Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No change in voting intention from the latest Essential poll, which also finds respondents evenly split on the future of the Nauru detention centre.

The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47. The poll also includes the monthly leadership ratings, which show Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 42-27 as preferred prime minister, out from 39-27 a month ago. We will have to wait for the full report later today to see primary votes and approval ratings. The poll also finds 40% in favour of transferring families and children on Nauru to Australia, with 39% opposed; 37% supporting the closure of the Nauru detention centre and transferring those remaining to Australia, with 42% opposed; and 35% in support of keeping them there indefinitely, with 43% opposed. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.

UPDATE: Full report here. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens reverting to 10% after a spike to 12% a fortnight ago, and One Nation up two to 7% after dropping three in the last poll. Scott Morrison is up six on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 28%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down three to 33% and down two to 45%.

The Guardian report focused on asylum seeker questions, but the other focus for the supplementary questions this week is the media. Thirty-six per cent offered that the government had too much influence on the ABC, 16% not enough, 17% about right and 31% don’t know, with Labor and Greens voters greatly more likely to offer the first response. Forty per cent felt ABC reporting was independent and unbiased and 34% the opposite – Labor and Greens supporters weighed more heavily towards the former, with Coalition supporters evenly split.

Also featured is an occasional “trust in media” question, along with a new question identifying specific news outlets. Despite all the fuss of late, results to both follow the usual patterns: public beats commercial, broadsheet beats tabloid, news beats tabloid, and there’s nothing lower than an “internet blog”. The Australian has a slight edge over the Fairfax papers, which I would hypothesise has something to do with the latter’s move to tabloid.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,060 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. It is almost as if he has been stampeded into firing his big bullets for a snap election.

    Trumble fired his big bullets for the next three elections several budgets ago.

    The senate gave him back a couple of bullets by denying most of the Corporate Tax package, so now he’s basically painted them a slightly different shade of the same bullshit and re-fired em.

    Costello remarkably got to the truth of it. This mob are living in a parallel world of weird trying to excite an electorate they’ve spent 5 years disappointing with promises of goodies that will start rolling in some time during the third government term after the next election. No Pete, they won’t be the government in 2026. Nor 2025, 2024, 23, 22, 21, or 20. They’ll get a bit of 19, but that’s only because they’ll deny us the chance to put them out of our misery for as long as possible.

  4. Watcha is still watching

    Just home. Much better behaviour this arvo ….. no real bullying. Well done youse all.

    As for the cakes debate, it is a pretty stupid small businessperson (ie a person who runs a business to make $s) who picks and chooses whose money they will accept. And if such stupid small business persons do exist, they are even stupider if they can’t think up a non-actionable reason not to serve a particular person.

    Some fertile imaginations running here today about cakemakers….. must’ve hyped themselves up by eating too much sugary cake.

  5. What do people here think of this formulation of the obligation retailers should have towards their customers?

    “A retailer is obliged to offer for sale to every customer any product they would be willing to offer for sale to any other customer – availability permitting.”

  6. Watcha @ #1854 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 5:13 pm

    Watcha is still watching

    Just home. Much better behaviour this arvo ….. no real bullying. Well done youse all.

    As for the cakes debate, it is a pretty stupid small businessperson (ie a person who runs a business to make $s) who picks and chooses whose money they will accept. And if such stupid small business persons do exist, they are even stupider if they can’t think up a non-actionable reason not to serve a particular person.

    Some fertile imaginations running here today about cakemakers….. must’ve hyped themselves up by eating too much sugary cake.

    Watcha likes to watch!

    Can’t do, just watch.

  8. If you choose to start a business you choose to do so within the rules. You want to pour concrete there are rules. You want to deal with children there are rules.

    Cake makers should be no different.

    If you want to beeed greyhounds then you’re alliwed to. If breeding greyhounds were against the rules then you have the freedom to do something else.

  9. Craig Emerson and Gillian Triggs are destroying Dutton’s Boats Boats Boats narrative as an excuse for the indefinite detention.

    You can be for off shore and for a limited time period for offshore detention. Even the conservative being forced to agree.

  10. Tornado warning? That’s a new one. But apparently, yes:

    Weather Situation: Very dangerous thunderstorm near Mt Joseph with a reported Tornado earlier this afternoon – expected to continue its northeast track.

    The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 3:45 pm, very dangerous thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near the area north of Kilkivan and the ranges between Biggenden and Tiaro. These thunderstorms are moving towards the northeast. Other severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Lake Boondooma. They are forecast to affect the area north of Lake Boondooma and the area northeast of Lake Boondooma by 4:15 pm and the ranges south of Gayndah by 4:45 pm.

    Destructive winds and very large hailstones likely with the potential of a tornado.

    – TORNADO reported at Tansey (northwest of Murgon) around 3:12pm

    – Tennis ball size hail (up to 7cm) was reported at Kumbia around midday.

    – 4 to 5cm hail reported between Proston and Murgon

    – 3 to 5cm hail reported at and near Gympie

    – Vast property and vegetation damage across all affected towns

    Looks like Maryborough is next in the firing line. The motorway immediately south of there will flood, like it always does.

    I had a van that went through 7cm hail once. It looked like a golf-ball afterwards. So did every other car in town. Still have the pictures from when I sold it (years later).

  12. Apologies if posted previously – today’s DT dead tree front page:

    “GUN NATION
    Hanson and Shooters’ Alliance to Rock NSW Election”

    (edit: try this image)

  14. In fairness to Langer if:

    (a) he has convinced Khawaja to get fit and focussed; and
    (b) tightened up Head’s offside play and defence;

    Well done.

    Everything else is fucked though.

  17. Been reading the IPCC SR1.5 report. Very depressing. Here is a tiny, tiny extract …

    SSP(shared socio-economic pathways)-based modelling studies of mitigation pathways have identified high challenges to mitigation for worlds with a focus on domestic issues and regional security combined with high population growth (SSP3).
    …
    No model could identify a 2°C-consistent pathway for SSP3.
    …
    These results show that 1.5°C-consistent pathways can be identified under a broad range of assumptions, but that lack of global cooperation (SSP3), high inequality (SSP4) and/or high population growth (SSP3) that limit the ability to control land use emissions, and rapidly growing resource-intensive consumption (SSP5) are key impediments.
    …
    None of the IAMs (Integrated Assessment Models) contained in the SR1.5 database could produce a 1.5°C pathway under SSP3-SPA3 assumptions. Preventing elements include, for instance, climate policy fragmentation, limited control of land-use emissions, heavy reliance on fossil fuels, unsustainable consumption and marked inequalities. Dietary aspects of the SSPs are also critical: climate-friendly diets were contained in ‘sustainability’ (SSP1) and meat-intensive diets in SSP3 and SSP5

    Does this description of SSP3 remind anyone of any specific country? One perhaps not a million miles from the one in which we are currently standing? 🙁

  20. shellbell @ #1863 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 5:29 pm

    In fairness to Langer if:

    (a) he has convinced Khawaja to get fit and focussed; and
    (b) tightened up Head’s offside play and defence;

    Well done.

    Everything else is fucked though.

    This test, K and Finch did well against the new ball because it had reasonable bounce but there was no swing or cut. Once reverse swing came in to play in the first innings the Aussies played procession cricket, including Finch.

  23. Nothing will change for the kids on Nauru until we have a Labor Government.
    Nothing.
    No amount of Greens handwringing and fingerpointing will change a thing.
    Not a thing.
    So, what do the Greens do?
    All the things that help ensure that the kids will stay where they are until they die.

  25. a r @ #1860 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 5:24 pm

    Tornado warning? That’s a new one. But apparently, yes:

    Weather Situation: Very dangerous thunderstorm near Mt Joseph with a reported Tornado earlier this afternoon – expected to continue its northeast track.

    The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 3:45 pm, very dangerous thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near the area north of Kilkivan and the ranges between Biggenden and Tiaro. These thunderstorms are moving towards the northeast. Other severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Lake Boondooma. They are forecast to affect the area north of Lake Boondooma and the area northeast of Lake Boondooma by 4:15 pm and the ranges south of Gayndah by 4:45 pm.

    Destructive winds and very large hailstones likely with the potential of a tornado.

    – TORNADO reported at Tansey (northwest of Murgon) around 3:12pm

    – Tennis ball size hail (up to 7cm) was reported at Kumbia around midday.

    – 4 to 5cm hail reported between Proston and Murgon

    – 3 to 5cm hail reported at and near Gympie

    – Vast property and vegetation damage across all affected towns

    Looks like Maryborough is next in the firing line. The motorway immediately south of there will flood, like it always does.

    I had a van that went through 7cm hail once. It looked like a golf-ball afterwards. So did every other car in town. Still have the pictures from when I sold it (years later).

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Before you came to Australia obviously. 🙂

  30. heresa May cannot say she has not been warned. Brexit poses a mounting threat to the unity of the UK. Nor can she dispute the eminence of those who have been doing the warning. During the referendum campaign in 2016, John Major counselled that a British exit could “tear apart” the UK. This past summer, Gordon Brown argued Britain was at serious risk of “being permanently paralysed by seemingly irreparable divisions”. These are serious voices.

    To the unwary, their warnings might seem to have been directed at receptive ears. Few serving prime ministers express their commitment to the union more often or more clearly than May. She calls it her “beloved union”. Last week, at her party conference, she called it her “precious union”. It would be wrong to doubt the sincerity of such words. But the impact of Brexit on the union is now more threatening than ever, and May seems to possess a wholly inadequate armoury of words, ideas and actions to mitigate or prevent it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/10/brexit-threat-theresa-may-uk-scotland-northern-ireland-union?CMP=twt_gu

  31. I reckon the top order of the batting line up for the next test will look a lot like this:

    Finch
    Renshaw
    Uzi
    S Marsh
    Head
    M Marsh

  34. The nub of the matter I think:
    That stuff really matters. Without public spaces – without public forums – eventually there can be no public.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-the-opera-house-backlash-was-so-fierce-we-ve-just-had-enough-20181011-p508ze.html

    I couldn’y agree with Waleed more. What was once public has been captured by commercial interests – just look at the new Apple store planned to be ‘adjacent’ to Federation Square in Melbourne and which will ‘spill over into the public space from time to time’. They do not say how often that will happen and I bet it is not legislated by the Vic Govt. So, 6 out of 7 days per week meets that criteria.

  37. ‘a r says:
    Thursday, October 11, 2018 at 5:34 pm

    Boerwar @ #1866 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 4:29 pm

    Triggs demonstrating on Drum precisely why she failed as President of the Human Rights Commission.

    Because Tony Abbott and the rest of the Liberal party were all openly hostile to her and everything that came out of the UNHRC?’

    You make relevant observations but her behaviour on the Drum was another facet: dogmatic, didactic and seeking to dominate by occupying the space. Compare and contrast the amount of time Triggs was talking as opposed to the person sitting to her left.

  39. ‘guytaur says:
    Thursday, October 11, 2018 at 5:36 pm

    BW

    Last I looked Dr Craig Emerson was not a Green politician. He was agreeing with every word of Professor Triggs.’

    Why lie?

  41. briefly

    ‘…Nevertheless, Sturgeon made a telling point on Tuesday when she compared the receptivity of the EU to Ireland’s special concerns in the Brexit negotiations with the hostility of the UK government to the special concerns of Scotland.
    …’
    That is because no EU Brexit deal will go ahead without the support of the Irish Republic. Any single member state can scupper a deal.

    That said, May does have a tin ear when it comes to Scottish sensibilities.

  42. “A retailer is obliged to offer for sale to every customer any product they would be willing to offer for sale to any other customer – availability permitting.”

    How about:

    “A retailer is not obliged to offer anything for sale to anyone. Retailers are not the public service. ”

  44. booleanbach
    “Without public spaces – without public forums – eventually there can be no public. ”
    This happened in London. The list of privately-owned public spaces there is so long there is an acronym for it; “Pops”.

  45. ‘guytaur says:
    Thursday, October 11, 2018 at 6:02 pm

    BW

    Good question. So why are you?’
    It was quite clear that Emerson and Triggs disagreed at times. So I am not lying.
    You stated that Emerson agreed with every word that Triggs said. That IS lying.

  46. a r says:
    Thursday, October 11, 2018 at 5:54 pm

    Yes. It’s now years later, yet again. I am getting old.

    ________________________

    Better than the alternative!

  49. “A retailer is obliged to offer for sale to every customer any product they would be willing to offer for sale to any other customer – availability permitting.”
    That wouldn’t help as the baker wasn’t willing to sell the cake to any other customer either.

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