Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor

A lengthy period of opinion poll stability may finally have come to an end, if the latest monthly result from Ipsos is any guide.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, Ipsos provides the most striking federal poll result in a very, very long time: a 55-45 blowout to Labor, out from 51-49 in Ipsos’s previous monthly result. Powering this is a six point slump in the Coalition primary vote to 33%, from which Labor yields only one point to reach 35%, with the Greens up one to 13% (a high Greens vote being a routine Ipsos peculiarity). This is reflected in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, which find him down nine on approval to 46% and up ten on disapproval to 48%. Bill Shorten is respectively up three to 41% and down two to 52%, and his deficit on two-party preferred has narrowed from 57-30 to 48-36. Ipsos’s respondent-allocated two-party result is also 55-45, after being 50-50 last time.

A question on company tax finds 47% in favour of a reduction from 30% to 25% over ten years, with 44% opposed. However, this notably fails to engage with the issue presently faced, which is whether tax cuts should be advanced to businesses with more than $50 million turnover, a proposition that reliably gets a less favourable response. On energy policy, 54% back the National Energy Guarantee, with 22% opposed. Fifty-six per cent think the government is doing too little to address climate change, compared with only 13% for too much and 28% for about right. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1200.

UPDATE: The Australian has further results from last week’s Newspoll on company tax, showing only 36% support big business company tax cuts being passed through the Senate, with 51% wanting them blocked. There is also a repeat of an unfortunately framed question from early July that privileges support for tax cuts by asking when they should be introduced, rather than if. This finds 34% favouring the “as soon as possible” option, down four from last time; 27% favouring “in stages over ten years”, which is unchanged; and 31% holding out for the third-listed option of “not at all”, which is up four points.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,012 comments on “Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. If SA had a Shooters and Fishers Party she would probably never have become a Liberal.

    Her opinion piece about the wholesale killing of Great White Sharks was one of the more ignorant things I’ve ever read.
    No effing idea about the role of Apex predators in nature.
    Just really dim.
    She can’t have seen one in the wild, people’s attitudes change when they do.

  3. Primrose Riordan
    ‏Verified account @primroseriordan
    4m4 minutes ago

    New: Craig Laundy denies he’ll quit under Dutton: “I will not be causing a byelection that would tear apart the party because unlike those attempting to tear apart the party as we speak I genuinely care for it and the future of the party” #auspol

  4. one week of Murder Malcolm and look what happens…

    It should be repeated that Gillard had 2 years of regular shocking polling (up to 40-60) before there was a spill.

    The Coalition get one outlier at 45-55 and we were 7 votes shy of Dutton PM.

    The second coming of Rudd was fueled by almost constant disastrous polls with a kerosene opposition leader fanned by a lazy CPG while in a minority government. The loyalty by the ALP shown to Gillard for so long was actually heartening. What is happening today is symptomatic of a fracture in the Coalition so ideological and so deep the CPG are now unable to skim coat it.

  7. So now what happens is voters begin to notice instability and turbulence, uncertainty, to recoil from this and go looking for stability, for coherence and for order.

    The Liberals will find that today’s events will have Rudd-like effects. For many voters, who pay almost no attention to politics, the spill will come as an abrupt event. They will be mystified and confused by it; and they will be dismayed. They will reject it, instinctively.

    It will be fascinating to see how this plays out in the polls….which cannot come too soon!!

  8. SK

    Labor is made of much sterner stuff than the LNP.

    At least thats the way I see it from outside. At least the LNP instability has put to bed its minority government that causes instability.

    What causes it is when MP’s are free to speak their mind and the camouflage of a united front is allowed to become a swamp of division.

    The only problem Labor had was that it had not had practice at being a minority and why the rules were loose before Richardson tightened them to suit the Murdoch narrative about what unity looks like.

  9. Guytaur ”
    Maybe. Its worked well for NZ though.

    Same for most of Europe.”

    I agree. MMP is a great system. I think that it should be adopted here. Single member electorates are a poor way to reflect the will of the voters, although in Australia its worst effects are mitigated by preferential voting and the Senate voting system.

  10. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, August 21, 2018 at 9:43 pm
    SK

    Labor is made of much sterner stuff than the LNP.

    …

    The only problem Labor had was that it had not had practice at being a minority and why the rules were loose before Richardson tightened them to suit the Murdoch narrative about what unity looks like.

    This is nonsense. Forever and a day, Labor’s maxim was to govern alone or not at all. This has been restated…for very very good reasons.

  11. If Dutton replaces Turnbull as Leader of the Liberal Party (or in Turnbull`s case Follower of the Liberal Party), with all the opposition to Dutton, Turnbull would probably be justified in advising the Governor-General that nobody has the numbers to replace him and a new election has to be called immediately (with Turnbull as caretaker PM).

  12. Steve

    Yes I can’t offer anything other than it would be better to happen sooner. Along with Truth in media laws and breaking up monolithic media empires.

    The only thing Paul Keating did wrong was allow more not less concentration of the media. If they had remained one city papers like the Washington Post change would have happened to support investigative journalism.

    Now I hope new models like Crikey and the Guardian can fuel the money needed in the private sector for that.

  17. Tanya Plibersek
    ‏Verified account @tanya_plibersek
    1h1 hour ago

    In contrast to the Liberals, @AustralianLabor stands ready to govern for all Australians, with the best policies and the best people.

  18. SK – You are totally right. The Libs have brainwashed people with Kill Bill. People think I’m weird when I tell them he is going to be a great Australian Prime Minister (as I often do).

  20. A11

    Labor going full bore on the National Integrity Commission is going to be very very popular with voters.

    The media has been telling those voters all politicians are corrupt. They released a survey to that effect on voters opinions today.

  21. How did this gem from a few weeks ago slip through? You gotta laugh at the contortions.

    Well, well, well. Ken Starr, the former independent counsel who investigated Bill Clinton and drew fire for his wide-ranging “witch hunt,” appeared on television Friday morning to express his concern about Bob Mueller’s probe into possible Trump campaign ties with the Russian government. His gripe? It might be going beyond its scope. He wasn’t sure but there is the possibility.

    During an appearance on CNN New Day, Starr was questioned on whether he thought Mueller was going beyond the mandate of the investigation.

    “The mandate that Bob Mueller received has some broad language, including ‘related-to’ type of language, which tends to open the door, but there are some checks and balances,” Starr continued to say, “We don’t want investigators and prosecutors out on a fishing expedition.”

    https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/kenn-starr-on-mueller-probe-we-dont-want-prosecutors-on-a-fishing-expedition/

  22. briefly

    Yes we here tend to forget how unengaged most people are with politics for 99% of the time. This will indeed come as a total shock to many people and it will just be “disunity is death” with memories of overthrows past.

  23. Guytaur – totally agree. It’s an electoral winner that the Libs won’t touch with a barge pole! Even if they wanted to, the Nats would go into full-scale revolt.

  25. Les Stonehouse tweets

    A lady from #Duttons seat of #dickson is getting heaps of phone calls over the past 2 weeks.. One night 3 wow.. Glad it’s not me #auspol

  27. Ides

    Its why its important to note the cheerleading from the Murdoch press. Labor has to have in their minds from day 1 of government they have to deal with Murdoch’s malign influence.

    Do that and the policy reforms become much easier.

  30. Zoidlord says:

    @lenoretaylor
    25s26 seconds ago

    The $225,000 campaign to dislodge Peter Dutton from Dickson

    How much of the money came from a bank in the Cayman Islands ? 🙂

  31. guytaur @ #2921 Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 – 7:57 pm

    In case its not been posted

    Samantha Maiden tweets

    Seven, eight, lay them straight.

    Cabinet ministers Michael Keenan and Steve Ciobo offer resignations now. Taking the tally to Peter Dutton 8 ministers declining to serve under PM: including Angus Taylor, Concetta Fiervanti Wells, Zed Seselja, Michael Sukkar, James McGrath. https://twitter.com/primroseriordan/status/1031840909619417088

    Fake news. So many people taken in by this. Why?

  34. Labor is made of much sterner stuff than the LNP.

    The Coalition under Howard were solid. It isnt so much that the ALP were made of sterner stuff, more that they had (and have) a more stable and unifying policy framework. The only thing that unifies the Coalition these days is keeping the ALP out of government.
    A11
    Shorten doesnt inspire me at all. But I am 100% sure he is nothing to be feared or hated. He and the ALP seem organised and well prepared for government.

  36. From the article Lenore Taylor posted on the Guardian

    The Dutton camp is continuing to foment the Coalition’s leadership crisis, with ministers who supported the former home affairs minister in Tuesday’s snap leadership ballot tendering their resignations as a prelude to a second challenge.

    Frontbenchers, including Michael Sukkar, Angus Taylor, Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, Zed Seselja and Queenslander James McGrath – who is a former member of the prime minister’s inner circle – offered to quit their posts on Tuesday night after outing themselves as Dutton supporters, the first of a sequence of expected departures.

    The trade minister, Steve Ciobo, was also expected to offer his resignation on Tuesday evening, but later tweeted the party room had made a resolution about the leadership, and “we must unite to defeat Labor”.

  41. Complete insanity is happening at present. This makes RGR seem second rate in terms of a party tearing itself apart from within. There can be only one winner from all this and it won’t be a Liberal.

  49. [McGowan lobbying Liberals against a change]

    She should stay out of it or climb into bed with them and take out a Liberal membership. I’m sure T would be happy to sign her up.

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