Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor

A lengthy period of opinion poll stability may finally have come to an end, if the latest monthly result from Ipsos is any guide.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, Ipsos provides the most striking federal poll result in a very, very long time: a 55-45 blowout to Labor, out from 51-49 in Ipsos’s previous monthly result. Powering this is a six point slump in the Coalition primary vote to 33%, from which Labor yields only one point to reach 35%, with the Greens up one to 13% (a high Greens vote being a routine Ipsos peculiarity). This is reflected in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, which find him down nine on approval to 46% and up ten on disapproval to 48%. Bill Shorten is respectively up three to 41% and down two to 52%, and his deficit on two-party preferred has narrowed from 57-30 to 48-36. Ipsos’s respondent-allocated two-party result is also 55-45, after being 50-50 last time.

A question on company tax finds 47% in favour of a reduction from 30% to 25% over ten years, with 44% opposed. However, this notably fails to engage with the issue presently faced, which is whether tax cuts should be advanced to businesses with more than $50 million turnover, a proposition that reliably gets a less favourable response. On energy policy, 54% back the National Energy Guarantee, with 22% opposed. Fifty-six per cent think the government is doing too little to address climate change, compared with only 13% for too much and 28% for about right. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1200.

UPDATE: The Australian has further results from last week’s Newspoll on company tax, showing only 36% support big business company tax cuts being passed through the Senate, with 51% wanting them blocked. There is also a repeat of an unfortunately framed question from early July that privileges support for tax cuts by asking when they should be introduced, rather than if. This finds 34% favouring the “as soon as possible” option, down four from last time; 27% favouring “in stages over ten years”, which is unchanged; and 31% holding out for the third-listed option of “not at all”, which is up four points.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,012 comments on “Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Bahaahahahahaahah’

    Peter Broelman
    ‏ @Broelman
    10h10 hours ago

    So now there’s an onion, beetroot and a spud on the backbench while a lemon runs the party #auspol #libspill

  2. For what it is worth, which is probably not a lot, given how quickly this is all moving, at this stage any talk about another challenge is being talked about in terms of weeks, not days.

    Which means, at this stage, a second tilt in September. The thinking is that gives Peter Dutton and his peeps time to get stuff in order over the non sitting weeks, and come back ready to fight, and fight properly, when parliament resumes on September 10.

    But who the hell actually knows. They could walk in here tomorrow and decide to pull the trigger. Or not.

    This, from the Guardian, suggests Dutton is short of the numbers. The uncertainty will persist.

  3. @rhwombat
    Steppin’ Razor a reference to what the Rastafarians call ‘Molly Millions’ in Neuromancer.
    Has anyone proven Bishop doesn’t have surgically implanted retractable razors underneath her fingernails?

  4. Looking at those pics from the Coalitions back bench reminded me of “The Planet of the Apes” .
    Especially Barnaby doing his bit for the theory of evolution

  5. I am not sure what Abbott sees for himself. PM? Probably not. LOTO? That suits the wrecker in him.

    Maybe he thinks he can become PM again at some point in the future and then be the first PM since Menzies to retire on his own terms.

  6. rossmcg – The central ideology of the Liberal Party used to be to hate labor. Now it has been refined to “Kill Bill”. That is a wonderful ideology because it makes everything permissible. Any lunacy, any contradiction, any lie. I understand that Dutton is going to make “Kill Bill” the official state ideology and require that it be taught in schools.

  7. “For arguments sake if Dutton had defeated Turnbull he would be PM automatically…..or does he have to get the confidence of the house first before going to the GG to be sworn in.”

    In this situation, where the PM is defeated for the leadership of their party, the standard procedure is for the PM to make an appointment with the GG asap, normally the same day, tender his/her resignation and recommend that the GG call on the new party leader to form a Government. The GG does as advised and it’s all sorted within 24 hours if the situation in Parliament is cut and dried (e.g Rudd -> Gillard 2010). If the situation is more complex, the GG may require the new leader to test his/her leadership on the floor of the House.

  8. Thanks Dan – but chinda and I aren’t joint winners yet. Maladept has to lead the Libs to an election and lose before we can claim the million-dollar house in the Gold Coast hinterland (or am I confusing you with the Boystown raffle?). And he may yet be tossed – anything could happen in the next week or month.

  9. Mr Hewson is detailing the post mortem. Saying Turnbull will try and drag it out but Dutton’s forces are moving quickly

    He thinks this Thursday

    He is encouraging others to stand against Dutton

  10. Boerwar @ #2805 Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 – 6:35 pm

    I can’t wait for the UBI. Nice little earner for everyone. No questions asked… especially about how to pay for it.
    As for the Peoples Bank, that should be excellent as well. I do hope they have printing presses out the back.

    There you go again bringing the UBI into our debate over the required capital for a People’s Bank. Classic right wing manouevre.

    Are you going to publish details of who’s arse you plucked the $2 trillion figure “needed” to set up a “People’s Bank”, or are you going to continue obfuscating as you have been?

    I guess that last paragraph will end up being a rhetorical question since we all know the answer to it already.

  11. KJ:

    I happened to see that segment of Catalyst. It showed the very large plant processing spuds.
    Quite impressive to my 15 year old eyes.


    Thanks KJ.

    But wait till you hit 18. It is waaaaa..aaaay better!

  12. Nice sentiments Dan.

    Also today we should spare a thought for Bludgers, who for dietary reasons, allergies or personal preference, cannot eat popcorn.

  13. ‘don says:
    Tuesday, August 21, 2018 at 8:52 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, August 21, 2018 at 8:39 pm
    Catalyst is on Australian food production again. In Mitolo’s spud plant… Freaky stuff. 150 thousand tons a year.


    I honestly have no idea what that means.

    Can anyone translate, or is it not worth the trouble, as I suspect?’

    (1) It is the largest potato packing plant in the southern hemisphere.
    (2) 150,000 tons of spuds a year is a huge amount of spuds.
    (3) the quality sorting mechanisms are amazing.

  14. Sonar (@ 8:42pm) – If Turnbull is rolled by the liberal party room, he is still Prime Minister until the Governor General accepts his resignation and advice on who to replace him with, or (if he was to withhold such advice) there was a motion passed in the parliament expressing no confidence in Turnbull, but confidence in the annointed replacement.

    Turnbull could derail any of takeover attempt by walking out of the party room having lost the liberal party leadership, and going straight to the GG and advising him to suspend parliament and call a general election instead.

  15. briefly @ #2809 Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 – 6:38 pm

    The Gs are similar. They define themselves by their enmity for Labor, by their strategic campaigning against Labor.

    That would seem to apply only to the Greens leadership. All the Greens voters I know are disappointed by, but don’t hate Labor. This is from a fairly small sample size though. Perhaps you know more ordinary Greens voting people than I do.

  16. This is a joke (so has today been really)
    An oldie but a goodie (adapted for today’s events)

    Dutton speaking at Press Conference –

    “The Government, led by Malcolm Turnbull’s moderates in the Liberal Party, and in collusion with Bill Shorten and the Labor Party, has taken Australia to the edge of a huge precipice, and if we go over into that dark chasm, the country will never recover.

    I, with my loyal followers, will take us one step ahead!”

  17. Paul Syvret
    ‏Verified account @PSyvret
    5m5 minutes ago

    As a columnist I tired very quickly of the ELECTION NOW !!! rants from the RWNJs during the Gillard years. Now I suspect such a course of action is Turnbull’s only dignified option. If this government was a dog you’d take the poor thing to the vet for the green dream. #Libspill2

  18. BW:
    (1) It is the largest potato packing plant in the southern hemisphere.
    (2) 150,000 tons of spuds a year is a huge amount of spuds.
    (3) the quality sorting mechanisms are amazing.


    Thanks BW.

  19. I find it astounding that after nearly 5 years of Coalition government, 5 years of shambles, there is still a high level of antipathy for the ALP being shown today (of all days) by so many punters. People I know. People in ABC radio call back. And, I am sure, on shock jock radio.

    And the Libs know it. They helped cultivated it, along with the shock jocks and tabloids to the point the antipathy borders on hate. And with little pushback from other MSM – in fact they happily propagate it. So on days like today the Libs roll out the lines of dire warnings of a Shorten Government like covert messages to their cult, insinuating that the ALP is the devil in disguise. Modern Australian politics has become like tribal voodoo – all sorcery, spirits and possession.

  20. Maybe if we had the New Zealand voting system we would not have this dogs breakfast of leadership changes.

    Both Majors would have to learn to work with minor parties on a regular basis.

    Just a thought.

  21. SK

    I am not surprised. The media tells people both sides are the same. Its not mistake the Greens say that.

    They do it because until the media changes its narrative its all they have got. The media just rubbishes any policy they come up with otherwise.

    Look at the way people are jumping on the concept of the People’s bank and ignoring what the Commonwealth Bank was when it was owned by the government.

    Edit: Sorry completely ignoring what New Zealand is doing in the process

  22. Boris @ #2837 Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 – 6:52 pm

    Dutton has been a solid performer in the public eye, no controversies, no stuff ups

    Except for all the times the courts have ordered him to bring people on Nauru and Manus to Australia for treatment. Going back a bit further there was the little matter of the $7 per visit “doctor tax” as well.

    Apart from that, it’s been all good though. 😉

  23. Don 😵

    But wait till you hit 18. It is waaaaa..aaaay better!

    I think I will stick with 15 – the s**t hit the fan when I got to 18 the first time.

    The secret code adds 64.

  24. don

    Mitolo is also a real Coalition type of company. In other words, bastards.
    “Australia’s biggest potato grower is leading a national push to pay employees like Kay Rault who work in packing and storage sheds located off farm sites the same rates as lower-paid farm workers.

    In Sydney to give evidence to the Fair Work Commission hearing of Mitolo Group’s application to have the Horticulture Award extended to store workers who handle fresh produce, Ms Rault who grades potatoes and onions at Mitolo’s South Australian facility said it was hard to make ends meet on her wages.

    “If this change gets through, things could get a lot harder for people like me and my workmates,” she said.

    “Why should big companies be able to change the law just because it suits them?”

  25. Lucy Gichuhi
    Lucy Gichuhi
    Current Mood. #auspol #politics
    8:08 PM · Aug 21, 2018

    Brilliant image posted by Lucy, if someone could post the actual image please.. She is not happy!

  26. p
    Thanks, interesting info.
    Lesson No 1: never ever work as a labourer on farms.
    Lesson No 2: never ever forget Lesson No 1.

  27. “Maybe if we had the New Zealand voting system we would not have this dogs breakfast of leadership changes.”

    If we had the MMP voting system as in NZ and Germany, or Proportional Representation, the “Liberals” would quickly split into a hard right party and a centre-right party. The Nationals and other right wing minorities like Bernardi, right wing Christians and One Nation might mostly join the former Liberal right, with the rest forming a crazy-right party with the Patriots.

    Labor would stay pretty much the same, their former left wing having spun off into the Greens.

    Then it all comes down to what sort of Coalitions would form. Labor – Green, Liberal – Hard Right, Liberal (centre right)-Labor?

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