Supplementary Sunday smorgasbord

Nothing from Newspoll this week, but Ipsos breaks it down, and there’s yet another privately conducted poll from Wentworth.

No Newspoll this week, which is holding back for the resumption of parliament next week. However, we do have a new Victorian state poll out from ReachTEL, which you can read about in the post directly below this one, along with an update of my poll aggregation from the state. The Guardian should bring us results from Essential Research’s regular fortnightly federal poll overnight tomorrow. Also on the polling front:

• The Fairfax papers have reported state breakdowns aggregated from the last three monthly Ipsos polls, which mix one poll from before the leadership coup, one from the immediate lead-up to it, and one from a month after. This shows Labor leading 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 in the previous quarter), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged), 52-48 in Queensland (unchanged) and 51-49 in Western Australia (an unusual 53-47 to the Coalition last time), while the Coalition leads 51-48 in South Australia (52-48 to Labor last time).

• The Guardian reports on another poll in Wentworth, conducted for the Refugee Council of Australia, which I’m going to assume was a ReachTEL although the report doesn’t say. This one is particularly interesting in providing two-party results for Liberal-versus-Phelps as well as Liberal-versus-Labor. This suggests Phelps will win 53-47 if only she can get ahead of Labor. However, the primary votes suggest she has a hurdle to clear, with Dave Sharma (Liberal) on 38.1%, Tim Murray (Labor) on 24.5%, Kerryn Phelps (independent) on 15.9% and others in single digits (there may be an undecided component in the mix of perhaps around 5% or 6% as well). The Liberal-versus-Labor result is consistent with earlier polling in showing it to be extemely close: 50-50 in this case. However, as with the previous polls, this is based on Labor receiving around two-third of preferences from mostly conservative independent candidates, which seems a bit much. The sample for the poll was 870; no field work date is provided. UPDATE: Ben Raue has provided the full numbers. After inclusion of a forced response follow-up for the 4.8% undecided, the primary votes are Sharma 39.9%, Murray 25.0%, Phelps 17.3%, Greens 9.1%, Heath 3.6%. Respondents were also asked how they had voted in 2016, and the responses are fairly well in line with the actual result.

Also on Wentworth, my guide to the by-election has been expanded and updated. Antony Green’s guide offers a particularly useful survey of the how-to-vote card situation that makes use of the term “virtue signalling”. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph has taken aim at the Greens for putting Labor ahead of Kerryn Phelps – which, he correctly notes, reduces her chances of overtaking Labor and making the final count, at which she would receive a stronger flow of preferences than Labor and thus stand a better chance of defeating the Liberals. But as Antony Green also rightly notes, “Green voters are a tough flock to herd”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

629 comments on “Supplementary Sunday smorgasbord”

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  1. zoomster @ #548 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 5:02 pm


    No, it happens. I did some searches for flights to (a) Istanbul, because some friends have just come back from there and (b) Jakarta, because my son’s going there soon, and now my facebook page is awash with flight deals for Istanbul and Jakarta. And posts from one of the search engines I used now keep popping up – despite me not sharing any personal information with them.

    (None of this particularly worries me. I actually think it’s a poor spend on the relevant agencies’ behalf, as usually I’ve already bought whatever it is they’re trying to sell me…)

    Exactly, I only see ads after I’ve bought that thing. 🙂

  2. IMO the 4CNRs program was long on conspiracy and a bit short on the science but on the whole a good show.
    There is a good case for both some targetted research and an independent lit review of all the available science.
    IMO this could usefully be married to an epidemiological approach which focuses on non Hodgkins Lymphoma.

  3. citizen

    In my case, I didn’t purchase anything – I just visited a couple of sites on line. I didn’t even give out an email address. It must be working off my ISP.

  4. Sprocket@9:14pm
    It appears so and NSW Premier wants to revive that.
    Also, if Pakis bat for 5 days in this test 2 things will happen
    1. Australia will not loose this test match
    2. There will not be a Australian team to play 2nd test

  5. Zoom and citizen

    The e-commerce sites you visit write a cookie to your browser, which then nags you to buy the product.

    Just go into the browser and delete cookies, usually in privacy or similar under settings.

  6. Boerwar @ #562 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 6:23 pm

    Do we think that Greenpeace should stay off the sails?

    I think there should be an application process that is managed by the Opera House board. The Harbour Bridge mob could do the same to approve applications to advertise on their asset.

    Our local council allows community and iconic events, community organisations/charities, and in limited instances, commercial operators to book the street banners down the main street to promote their event/activity. They need to supply their own banners of course (which aren’t cheap to have made), but they have to apply to have them installed and the period/duration, and their proposal is assessed against criteria. If it’s a transparent process with eligibility criteria and application procedure then I can’t see why the Opera House cannot do similarly. At least it would be a start anyways.

  7. Yeah it certainly happens, particularly for web searches (when you visit a page from search engine results, the page gets told what search terms you were using). It’s frequently done based on IP address so you’ll sometimes see ads based on what someone else on your WiFi was browsing.

    But also, sometimes a banana is just a banana.

  8. I don’t mind a few ads appearing on PB as it presumably means a few dollars for William. Usually they have been related to my online searches, as for Zoomster, but one from WorldRemit keeps appearing, promising low fees for sending money to various countries in Africa. Not sure what I’ve done to make them think I’m a potential customer.

  9. The Sydney Opera House story is such a Sydney story. Everyone in other states are just shaking their heads going “what?”.

  10. citizen @ #555 Monday, October 8th, 2018 – 9:19 pm

    Confessions, caf and Zoomster

    This Choice article from 2016 explains how customers using rewards cards are inadvertently providing sellers with a variety of data, allowing the sellers to target them with advertising.

    And then you just use an Ad Blocker. But still bag the rewards. Simples!

  11. And then you just use an Ad Blocker. But still bag the rewards. Simples!


    I use an ad-blocker on the laptop.
    Lately I rarely if ever go on Facebook on the computer, I use my phone.
    I never use my phone for internet browsing.
    This would likely explain why my internet browsing isn’t translating into my Fb timeline.
    I do follow Woolworths on Facebook, so I can see how the Rewards Card translated into Fb activity.

  12. Another iconic tourist attraction in the news – must be quite a sight:

    A veteran cameleer is warning a dangerous level of congestion — and tourists copping an unwanted eyeful of naked flesh — is putting one of Australia’s most iconic tourist attractions at risk.

    The Cable Beach camel tours in Broome are used in tourism marketing material across the world, but John Geappen says the evening bottleneck of hooning cars, dogs and nudists is creating a potentially deadly scenario.

  13. I suspect that I am like many people in not being that bothered about what is shown on the opera house sails, though I do have an aversion to gambling promotion.

    What bothers me is that having followed due process the Opera House CEO finds herself being harangued and threatened on live radio by Jones.

    Then the State premier rolls over for Jones and the racing and gambling industry.

    What that says about the political process bothers me a lot, and it is not confined to NSW.

  14. I rarely go on facebook. Full stop. Too toxic. I’ve read too many stories about the many ways fb enables malicious targeting by bad actors.

  15. I reckon the opera house story is a nonsense from wowsers who have little better to do with their time than watch the block and curse at everyone else for the sake of cursing.

    That said, Alan Jones is a pox on humanity because of his self-absorbed sense of power.

    Next he’ll be thinking of running for president … oh wait, we’re not quite America yet

  16. Its a little piece of the high speed rail network I’ve been talking about, C@t.

    Yes it is indeed the Hawkesbury and Gosford area.

  17. Gosford to Sydney CBD in 28 minutes (that includes an interchange). Slightly less to Parramatta.
    5 mins less from Woy Woy.

  18. Speaking of (non) high speed rails, I had a wander along George St Sydney today. Lots of activity on the light rail, workers a hammering, concrete being prepared, pavers being stacked and unstacked…

  19. Sprocket a lot of George Street is going to be sitting there finished for quite a while whilst bits out near Randwick and Kensington get held up by Ausgrid.

  20. The Sydney Opera House Saga highlights just how toxic Alan Jones is.
    cash for comment
    inciting Cronulla race riots
    defaming Toowoomba business people
    bullying Sydney Opera House director on air

    Time to reassess whether your Fairfax subscription is supporting a vicious, corrupt and untruthful man

  21. Nite C@t. Interested in your thoughts on this since this is the bit that affects the Central Coast (in fact its been the hardest part of the whole network).

  22. my political compass
    Economic Left/Right: -8.75
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -9.44

    a bit surprised how far in the bottom LHS corner I scored. I don’t reckon they score support for regulation and taxation of business as authoritarian. I don’t consider myself to be libertarian when it comes to such issues.

  23. Re Pretend Cud Chewer @10:03.

    That map shows the Hawkesbury River and the rail crossing near Brooklyn (Hawkesbury River Station), with the built up area South of Woy Woy to the East. It shows the current rail line and, a little to the West, I suppose a proposed new line that will allow travel from Gosford and Sydney in 28 minutes, some time after humans have landed on Mars, or Pluto or one of the Trappist planets.

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