BludgerTrack has been updated this week with new results from Newspoll and Essential Research, both of which provided leadership ratings as well as voting intention, and a Queensland-only federal poll result from YouGov Galaxy. None of this has made any difference to the two-party preferred reading, although both parties are down on the primary vote and One Nation is up. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains a seat in Victoria and loses one in New South Wales, with no change anywhere else. However, conspicuously poor personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll have knocked the edge off his surge in the BludgerTrack trend. Full results from the link below.
Now on to two areas of intense preselection activity this week, involving Labor in the Australian Capital Territory and Liberal in Tasmania.
The former produced an unexpected turn this week when Gai Brodtmann, who has held the seat of Canberra for Labor since 2010, announced she would not seek another term. This leaves the Territory’s vigorous Labor branch with three situations vacant: the lower house seats of Canberra and Bean, and the Senate seat that was vacated by Section 44 casualty Katy Gallagher in May and filled by David Smith.
Smith is now seeking preselection in Bean, which early appeared to be lined up for Brodtmann. Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports Smith has been formally endorsed by the Right, which appears to consider that the Right-aligned Brodtmann should be replaced with one of their own. However, the Left is throwing its weight behind Louise Crossman, manager at the Justice and Community Safety Directorate and former federal staffer and CFMEU industrial officer. Also in the field are Taimus Werner-Gibbings, factionally unaligned staffer to Lisa Singh (and formerly Andrew Leigh), and Gail Morgan, business management consultant and former campaign manager to Brodtmann.
Apparently in retaliation to the Left’s intrusion in Bean, the Right is sponsoring a challenge to Left-aligned Katy Gallagher for the Senate seat, in the person of Victoria Robertson, chief-of-staff to Gai Brodtmann. The race for the Canberra preselection was covered here last week; only the lower house seat of Fenner will be defended by a sitting member, in this case Andrew Leigh.
The news from Tasmania relates to Senate preselection for the Liberals, who are in the happy seat of having a likely Senate seat to spare thanks to the vagaries of the Section 44 affair. When the Senate was carved into short-term and long-term seats after the 2016 double dissolution, the Liberals originally got two seats with six-year terms and two with three-year terms, based on the order of election in which the twelve Senators were elected. However, in the recount after Jacqui Lambie’s disqualification, her party won its seat at a later point in the count, and the Liberals gained a third six-year term at their expense. Given the likelihood of their winning two seats, this means their four seats will likely become five after the election.
Eight candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection, with top position reportedly likely to go to Richard Colbeck, the only one out of the party’s four incumbents required to face the voters. Colbeck initially failed to win in 2016 from his fifth place on the Liberal ticket, to which he was demoted after heading the ticket in 2013. This resulted from a purge of Malcolm Turnbull loyalists led by conservative powerbroker Senator Eric Abetz, and inspired a surge of below-the-line votes for Colbeck, though not enough for him to overhaul the top four candidates. As fate would have it though, number five effectively became number four in the recount held after Section 44 prompted the resignation of Stephen Parry in November last year.
Assuming Colbeck takes top place, that will leave a further seven candidates chasing number two, plus the outside chance offered by number three. A newly confirmed starter is Brett Whiteley, who held a state seat for Braddon from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, gained the federal seat for the Liberals at the 2013 election, lost it at the 2016 election, and failed to win it back at last month’s by-election. But with the party under pressure to balance its all-male parliamentary contingent, he seems likely to struggle against Claire Chandler, risk advisory manager at Deloitte Australia and former electorate officer to David Bushby, who reportedly has the backing of Eric Abetz. Also in the field are Tanya Denison, a Hobart alderman; Wendy Summers, political staffer and the sister of David Bushby; Stacey Sheehan, Davenport Chamber of Commerce and Industry president; Kent Townsend, whom I take to be a developer from Launceston; and Craig Brakey, an Ulverstone businessman.
Finally, two other bits of polling I missed:
• Last week I noted Greenpeace had published a ReachTEL poll that included Victorian state voting intention numbers. I missed the more interesting fact that they also had one on federal voting intention from a sample of 3999. It’s getting on a bit now, having been conducted on July 30, but let it be noted that Labor led 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 36.9%, Labor 35.0%, Greens 12.0% and One Nation 8.1% (after exclusion of 5.2% undecided.
• The Courier-Mail had further results from last week’s YouGov Galaxy poll which, despite the newspaper’s best efforts to give an impression to the contrary, found respondents strongly opposed to the company tax cuts. Only 16% registered support for tax cuts for businesses with more than $50 million turnover, which the government has tried and failed to pass through the Senate. Twelve per cent favoured a response that excluded banks from the cuts, and 56% were opposed altogether.
Gee Nicholas. We were all waiting for that. Thanks mate.
We are living in good times.
Malcolm is in deep doo-d00.
Scomo, J. Bishop, and Peter Dutton are treated with derision.
Tony Abbott is a laughing stock, looked on by all with general mockery and ridicule.
There is no one waiting in the wings for the LNP.
The Labor Party will win the next Federal Election in a landslide.
Life is good.
boomy1 @ #1171 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 6:23 pm
But do you dislike it more than Lucien? Would you rather eat a bucket of popcorn, or listen to Lucien for ten minutes?
ABC News 24 now running a story connecting fires in Northern Summer with Climate Change
guytaur @ #1203 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 7:38 pm
So, they’ve smelt the wind change?
There was a lot of recent doubts expressed on PB about Commonwealth powers to control the default power price set by power companies. I would think the corporations power and/or powers related to interstate trade would be more than adequate. No significant issues about acquisition of property seem to arise.
It sounds just a mechanism to stop gouging of poorly informed customers. I thought I heard earlier today that Labor would back the proposal from the ACCC.
Seems pretty simple to say that a customer going off contract cannot have their price raised unless the various offers available from the company are put before the customer with 7 days to choose or some similar scheme. Or that the default price cannot exceed x if that is the intention. The current arrangements are very poor for customers.
@lynlinking tweets
Prime Minister could face leadership challenge before end of year
By Chris Uhlmann Asked why the party would contemplate another damaging leadership battle he replied, “We are going off a cliff under Turnbull https://www.9news.com.au/2018/08/19/18/58/malcolm-turnbull-leadership-challenge-peter-dutton
Cat
Maybe Murdoch has decided that like the UK the conservatives would be better off accepting Climate Change. This could explain a lot. Including letting the LNP self destruct so purging of the extremists can happen.
From Nicholas @ 1197
The whole current economic cesspit in three words: extraction not creation.
I’ve said from the beginning of Trumble’s time that the hard right of the party room would rather a Labor Government over a popular moderate(-ish) Turnbull Government.
Wayne is unable to post tonight and begs indulgence.
Looks to me that the ALP is offering “support” on various aspects of the NEG simply to stoke Liberal division. Good on them.
On regulation vs legislation for an emissions target who the hell now knows whats going to be on the table if the NEG ever gets written up as a bill? Seems to me that the States and ALP pretty much demanding that, the RWNutjobbies are firmly opposed, and Turnbull is doing gymnastics around it.
On a price guarantee ALP is appearing to line up for something similar. But Turnbull doesn’t seem to have any real idea of what its going to be and may well do some gymnastics on that as well. 🙂
Looks to me like we are, policy wise back to where we were a few weeks ago. Nothing actually properly on the table, “policy” in flux, nothing to actually agree too and all about “principles”. Turnbulll needs it nailed down soonest, and the RWNJobbies just want funding for coal fired power stations and an implied denial of AGW. Kaos and Confusion reign.
Dashers pilot tonight Disgrace! should be hilarious. Can’t see it lasting but he is a one man highlight reel.
BTW says Turnbull is forked.
guytaur @ #1208
Rupert’s main working plan is to be in favour with the winning side, or at least not out of favour.
Sure, like all megalomaniacs he would like to determine the winner and have them jump to his every command. But he knows he can’t do that every time, so merely not being person non grata is a workable enough second prize.
Wayne is unable to post tonight and begs indulgence.
Yes, he is feeling rather deflated:
JM
Yes. Labor owes Murdoch nothing.
So I truly hope Labor brings in Canada style truth in media laws. No more of the crap we have had to put up with for years.
Interesting stuff about the share buybacks. I suppose they’re a bit like the ‘hollow logs’ policy that State Governments sometimes adopted when they still owned profitable assets. Extraction rather than building. I agree, they should be banned, even though I’ve been a beneficiary.
It will be very nteresting to see if a power can be found that would permit the Commonwealth to regulate prices. Back in the day, Bob Hawke was unable to do so within the misnamed Prices and Incomes Accord.
guytaur @ #1207 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 7:42 pm
There has to come a time of reckoning in every powerful old man’s life when he looks at his children and his grandchildren and the world that they will have to keep living in long after he passes on from this world to the next and he says to himself that it’s time for him to do something about it because he can. Maybe that time has arrived for Rupert Murdoch?
C@t:
Wayne’s sock time indulgence is akin to guytaur’s and boomy’s ridiculous carry on earlier: TMI.
“Wayne is unable to post tonight and begs indulgence.
Yes, he is feeling rather deflated”
Like the balloon that stuffed up Sydney’s trains yesterday?
Confessions @ #1219 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 8:03 pm
It passed the time for them, I guess. 🙂
It appears the loons with Abbott and his running dogs as their spearhead, have upped the ante.
Formally having Australia withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement, like Dotard did, is what is now being demanded. None of this 26-28% in Legislation or Regulation bullshit, they are demanding withdrawal from Paris.
Over to you, Lucien Aye.
Cat
Oh I truly hope this is what we are seeing. I have my doubts but crossing my fingers. 🙂
ratsak @ #25060 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 4:56 pm
Hawk
inge radiation?Steve777 @ #1220 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 8:03 pm
Wayne would love to think he had had that much effect on PB. I doubt it. 🙂
But, yeah, a metallic balloon caused all that chaos!?!
yeah, it did. Don’t mind me.
Withdrawal from Paris??
The LNP are choosing public self-immolation.
God, could you imagine a nice newspoll tonight. I know it’s early but If I were the decider Rupert I would have had one in the field this weekend for Monday morning consumption.
Key Loon now on SkyFoxNews..
.@SenatorAbetz on the National Energy Guarantee: There is a lot of concern amongst colleagues about legislating the Paris target, and suggesting it be put into regulation is potentially a worse scenario.
MORE: bit.ly/2Pm1OlN #kennyonsunday
Labor will never agree to supporting an Australian government pull-out from the Paris Climate Accord. Neither will the majority of the Senate.
So where will that leave Turnbull?
boomy1 @ #1226 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 8:06 pm
No, I don’t. 🙂
The dinner for the motley crew should be moved from PH downhill to Lake Burley Griffin. Currently 1 degree headed for -3 overnight with Souwest winds this evening. To further test their stamina take a long dip in the lake. Any that survive can vie for the PMship.
When is the next Newspoll?
Briefly – the power to control prices is easy to find. It is called the Communist Manifesto. The Liberal Party has ordered a whole box of copies for distribution at the party room. The nutjobs WILL NOT tolerate this. Who the f… does Malcolm talk to?
C@tmomma “Maybe that time has arrived for Rupert Murdoch?”
You are too generous. I wouldn’t waste it on that man.
C@tmomma,
Not a chance. People like Rupert go to their graves believing they are right. And they expect their progeny to deal with any crap that comes their way just like old Grumps did in his Good Old Days.
Boerwar,
shouldn’t be for a week yet i would expect.
So where will that leave Turnbull?
____
Precisely where he is now. Up shit creek.
The Pink Palace is going to seem like a lonely outsize prison for Citizen Turnbull.
guytaur, I admire your resilience as regards earlier posts today. Homophobia, just like racism, must be addressed, albeit I don’t share your politics – well, slightly so.
“Withdrawal from Paris??
The LNP are choosing public self-immolation.”
The more Turnbull moves to a stance that will get enough support in the HoR to pass and be agreed to by the states, the more the RWNutjobbies will dig in and oppose him.
He cant win this one, but i cant see how he can disengage and move onto something else. And if he did there is #reefgate, big business tax cuts, and drought/water/AGW waiting in the wings.
For his own health he should just resign and walk out.
citizen @ #1232 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 8:09 pm
No. Only the Mad Monk would survive that!
As the first episode of the next (and last?) series of Rake is about to begin (yay) I am reminded of CTar1 who definitely was not a fan.
And as for TISM….. Morrison Hostel makes even better listening if you substitute the name Jimbo for Malcolm.
‘Tis true. I have been accused of being generous to a fault. 🙂
OM
Thanks 🙂
That’s why I suggested it to him!!!
Jack Aranda @ #1123 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 6:04 pm
Leaned recently that Rake is based on a real current barrister – Qld of course!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
I would give a name but William may not like the legal case
briefly @ #1228 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 6:06 pm
They probably think Trump did it and didn’t suffer (much), therefore….
Problem is they are facing an election sooner than Orange Felicia, and we have compulsory voting here. 🙂
The Project tweets
“I don’t think he’d have the numbers” @barriecassidy when asked how electable Peter Dutton would be as PM #TheProjectTV https://twitter.com/theprojecttv/status/1031106567590965248/video/1