Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, Ipsos provides the most striking federal poll result in a very, very long time: a 55-45 blowout to Labor, out from 51-49 in Ipsos’s previous monthly result. Powering this is a six point slump in the Coalition primary vote to 33%, from which Labor yields only one point to reach 35%, with the Greens up one to 13% (a high Greens vote being a routine Ipsos peculiarity). This is reflected in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, which find him down nine on approval to 46% and up ten on disapproval to 48%. Bill Shorten is respectively up three to 41% and down two to 52%, and his deficit on two-party preferred has narrowed from 57-30 to 48-36. Ipsos’s respondent-allocated two-party result is also 55-45, after being 50-50 last time.
A question on company tax finds 47% in favour of a reduction from 30% to 25% over ten years, with 44% opposed. However, this notably fails to engage with the issue presently faced, which is whether tax cuts should be advanced to businesses with more than $50 million turnover, a proposition that reliably gets a less favourable response. On energy policy, 54% back the National Energy Guarantee, with 22% opposed. Fifty-six per cent think the government is doing too little to address climate change, compared with only 13% for too much and 28% for about right. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1200.
UPDATE: The Australian has further results from last week’s Newspoll on company tax, showing only 36% support big business company tax cuts being passed through the Senate, with 51% wanting them blocked. There is also a repeat of an unfortunately framed question from early July that privileges support for tax cuts by asking when they should be introduced, rather than if. This finds 34% favouring the “as soon as possible” option, down four from last time; 27% favouring “in stages over ten years”, which is unchanged; and 31% holding out for the third-listed option of “not at all”, which is up four points.
If Chester is prepared to go to the cross-benches doesn’t that suggest he would, at least, abstain from a no-confidence vote?
Boerwar
If the Yanks decided to wreck the Boerwar economy it would be looking pretty crook no matter how it was run. Same with Venezuela.
It is not unprecedented that Nationals have vetoed the Liberal leader. McMahon was kept out and Gorton got the job because McEwan did like him (for rumours of being gay).
I am just sad that an obviously good bloke like Darren Chester has to fight in the cause of a scumbag like Turnbull.
A constant conga line of coalition bullshit artists on the ABC is the one downside of today’s events.
I have met plenty of people like Boerwar. They do not support Labor out of the things that the party represent, they support them out of negative resentment. They speak in the wrong accent, live in the wrong suburb, went to the wrong school and earn the wrong income. If these things were different he would be a true blue Tory!
I mean to say McEwan didn’t like McMahon because of the rumours of Homosexuality.
That Rowe toon is vicious. Mal’s spine ripped out ouch!
Bishop a bleeding joke, the deck awash with Liberal blood & she talks about power prices & Albo.
Tonight’s shenaigans shows there is no unity in the Governing Party. Unless a rump is prepared to coalesce with Labor as an interim, an election from here is the only recourse.
Rational Leftist @ #2705 Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 – 4:38 pm
Yes, I was pleased to see her name listed.
I might finally be represented by a Labor Member. 🙂
Fool Gilbert….
Of the ministerial resignations PM Turnbull has only accepted Connie Fierravanti-Wells resignation thus far (other than Dutton) because she didn’t even see him, tendered via letter #auspol
From the Guardian..
We are at the stage where frontbenchers staffers are having to check if their bosses have resigned or not, because they don’t know. Like literally, don’t know.
Mesma has always been a lightweight, imagine her as PM…..yuk
Julie B going through the talking points – yawn.
Sceptic – Yup, the captain has been badly wounded and carried below and Jules is busy sorting her wardrobe. Pathetic.
Rational Leftist, Barney
Is Nicole Flint quite conservative? Why did she vote for Dutton?
Still not sure Boothby is in play.
This has resigned/not resigned fiasco unfolding this evening is the cherry on top of a dreadful Liberal cake.
There is a congaline outside the PM’s office with resignation letters, and then pleas to keep the fat salaries and ministerial perks.
What more humiliation can they have?
If anyone thinks Chester and two or three other Nationals are going to leave the party and sit on the cross bench if Dutton is elected leader of the liberals and PM leading a coalition government then I have a bridge for sale.
Cheers.
sprocket_ @ #2712 Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 – 5:43 pm
Just Dutton and Fierravanti-Wells resignations alone immeasurably improve the front bench!
Laura Tingle claims that Trumble is the only politician that has tried to quell race divisions in Australia FFS!!!!
I’d like some of what she’s smoking.
What is the bet on the next news poll? I will take 56%.
Bishop was sent out to do her best. She bailed furiously but the sense that the barky was doomed was palpable.
Keenan’s office confirms he has not offered his resignation.
Still no tweets from PvO.
@Frednk…….53-47 ALP 2PP…….Shorten ahead in PPM.
‘doyley says:
Tuesday, August 21, 2018 at 7:47 pm
If anyone thinks Chester and two or three other Nationals are going to leave the party and sit on the cross bench if Dutton is elected leader of the liberals and PM leading a coalition government then I have a bridge for sale.
Cheers.’
Yep. It just another incident in the chaos that has engulfed the Coalition. Many of the incidents do not actually mean anything. They just are.
Peter van Onselen
Verified account
@vanOnselenP
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Two crossbenchers have confirmed to me they won’t guarantee supply if MBT is rolled. Two Nats are considering moving to the crossbench because of the chaos. Three Liberal marginal seat holders either won’t run at election or will resign immediately if MBT rolled. Early election!
Keenan is on a weasel unity ticket with The Lyin’ Hunt
I reckon we’ll get another ReachTEL within a day or two
Was there an Essential today?
Come on Boer… give us the insider view of what is happening in Tory Land?
Wilkie and Bandt voted for the no confidence motion today. So the other two who would not gaurantee supply are Sharkie and McGowan.
Seeing all the chaos – I really hope Mal decides to go to the GG in the (erroneous) hope that’ll he’ll be returned.
ALP govt sooner rather than later?
So that would be the Melbourne African gangs then?
Laura Tingle claims that Trumble is the only politician that has tried to quell race divisions in Australia FFS!!!!
C@tmomma @ #2727 Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 – 5:55 pm
LOL. Murphy’s Law dictated he’d tweet as soon as I pressed SUBMIT.
Yes PvO – this is the only way to solve this bullshit.
Sceptic @ #2708 Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 – 7:41 pm
Julie Bishop will forever be a faithful servant of money and power. 🙂
Oh, and #Albogaveaspeech
Malcy might think that when the electorate confronts the full horror of losing him and electing the union boss it will draw back from the precipice. He’s pretty mad.
Has Turnbull repeated his threat to resign if rolled?
nath 717pm
Reminds of the Malthouse to Carlton nuts
I have heard some Adelaide Crows supporters say the same about Gary Ayres!
Ides of March.not logged in @ #2732 Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 – 7:57 pm
What about Katter? Was he there today?
Ch 7 news has occasionally had a ReachTel on Friday nights, polling done Thursday nights.
Katter is probably uncontactable.
I bet the GBRF is breathing a sigh of relieve to have the blow torch off them for a bit.
@Ides of March.not logged in says:
Tuesday, August 21, 2018 at 8:01 pm
…..”Katter is probably uncontactable.”…..
I’ve heard people say that about him after trying to have a conversation with him….!
The Australian says Craig Laundy and Julie Bishop threatened to resign from parliament if Turnbull was rolled and trigger a general election.
adrian @ #2677 Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 – 7:28 pm
Rowe thinks Dutton is ‘armless?
And why the black hole in Craig Kelly’s back?
mikehilliard says:
Ah, you have spotted Lucien’s cunning plan behind all this the leadershit 🙂