Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No change in voting intention from the latest Essential poll, which also finds respondents evenly split on the future of the Nauru detention centre.

The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47. The poll also includes the monthly leadership ratings, which show Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 42-27 as preferred prime minister, out from 39-27 a month ago. We will have to wait for the full report later today to see primary votes and approval ratings. The poll also finds 40% in favour of transferring families and children on Nauru to Australia, with 39% opposed; 37% supporting the closure of the Nauru detention centre and transferring those remaining to Australia, with 42% opposed; and 35% in support of keeping them there indefinitely, with 43% opposed. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.

UPDATE: Full report here. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens reverting to 10% after a spike to 12% a fortnight ago, and One Nation up two to 7% after dropping three in the last poll. Scott Morrison is up six on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 28%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down three to 33% and down two to 45%.

The Guardian report focused on asylum seeker questions, but the other focus for the supplementary questions this week is the media. Thirty-six per cent offered that the government had too much influence on the ABC, 16% not enough, 17% about right and 31% don’t know, with Labor and Greens voters greatly more likely to offer the first response. Forty per cent felt ABC reporting was independent and unbiased and 34% the opposite – Labor and Greens supporters weighed more heavily towards the former, with Coalition supporters evenly split.

Also featured is an occasional “trust in media” question, along with a new question identifying specific news outlets. Despite all the fuss of late, results to both follow the usual patterns: public beats commercial, broadsheet beats tabloid, news beats tabloid, and there’s nothing lower than an “internet blog”. The Australian has a slight edge over the Fairfax papers, which I would hypothesise has something to do with the latter’s move to tabloid.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,060 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 39 of 42
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  1. ‘guytaur says:
    Thursday, October 11, 2018 at 6:11 pm

    BW

    People can watch and make up their own minds’
    Of course they can. And what they will conclude is that you lied when you stated that Emerson agreed with every word that Triggs said.

  3. What is done to the Opera House is small fry to what they are doing to the Domain which is real public face.

    Fenced off (including the pathways so my news got muddy) all the time.

  4. What a great idea for our next GG????

    ‘Leave the possibility open’ of Prince Harry or William for governor general, says Liberal MP

    Liberal MP Julian Leeser said the idea of having a non-Australian citizen for governor general is unlikely but the idea should remain on the table. ‘You would have to gauge public sentiment’, he said while speaking at the Lowy Institure with national director of the Australian Republic Movement, Michael Cooney

    https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/2018/oct/11/leave-the-possibility-open-of-prince-harry-or-william-for-governor-general-says-liberal-mp

  6. Bushfire Bill @ #1892 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 6:07 pm

    “A retailer is obliged to offer for sale to every customer any product they would be willing to offer for sale to any other customer – availability permitting.”

    How about:

    “A retailer is not obliged to offer anything for sale to anyone. Retailers are not the public service. ”

    Try getting a plumber on a Sunday!

  9. Diogenes

    I had not heard of them before..
    .
    .
    Privately owned public space (Pops)
    Revealed: the insidious creep of pseudo-public space in London

    Pseudo-public space – squares and parks that seem public but are actually owned by corporations

    As the Guardian maps its full extent in London for the first time, Jack Shenker reports on a new culture of secrecy and control, where private security guards can remove you for protesting, taking photos … or just looking scruffy
    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/jul/24/revealed-pseudo-public-space-pops-london-investigation-map

  11. Bushfire Bill says:
    Thursday, October 11, 2018 at 6:07 pm
    “A retailer is obliged to offer for sale to every customer any product they would be willing to offer for sale to any other customer – availability permitting.”
    How about:

    “A retailer is not obliged to offer anything for sale to anyone. Retailers are not the public service. ”
    —————————————

    Your suggestions is right. Advocating otherwise amounts to advocating entrepreneurial conscription, IMO.

    However, my formulation includes yours. The obligation it creates is premised upon a retailer already agreeing to supply a given product to market. That is, it imposes no obligation upon a retailer, except to the extent that the retailer is voluntarily engaged in providing to the market.

    So, my formulation satisfies the interest of the retailer which is expressed in your suggestion.

  12. poroti
    The map at the bottom of that article shows just how extensive POPS are in inner city London.

    In other news, Bolt says religious schools should be allowed to exclude gay kids but would have to give up their government funding if they did.

  13. The Cathy Wilcox
    ‏@cathywilcox1
    41m

    It’s certainly the first question I asked when meeting my children’s teachers over the years: “never mind the kid’s arithmetic, who are YOU having sex with?”

  15. booleanbach @ #1884 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 5:53 pm

    The nub of the matter I think:
    That stuff really matters. Without public spaces – without public forums – eventually there can be no public.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-the-opera-house-backlash-was-so-fierce-we-ve-just-had-enough-20181011-p508ze.html

    I couldn’y agree with Waleed more. What was once public has been captured by commercial interests – just look at the new Apple store planned to be ‘adjacent’ to Federation Square in Melbourne and which will ‘spill over into the public space from time to time’. They do not say how often that will happen and I bet it is not legislated by the Vic Govt. So, 6 out of 7 days per week meets that criteria.

    Christ, Sydney wrote the book on this, and why Sydneysiders are quick(er) on the uptake; the index of suspicion is high.

    Another egregious example is the leasing of sections of Centennial Park to various corporates.

    If you wondered where parts of the Great Gatsby, and then the Peter Rabbit film were shot, wonder no more. Rabbit Mk 2 is about to again wall off the main dog recreation area for several months, with 24 hr security in place. This section really is the only large flat area of the park, with good range and good visibility and moreover reasonably safely quarantined from cars and cyclists where hundreds of owners and dogs congregate from sunrise to sunset to chat, meet, and enjoy each other as do their dogs, most importantly.

    Higher up the hill near the Woollahra Gates, the belvedere is closed from 6pm nightly for three months in summer for Moonlight Cinema. At least there is some immediate public benefit, for the price of a ticket, should you want to watch a movie, instead of the gently setting sun, the darkening skies, the planes ever sinking into Mascot or climbing at impossibly steep angles before winging themselves away, or the thousands of bats that fly every dusk across the valley heading north to the Botanical Gardens, or simply the stars, and the stillness of the night.

    Then there’s the abomination of the continuating loss of public space in and around the old Showground. There’s a RC here to be had.

    And the proposed leasing of old military buildings on South Head to some wedding venues rip off merchants, another burning issue in Wentworth.

    And Gormless Gladys unable and or unwilling.

  17. Diogenes

    I looked at a Guardian article listing them all in London and the first four POPs were owned by….
    .
    King’s Cross Central: a partnership between Argent Kings Cross and Australian Super

  18. If you want to be really depressed about where a controlling Coalition government might like to take the internet in the future, read this:

    It was just before 6 a.m. when police officers raided Daniil Markin’s apartment in Barnaul, a small Russian city some 2,000 miles from Moscow. Markin, a film student who was 18 at the time of the July 2017 raid, had no idea why police had burst into his home. The officers, he says, were in no hurry to explain. Instead, they removed his computers, smartphone and other electronic devices, then drove him to the local branch of the Center for Combating Extremism, a police department within Russia’s powerful Interior Ministry.Officers from the so-called Center E then informed Markin that he was being charged with hate speech against Christians over a handful of images that he had either reposted or saved to his account on VKontakte, Russia’s version of Facebook, which is also known as VK. The earliest dated from 2013, when he was just 13. Markin did not create any of the images, most of which had already been widely circulated online, but he now faces up to five years in prison over the charges, if found guilty.

    https://www.newsweek.com/2018/10/19/how-social-media-post-russia-can-land-you-jail-1157822.html?spJobID=1130613041&spMailingID=4265457&spReportId=MTEzMDYxMzA0MQS2&spUserID=Mjk5OTM1Mzg4NzES1

  19. Michael @ #1911 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 6:34 pm

    So, my formulation satisfies the interest of the retailer which is expressed in your suggestion.

    No it doesn’t. Try this one: “A retailer has no obligation to offer the same products or service to all customers.”

    Nothing else actually make sense, or matches what retailers actually do.

    Of course, this does not preclude retailers from having to comply with all applicable legislation, including anti-discrimination legislation. As is often pointed out by consumer watchdogs, no retailer can determine which legislation they will comply with, no matter what they may say.

  20. This is the first I have heard of the acronym POPS – fits really well what is happening.
    So in the great tradition of Tony Abbott – we need to ‘Stop the Pops!’

  22. Player One:
    Thursday, October 11, 2018 at 6:51 pm
    ————————————-

    I think you’re referring to products it would only be economical / responsible to supply to some customers and not others. That is a very good point. Back to my drawing board for a tinker!

  23. Just getting polled by GetUp.

    What we felt about Turnbull’s sacking
    Voting intentions

    Now segueing into a general chatty chat/

    The guy is well informed, really nice to talk to, and on our asking him what they are trying to achieve, it is to tell their callers that this is one chance to send a message to the Libs that Climate action is an urgent reality, and they can vote Lib next year if they really must, but this is one precious chance to send a message.

  27. “‘Leave the possibility open’ of Prince Harry or William for governor general, says Liberal MP”

    No! This is a huge opportunity for the modern Liberal party to show its inclusiveness and non-sexist nature. They should recommend Fergie for GG! She has it all – a royal title, fashion sense, female and red hair (meets all those representation metrics) plus she could really use the income. She won’t knock the job back.

    Do it ScumMo. It will be a captains call befitting of your reign.

  31. Meanwhile the relentless cruelty, bordering on torture, of young children in our name, continues.
    Now MSF is being refused access to Nauru.

  34. “Uzi averages over 100 as an opener. Why would you change.”

    Because Renshaw – who has to be a better bet than either Marsh brother of getting runs this series – is a specialist opener and Uzi is our long term No.3.

    Playing folk in position is a pretty good ingredient for getting the best out of them in the long run. Slugger Finch’s best chance of getting runs over thee is in the first 20 overs of the innings – when the ball isn’t taking as much spin or swinging or deviating off the seam as much. So he stays as opener for now.

  35. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1934 Thursday, October 11th, 2018 – 7:24 pm

    “Uzi averages over 100 as an opener. Why would you change.”

    Because Renshaw – who has to be a better bet than either Marsh brother of getting runs this series – is a specialist opener and Uzi is our long term No.3.

    Playing folk in position is a pretty good ingredient for getting the best out of them in the long run. Slugger Finch’s best chance of getting runs over thee is in the first 20 overs of the innings – when the ball isn’t taking as much spin or swinging or deviating off the seam as much. So he stays as opener for now.</blockquote

    Renshaw should get there under his own steam. Not by weakening a strength.

  37. “Slugger Finch’s best chance of getting runs over thee is in the first 20 overs of the innings – when the ball isn’t taking as much spin or swinging or deviating off the seam as much. So he stays as opener for now.”

    In fairness to Finch, none of the other batsmen are lasting 20 overs. I understand he may not be the most technically correct, but at least he is trying.

  38. This guy wanted to detonate a 90kg homemade bomb* during the midterm elections (article):

    Wonder why the media is not instantly branding him a terrorist. It’s a mystery!

    * Actually, if you read the details it appears about 86kg of the weight attributed to the bomb is inert components. But “90kg bomb” sounds so much more impressive.

  43. ScoMoNoHomo is on Bolt’s SkyAfterDark show- and what does the Dutchman say?

    BOLT: In the three years Malcolm Turnbull was prime minister, not once did he come on my show. This, to me, pointed to the weakness that finally brought him down.

  45. ar
    I’m a bit of a fan of sortition. It worked very well in Renaissance Florence which was probably the greatest civilisation ever.

  46. I was always of the opinion that the ultimate driver of business was the cash to cash cycle – with some sticking in your pocket being the profit

    So you needed to collect revenue to conclude the cycle

    If a client was tardy including part payments be wary because they were the indicators of potential bad debt – including having to disgorge under Romalpa

    But if they were promt payers that was to the benefit of the cash to cash cycle, the business and profit (which is the purpose of business – to make a profit)

    So, if you are turning away a cash payer fool you – including because everyone knows someone so you never know the fuller impact on your client base or your potential client base (and especially given publicity)

    In banking there were those I generally had no regard for – but that counted for zilch because professionalism was the requirement as an employee of a bank

    In retirement those I had low regard for are not my social circle – because who I associate with is now my decision

    On another matter recall Howard’s tax cuts in the lead up to the 2007 election, his last card in the pack

    To deny Howard an advantage, Rudd tweaked and matched – and won the election

    In actual fact the tax cuts of Howard during his term plus the matching by Rudd were imprudent – as the history of the Budget has shown since (exacerbated by Rudd doing what governments are charged to do post the GFC and the continuing impact of the GFC because the impact remains today)

    But there was an election to be won

    So history repeating?

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