BludgerTrack has been updated this week with new results from Newspoll and Essential Research, both of which provided leadership ratings as well as voting intention, and a Queensland-only federal poll result from YouGov Galaxy. None of this has made any difference to the two-party preferred reading, although both parties are down on the primary vote and One Nation is up. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains a seat in Victoria and loses one in New South Wales, with no change anywhere else. However, conspicuously poor personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll have knocked the edge off his surge in the BludgerTrack trend. Full results from the link below.
Now on to two areas of intense preselection activity this week, involving Labor in the Australian Capital Territory and Liberal in Tasmania.
The former produced an unexpected turn this week when Gai Brodtmann, who has held the seat of Canberra for Labor since 2010, announced she would not seek another term. This leaves the Territory’s vigorous Labor branch with three situations vacant: the lower house seats of Canberra and Bean, and the Senate seat that was vacated by Section 44 casualty Katy Gallagher in May and filled by David Smith.
Smith is now seeking preselection in Bean, which early appeared to be lined up for Brodtmann. Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports Smith has been formally endorsed by the Right, which appears to consider that the Right-aligned Brodtmann should be replaced with one of their own. However, the Left is throwing its weight behind Louise Crossman, manager at the Justice and Community Safety Directorate and former federal staffer and CFMEU industrial officer. Also in the field are Taimus Werner-Gibbings, factionally unaligned staffer to Lisa Singh (and formerly Andrew Leigh), and Gail Morgan, business management consultant and former campaign manager to Brodtmann.
Apparently in retaliation to the Left’s intrusion in Bean, the Right is sponsoring a challenge to Left-aligned Katy Gallagher for the Senate seat, in the person of Victoria Robertson, chief-of-staff to Gai Brodtmann. The race for the Canberra preselection was covered here last week; only the lower house seat of Fenner will be defended by a sitting member, in this case Andrew Leigh.
The news from Tasmania relates to Senate preselection for the Liberals, who are in the happy seat of having a likely Senate seat to spare thanks to the vagaries of the Section 44 affair. When the Senate was carved into short-term and long-term seats after the 2016 double dissolution, the Liberals originally got two seats with six-year terms and two with three-year terms, based on the order of election in which the twelve Senators were elected. However, in the recount after Jacqui Lambie’s disqualification, her party won its seat at a later point in the count, and the Liberals gained a third six-year term at their expense. Given the likelihood of their winning two seats, this means their four seats will likely become five after the election.
Eight candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection, with top position reportedly likely to go to Richard Colbeck, the only one out of the party’s four incumbents required to face the voters. Colbeck initially failed to win in 2016 from his fifth place on the Liberal ticket, to which he was demoted after heading the ticket in 2013. This resulted from a purge of Malcolm Turnbull loyalists led by conservative powerbroker Senator Eric Abetz, and inspired a surge of below-the-line votes for Colbeck, though not enough for him to overhaul the top four candidates. As fate would have it though, number five effectively became number four in the recount held after Section 44 prompted the resignation of Stephen Parry in November last year.
Assuming Colbeck takes top place, that will leave a further seven candidates chasing number two, plus the outside chance offered by number three. A newly confirmed starter is Brett Whiteley, who held a state seat for Braddon from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, gained the federal seat for the Liberals at the 2013 election, lost it at the 2016 election, and failed to win it back at last month’s by-election. But with the party under pressure to balance its all-male parliamentary contingent, he seems likely to struggle against Claire Chandler, risk advisory manager at Deloitte Australia and former electorate officer to David Bushby, who reportedly has the backing of Eric Abetz. Also in the field are Tanya Denison, a Hobart alderman; Wendy Summers, political staffer and the sister of David Bushby; Stacey Sheehan, Davenport Chamber of Commerce and Industry president; Kent Townsend, whom I take to be a developer from Launceston; and Craig Brakey, an Ulverstone businessman.
Finally, two other bits of polling I missed:
• Last week I noted Greenpeace had published a ReachTEL poll that included Victorian state voting intention numbers. I missed the more interesting fact that they also had one on federal voting intention from a sample of 3999. It’s getting on a bit now, having been conducted on July 30, but let it be noted that Labor led 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 36.9%, Labor 35.0%, Greens 12.0% and One Nation 8.1% (after exclusion of 5.2% undecided.
• The Courier-Mail had further results from last week’s YouGov Galaxy poll which, despite the newspaper’s best efforts to give an impression to the contrary, found respondents strongly opposed to the company tax cuts. Only 16% registered support for tax cuts for businesses with more than $50 million turnover, which the government has tried and failed to pass through the Senate. Twelve per cent favoured a response that excluded banks from the cuts, and 56% were opposed altogether.
Re minefield depiction. Lucien could be Sideshow Bob from the Simpsons . Sideshow considers himself the smartest guy in the room but somehow he always ends up……..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WZLJpMOxS4
boomy
Glad you admit it.
Thank you.
Now we can continue castigating the LNP for the disaster that is their climate and energy policy that they have brought on this country.
Dirty dick is hardly able to talk about *trust*
James Raynes –
Q: What’s worse than being paid $4 an hour by @TurnbullMalcolm?
A: Being paid $3.75 an hour by @RichardDiNatale.
What a shit package from LNP:
Michael McCormack
Verified account @M_McCormackMP
55m55 minutes ago
We are providing new tax breaks, low-interest loans and additional funding for local infrastructure in drought affected areas. #auspol
dave
The enemy is the LNP. Di Natale said only Labor would work on reducing emissions. Thats the take out.
Ignore the don’t trust bit. Di Natale won’t be around for long. He is a bad leader as I have said before.
Don’t look for the negative look for the positive for Labor. The media will look for the negative for Labor enough for you.
poroti says:
Sunday, August 19, 2018 at 2:58 pm
Don
Surfactant compatibility is real problem for us. Farmers like to mix as many chemicals as possible into each mix so as to save on multiple applications.
____________________
Absolutely. If it works you have saved a lot of time and money.
:large
I will rephrase my response to dave for everyone another way.
With Di Natale saying only Labor will reduce emissions what he is really saying is Labor is the only major party taking climate change seriously.
Thats pure gold for Labor. Not even the MSM can then pretend that the LNP are anything other than the flat earther party
YOU DO NOT GET IT GUYTAUR. I DON’T CARE IF YOU ARE HOMOSEXUAL. i DON’T GIVE A SHIT.
boomy
Then stop bringing it up. Get over it. I will continue to post what I think are political gay things whatever you think of it.
I won’t shut up about gay political issues.
Telling me to shut up just means I will post more of them.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/green-voters-are-snobs-says-labor-survey/news-story/9966be6beaf5020c3a82616d7d923a96
boomy
Just for you.
https://media.istockphoto.com/photos/true-love-picture-id486874704
Facts is facts. And like it or not only Guytaur can haz facts. Fact.
You can’t haz facts. Fact.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-03/coalition-and-greens-strike-deal-on-multi-national-tax-avoidance/6997328
Then stop bringing it up. Get over it.
What does being gay mean anyway. We are all things roaming the planet Why label us.
Ratsak
No matter how many times you post it you cannot change the facts.
Gillard legislated a carbon price. Abbott the LNP and allies voted to scrap it. The votes are recorded in Hansard.
Simple.
The policy failure is not the blame of the Greens
boomy
Stop thinking about it or go and do some gay sex and get it out of your system. Either way you will feel better.
Poroti wrt Sideshow Bob.
Brill.
LOL. Didn’t the term Teal Greens originate courtesy of a PBer?
And what a frightening prospect the Melbourne Greens are – just like the Liberals! *shudders*.
dave @ #1010 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 3:36 pm
I think we all knew that 🙁
Interestingly, while googling that article, the article that came up just below it was this …
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/05/public-concerns-high-immigration-suppressed/
It’s a very illuminating read …
…
…
Australians are clearly brighter than most of their politicians 🙁
The Truth! guytaur 3 chords and the truth!
Confessions
Saying the Greens are just like the LNP is just as wrong as saying the LNP are same same as Labor.
Flys in the face of reality.
Also you appear to be blaming voters. Not a good look for a party trying to win an election.
You’re a Big Biz Fat Cat. You make juicy donations to the Liberal Party to keep those damn socialists out of government and ensure nice tax cuts for you and your mates.
You had real high hopes for Brian Trumble. He’d be a chap like you. Happy to fuck over the poor to help you afford a bigger yacht.
But now those tax cuts you were going to scam a bigger bonus off the back of are dead.
That Banking RC that was supposed to never happen is exposing the corruption at the heart of pretty much all big business.
And now he’s out there bashing on Electricity companies and threatening price controls and forced break up of integrated companies.
And despite all this the damn Socialists look like they’re going to win anyway.
You’re not really thinking about sticking your neck out for Brian are you? You’re not looking to send big cheques the Libs way. You’re thinking ‘better get in the good books with this Shorten character’. Perhaps even letting it be known in Liberal Party circles that perhaps a switch to a Bishop or a Morrison might be in order. Shame that Trumble fellow turned out to be such a disappointment of course, but business is business.
boomy
Considering I was talking about a fact this morning. Given I did not bring up my sexuality. Yes truth indeed!!
Attacking me based on my sexuality for pointing out that truth as I have been doing all day today to get it through some thick heads the LNP is at fault for climate change failure is very a very low bullying homophobic form of attack.
guytaur, I reckon you’d be a dud root.
There are some subjects which are boring as batshit.
Lizzie
Did he say how he is going to enforce it on the States?
I don’t have FB so any explanation welcome 🙂
boomy
I don’t care what you think but that is precisely homophobic bullying language. I know because its often used by the bullies. Anything to demean and humiliate
The ABC reported on MT’s Grand Plan. The piece I copied is your lot.
“Ignore the don’t trust bit”
What is wrong with these people?
Lizzie
Thanks.
I guess the point about states power is still eluding the media then.
Can we have another poll to talk about!?!
I go out ALL day and I come back to see guytaur still ramming his gayness up everyone’s clacker and divorcing himself from the reality that The Greens are closer to the small ‘l’ Liberal Party than Labor these days.
Even though we get their preferences back ~80% of the time. Though I hazard a guess that is a global number comprising, in the main those people in the regions and outer urban areas that vote Green 1 Labor 2 because they want their local environment preserved and no coal mining or fracking in their area, as opposed to the more boutique concerns of the Inner City Greens.
Well, at least that’s my observation from actually speaking to these people and not just presupposing that my Inner City conceits apply to everyone who votes Green.
Dutton in that Rowe cartoon reminds me of Lurch.
OK.
jeffemu @ #809 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 8:45 am
Obvious retort.
Certainly not, but you are!!!! 🙂
Can guytaur and boomy either get a frickin’ room and piss off, or stop sniping at each other and stop posting about your sex lives!
Too much bloody information!!
Roger
I said that because I want Labor to win government. The important point for Labor is the only of the two major parties that is going to deal with climate change.
Thats a vote winner for Labor.
Its why Turnbull tries and cons people he will do something to save people from climate change.
Its why his failure to stand up to his back bench is such a stark failure of leadership.
Having the Greens on high repeat saying this does not hurt Labor at all.
jenauthor @ #303 Saturday, August 18th, 2018 – 5:28 pm
I am increasingly impressed by Shorten’s economy of action, along with his deft sense of timing and positioning.
Also seems that he is somebody who knows how and when to seek and take good advice.
———————-
lizzie @ #549 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 7:55 am
Sean Dorney’s voice has been one of the background mainstays of regional news for me, since he first started in 1974. He is one of those journos who showed by sustained example just what real professional journos do and how they do it.
His retrenching by ABC in 2014 was a bad mistake.
I wish him and his family all the best.
———————-
j341983 @ #975
Outstanding comment.
My main criticism of the Greens, and it is a very serious one, is that they are still politically naive.
My advice to them is to learn to compromise, and forget the Reps, just concentrate on getting the balance of power in the Senate. Far more bang for your buck.
———————-
Poroti
I was told by a botanist that adding just single-digit parts-per-million of urea (i.e. nitrogen) to a glyphosate solution (ready to spray diluted form) helps increase its uptake by the plant.
True?
“Labor has dubbed them “Teal Greens”, with teal being a colour blend of green and blue.”
.
I would much prefer Cyan. Blue Green as in as in Cyanobacteria aka Blue Green Algae. Poisonous when they reach too high a concentration.
lizzie @ #718 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 7:30 am
Like it or not, guytaur doesn’t do nuance! 🙂
lizzie
I say like it or not because some here will not accept a politician being a politician.
Somehow the politician has to pretend to be the mythical non politician to satisfy all the “pure” claims of Labor partisans.
There appears to be some confusion…
Deputy Nationals Leader Bridget McKenzie said she learnt of the changes to Mr Turnbull’s policy through his public announcement and expected to be briefed on them at a cabinet dinner on Sunday night.
Asked whether she backed Mr Turnbull, the senator said his government’s record speaks for itself.
“I think Malcolm Turnbull is our prime minister and I would like to see him stay as prime minister,” she told Sky News on Sunday.
The Nats Deputy only thinks Trumble is PM. I can of course understand the confusion, and obviously it’s much worse for a Nat where the word ‘think’ has a different meaning than for the rest of us. But it’s good to know even senior members of the Government are unsure of who exactly our PM is.
Perhaps there’s a quantum field effect at play with Trumble. Would kind of make sense as he’s so insubstantial being massless would not be a surprise. He can be both the PM and not the PM at the same time, a field of infinite potential Trumble failure. Heisenberg Uncertainty means you can know the direction of Trumble’s capitulation, or you can know the size of the capitulation, but you can’t know both at the same time.
The Coalition will have their best minds on it. I’m sure they’ll clear it up soon.
Ratsak
What a surprise. Turnbull springs a new policy to appease on the eve of his great party room meeting for a victory and yet again a lot are left out of the loop.
Such winning ways Mr Turnbull has 🙂
The Guardian tweets
Lombok: magnitude-6.3 earthquake rocks Indonesian island https://trib.al/FrkMmqK
Poor sods not getting a break.
The Guardian tweets
Lombok: magnitude-6.3 earthquake rocks Indonesian island https://trib.al/FrkMmqK
Poor sods not getting a break.
One of the many lessons from the Abbott-Turnbull era of government is that captain’s calls are not a smart tactic.
JM,
The lesson is probably more that having Captains as hopeless as Abbott and Trumble is not a smart tactic.