BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings lose their lustre, but the poll trend records no change on voting intention. Also featured: preselection action from Labor in the ACT and the Liberals in Tasmania.

BludgerTrack has been updated this week with new results from Newspoll and Essential Research, both of which provided leadership ratings as well as voting intention, and a Queensland-only federal poll result from YouGov Galaxy. None of this has made any difference to the two-party preferred reading, although both parties are down on the primary vote and One Nation is up. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains a seat in Victoria and loses one in New South Wales, with no change anywhere else. However, conspicuously poor personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll have knocked the edge off his surge in the BludgerTrack trend. Full results from the link below.

Now on to two areas of intense preselection activity this week, involving Labor in the Australian Capital Territory and Liberal in Tasmania.

The former produced an unexpected turn this week when Gai Brodtmann, who has held the seat of Canberra for Labor since 2010, announced she would not seek another term. This leaves the Territory’s vigorous Labor branch with three situations vacant: the lower house seats of Canberra and Bean, and the Senate seat that was vacated by Section 44 casualty Katy Gallagher in May and filled by David Smith.

Smith is now seeking preselection in Bean, which early appeared to be lined up for Brodtmann. Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports Smith has been formally endorsed by the Right, which appears to consider that the Right-aligned Brodtmann should be replaced with one of their own. However, the Left is throwing its weight behind Louise Crossman, manager at the Justice and Community Safety Directorate and former federal staffer and CFMEU industrial officer. Also in the field are Taimus Werner-Gibbings, factionally unaligned staffer to Lisa Singh (and formerly Andrew Leigh), and Gail Morgan, business management consultant and former campaign manager to Brodtmann.

Apparently in retaliation to the Left’s intrusion in Bean, the Right is sponsoring a challenge to Left-aligned Katy Gallagher for the Senate seat, in the person of Victoria Robertson, chief-of-staff to Gai Brodtmann. The race for the Canberra preselection was covered here last week; only the lower house seat of Fenner will be defended by a sitting member, in this case Andrew Leigh.

The news from Tasmania relates to Senate preselection for the Liberals, who are in the happy seat of having a likely Senate seat to spare thanks to the vagaries of the Section 44 affair. When the Senate was carved into short-term and long-term seats after the 2016 double dissolution, the Liberals originally got two seats with six-year terms and two with three-year terms, based on the order of election in which the twelve Senators were elected. However, in the recount after Jacqui Lambie’s disqualification, her party won its seat at a later point in the count, and the Liberals gained a third six-year term at their expense. Given the likelihood of their winning two seats, this means their four seats will likely become five after the election.

Eight candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection, with top position reportedly likely to go to Richard Colbeck, the only one out of the party’s four incumbents required to face the voters. Colbeck initially failed to win in 2016 from his fifth place on the Liberal ticket, to which he was demoted after heading the ticket in 2013. This resulted from a purge of Malcolm Turnbull loyalists led by conservative powerbroker Senator Eric Abetz, and inspired a surge of below-the-line votes for Colbeck, though not enough for him to overhaul the top four candidates. As fate would have it though, number five effectively became number four in the recount held after Section 44 prompted the resignation of Stephen Parry in November last year.

Assuming Colbeck takes top place, that will leave a further seven candidates chasing number two, plus the outside chance offered by number three. A newly confirmed starter is Brett Whiteley, who held a state seat for Braddon from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, gained the federal seat for the Liberals at the 2013 election, lost it at the 2016 election, and failed to win it back at last month’s by-election. But with the party under pressure to balance its all-male parliamentary contingent, he seems likely to struggle against Claire Chandler, risk advisory manager at Deloitte Australia and former electorate officer to David Bushby, who reportedly has the backing of Eric Abetz. Also in the field are Tanya Denison, a Hobart alderman; Wendy Summers, political staffer and the sister of David Bushby; Stacey Sheehan, Davenport Chamber of Commerce and Industry president; Kent Townsend, whom I take to be a developer from Launceston; and Craig Brakey, an Ulverstone businessman.

Finally, two other bits of polling I missed:

• Last week I noted Greenpeace had published a ReachTEL poll that included Victorian state voting intention numbers. I missed the more interesting fact that they also had one on federal voting intention from a sample of 3999. It’s getting on a bit now, having been conducted on July 30, but let it be noted that Labor led 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 36.9%, Labor 35.0%, Greens 12.0% and One Nation 8.1% (after exclusion of 5.2% undecided.

• The Courier-Mail had further results from last week’s YouGov Galaxy poll which, despite the newspaper’s best efforts to give an impression to the contrary, found respondents strongly opposed to the company tax cuts. Only 16% registered support for tax cuts for businesses with more than $50 million turnover, which the government has tried and failed to pass through the Senate. Twelve per cent favoured a response that excluded banks from the cuts, and 56% were opposed altogether.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,332 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor”

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  2. Victoria @ #793 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 11:33 am

    GG

    Speaking of Daniel Andrews.
    The state of Victoria is in the middle of the biggest building and infrastructure cycle ever.
    Surely state Labor should win election comfortably

    It’s what I’ve been saying for awhile, now!

    Mernda trainline extension opens next Sunday!

  3. Victoria says: Sunday, August 19, 2018 at 11:29 am

    PhoenixRed

    Are you liking the book?
    It has had great reviews and has topped the New York Times best seller list!

    *************************************************

    Yes – its a GREAT read – just like anything that Rick writes – full of information and his acerbic wit. I sense a great deal of hurt in what he and other GOP stalwarts have suffered and still every day suffer another Trump scandal or temper tantrum has done to the political party he has been a warrior for so many years . It is less ‘gossipy’ than say Michael Wolff’s – Fire and Fury but more into the mechanics of US politics…… and how Trump is the ultimate conman that defies any form of decency and integrity …..

    There is another good book on the horizon – by Craig Unger – House of Trump, House of Putin: The Untold Story of Donald Trump and the Russian Mafia – offers the first comprehensive investigation into the decades-long relationship among Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and the Russian Mafia that ultimately helped win Trump the White House.

  7. As a confessed Question Time junkie I am looking forward to this week. It should be top shelf fun.

    What I have noticed recently is that Labor have started to openly laugh at PM Lucien Aye as he replies to Q’s and he responds with the usual – I see that the honourable members think this is a laughing matter. Then he starts to lose it.

    I believe there will be a lot of laughter (and some silly questions like the Member for Wakefields last week) from those on my left which should stir PM Trumble into heated responces.

    I remember back when Labor started to openly laugh at Speaker Marge Bishop and her biased rulings. They’d laugh as one member after another was 94a’d out of the joint.

  8. Don@11:19am
    From wiki on Volcanoes
    Volcanic ash can block sun and cool earth’s surface temperatures. Historically, Volcanic winters caused catastrophic famines.
    Prolonged droughts can lead to famine. Every country on this earth is not a rich country like Australia. Hence, people of those countries may not get adequate help from their government. For example take African countries.

  9. phoenixRed:

    I’m going to buy Rick’s book for the reasons you are enjoying it. I love his writing style, and reckon he’d tell a good yarn in a long format like a book.

  12. jeffemu

    I feel sometimes that the current Speaker bases his rulings on ‘precedent’. Unfortunately that may include some of Bishop’s mad biased rulings.

  13. Confessions says: Sunday, August 19, 2018 at 11:47 am

    phoenixRed:

    I’m going to buy Rick’s book for the reasons you are enjoying it. I love his writing style, and reckon he’d tell a good yarn in a long format like a book.

    ********************************************

    Another major point of Ricks book – is the notion that in Trump world – the living envy the dead – a description he gives to that everyone involved with Trump ends up with reputations destroyed and their lives in tatters….. as his book title says – Everything Trump Touches Dies

  15. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, August 19, 2018 at 11:25 am
    don
    Trial and error is excellent.
    Do you use a wetting agent?

    _______________________

    Yes. I have found that a good solid squirt of dishwashing detergent, more than you would use for a sinkful of dishes, in a 25 litre container helps greatly – not only is the coverage improved, as you would expect, but the spray seems to put out a more effective, smaller droplet size.

    But I have no way of measuring that.

    Previously I had used only a small quantity of detergent.

    Since upping the detergent concentration, I have also used a lot less spray, and it is more effective.

  16. Weed killers.

    I have killed my share of weeds and sprays and swabbed with my fair share of weed killer. However, I have become far less weed focused in my regeneration project. I am not looking for perfection – I am looking to maximise the good. That can mean deliberately leaving large swathes of weeds (or only slowly beating it back) especially if a) the weeds are habitat or food (which they often are both) and b) if all that will result is another weed taking over the area that may be harder to deal with.

    Also, many natives will happily co-exist with weeds. Often all that is required is a little maintenance – and this can be completely chemical free.

    Finally, in some areas, the best method of regeneration is a D9 or grader or 4WD tractor stripping the top 100mm of earth and weeds with it. The regrowth of the natives can be astounding – plants not seen in the area for 50years can sprout up. And without the nutrient load of that top 100mm of soil the natives will out compete weeds with only an occasional hand weed.

  17. guytaur says:
    Sunday, August 19, 2018 at 11:44 am
    The LNP and Trump peas in a pod

    Yup, and to the extent the Gs ride shotgun for the LNP they are also Trumpist. This is not unusual. The pseudo-left run interference for Putin and the other right-wingers all the time. It’s staple trade for them.

  19. Briefly

    You rave as normal. Unlike the US our voting system has preferential voting. Labor needs those preferences no matter how much you dislike it.

  22. McGahn is White House counsel. The status of what that means is diminished by Trump. McGahn MIGHT have just enough integrity to do what most of the republicans won’t – excise the cancer that is this regime.

    If I were the Veep – I’d be resigning now … because he’ll get taken down with the clapped-out fishing trawler that is Trump

  25. GG

    Yes. I got the pamphlet re changes to bus routes etc!
    Still hasn’t encouraged my daughter to buy something in the Doreen/Mernda area.
    She is off to Munich soon. She will be there for six months. When she returns, will resume ppty search.

  26. guytaur says:
    Sunday, August 19, 2018 at 11:58 am
    Briefly

    You rave as normal. Unlike the US our voting system has preferential voting. Labor needs those preferences no matter how much you dislike it.

    I look forward to the day when the Gs vote for their own dissolution and their voters align behind Labor, restoring the Labor-loyal plurality to the high 40s as was long the case; to the level that made modern Australia possible, that gave rise to the Curtin/Chifley, Whitlam and Hawke Governments; the Governments that well and truly advanced Australia.

    The Gs are a pimple on the arse of Australian politics.

  27. John Dean sees ‘good reason’ for McGahn to suspect ‘Trump would throw him under the bus’

    McGahn has met with the team of special prosecutor Robert Mueller for extensive interviews, the New York Times reports.

    While Trump maintains that he OK’d the meetings, Dean believes that McGahn’s enthusiasm may be “self-preservation.”

    “I think there is good reason for McGahn to believe that Trump would throw him under the bus, since Trump throws almost everyone under the bus,” Dean told Slate. today. “I don’t think it is a reach to have that in your consciousness. And the [New York Times] article does say that he and his lawyer, once they were told to go talk to the special counsel, indeed did so, and were relieved to be able to do so, to explain McGahn’s position and involvement in these things.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/john-dean-sees-good-reason-mcgahn-suspect-trump-throw-bus/

  28. Victoria and GG

    For what it is worth I think Labor will win a majority in the state election. I don’t see any evidence the Greens have increased their campaign abilities.

    Since then we have had the exposure of the sexism and ignoring the complaints of woman #metoo style and I think thats going to hurt the Greens chances and increase Labor’s.

    As for the LNP I think they will go backwards because I imagine Mr Andrews is going to have fun with some Lobster advertising campaigning 🙂

  29. Many of the CPG are now welded to the seats of the Turnbull bus. They will only see the crash coming in hindsight as they are stretchered away.

  30. Simon² Katich®

    You make good points. Also, with the continuing unstable weather, I have decided that unless a plant is a declared ‘noxious weed’, if it is happy and performing a useful purpose I shall leave it alone. I would rather not have bare earth.

  31. Briefly

    I look forward to the day when Labor starts opposing offshore detention by doing an Abbott and doing what it takes to restore sanity in the immigration space.

    Taking the Turn back the boats policy as very good reason to undo Howard’s excision of parts of Australia for immigration. Putin would just love Ukraine to do that with Crimea.

    And the LNP pretend they care about sovereignty

  32. The White House Counsel is not the President’s in-house lawyer. Their role is independent and is intended to ensure administration officials are instructed on and comply with the law.

    It would always be open to the Counsel to interact on matters of legal compliance with an investigator.

  40. guytaur, Labor are not going to oblige the Gs. The next Labor government will not make the same errors as the last one, and they most certainly will not respond to G provocation, insult, abuse, defamation and sanctimony.

  42. guytaur @ #831 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 12:09 pm

    Briefly

    I look forward to the day when Labor starts opposing offshore detention by doing an Abbott and doing what it takes to restore sanity in the immigration space.

    Taking the Turn back the boats policy as very good reason to undo Howard’s excision of parts of Australia for immigration. Putin would just love Ukraine to do that with Crimea.

    And the LNP pretend they care about sovereignty

    Labor are on a unity ticket with Dutton.

    The Labor left have capitulated. Albo has his 30 pieces of silver. Ged has gone on vacation to parts unknown and Butler is enjoying his Sunday roast dining with the factions.

  43. Ven says:
    Sunday, August 19, 2018 at 11:46 am
    Don@11:19am
    From wiki on Volcanoes
    Volcanic ash can block sun and cool earth’s surface temperatures. Historically, Volcanic winters caused catastrophic famines.
    Prolonged droughts can lead to famine. Every country on this earth is not a rich country like Australia. Hence, people of those countries may not get adequate help from their government. For example take African countries.

    _______________

    Yes, the eruption of volcanoes can cause differences in the earth’s temperatures, that is well known.

    But your original comment implied that global warming could trigger earthquakes and the eruption of volcanoes, which is not the case.

  44. Global warming is already affecting the ‘earthquake season’, usually tied with the monsoons in Asia..I can’t remember all the details but the huge rains and flooding each year cause an enormous weight of water to press on the earth, earthquakes have a tendency to cluster around the weight of the water pressing down and then being released. Interruptions to normal rain patterns, especially much heavier monsoon rain, helps increase earthquake activity.
    Even the weight of a dam (like the 3 Gorges) increases earthquake activity.

  46. Ratsak@11:32am
    Is the following scenario possible?
    MT is defeated in the leadership ballot. Then does he and his band of supporters (say about 15) break up with LNP and set up as a new party calling themselves Liberal Party (Menzies) and vote against the party led by Dutton in Parliament so that we can go to elections because no party has majority support in House of reps. If that happens he and his supporters may be wiped out in elections but Dutton party will be defeated, which itself will be a service to the nation. We all have to remember that MT invested $1.75 millions of his own money in LNP in last election to become PM.
    Also, there was a report last year in SMH that Abbott campaign was floundering in last election when MT interfered and pumped money into that seat campaign. Abbott was very angry when that report came out.
    So MT may think that all these LNP are ungrateful and pull the plug/ trigger

  47. “So far as I am aware, global warming does not affect the occurrence of earthquakes and the eruption of volcanoes.”

    Except maybe in Antarctica. Loss of ice from humungous glaciers running to the sea faster, landmass rebounding as the weight comes off, heat from volcanic hotspots lubing it up as the landmass under the ice shifts…….bit of a cycle thing?? Possible not good in terms of sea level rise.

  49. Simon² Katich® @ #829 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 12:07 pm

    Many of the CPG are now welded to the seats of the Turnbull bus. They will only see the crash coming in hindsight as they are stretchered away.

    As one of their ‘leading lights’ says –

    Chris Uhlmann – calls citizen journalism “terrible”, Twitter a “sewer”, says Aus media is mostly leftwing, claims to be a political prophet…….

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/australian-politics—a-review/10012994 … …

    If the CPG did the OPPOSITE of what they say in print – they would get the calls right most of the time…..

    But they cannot.

    Whose bread they eat, whose song they sing.

    The temerity to refer to themselves as the Fourth Estate.

    They are owned by and operate for the top end of town with some honourable exceptions eg Adele Ferguson etc.

  50. guytaur says:
    Sunday, August 19, 2018 at 12:16 pm
    Briefly

    I spoke as an individual not the Greens. There is your mistake. You see anything independent as attacking Labor

    You’re a G-apologist. You carry their drinks and their bags. Do yourself a favour and give up the pretence that you’re anything but this. The Gs might like to tell Labor what they should and shouldn’t do; how they may improve and become greener than green. But Labor are not listening to the Gs. Labor’s conversations are are with voters, with their own supporters. If Labor win the next election and form a strong government, it will be despite the Gs rather than because of them. This is well-understood.

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