack of footwork is because of up-bringing. Can play. But will need to get more experience on slower, turning tracks before he’ll be a regular.

  10. Late Riser @ #1458 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 5:33 pm

    rhwombat

    Oh good – I’ve become more radical with age

    Have the questions changed since the last time? You made me think I might get a different result if I took the test again. Maybe the second time round I’ll have thought more about the overall test and the individual propositions and will have modified by responses. Oh well. Fun.

    If I recall correctly the last Compass was tweaked for the Australian election – this one is generic.

    What would be interesting would be to add a z axis: apathy vs action. This might split the Spanish Civil War Anarcho-Syndicalists/Goughists from the Teal Green/Embarrassed-about-Daddy’s-Privilege Hippies, and Santamaria’s Little Helpers (like the Cycling Smeagol) from Catholic Socialist Nuns. Also Trots from Trotsky (does getting stabbed to death with an ice-pick count as action?)

    I suspect I’d score -5 or so on the z scale. Too many passions, not enough action.

  11. Does rather show what’s gone wrong with this country in terms of the prevalence of hard core rationalist economics for the last several decades, including Labor.

  12. Douglas and Milko (AnonBlock)
    Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 6:42 pm
    Comment #1335

    I thought the following article was hilarious, and and embodies a lot of the jokes my OH (male) and I share about our different approaches to shopping: https://www.nature.com/articles/477626a

    Because groceries aren’t all they go looking for. It turns out the next item on the shopping list is better-looking versions of us. 😢

    Thank you. The question of hoarding came to my mind. Who knows ❓

    I intend to go knicker shopping with my daughter next Thursday, Zeus know what we will have in the trailer to take home.

  13. rhwombat

    Give yourself 2 gold koala stamps. Gold gold gold for …….

    “This might split the Spanish Civil War Anarcho-Syndicalists/Goughists from the Teal Green/Embarrassed-about-Daddy’s-Privilege Hippies, and Santamaria’s Little Helpers (like the Cycling Smeagol) from Catholic Socialist Nuns. Also Trots from Trotsky (does getting stabbed to death with an ice-pick count as action?)”

  14. GG
    That test shows I’m closer to the political centre than anyone else on this blog. I should definately be the go to guy if anyone wants to know what normal voters are actually thinking.

    LOL, says the guy who predicted there was a secret majority of voters who’d turn out to defeat marriage equality.

    I wouldn’t trust you to work out it was raining if it was pouring down on your head, let alone work out what other people might be thinking!

  15. JimmyD @ #1479 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:04 pm

    GG
    That test shows I’m closer to the political centre than anyone else on this blog. I should definately be the go to guy if anyone wants to know what normal voters are actually thinking.

    LOL, says the guy who predicted there was a secret majority of voters who’d turn out to defeat marriage equality.

    I wouldn’t trust you to work out it was raining if it was pouring down on your head, let alone work out what other people might be thinking!

    You’re the type of guy that would piss on my leg and tell me it’s raining.

    My extreme centrist views are well known and appreciated by thinking PBers.


  16. Greensborough Growler says:
    Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 6:15 pm
    That test shows I’m closer to the political centre than anyone else on this blog. I should definately be the go to guy if anyone wants to know what normal voters are actually thinking.

    What are scores?

  17. shellbell @ #1481 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:06 pm

    Exciting waiting to see which of the Victorians added to the test team will be first to fire a shot.

    There’s only Siddle who’s there to bowl line and length and back up Starc. and finch who is the field atm. The track is a road. Unless there is some reverse swing in the next 20 overs, the Aussies will be chasing big total.

  18. Ven @ #1484 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:09 pm


    Greensborough Growler says:
    Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 6:15 pm
    That test shows I’m closer to the political centre than anyone else on this blog. I should definately be the go to guy if anyone wants to know what normal voters are actually thinking.

    What are scores?

    Pakis are 0-89 at lunch.

  19. GG,

    Putting aside that an “extreme centrist” is oxymoronic nonsense, anyone who describes abortion as murder is most decidedly not a centrist. Furthermore,
    That view is well outside mainstream Australian opinion, which rather puts paid to your ridiculous claim that you somehow understand or even reflect “normal voters”.

    The reality is you don’t understand this mysterious group any better than the rest of us.

  20. Well I scored the test for Bill Shorten as a more or less proxy for the centre of the ALP. he came out at -4.25 and -4.26. Pretty much as i would expect. Definitely in the lower left quadrant.

  21. JimmyD @ #1489 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:16 pm

    GG,

    Putting aside that an “extreme centrist” is oxymoronic nonsense, anyone who describes abortion as murder is most decidedly not a centrist. Furthermore,
    That view is well outside mainstream Australian opinion, which rather puts paid to your ridiculous claim that you somehow understand “normal voters”.

    The reality is you don’t understand this mysterious group any better than the rest of us.

    And where do you rate? Down with the extremist virtue signallers promoting policies and ideas of absolute no interest to normal voters.

    The figures don’t lie, I’m the closest to the middle on this blog.

    Read it and weep.

  22. rhwombat, I don’t know about your Z axis. But I should dig out some theories on human behaviour that included 16 categories based on four dimensions. I’ll have to look it up.

  23. GG,

    I have no idea how I rate nor do I care. I’ve made no claim to being a moderate, though my social views would be far more moderate than yours.

    The only person I’ve seen virtue signalling recently is you about your extremist position on abortion, which goes to show that the only thing you’re in the middle of is your own nonsense.

  24. I think anyone who genuine believes the average Australian in 2018 has faintest interest in horseracing (beyond the opportunity such events provide to get pissed by noon on a weekday without looking like a degenerate alcoholic) has a pretty poor claim to being in touch with the present-day zeitgeist.

    More to the point, while these sorts of tests are certainly interesting, they are ultimately limited by by biases of those who have created them and just how subjective and broad so many areas of a political belief.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *