BludgerTrack has been updated this week with new results from Newspoll and Essential Research, both of which provided leadership ratings as well as voting intention, and a Queensland-only federal poll result from YouGov Galaxy. None of this has made any difference to the two-party preferred reading, although both parties are down on the primary vote and One Nation is up. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains a seat in Victoria and loses one in New South Wales, with no change anywhere else. However, conspicuously poor personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll have knocked the edge off his surge in the BludgerTrack trend. Full results from the link below.
Now on to two areas of intense preselection activity this week, involving Labor in the Australian Capital Territory and Liberal in Tasmania.
The former produced an unexpected turn this week when Gai Brodtmann, who has held the seat of Canberra for Labor since 2010, announced she would not seek another term. This leaves the Territory’s vigorous Labor branch with three situations vacant: the lower house seats of Canberra and Bean, and the Senate seat that was vacated by Section 44 casualty Katy Gallagher in May and filled by David Smith.
Smith is now seeking preselection in Bean, which early appeared to be lined up for Brodtmann. Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports Smith has been formally endorsed by the Right, which appears to consider that the Right-aligned Brodtmann should be replaced with one of their own. However, the Left is throwing its weight behind Louise Crossman, manager at the Justice and Community Safety Directorate and former federal staffer and CFMEU industrial officer. Also in the field are Taimus Werner-Gibbings, factionally unaligned staffer to Lisa Singh (and formerly Andrew Leigh), and Gail Morgan, business management consultant and former campaign manager to Brodtmann.
Apparently in retaliation to the Left’s intrusion in Bean, the Right is sponsoring a challenge to Left-aligned Katy Gallagher for the Senate seat, in the person of Victoria Robertson, chief-of-staff to Gai Brodtmann. The race for the Canberra preselection was covered here last week; only the lower house seat of Fenner will be defended by a sitting member, in this case Andrew Leigh.
The news from Tasmania relates to Senate preselection for the Liberals, who are in the happy seat of having a likely Senate seat to spare thanks to the vagaries of the Section 44 affair. When the Senate was carved into short-term and long-term seats after the 2016 double dissolution, the Liberals originally got two seats with six-year terms and two with three-year terms, based on the order of election in which the twelve Senators were elected. However, in the recount after Jacqui Lambie’s disqualification, her party won its seat at a later point in the count, and the Liberals gained a third six-year term at their expense. Given the likelihood of their winning two seats, this means their four seats will likely become five after the election.
Eight candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection, with top position reportedly likely to go to Richard Colbeck, the only one out of the party’s four incumbents required to face the voters. Colbeck initially failed to win in 2016 from his fifth place on the Liberal ticket, to which he was demoted after heading the ticket in 2013. This resulted from a purge of Malcolm Turnbull loyalists led by conservative powerbroker Senator Eric Abetz, and inspired a surge of below-the-line votes for Colbeck, though not enough for him to overhaul the top four candidates. As fate would have it though, number five effectively became number four in the recount held after Section 44 prompted the resignation of Stephen Parry in November last year.
Assuming Colbeck takes top place, that will leave a further seven candidates chasing number two, plus the outside chance offered by number three. A newly confirmed starter is Brett Whiteley, who held a state seat for Braddon from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, gained the federal seat for the Liberals at the 2013 election, lost it at the 2016 election, and failed to win it back at last month’s by-election. But with the party under pressure to balance its all-male parliamentary contingent, he seems likely to struggle against Claire Chandler, risk advisory manager at Deloitte Australia and former electorate officer to David Bushby, who reportedly has the backing of Eric Abetz. Also in the field are Tanya Denison, a Hobart alderman; Wendy Summers, political staffer and the sister of David Bushby; Stacey Sheehan, Davenport Chamber of Commerce and Industry president; Kent Townsend, whom I take to be a developer from Launceston; and Craig Brakey, an Ulverstone businessman.
Finally, two other bits of polling I missed:
• Last week I noted Greenpeace had published a ReachTEL poll that included Victorian state voting intention numbers. I missed the more interesting fact that they also had one on federal voting intention from a sample of 3999. It’s getting on a bit now, having been conducted on July 30, but let it be noted that Labor led 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 36.9%, Labor 35.0%, Greens 12.0% and One Nation 8.1% (after exclusion of 5.2% undecided.
• The Courier-Mail had further results from last week’s YouGov Galaxy poll which, despite the newspaper’s best efforts to give an impression to the contrary, found respondents strongly opposed to the company tax cuts. Only 16% registered support for tax cuts for businesses with more than $50 million turnover, which the government has tried and failed to pass through the Senate. Twelve per cent favoured a response that excluded banks from the cuts, and 56% were opposed altogether.
Malcolm will just be realising that it wasn’t a bad dream. It’s really happening.
Scientists have to remain hopeful or there’d be a mass suicide under the Coalition.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/08/18/accounting-trick-frames-reef-grant/15345144006727
Malcolm – please take note, your NEG will do nothing to help the planet
With the hottest years on record all occurring in the last five years—and with no end in sight—Sanders warns in his new video that “we cannot simply sit back and allow this beautiful planet to be destroyed.”
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/08/17/watch-what-bill-mckibben-calls-one-best-and-most-straightforward-videos-about
“Is the government’s extraordinary outsourcing of responsibility a genuine attempt at doing things differently and better? Or is it rushed scheme to meet an arbitrary obligation?”
Responsibility can’t be outsourced.
Good morning Lucien Aye..
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Peter Hartcher sees little joy ahead for Turnbull as the RWNJ’s take effective control of the energy policy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/little-pleasure-ahead-for-turnbull-as-mps-wrestle-to-control-energy-policy-20180817-p4zy70.html
David Crowe says a moment is coming in Federal Parliament when Tony Abbott can exact the most grievous revenge against those who brought him undone three years ago. The showdown is looming.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-showdown-is-looming-between-tony-abbott-and-malcolm-turnbull-20180817-p4zy2r.html
Inside the plan to roll Turnbull ‘within weeks’.
https://outline.com/3pfP4c
Paula Matthewson reckons it’s Abbott who is pulling the strings with the Dutton leadership challenge talk.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/08/17/peter-dutton-leadership-challenge/
The Grattan Institute’s Tony Wood writes that transforming Australia’s energy system should not be beyond us.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/transforming-australia-s-energy-system-should-not-be-beyond-us-20180816-p4zxu5.html
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s plan for a regulated benchmark electricity price has been lying around waiting to be picked up by the Turnbull government and waved around like a big stick for more than a month but it may not yet be ready for the Coalition party room.
https://www.outline.com/2fB7G6
Katharine Murphy writes about Turnbull ditching the Paris agreement.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/17/trump-manafort-pardon-trial-jury-latest-news
And here’s Michelle Grattan’s take on said dumping.
https://theconversation.com/turnbull-dumps-emissions-legislation-to-stop-rebels-crossing-the-floor-101754
The New Daily tells us Turnbull convinced his party room to support his national energy plan – and now he needs to do it all over again after a humiliating backdown in the face of a brewing mutiny.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/08/17/turnbull-paris-climate-neg/
The NSW Minerals Council says it’s time for politicians to put the national interest ahead of their energy ideology and reach an agreement that we can all live with.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-time-for-politicians-to-put-the-national-interest-ahead-of-energy-ideology-20180816-p4zxu1.html
Jack Waterford looks at the NEG problems for Turnbull and at Zed Seselja’s positionings according to his faith.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/act/after-first-skirmish-in-neg-war-omens-are-not-good-20180817-p4zy1z.html
John Collett examines the wrapping up of the last say of the superannuation sitting of the royal commission. Apra did not come out of it well and ASIC wants to go in harder.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/super-session-ends-with-tough-questions-for-regulators-20180817-p4zy3w.html
The AFR’s James Thomson writes on how the banking royal commission has smashed trust in retail super trustees.
https://outline.com/Ujq8pB
Here are the superannuation winners and losers from the royal commission hearings.
https://www.outline.com/NvKFmt
The reputation of Australia’s $600 billion retail super fund industry is in tatters after 10 days of royal commission hearings revealed a conflict-ridden honey pot.
https://www.outline.com/4buwjZ
ASIC says it is poised to launch legal action against major financial institutions over the still-unfolding “fees for no service” scandal, the compensation for which may exceed $1 billion, it has been revealed.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/corporate-cop-poised-for-legal-action-on-fees-for-no-service-20180817-p4zy79.html
It’s not just cyber-thieves and telephone fraudsters who prey on Australia’s elderly – indeed prey on everybody – it’s big business, as demonstrated by the Banking Royal Commission. Entrepreneur Ian Whitworth reports about his Mum.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/big-business-stop-robbing-my-mum/
Simon Cowan writes that Anning is a Senator because of democratic will, not in spite of it – and he’s right.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/anning-is-a-senator-because-of-democratic-will-not-in-spite-of-it-20180816-p4zxvt.html
Senator Fraser Anning’s careless mixing of race and politics is just one example of how the defence of white male privilege is setting democracy on the road to tyranny, writes Carl Rhodes.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/anning-and-latham-fight-for-a-white-male-privilege-final-solution,11795
The road to Fraser Anning is littered by the spectres of Hanson, Katter, Roberts, Dutton and a host of others, writes Suresh Rajan.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-road-to-fracist-anning,11799
John Silvester explains the facts, fiction and furphies of the Melbourne crime gang political games.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/crime-gangs-facts-fiction-and-furphies-20180815-p4zxo2.html
Laura Tingle, after this week’s display of bipartisanship, says that the problem for the Coalition is how it distances itself from the more extreme language of these fringe parties, yet maintain any moral high ground if they engage in their own forms of dog whistling.
https://www.outline.com/nf5TRg
The Saturday Paper’s Sean Kelly examines the march of racism in to the Australian political sphere.
https://www.outline.com/azc6xU
Wendy Squires has written a very good piece which she concludes with “The sobering fact is I don’t want Baron Cohen asking “Who Is Australia?” Because there’s a deep fear within my core these days that I’m not going to like the answer.”
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/how-could-anyone-be-that-stupid-only-in-america-except-not-20180816-p4zxx3.html
Oh dear! The government was warned that there was a “significant” risk that on-the-ground projects for the Great Barrier Reef could be delayed because of a $443.8m grant to the Great Barrier Reef Foundation, documents reveal.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/18/great-barrier-reef-grant-risked-delaying-action-government-was-warned
And Mike Seccombe reveals that the government’s surprise $444 million grant to a private foundation is allegedly being used to fudge its commitment to UNESCO on Barrier Reef protection. A cynical piece of accounting trickery according to Geoff Cousins.
https://outline.com/AeMJSk
Crispin Hull criticises both sides of the MyHealth argument.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/my-health-record-opt-in-and-opt-out-arguments-miss-the-point-20180816-p4zxyt.html
Jess Irvine sees signs of hope for wages growth.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/nearly-a-decade-after-lehman-brothers-stars-align-for-pay-rises-20180817-p4zy3d.html
Elizabeth Knight reckons buying Telstra shares is a gutsy call now,
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/why-buying-telstra-is-still-a-gutsy-bet-20180817-p4zy3o.html
I have a feeling this will just be the start of the exposure of some nasty funny business surrounding the Murray-Darling Basin water management.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-minister-ray-williams-accused-of-political-interference-over-illegal-dam-20180817-p4zy59.html
Like this!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/17/barnaby-joyce-accused-of-tilting-murray-darling-authority-towards-irrigators
And this! Karen Middleton reports on how the Federal government is colluding to nobble the Walker inquiry into the MDB.
https://www.outline.com/ZGgfwx
A senior advisor to Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack has posted inflammatory comments sledging elected Liberal MPs over their opposition to live exports, including calls for Western Australia to secede over the issue. The broad church is fracturing before our eyes.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/senior-advisor-to-deputy-prime-minister-retweets-comments-sledging-liberal-mps-20180816-p4zxz0.html
Dutton’s powerful Department of Home Affairs has outlined issues with the cap on staff levels imposed by the government, speaking out against a controversial government policy. In the department’s official submission to the independent review of the public service, the newest mega-department said agencies needed more power to control the number of staff to meet their operational needs.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/home-affairs-let-us-recruit-more-staff-20180815-p4zxph.html
In a very good contribution this linguistics professor explains how we all play language games – but the boundaries are getting dangerously blurred.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-all-play-language-games-but-the-boundaries-are-getting-dangerously-blurred-20180817-p4zy2y.html
ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr will today call for the federal branch of the Labor party to be bound when voting on territory rights.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/act/barr-calls-for-binding-vote-on-territory-rights-20180817-p4zy6e.html
James Adonis outlines the four types of short-termism that dominate our lives.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/short-termism-causes-journal-long-term-20180816-p4zxvs.html
The narcissist’s big military parade has been axed.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-cancels-military-parade-citing-ridiculously-high-cost-20180817-p4zy80.html
The retired US Navy admiral who oversaw the raid that killed Osama bin Laden has told President Donald Trump in a letter that he would be honoured if Trump would revoke his security clearance just as he did to former CIA director John Brennan.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/president-trump-revoke-my-security-clearance-too-20180817-p4zxzk.html
The judge in the trial of Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman Paul Manafort has said he will not release the names of the jurors in the high-profile case because he has received threats and fears for their safety. Trump’s inflammatory comments haven’t helped one bit!
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/17/trump-manafort-pardon-trial-jury-latest-news
Lawrence Douglas describes Trump as a Twittertarian: a distraction despot in the age of social media.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/17/trump-john-brennan-security-clearance-revoked-distraction-social-media
Sally Whyte reports that the big four accounting firms defended their independence to a parliamentary inquiry yesterday, denying collusion and emphasising their value for money.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/consultants-defend-independence-deny-government-is-the-dairy-20180817-p4zy7a.html
It’s not only the NSW coronial service that has got problems. Now the Victorian State Coroner Sara Hinchey has taken the unprecedented step of standing aside after a complaint accusing her of intimidating staff and undermining the independence of other coroners was lodged with the Judicial Commission.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/court-in-crisis-state-coroner-stands-aside-after-bullying-claim-20180817-p4zy71.html
Amanda Meade tells us how ABC cuts are beginning to bite in the depleted newsrooms of Sydney.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/aug/17/abc-cuts-begin-to-bite-in-the-depleted-newsrooms-of-sydney
Italy’s populist government is failing its first big test over the Genoa tragedy.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/17/genoa-morandi-bridge-collapse-italy-five-star-league-coalition-divisions
Macquarie Bank has, for the time being, escaped the gaze of the royal commission but it can’t hide from this.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/total-set-up-macquarie-bank-rocked-by-extortionary-executive-s-metoo-lawsuit-20180814-p4zx9y.html
Cartoon Corner
What a little ripper from Matt Golding!
And another!
David Rowe sees off Aretha Franklin.
And he has Christian Porter having some trouble with the Family Court reconstruction.
Rowe has drawn a great portrait of Counsel Assisting Michael Hodge QC.
Cathy Wilcox explains the NEG quite nicely.
Sean Leahy laments the quality of maths teaching in Queensland.
A timely resurrection of an old Moir cartoon.
A good one from Paul Zanetti.
Some TV ratings news from Mark Knight.
A little gif from Glen Le Lievre.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1030393143827419136
A beautiful effort from David Pope using the death of Aretha Franklin.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/act/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Jon Kudelka with a new ministerial guarantee from Turnbull.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/a5190ac421135d8b0abe8fad2ad5fdaa
Some more good ones in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-august-18-2018-20180817-h144to.html
I shudder and dread at the thought of Dutton as PM. That man eyes scare me. He has no empathy or compassion.
So, according to Peter Hartcher, 39 is going to be the black magic number for the Coalition to roll Turnbull:
Now, I may have this wrong but isn’t this weekend’s Newspoll, if lost, number 39 and the one in September will be number 40? Maybe that’s what they mean? You can’t trust a Coalition MP to speak straight after all. 🙂
I also note that Hartcher gets The Greens bang to rights:
I though so – Malcolm’s cabinet is far too left leaning. He should have had at least Andrews, Abetz & Abbott instead of just Dutton and a couple of other wimps.
ROM the start, Malcolm Turnbull appointed a Cabinet and ministry that is too moderate, too left-leaning for a Conservative backbench. He and his staff do not understand Queensland, and hate the LNP and the Nationals.
https://www.couriermail.com.au/
Greg the Lying Hunt as Dutton’s Deputy scares me just as much.
From last thread
Morning all.
From the bottom of Crowe’s article on the ‘NEG’.
Cabinet ministers are hoping to secure support from two crossbenchers, Cathy McGowan and Rebekha Sharkie, to shore up the numbers.
I wonder how predisposed Sharkie is to support the government at this stage?
Especially for a cobbled together, last minute plan. Was their any indication in the byelection of her support for renewable energy, as opposed to Xenophon who appeared to be a disciple of Professor Uhlmann.
Just what we need, private businesses deciding on public interest – no conflicts of interest anywhere in sight!
Business Council calls for greater private role in public services
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/business-council-calls-for-greater-private-role-in-public-services-20180814-p4zxgj.html
Members of the Fairfax CPG – Coalition Press Gallery – can wrong their hands and lament about “politicians” all they like. But they never accept their own role in the Climate/Energy Trainwreck…
In the words above you have, encapsulated, the whole, rotten, partisan shitfight that’s been going on for over a decade.
In a nutshell: when Labor’s Climate policies are wrecked and ruined by sheer Coalition bloody-mindedness it’s “politics”.
When Turnbull’s “instant noodles” NEG falls apart under its own weight and absurdity, and even the number of competing chopsticks stuck in it can’t keep it upright, we still have to accept it – disgusting, unpalatable, undigestible mess that it is – for themuch vaunted good of the nation.
Minchin, Abbott, Turnbull and the rest of the malignant Monkey Podders going back years can interfere with, veto, splice, dice, sabotage and ultimately wreck every attempt to get out Global Warming response actually working, to the point that almost any hope we had of actually saving the fucking planet (and our own miserable species) from a coming near or actual extinction-level event is lost. And only then is it not part of the great political circus they have created and nurtured to generate clickbait. Suddenly we’re supposed to forget all the shit from the past and be bi-partisan, forget old animosities and vote for something that a dog would think twice about eating off the floor.
Hartcher and Crowe (with Murphy an honorary member) are seen as Labor critics, but they are not. They’re Turnbull boosters. Whoever is against their golden boy gets it in the neck from them, daily. Whether it’s Abbott or Bill Shorten, or anyone in-between, they will cop it if Little Malky and his latest brain fart is in twubble. Whatever the question, the answer is invariably “What Malcolm wants.”
Now, THERE’S yer problem!
BK
The Mike Seccombe piece in the Saturday paper you linked provides several more perspectives on the $444m GBRF scandal. Essential reading..
https://outline.com/AeMJSk
Morning all and thanks BK, but I cannot get the Mike Seccombe link to work.
‘“There will be another Newspoll in September, Turnbull will have lost 39 in a row, everyone in the party room will say ‘shit, with six months to an election, there is no chance of a recovery,’ and there will be a spill motion” against Turnbull’s leadership, the MP says.’
This just sounds like spitballing. Anyone could put that scenario out there.
If I’m paying credence to something which comes from an MP, it has to include language along these lines: “Other MPs have told me..” “A group of us have agreed that if…” “Some of the backbenchers I’ve spoken to are despairing…”
Otherwise it’s just speculation.
Confessions
Outline gets a bit fractious at times. I just tried the link from sprocket_ and it took me a few goes to get it up.
BB
It wasn’t Abbott who hounded Gillard about the ‘carbon tax’. It was the media. Abbott came late to that party.
And at the time, the media were both in the best position to know the exact nature and context of Gillard’s original statement and had the responsibility of explaining to the country the difference between the carbon price and a carbon tax.
No care and no responsibility.
Here is the link to the article by Mike Seccombe.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/08/18/accounting-trick-frames-reef-grant/15345144006727
As sprocket says, it is essential reading.
Peter van Onselen assesses motivations of the MurderMalcolm crew…
“Abbott (and perhaps Joyce) can’t meet his career goal of a comeback if Turnbull wins the next election. A re-elected Turnbull government would leave Abbott and Joyce as political road kill — a pair of wreckers who failed in the easiest of tasks, bringing down their colleague and leader.
Abbott in his 60s would have to watch Turnbull do a victory lap before retiring on his own terms, the first prime minister to do so since Robert Menzies. Even the thought of that must be enough to send Abbott around the bend.
Joyce, a decade or so younger than Abbott, has a greater chance of a comeback even if the Coalition wins the next election following policy scripts he disapproves of. But it could be a long road, with obstacles along the way.
The easier path for both men to enjoy political redemption is in defeat, a catastrophic one for Turnbull and his team, who have shunned both men.
Defeated governments always need to go through a period of soul searching to assess what went wrong and why. The fact the level of internal instability will be a core ingredient in that discussion if Bill Shorten becomes prime minister won’t dissuade Abbott or Joyce from welcoming defeat because there is more opportunity for a comeback in that scenario than there is in victory.
A defeated Coalition, just for starters, would mean the end of Turnbull. While I doubt the party would turn to Abbott immediately, in time it could. In the meantime I can’t see a new leader — in opposition and lacking natural authority — not promoting Abbott on to the frontbench. From there he can use his newly regained insider status to reingratiate himself with senior colleagues.
Joyce certainly would come back on to the frontbench for the Nationals and, depending on who survived among his colleagues, he might be able to mount an immediate leadership challenge.
It’s not hard to see why both former leaders might welcome a crushing defeat. In the meantime, if they can present themselves as the face of their respective party’s base, they can leverage that support to rebuild with what’s left of the parliamentary party.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/how-tony-abbott-could-lead-again/news-story/36644b148e919b7455da6525ea39be4d
BK:
I wondered whether the Saturday Paper had found a way to block Outline like the Oz has.
Confessions
I saw all the Saturday Paper contributions OK today. As I said, Outline does get fractious and one must reopen it and try again.
BK,
The Katherine Murphy article link is the incorrect one. 🙂
A defeated Coalition led by Abbott and Barnaby? Labor would be in government for a decade.
Is there something a big, umm, defamatory about saying that a politician is hell-bent on ensuring that his own party loses the next election?
Where is Frydenberg in this entire NEG mess? He suddenly seems to have become a bit player subject to Turnbull’s desperate attempts to save his own skin.
Birmingham is in a similar position over school funding. Neither would be happy with Turnbull.
Fess/BK
Murdoch apparatchiks appear to have (mostly) blocked outline.com from working.
Another technique which mostly works is to Twitter search for @australian or @dailytelegraph and click on the linked articles. This tends to work better if the link has been retweeted by a paid up subscriber or journo.
Always a challenge to read the inner workings without contributing a cent to the demented plutocrat on principle.
Here’s what Rebekha Sharkie has to say on the NEG development.
“Friday night policy backflip. They said the NEG would provide stability but all we’ve seen is instability. Energy policy requires careful stewardship not capitulation to the backbench before it reaches the Parliament.”
sprocket – github with mozilla works a charm. It’s fantastic.
From what I can see Liberal leadership speculation seems to be largely a Murdoch thing. The ABC doesn’t seem to be mentioning it.
Retreat on Paris emissions target may not save Malcolm Turnbull
• Simon Benson
National Affairs Editor
@simonbenson
Joe Kelly
Political Reporter
@joekellyoz
Malcolm Turnbull has dumped the government’s plans to legislate the 26 per cent Paris emissions-¬reduction target, in a dramatic ¬capitulation to rebel MPs and ministers threatening to cross the floor and vote it down.
Senior government sources confirmed that Mr Turnbull’s praetorian guard had come to the conclusion on Thursday night that threats to his leadership were real and that a bold move was needed to head off the growing likelihood of a revolt.
This followed a group of ¬marginal-seat MPs from Victoria, Queensland and NSW approaching Home Affairs Minister and leading conservative Peter Dutton over the course of the past week to express their concerns that the government was heading towards a disastrous defeat.
Read Next
The Weekend Australian has confirmed with several of those MPs that Mr Dutton would have their support should Mr Turnbull’s leadership become terminal.
Under the backdown, the 2015 climate change commitment would be retained but mandated through a ministerial order and only after advice from the competition regulator that it would not ¬increase power prices.
The plan to carve out the target from the federal legislation follows a rearguard action from a group of 10 rebel Coalition MPs who have withheld their support for the ¬national energy guarantee and threatened to cross the floor in a direct challenge to Mr Turnbull’s authority as leader.
Despite the last-minute policy shift, some conservative MPs were saying last night the policy recalibration would not be enough to win over all of the Coalition holdouts or restore confidence in Mr Turnbull’s leadership, following the poor showing at the Longman by-election last month and the Prime ¬Minister’s 38 consecutive Newspoll defeats.
Former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce last night suggested Mr Turnbull should reconsider his ability to lead the Coalition to ¬victory before the next federal ¬election but denied knowledge of any move.
“I’ve always said openly that if a person gets to a point where they think they can’t win an election then they should consult with their colleagues about what happens next,” Mr Joyce told ABC radio.
Asked when Mr Turnbull should reconsider his position, the former Nationals leader said: -“Before the election.”
The changes to the energy shake-up were swiftly condemned by Tony Abbott, who told The Weekend Australian he was concerned about whether the new plan would allow a future Shorten government to ramp up emissions-reduction targets more easily.
“It does look like policy on the run and, given that both the Prime Minister and the Minister for ¬Energy emerged on Monday to declare overwhelming support for their policy, it seems a little strange that the policy has now been turned on its head,” the former prime minister said.
“I have grave concerns about anything which would enable a ¬future Labor government to ramp up what are already very onerous emissions-reduction targets, particularly if it is still intended that there be massive fines for any breach of emissions-reduction ¬requirements.”
Victorian Liberal MP Kevin Andrews — one of the leading rebels on emissions-reduction targets — declared Mr Turnbull’s plan for regulation “was just as bad as legislation”.
“We have signed Paris and will meet the target. We need neither legislation nor regulation,” Mr ¬Andrews said.
The Weekend Australian has also confirmed the Prime Minister will pursue an aggressive campaign to force down energy bills that will include arming the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission with divestiture powers to strip the big three energy ¬companies of generation assets if their early closure leads to higher prices.
It is understood that Mr Turnbull will legislate to give the ¬government the broad powers to act against the big three power companies, or “gentailers”, in a campaign that has the hallmarks of the government’s crackdown on the banks.
Mr Turnbull and Scott Morrison will use the weekend to finalise the package of measures to present to Coalition MPs as early as Monday.
Late yesterday, Mr Turnbull decided that the 26 per cent Paris target would not survive a vote in the parliament, with at least six Coalition MPs confirming they would cross the floor.
A decision was made to ensure the 2015 climate change commitment would instead be mandated through ministerial regulation or executive order and only following advice from the ACCC that would need to be tabled in the parliament.
If a minister wanted to change the target they would have to ¬inform the energy regulator and the ACCC so they could provide a ¬report detailing the impact on ¬prices. That report would need to be ¬released publicly before a decision was made.
This means the model being adopted by Mr Turnbull would force a Labor government to seek the same assurance from the ACCC that its 45 per cent ¬target would not raise power ¬prices.
It is understood that the decision to remove the Paris target from legislation was made on Thursday night in a late-night meeting between Mr Turnbull, Scott Morrison and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg.
It will mean the only legislation required by the government to ¬fulfil the commonwealth component of the NEG would be minor and include carbon credits and offsets.
The Weekend Australian can also reveal that the legislation that was being proposed — but being kept secret from Coalition MPs — would have legislated an emissions-intensity target over time.
Mr Abbott said the decision not to share the legislation was “shambolic” and “no way to run a government” as well as a “serious breach of due process”.
What does it say that someone as incompetent as Barnaby, not to mention the whole business with Vicki the staffer-not-a-staffer who became Vicki the partner-not-a-partner, can be considered leadership material…
Just reading the comments under the PVO article in the SmearStralian, they are a cracker! Here is one of the more articulate…
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Avatar for Cecil
Cecil5 HOURS AGO
If the Libs, under a new leader, starting Monday afternoon, proclaimed and sold the following policies, they’d lose very few votes and pull back almost all now headed to AC and ON.
Policies/stances:
1. The CO2/climate thing is BS, and an LNP Govt will pursue reliable low-cost electricity by way of fossil fuels, and will initiate all necessary moves to establish a full-scale nuclear industry. Lots of great jobs.
2. Tax regimes and union influence will be remedied -to promote entrepreneurial investment, innovation and international competitiveness. This will include new big-digital high-end manufacturing and smart new transport infrastructure. Lots of great jobs.
3. All Greenist influence that results in water shortages and fire threats will be eliminated.
4. Bad immigration/refugee inflow will be halted immediately.
5. New independent colleges -constituted to be non-/anti-Leftist, in humanities-law and energy will be set up, taking funding from exisiting university faculty budgets.
6. A new news-opinion-discussion media entity, constituted to be non/anti-Leftist, will be set up, using 50% of current ABC and SBS budgets.
It can be done. It must be done.
Let the Left scream and yell.
The Left is killing Western Civ. We must save ourselves from Destructive Leftness.”
It’s a very crowded of contenders for the right wing ratbag vote in Queensland. Anning, Katter, Hanson, Christensen and Palmer (who still seems to have plenty of cash to splash):
As usual, another thorough and concise summary of the latest voting trends by William.
I understand he is a very busy person, but may I ask a favour of him?
The by- elections are well and truly over, so could the item in the right-hand column about them be replaced by the next important election issue coming up, namely the Victorian State Election? I realize that polling about it is intermittent at this time, but that will change as the election comes closer. Is that possible?
I believe the outcome will have not only State implications but also leadership implications Federally, particularly for Turnbull, but also Shorten.
Err no, James Thomson.
Its the Bank’s conduct which has smashed trust in retail super trustees.
It’s hard to see Malcolm’s latest boondoggle lasting long with the loonies. They know not to trust him and reckon a future labor govt would get around it pretty easily (appoint a compliant ACCC head)? And if it didn’t work, Labor would still have the option of legislation.
Moir was on the mark there. Another ‘oldie’.
From the Oz article quoted above, it is clear that Turnbull’s revised NEG bill is designed to prevent a future Labor government from raising emissions targets.
sprocket_ @ #7 Saturday, August 18th, 2018 – 7:41 am
Thanks for the insight. What a ‘manly’ newspaper. Such a narrow demographic.
“BK,
The Katherine Murphy article link is the incorrect one”
Does it matter?
This is ominous …..
Judge for ex-Trump aide Paul Manafort case says he is facing threats and will not release jurors’ information
The judge in the trial of U.S. President Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman Paul Manafort said on Friday that he would not release the names and addresses of jurors sought by media outlets because he was worried about their “peace and safety.”
Judge T.S. Ellis, speaking in court while jurors deliberated for a second day, said he had received threats over the case and is being protected by U.S. marshals. “I had no idea this case would excite these emotions. … I don’t feel right if I release their names,” he said.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/judge-ex-trump-aide-paul-manafort-case-says-facing-threats-will-not-release-jurors-information/
I posted a comment the other night querying why it was a conscience vote. Chief Minister Andrew Barr agrees.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/act/barr-calls-for-binding-vote-on-territory-rights-20180817-p4zy6e.html
Peter Van Onselen as quoted by AB11 @8:37 “This followed a group of ¬marginal-seat MPs from Victoria, Queensland and NSW approaching Home Affairs Minister and leading conservative Peter Dutton over the course of the past week to express their concerns that the government was heading towards a disastrous defeat”
I find that puzzling. All recent polls suggest a narrow Labor victory, not a “disasterous defeat” for the Coalition, xcept to the extent that they regard being out of office as a “disaster”. With all the money and the big media organisations on their side, the election is eminently winnable for the Coalition. A leadership change to someone as unpopular as Dutton looks suicidal. Am I missing something, other than the Right’s devotion to coal?
Sohar @ #43 Saturday, August 18th, 2018 – 8:54 am
sneer 🙂
‘Help is on the way’: Former US attorney explains how Trump is secretly communicating to Manafort
President Donald Trump has said that his former campaign manager is being “treated unfairly by our government” on Friday.
“If you’re Paul Manafort and you hear about that and we all know Paul Manafort’s heard about that, it’s difficult to read that as anything other than a message to Manafort, hold on, don’t cut a deal with the government while the jury is out, which defendants sometimes do. A defendant who sees how bad the evidence is, then goes to the prosecutors and says, ‘OK, I’m ready to plead guilty now.’ The president is in essence saying, ‘Don’t do that. Help is on the way, I can pardon you in the future.’”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/help-way-former-us-attorney-explains-trump-secretly-communicating-manafort/
Citizen – It seems to me that it would be almost impossible to properly frame the question to the ACCC in legislation. What is meant by “lower prices”. Over what period?
Turnbull Abbott Joyce are not the future. Turnbull will bolt at the first opportunity, Abbott is now an old political lag without any practical life skills and will hang around like a rotting carcass for an eternity. Joyce, devoid of the slightest hint of honest self-reflection, will be dragged off to another place, never having reason to confront integrity and hopefully do no more harm.
The LNP have no future while the last vestiges of inbalance and bias emulating from the Howard years are expunged.
This weekend, the LNP Turnbull government is fighting among itself over legislation of little significance without a trace of moving beyond self-interest and completely without portivity.