BludgerTrack has been updated this week with new results from Newspoll and Essential Research, both of which provided leadership ratings as well as voting intention, and a Queensland-only federal poll result from YouGov Galaxy. None of this has made any difference to the two-party preferred reading, although both parties are down on the primary vote and One Nation is up. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains a seat in Victoria and loses one in New South Wales, with no change anywhere else. However, conspicuously poor personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll have knocked the edge off his surge in the BludgerTrack trend. Full results from the link below.
Now on to two areas of intense preselection activity this week, involving Labor in the Australian Capital Territory and Liberal in Tasmania.
The former produced an unexpected turn this week when Gai Brodtmann, who has held the seat of Canberra for Labor since 2010, announced she would not seek another term. This leaves the Territory’s vigorous Labor branch with three situations vacant: the lower house seats of Canberra and Bean, and the Senate seat that was vacated by Section 44 casualty Katy Gallagher in May and filled by David Smith.
Smith is now seeking preselection in Bean, which early appeared to be lined up for Brodtmann. Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports Smith has been formally endorsed by the Right, which appears to consider that the Right-aligned Brodtmann should be replaced with one of their own. However, the Left is throwing its weight behind Louise Crossman, manager at the Justice and Community Safety Directorate and former federal staffer and CFMEU industrial officer. Also in the field are Taimus Werner-Gibbings, factionally unaligned staffer to Lisa Singh (and formerly Andrew Leigh), and Gail Morgan, business management consultant and former campaign manager to Brodtmann.
Apparently in retaliation to the Left’s intrusion in Bean, the Right is sponsoring a challenge to Left-aligned Katy Gallagher for the Senate seat, in the person of Victoria Robertson, chief-of-staff to Gai Brodtmann. The race for the Canberra preselection was covered here last week; only the lower house seat of Fenner will be defended by a sitting member, in this case Andrew Leigh.
The news from Tasmania relates to Senate preselection for the Liberals, who are in the happy seat of having a likely Senate seat to spare thanks to the vagaries of the Section 44 affair. When the Senate was carved into short-term and long-term seats after the 2016 double dissolution, the Liberals originally got two seats with six-year terms and two with three-year terms, based on the order of election in which the twelve Senators were elected. However, in the recount after Jacqui Lambie’s disqualification, her party won its seat at a later point in the count, and the Liberals gained a third six-year term at their expense. Given the likelihood of their winning two seats, this means their four seats will likely become five after the election.
Eight candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection, with top position reportedly likely to go to Richard Colbeck, the only one out of the party’s four incumbents required to face the voters. Colbeck initially failed to win in 2016 from his fifth place on the Liberal ticket, to which he was demoted after heading the ticket in 2013. This resulted from a purge of Malcolm Turnbull loyalists led by conservative powerbroker Senator Eric Abetz, and inspired a surge of below-the-line votes for Colbeck, though not enough for him to overhaul the top four candidates. As fate would have it though, number five effectively became number four in the recount held after Section 44 prompted the resignation of Stephen Parry in November last year.
Assuming Colbeck takes top place, that will leave a further seven candidates chasing number two, plus the outside chance offered by number three. A newly confirmed starter is Brett Whiteley, who held a state seat for Braddon from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, gained the federal seat for the Liberals at the 2013 election, lost it at the 2016 election, and failed to win it back at last month’s by-election. But with the party under pressure to balance its all-male parliamentary contingent, he seems likely to struggle against Claire Chandler, risk advisory manager at Deloitte Australia and former electorate officer to David Bushby, who reportedly has the backing of Eric Abetz. Also in the field are Tanya Denison, a Hobart alderman; Wendy Summers, political staffer and the sister of David Bushby; Stacey Sheehan, Davenport Chamber of Commerce and Industry president; Kent Townsend, whom I take to be a developer from Launceston; and Craig Brakey, an Ulverstone businessman.
Finally, two other bits of polling I missed:
• Last week I noted Greenpeace had published a ReachTEL poll that included Victorian state voting intention numbers. I missed the more interesting fact that they also had one on federal voting intention from a sample of 3999. It’s getting on a bit now, having been conducted on July 30, but let it be noted that Labor led 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 36.9%, Labor 35.0%, Greens 12.0% and One Nation 8.1% (after exclusion of 5.2% undecided.
• The Courier-Mail had further results from last week’s YouGov Galaxy poll which, despite the newspaper’s best efforts to give an impression to the contrary, found respondents strongly opposed to the company tax cuts. Only 16% registered support for tax cuts for businesses with more than $50 million turnover, which the government has tried and failed to pass through the Senate. Twelve per cent favoured a response that excluded banks from the cuts, and 56% were opposed altogether.
And consequently we don’t seem to have anywhere near the problems the east coast does.
And from Loon HQ we have a statement from a shill,with Rupert’s arm up his clacker!
.@RossCameron4: It’s my melancholy duty to inform you that Australia is about to be plunged into another leadership crisis.
What do we learn?
MORE: bit.ly/2Mlnf8X #Outsiders
“I hope they remember to use the plastic cutlery ”
Nah. They all brought their own shivs…
The further problem for the LNP, of course, is that increasingly large parts of the energy sector are in householders’ hands. It’s more or less inconceivable that any Government would try to seize rooftop solar or any of the myriad installations producing renewables.
Of course, there’s nothing the Commonwealth can do to arrest the development of these sectors. To this extent, the Commonwealth is irrelevant and Labor can drive change in the sector using State economic and legal powers.
And now Rupert trots out his paid for cipher, Rat Richo himself, to put the shiv between Lucien Aye’s shoulderbladea….
“Malcolm Turnbull is a dead man walking. The only question remaining about his leadership is whether it will it be taken out first by the electorate or the Liberal Party caucus. It no longer really matters whether his caucus finally finds the courage to put up a candidate or indeed whether anyone besides Peter Dutton suffers a sudden attack of courage.
The fact is that Malcolm Turnbull has made such mess of his job as Prime Minister that any replacement can only become a sacrificial lamb whimpering on its way to the slaughterhouse.
The PM could not have been more effective in his task if his primary aim had been to destroy the Liberal Party from the grassroots to the top of the tree.
How the Liberal Party ever thought that a person who had sat in my office in 1991 and begged to be placed on the Labor Senate ticket could ever be a true Liberal — let alone lead the Party — is beyond me.
Turnbull never belonged to the Liberal tribe. His every thought has been for himself and the blind loyalty shown to him by good people like Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg, Julie Bishop and company has been all placed on a man who never really shored-up their faith. Why all of them merely looked on as spectators as the Liberal Party members and fellow travellers left in droves will always be a mystery to me.
What he did demonstrate this week is that he really stand for nothing. There is no principle or policy which matters enough to our PM which he won’t discard or jettison to cling on to his job. The former leader of the Republican movement no longer even mentions the issue let alone campaigns for it. He stood for climate change once but ditched it as more and more of his colleagues threatened to cross the floor.”
http://outline.com/cF6G4b
More from the RatRicho…
“It is a delicious irony to Bill Shorten that without Labor support the National Energy Guarantee is dead and buried. The PM has invested most of his time of late telling Australia that Shorten cannot be trusted. Shorten has survived the slurs in good shape while the man who cast all the stones in his direction is about to lose his job.
One of Turnbull’s biggest cop outs was on show this week when he announced he would not even legislate for his modest 26 per cent renewables policy after his party rebels refused to back down and their numbers continued to swell.
Labors energy policy is ridiculously optimistic on renewables. South Australian Labor has already offered us a prime example of the folly of relying on renewables too much at a stage when battery technology is nowhere near the point it would need to reach before wind and solar can be relied upon at a cheaper price. Yet Turnbull’s stubborn attitude to building, financing or guaranteeing the loans of energy companies which might build a couple of new technology coal fired generation plants has meant that the Coalition look like a pale imitation of the Labor Opposition.
Now the Liberals will look at who should take over. Should it be Morrison who has been used and abused by Turnbull? Should it be Dutton, who is the natural candidate of the Right but who always appears angry — and attack dogs rarely win the top job? Should it be Bishop who has done a great job in Foreign Affairs even if some in her team still doubt her on economics. It won’t be Tony Abbott who is probably the only one who could bring back the rank and file and actually boost morale. Too many people would have to admit they were wrong when they dumped him so Abbott will have to wait for a term or two in Opposition if he is to get another chance.
It is hard to remember a time when a government looked in such terminal decay and if the Liberals don’t throw Turnbull out they deserve the massacre which will surely come. I bagged Kevin Rudd as a poor Leader in his first term and as a leaker while Julia Gillard was Prime Minister. I will be eternally grateful though that he was prepared to have another run knowing he would lose.
Rudd saved at least 10 seats and left Labor in reasonable shape. The Liberals desperately need to be find someone prepared to arrest the slide or face a long, long period in the wilderness.‘
The video of Cameron and his offsider lamenting the whole thing is worth watching for their take on history, in particular why Abbott was rolled 😆
https://twitter.com/pleaseuseaussie/status/1030998195608768512
So are we channeling early Menzies? Will enough (mod) Libs bail to give Shorten government without having to have an actual election?
Zoomster
If Turnbull resigns thats 1 MP. If he doesn’t its two. The moderates should make this clear tonight. I somehow doubt its going to happen.
@Sprocket_
Lol using Kevin Rudd as an excuse to replace Turnbull.
Thank you sprocket. Interesting. Perhaps we’ve got PM Morrison to look forward to, if not tonight then soon? And I wonder if a cabinet shuffle is coming regardless of that.
The Addams Family in happier times – Get The Band back Together Again!
Great pic, Itza ….fabulous
“Turnbull never belonged to the Liberal tribe. “
Turnbull belongs to a single member tribe, containing Malcolm Turnbull.
ItzaDream
😆
I suppose this is a test for the waning power of the Murdoch media sewer. There can be no doubt that Rupert, Lord of Cavan, has ventured to his Antipodean possessions and smelt the foul air surrounding Lucien Aye.
So the demented plutocrat (we have something to thank Malcolm for, coming up with soubriquet for the old lecher) has ordered his lackeys to MurderMalcolm. Let’s see how this plays out.
Just sit back and enjoy it all while the tories tear each other apart.
How fitting they are breaking bread in a “last supper” setting.
Schadenfreude with bells on….
sprocket_ @ #1163 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 4:46 pm
*Snorts peppermint tea*
Having predicted both that the Skynoos 2GB loons would go for his throat after Super Saturday and that the NEG was never gonna fly I’m enjoying the show immensely.
But I didn’t think it would get this good so soon.
I fucking hate popcorn
briefly @ #1147 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 6:29 pm
Then they should argue that just terms for the acquisition of electrical assets are “however much profit has been extracted from the asset over the time during which it was privately operated”. Net cost to Commonwealth – $0; because we’ve all already paid the price of having privately-owned natural monopolies on our essential services and infrastructure.
Confessions @ #1151 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 6:32 pm
QLD also has most electrical assets still in state hands, and has had prices go down recently.
Craig Kelly has described NEG as an Emissions Intensity Scheme. If it is, the LNP will split and Turnbull is finished. The LNP are allergic to climate policy. They just cannot do it.
If they split maybe a couple of them will threaten to shear off and join the cross-benchers…..maybe…if the RW can use their numbers against their own party, surely the moderates can play the same game.
Whatever happens now, the LNP cannot entertain defeat in the House. This would bring down the Government and precipitate an election.
This is the Killing Season after all, isn’t it?
I must say that there’s an ill wind that’s blowing no good in Sydney tonight. A portent perhaps?
Must be about time to wheel john howard out again.
“We can win the next election”
Jon Kudlelka tweets
Albo to defect to the libs and then roll Turnbull.
“I fucking hate popcorn”
sorry, but you made need to get used to it in the current circumstances…..
sprocket_
Is that a GeorgeBludger production. ?
.
For Observer a George Bludger from back then
Craig Kelly is happy to take the samson option and bring the whole house down on his head because (I think) he’s been disendorsed for his seat. He’s a definite crosser, no matter what.
boomy1
Plus one billion re popcorn. Totally horrible crap.
Michelle Rowland
Verified account @MRowlandMP
3h3 hours ago
The opening statement of NBNCo to the Joint Standing Committee was retrospectively modified on the #NBN website an hour after Labor called for the regional price hike to be dropped. #auspol
ABC News leading with energy policy crisis. The same energy policy that they were telling us but a few days ago was a stunning victory for Lucien.
Andrew Probyn looks worried, but is reassuring us that those MPs that he has spoken to are committed to Lucien and ‘lowering power prices’.
Maybe they were ALP members…
boomy1 @ #991 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 2:33 pm
We could have a contest. I hate Trumble more than:
Al Dente rice ( I will not forget the restaurant which served me that.)
Fleas hopping on my dogs
Having to buy a new battery for the car
The ringworn I remember getting on my leg, when I was a kid.
Hoon drivers
.
QLD also has most electrical assets still in state hands, and has had prices go down recently.
Which is all the proof you need that it should never have been privatised, or Leased for 99 years in NSW’s case (same same), in the first place.
Adrien
Droll Very Droll 🙂
The Liberal Party can change leaders, or they can keep Turnbull, either look is simply confirmation, alongside the NEG reconfiguration, that the wheels are coming off the Coalition clown car and they are running out of steam and on the path to certain defeat at the election. Whenever whoever leads them to it finally summons up the gumption to call for it and thus looks that defeat square in the eye.
tomjaywilliams tweets (singer social influencer)
Happy international potato day to all the potatoes out there!
What is truly breath-taking is Malcolm’s cowardice. I have never seen the like. That will be his sole legacy. Take your execution like a man you disgusting filthy louse.
Vogon Poet says:
Sunday, August 19, 2018 at 5:38 pm
Rex Douglas @ #1100 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 5:36 pm
Seems like Labor and Turnbull are on NEG unity ticket
___________________
only an idiot would think that.
_______________________
_______________________
Got it in one.
Geez, Rex, give up. You are painful to read. A one track mind.
Grow up, live a little, grow some common sense, if that is possible.
Find someone to love. Have a few beers, relax, kick back, smell the roses. Life is short, death is long.
The Liberals have always been a party that has to be in Government. The cultural shock caused by personal revenge seekers like Abbott is the issue here.
His grouping don’t care whether they are in power or not. It’s all about doing in Turnbull.
Sprocket,
That really is an excellent photoshop, unless it is for real, of course.
When our boss man PM resorts to what is no more than a foot stamp and the threat of his ‘big stick’, even the least politically involved would have to realize what a waste of space he is. The problem for the libs is of course a) replacing him acknowledges they are in trouble (don’t show weakness) and b) who would replace him.
Nothing new to anyone on PB. But I look forward to the news in an hour or two, and then what unfolds through this week.
Philip Adams with a bit on PC
“From anti-PC to bigotry
AUGUST 17, 2018
The current enthusiasm for brutal, take-no-prisoners comment, turning our parliaments, mainstream and social media into minefields of bigotry and bullying, of racial, religious and sexual slurs, was first legitimised by John Howard decades ago in the Tampa “kids overboard” era. When cranking up the fears about boat people that would become a central political issue unhappily ever after, embroiling and shaming both sides of politics, Howard said it was time to end “political correctness”. He was giving licence to say unpleasant things about Asians, indigenous Australians and any other group we might dislike.”
https://outline.com/2eRrg5
@davidbewart tweets
Turnbull sets out power price fix to stay ahead of Coalition rebellion – The Guardian https://nzzl.us/sKEq5UZ via @nuzzel thanks @AmyRemeikis
Turnbull won’t make the nutjobs happy unless he agrees to build the world’s biggest coal-fired plant on top of a mosque. Price controls will send them nuts.
ratsak @ #1050 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 3:44 pm
Indeed, an even more important lesson.
poroti @ #1059 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 4:00 pm
Thanks.
dave @ #1061 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 4:00 pm
Yep. A genuine professional. No fuss or glitz or ‘look at moi’. Just straight reporting on important matters.
ratsak @ #1080
Noice. 🙂
I’ve summarised William Lazonick’s June 2018 article about share buybacks and dividends.
Core problem:
When corporations get tax cuts, they spend the extra money on share buybacks and dividends. They don’t use it to hire more workers, increase wages, invest in productive capacity.
Reasons:
Executives’ compensation is heavily based on share prices. The higher the share price, the more compensation they get. Therefore they are biased in favour of doing things that will increase the share price (distributing dividends to shareholders, and buying back shares).
Since the 1980s executives have focused on the concept of “maximising shareholder value” (MSV). This means that they want to maximise share prices even if that means spending down savings, taking on corporate debt, cutting wages, firing workers, moving workers to precarious work arrangements, selling productive assets, failing to invest in the firm’s productive capacity.
The “maximize shareholder value” concept neglects the importance of the firm investing in its own productive capacity. The concept also neglects the interests of employees, societal wellbeing, reversing environmental damage. Executives cater to a very small constituency (themselves and other major shareholders).
Corporate firms ought to be advancing the interests of a wide range of constituencies, including employees, local communities, environmental protection and restoration.
When a corporate firm carries out open market repurchases of the firm’s shares, the firm is artificially increasing demand for the firm’s shares, which pushes up the price.
Share buybacks also reduce the total number of shares outstanding, which artificially increases the Share Earnings to Share Price ratio (because total earnings are divided by a small number of shares). A higher Earnings to Price ratio makes the shares look more attractive to investors, which increases the share price even more.
Historical context:
Before 1982 in the United States it was illegal for corporate firms to engage in share buybacks because it was categorized as manipulation of the share price. In 1982 the Securities and Exchange Commission (corporate regulator) changed that rule in order to permit share buybacks.
Share buybacks are a form of corporate looting. Shareholders are extracting too much value from the firm. Not enough value of the firm is being distributed to workers. Not enough value is being reinvested in the business. Executives are engaging in wealth extraction rather than wealth creation.
Share buybacks extract wealth that was created in the past. They don’t create wealth for the future.
Who benefits disproportionately from share buybacks?
Executives
Investment banks
Hedge funds
Alternative:
Retain and reinvest corporate model is much better. This is the model that enabled the US to become a great industrial power in the 20th century.
In the retain and reinvest model, the firm retains most of its earnings and invests them in the productive capacity of its business (which includes training workers and giving pay rises to workers; also includes research, development of new products, innovating improved production processes.)
In the retain and reinvest model, typical for a worker to pursue an entire career with one firm. This was good for the firm because it meant they retained the learnings and skills of their workers. Good for the worker because they enjoyed career stability, career progression, wage rises in line with productivity growth.
Retain and reinvest model is justified by the fact that workers and government investments and subsidies contribute a lot to a corporate firm’s value. So the returns should not only be going to shareholders. Corporate returns should also be going to workers and to society as a whole (because the society produces the output that governments are using to ensure public services such as scientific research, good quality infrastructure, subsidies etc that enable corporations to succeed).
Much better than the downsize and distribute corporate model that prevails today.
Flawed assumptions of Maximize Shareholder Value (MSV) corporate ideology/framework:
Assumes that public shareholders provide the funds that the firm needs to develop. Not true. Public shareholders are portfolio investors, not direct investors. Public shareholders own a highly liquid asset – they can sell at any time. It is direct investors who make equity investments BEFORE a firm goes public who enable a firm to develop.
Assumes that workers and society generally don’t have claims on corporate returns. In truth, they do. Workers create value for the firm. Households and businesses create value for the firm. How? Households and firms create output that governments use for scientific research, public service, public infrastructure, which are essential to any corporation’s success. Therefore shareholders, workers, and society generally all have claims on corporate returns. Wrong to allocate nearly all returns to shareholders.
Policy implications:
Reinstate the ban on share buybacks. They are a form of share price manipulation. They undermine productive investment.
http://prospect.org/article/curse-stock-buybacks-0
Perhaps the Libs will see the need to get rid of Abbott for the good of the nation… sorry… dunno what came over me…
PTMD,
That was funny. I laughed. Thanks.
Malcolm, Malcolm, wherefore art thou?