Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor

A lengthy period of opinion poll stability may finally have come to an end, if the latest monthly result from Ipsos is any guide.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, Ipsos provides the most striking federal poll result in a very, very long time: a 55-45 blowout to Labor, out from 51-49 in Ipsos’s previous monthly result. Powering this is a six point slump in the Coalition primary vote to 33%, from which Labor yields only one point to reach 35%, with the Greens up one to 13% (a high Greens vote being a routine Ipsos peculiarity). This is reflected in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, which find him down nine on approval to 46% and up ten on disapproval to 48%. Bill Shorten is respectively up three to 41% and down two to 52%, and his deficit on two-party preferred has narrowed from 57-30 to 48-36. Ipsos’s respondent-allocated two-party result is also 55-45, after being 50-50 last time.

A question on company tax finds 47% in favour of a reduction from 30% to 25% over ten years, with 44% opposed. However, this notably fails to engage with the issue presently faced, which is whether tax cuts should be advanced to businesses with more than $50 million turnover, a proposition that reliably gets a less favourable response. On energy policy, 54% back the National Energy Guarantee, with 22% opposed. Fifty-six per cent think the government is doing too little to address climate change, compared with only 13% for too much and 28% for about right. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1200.

UPDATE: The Australian has further results from last week’s Newspoll on company tax, showing only 36% support big business company tax cuts being passed through the Senate, with 51% wanting them blocked. There is also a repeat of an unfortunately framed question from early July that privileges support for tax cuts by asking when they should be introduced, rather than if. This finds 34% favouring the “as soon as possible” option, down four from last time; 27% favouring “in stages over ten years”, which is unchanged; and 31% holding out for the third-listed option of “not at all”, which is up four points.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,012 comments on “Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. Wayne says:
    Wednesday, August 22, 2018 at 2:15 am
    Our great LNP will win the next election with PM Dutton as he is very well like in our great country

    ROFL

    Wayne, you’ve excelled yourself this time.

  2. I don’t know why people say that Tones is poison. I’ve been reading the commenters in the Australian. They are with him to a man / and lady. For them, he is the prince across the sea; the king in exile; Bonny Prince Tony. Bring him back and all will be right with the world. You know it makes sense.

  3. Dutton will lose his own seat now for sure, he will be labeled a “wrecker” by some liberal voters within his own electorate. It damages him in ways Labor or Getup just couldn’t.
    Its inevitable Tony makes a comeback of sorts, even if its just so he can resign on his own terms, many probably think he can be an effective opposition leader again.
    If it happens it means they have learnt nothing and they are doomed for a decade. If they can’t learn from this what sort of crisis would prompt them to rethink their ways.

  4. “Dutton is Voldemort. He’s got the same face and personality”

    Nah. Voldemort is a much more striking, charismatic and menacing character.

    Potato head is a jumped up Queensland jack – one that was hated by his fellow jacks at the time because he was an office informer.

  5. Was Kelly O’Dwyer as Assistant Treasurer responsible for regulatory agencies not prosecuting offenders? Either she knew & approved of inaction, or had no administrative oversight, as an ineffective Minister. Which is it? Such Ministers should resign or be sacked although she has been moved sideways…

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