Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor

A lengthy period of opinion poll stability may finally have come to an end, if the latest monthly result from Ipsos is any guide.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, Ipsos provides the most striking federal poll result in a very, very long time: a 55-45 blowout to Labor, out from 51-49 in Ipsos’s previous monthly result. Powering this is a six point slump in the Coalition primary vote to 33%, from which Labor yields only one point to reach 35%, with the Greens up one to 13% (a high Greens vote being a routine Ipsos peculiarity). This is reflected in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, which find him down nine on approval to 46% and up ten on disapproval to 48%. Bill Shorten is respectively up three to 41% and down two to 52%, and his deficit on two-party preferred has narrowed from 57-30 to 48-36. Ipsos’s respondent-allocated two-party result is also 55-45, after being 50-50 last time.

A question on company tax finds 47% in favour of a reduction from 30% to 25% over ten years, with 44% opposed. However, this notably fails to engage with the issue presently faced, which is whether tax cuts should be advanced to businesses with more than $50 million turnover, a proposition that reliably gets a less favourable response. On energy policy, 54% back the National Energy Guarantee, with 22% opposed. Fifty-six per cent think the government is doing too little to address climate change, compared with only 13% for too much and 28% for about right. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1200.

UPDATE: The Australian has further results from last week’s Newspoll on company tax, showing only 36% support big business company tax cuts being passed through the Senate, with 51% wanting them blocked. There is also a repeat of an unfortunately framed question from early July that privileges support for tax cuts by asking when they should be introduced, rather than if. This finds 34% favouring the “as soon as possible” option, down four from last time; 27% favouring “in stages over ten years”, which is unchanged; and 31% holding out for the third-listed option of “not at all”, which is up four points.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,012 comments on “Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor”

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  3. Corey Bernardi on Bolt says Turnbull’s mission from day one was to ‘destroy the Liberal party from within’. Reminds of the Malthouse to Carlton nuts. ROFL.

  5. Frome the Guardian blog.

    Just to be clear, the only resignation the prime minister has accepted is Peter Dutton.

    The others –

    Angus Taylor, Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, James McGrath and Zed Seslja have been offered -but not yet accepted.

  6. zoomster @ #2650 Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 – 7:16 pm

    Reports that Darren Chester and at least 3 other Nats would sit on the crossbench if Dutton is elected leader.

    Stick a fork in ’em, they’re done.

    No government can survive that sort of stuff.

    And I put the blame squarely at Tony Abbott’s feet. He is a cancer on our polity and our nation.

  7. Probyn has just stated that Darren Chester and two others have stated a threat to sit on the cross benches if Dutton gets up.
    The offered rationale: The Coalition under Dutton is unelectable in southern Australia.

  10. A r – I mean the fate of the staffers is one of things that effects pollie decisions about resigning. Bit like kids in a divorce.

  14. p
    Yes. Subbie wit flickers but is not yet dead.
    Seriously, though, is Turnbull now going to try to do a Humpty Dumpty with the NEG?
    Or start from ground zero?

  17. Guardian:

    So, if Darren Chester and his group are willing to pull the trigger on that threat, then Peter Dutton could win the Liberal party numbers, but not the government – he would not have the numbers in the House.

    Which would mean – immediate election, basically

  18. Don’t know how reliable this one is but someone on twitter just said that Chester and 2 other Nats would sit on the xbenches rather than serve under Dutton

  21. C@tmomma

    And I put the blame squarely at Tony Abbott’s feet.

    wRONg. Tones was just being the Tones he has always been, a wrecker a brawler. It was the MSM who ‘gave him wings’ to fly as high as he did. THEY are they one who own the blame.

  25. There could be an element in Darren Chesters’ move of, with Dutton you get Joyce and that’s something he doesn’t want.

  29. There is a Chinese dish, the “drunken chicken”. By way of comparison, this is the self proclaimed “sozzled spud”.

    After a failed tilt at the PM’s job, Peter Dutton describes himself as a man with a “self-deprecating sense of humour” who “likes a drink”. (Oz headline)

  33. Re the threat from Chester,

    I suppose where the majority of liberals believe the election will be won or lost would be the main question.

    Queensland or Victoria ?

    Cheers.

  34. #libspill resignation list so far:
    Peter Dutton
    Michael Sukkar
    James McGrath
    Concetta Fierravanti-Wells
    Angus Taylor
    Zed Seslja
    Michael Keenan
    Steve Ciobo

  43. Dutton rolls Turnbull

    3 nats sit on the x bench, as does Turnbull.

    Labor, the nats, Turnbull, McGowan and Ludlum refer Dutton to the high court, who take all of 3 seconds to boot him.

    Here’s hoping

  44. Yes, Keenan doesn’t say which Prime Minister has his full support. Maybe he’s like JBishop – any PM has her support so long as she is that PM’s deputy.

  45. Amy says:

    Nope – looks like it was just those two lines.

    So, no confirmation on Michael Keenan’s status -but it doesn’t look like he has resigned.

    Facebook Twitter Google plus
    10.33am
    10:33
    We are also trying to work out if Michael Keenan managed to cut off his statement on his Twitter feed and has actually offered his resignation.

  46. ‘Dan Gulberry says:
    Tuesday, August 21, 2018 at 7:26 pm

    Does anyone else find it amusing that whenever socialists post on socialism, they never mention Venezuela?’

  48. One of Turnbull’s many failures is a lack of ticker.

    He should stop pandering to these loons , accept their resignations and instruct Liberal HQ to disendorse them.

    He won’t.

  49. Well irrespective of whether Keenan is in or out, the resignations thus far have vastly improved the quality of the front bench!!

  50. I’d like to thank the Liberal Party Room for making Boothby competitive now. (I note Nicolle Flint was one of Dutton’s supporters) – I was concerned (other than boosting Senate votes) there was going to be nothing to do here in SA at the next election!

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