Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor

A lengthy period of opinion poll stability may finally have come to an end, if the latest monthly result from Ipsos is any guide.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, Ipsos provides the most striking federal poll result in a very, very long time: a 55-45 blowout to Labor, out from 51-49 in Ipsos’s previous monthly result. Powering this is a six point slump in the Coalition primary vote to 33%, from which Labor yields only one point to reach 35%, with the Greens up one to 13% (a high Greens vote being a routine Ipsos peculiarity). This is reflected in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, which find him down nine on approval to 46% and up ten on disapproval to 48%. Bill Shorten is respectively up three to 41% and down two to 52%, and his deficit on two-party preferred has narrowed from 57-30 to 48-36. Ipsos’s respondent-allocated two-party result is also 55-45, after being 50-50 last time.

A question on company tax finds 47% in favour of a reduction from 30% to 25% over ten years, with 44% opposed. However, this notably fails to engage with the issue presently faced, which is whether tax cuts should be advanced to businesses with more than $50 million turnover, a proposition that reliably gets a less favourable response. On energy policy, 54% back the National Energy Guarantee, with 22% opposed. Fifty-six per cent think the government is doing too little to address climate change, compared with only 13% for too much and 28% for about right. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1200.

UPDATE: The Australian has further results from last week’s Newspoll on company tax, showing only 36% support big business company tax cuts being passed through the Senate, with 51% wanting them blocked. There is also a repeat of an unfortunately framed question from early July that privileges support for tax cuts by asking when they should be introduced, rather than if. This finds 34% favouring the “as soon as possible” option, down four from last time; 27% favouring “in stages over ten years”, which is unchanged; and 31% holding out for the third-listed option of “not at all”, which is up four points.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,012 comments on “Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor”

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  3. I notice the age of leaders is only a concern when it comes to Nancy Pelosi. Trump and McConnell are fine, “Bernie 2020”, maybe “Biden for President” etc. but Nancy is “too old”

  5. Retirement age is not 67.

    Age to qualify for age pension is currently 65 and a half and will rise to 67 over the next few years.

    The Tories want to make it 70.

    People can retire when they feel like it and have sufficient assets and income to support themselves.

  6. Jennifer Bechwati tweets

    Breaking News: the Department of Agriculture has cancelled the live export licence of Emanuel Exports – it follows controversy around Live sheep export – after 2400 sheep died aboard one of the company’s ship en route to the Middle East last August.
    #7News

  7. Yeah Ross – I took an “early retirement” package at age 73. Would have kept working longer except management was getting uglier and uglier (in general, not specifically to me).

  9. Rossmcg:

    Hear hear! I get tired of this nonsense that infers people can’t continue working into their 70s and beyond if they so choose.

  10. Jack

    Good for you. It is great that older people who are willing and able can work if they wish.

    I was able but the ugly managers took away my will so I was happy to stop working way short of your mark.

  11. All the talk of Dutto to be PM, with the unemployable ex PM Abbott lurking about, wallowing in the adrenaline that only catalytic revenge and destruction can produce, gleeing in the harm he has caused his own party.
    Nobody should be delusional. Abbott has been prowling the corridors for ages, plotting, undermining and readying for this day.
    Dutton is being used by the wrecker. Look at the pathetic line up of RWNJs, now sitting at the back of the chamber.
    Does everybody now forget the felonious way Abbott pounced into the leadership ahead of the bumptious Hockey. Dutton is no less bumptious.
    For some time courtesy of the various polls, the Libs have known that the choice between gracious defeat at the next election or a backs to the wall rearguard action were their only choices.
    They have chosen the rearguard ploy, doomed before it began. The only one laughing is the awkwardly gaited, unemployable wannabe, with absolutely no prospects, a tarnished careered and nothing to lose.
    Abbott has done the Liberals and Australian politics no favours. Abbott needs to be purged from Federal parliament, and the remnant leftovers from the Howard years following behind, together with their self-interest and self-righteous ways.
    A reset and Shorten is now the only credible alternative. The good ones are often a surprise. Australia certainly needs some inspiration and hope. Let it begin.

  16. Ok so yes, I definitely agree Abbott is way more electable than Dutton.

    I still think however, that if the Libs had to change leaders away from MT that JBishop would be their best bet.

  18. I saw an article saying Australian politics has all been self indulgent party sh!t since Gillard knifed Rudd. It’s hard to disagree. And it was written by Kate Ellis’ husband. This is just pathetic.

  19. Dio:

    I have less tolerance for the same-same stuff than I did 5 years ago. Labor has been stable, whereas the Liberals, Nationals and the Greens have had their own leadership instabilities.

  20. Dutton will be our sixth PM in ten years counting Rudd II. That’s a sad indictment of our political system and the arseholes in it. And then they wonder why we think they are all a bunch of backstabbing spineless dickheads with no integrity.

  22. Late Riser says:
    Tuesday, August 21, 2018 at 11:47 pm
    guytaur @ #2915 Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 – 9:50 pm

    Briefly

    Actually in the old days I am talking about before the 80’s Labor in fact did rule alone.
    I think the term is “governed alone”.

    Indeed….and this was the term I used…

  23. Diogenes @ #2967 Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 – 9:46 pm

    Dutton will be our sixth PM in ten years counting Rudd II. That’s a sad indictment of our political system and the arseholes in it. And then they wonder why we think they are all a bunch of backstabbing spineless dickheads with no integrity.

    I see it more as an indicator of the unqualified people who get to be PM.

  24. Last thought for the night – perhaps some mischievous Ministers who voted for Dutton, in their planned “drip, drip, drip…” resignations, said to Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, “We’re all going to resign one after the other, and we’ll do it by sending a damning letter to the PM so that we burn our bridges behind us, that’s the way to do it properly”.

    Then after letting her do it that way, they “offer” their resignations, but then (nearly) all come back, cap in hand, saying that yes they will stay if Malcolm won’t accept their pseudo-resignations.

  25. Confessions says:
    Tuesday, August 21, 2018 at 11:40 pm
    Ok so yes, I definitely agree Abbott is way more electable than Dutton.

    I still think however, that if the Libs had to change leaders away from MT that JBishop would be their best bet.

    Abbott was by far the worst PM this country has had. He had an absolutely deplorable effect on the place. The relief felt when Turnbull deposed him was really almost universal. He has had a totally detrimental effect on public life in Australia….in every dimension. He should be thrown out of politics.

  27. Confessions @ #2977 Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 – 8:59 pm

    Diogenes @ #2967 Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 – 9:46 pm

    Dutton will be our sixth PM in ten years counting Rudd II. That’s a sad indictment of our political system and the arseholes in it. And then they wonder why we think they are all a bunch of backstabbing spineless dickheads with no integrity.

    I see it more as an indicator of the unqualified people who get to be PM.

    What’s the qualification for the job?

  28. briefly

    I think Rudd’s last great contribution to Australia was getting Labor close enough in 2013 so that by early 2015 the Liberals were truly concerned that they could be tossed out after one term, leading eventually to the removal of Abbott who I also regard as the most toxic person to ever be PM. And that includes Billy Hughes who was by all accounts a fairly vengeful person.

  32. Fess – I think he has got more chance than Dutton, which is why I see him challenging this Thursday and maybe even winning the Liberal leadership. But I don’t believe he will win another Federal election.

  33. Rocket Rocket….I agree.

    All in all, the story of Australian politics so far this century is one of disapppointment and frustration; of significant under-achievement in lots of ways. We have to do better…and we can start by purging the RW crazies who dream of the 19th century.

  34. I think there would be many in the Liberal Party that would simply refuse to continue if Abbott were reinstated. He is the source of their present travails. He is treachery itself.

  35. Good night all – I look forward to the next federal election whenever it is.
    The night before the election I will dream of this:

    And tomorrow’s gonna be a brighter day
    There’s gonna be some changes
    Tomorrow’s gonna be a brighter day
    This time you can believe me
    No more cryin’ in your lonely room
    And no more empty nights
    ‘Cause tomorrow mornin’ everything will turn out right

  36. Confessions says:
    Wednesday, August 22, 2018 at 12:08 am
    briefly:

    Abbott was a poor PM, but that doesn’t mean he’s not less (or more) electable than a prospective PM Dutton!

    Were Abbott to seize the leadership again I think there would be open mutiny among Liberals….and while voters might not elect Dutton, at least they will give him the once over. Abbott is already a known quantity…and would be rotten meat to most voters. I think a Lib backbencher was quoted this week as describing Abbott as ‘electoral hemlock’. The Liberals may as well take cyanide together as re-elect Abbott.

  41. Today has been 24 hours of free publicity for Bill Shorten.

    The Liberals have blown themselves up over his electoral prospects, and have admitted as such in public, before the entire nation.

    Given a comparison between the relative standings of Turnbull versus Shorten between 2015 and today, the only question anyone should be asking Bill is, “Where do I sign?”

    Shorten has played an absolute blinder.

  43. Roger Miller says:
    Wednesday, August 22, 2018 at 12:36 am

    J Bish may be their best bet. Right up to the point where she has to do some prime ministering.

    Has JBishop shown any signs of being capable of doing any ministering? If she isn’t capable of any ministering, how on earth can she capable of prime ministering? [Rhetorical]

  44. Cameron @ #2982 Wednesday, August 22nd, 2018 – 12:36 am

    If the Nazis were so obviously anti-socialist and committed to private property, and if socialists were among the earliest victims of the Nazi party, why are some claiming Hitler was a socialist?

    Because some people were and still are bad at using words?

    Like if Hitler had chosen to call his party The Christian Philanthropists, would that make him a good example of either? No, it would not. It would just mean that Hitler was bad at using words. Because he was.

  45. Oh boy have I missed al the fun. Still, cafe with wifi, the local pils in the sun in Vienna is a lovely setting to catch up :). About 30pages of posts I think.

  46. Perhaps the broad church is too broad.
    When your elected membership goes extreme, you will lose a big slice of your members at the opposite end of the scale.
    The Abbott style, “I’m bloody lousy but at least you won’t have Labor getting into power”, is not going to work this time.
    The legacy of the last 5 years will be seen as a negative, spitefull and callous L/NP Govt that left the Nation in debt and divided. They achieved what they set out to do. A long spell on the opposition benches will be appropriate.

  48. I reckon the CPG will now despise Bill Shorten now as his luck is that the LNP self-imploded in front of him for him to walk into the role of PM come 2018/19 Jesus I Hate the Canberra CPG…

  49. Vienna is a beautiful city. On my very first morning there I was walking down the main drag and came across someone I knew, also from Perth.

    It you make it to Salzburg the Salzburg card gives you access to the local brewery to sample some of their beers.

    It’s just a shame the country has moved to the right.

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