Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, Ipsos provides the most striking federal poll result in a very, very long time: a 55-45 blowout to Labor, out from 51-49 in Ipsos’s previous monthly result. Powering this is a six point slump in the Coalition primary vote to 33%, from which Labor yields only one point to reach 35%, with the Greens up one to 13% (a high Greens vote being a routine Ipsos peculiarity). This is reflected in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, which find him down nine on approval to 46% and up ten on disapproval to 48%. Bill Shorten is respectively up three to 41% and down two to 52%, and his deficit on two-party preferred has narrowed from 57-30 to 48-36. Ipsos’s respondent-allocated two-party result is also 55-45, after being 50-50 last time.
A question on company tax finds 47% in favour of a reduction from 30% to 25% over ten years, with 44% opposed. However, this notably fails to engage with the issue presently faced, which is whether tax cuts should be advanced to businesses with more than $50 million turnover, a proposition that reliably gets a less favourable response. On energy policy, 54% back the National Energy Guarantee, with 22% opposed. Fifty-six per cent think the government is doing too little to address climate change, compared with only 13% for too much and 28% for about right. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1200.
UPDATE: The Australian has further results from last week’s Newspoll on company tax, showing only 36% support big business company tax cuts being passed through the Senate, with 51% wanting them blocked. There is also a repeat of an unfortunately framed question from early July that privileges support for tax cuts by asking when they should be introduced, rather than if. This finds 34% favouring the “as soon as possible” option, down four from last time; 27% favouring “in stages over ten years”, which is unchanged; and 31% holding out for the third-listed option of “not at all”, which is up four points.
Fun time at the Lodge!
That ipsos poll, any figures for One Nation? Where did the 6 point LNP loss go?
BK – I was actually thinking of “Junior” Minister Briggs just yesterday. When I heard him blow up over being called a Junior Minister I thought his hubris would be his undoing. And so it was. And having earlier this year been down the south part of the bigger Mayo electorate I couldn’t help think how much better off those people were with their new representative.
They probably had to move tonight’s dinner at The Lodge because of security concerns (ie the danger that the diners posed to the PM).
Rocket
My mail from the south of the electorate and KI is that she is vert well liked and respected.
Political leaders usually get a heads up of the major polls earlier in the day, so Lucien would have known this was coming.
Funnily enough, I just watched Sam Dastyari’s pilot show on Disgrace.
He could have Malcolm on as a guest next week.
Others late riser, which seems to lump one nation into, is at 19%.
PPM gap has closed by 16%, now 48 to 36 to truffles.
Night night mal.
Interesting times ahead.
Chris Uhlman tweets
The chance of a leadership spill is growing. And some Liberal ministers blame the conservative media for stoking the fire. https://bit.ly/2w9Ewa4
If there is a Newspoll Mr Murdoch would have seen it.
Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred (stated preferences): L/NP 45 (-5) ALP 55 (+5)
Bevan Shields tweets
Things are serious:
* Support for the Coalition has collapsed
* Peter Dutton has been in talks all weekend and is leaning towards challenging Malcolm Turnbull
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fairfax-ipsos-poll-voter-support-collapses-as-peter-dutton-leans-towards-challenging-malcolm-turnbull-20180819-p4zye9.html #auspol
#auspol #ipsos
guytaur @ #8 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 9:33 pm
do unto others
RWNJ loon Ross Cameron has some helpful advice for Lucien..
“@TurnbullMalcolm should wrap up Last Supper at the Lodge with the offer to resign, rather than forcing his colleagues to dismiss him.‘
DaretoTread @ #1248 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 8:18 pm
That is simply not true, as stated many times by the writers, and lead actor. In other words, a lie.
https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/richard-roxburgh-any-day-i-dont-hear-the-name-charles-waterstreet-is-good-20171027-gz9efk.html
Thank you Henry. If the ON % is unchanged that would mean that 4% went from LNP to Other. That 4% does not want ALP or Green. It might not be a stretch to think that tonight’s IPSOS result is not firm.
“thought his hubris would be his undoing”
First time I’ve heard it called that
And Michelle Grattan suggests that Lucien should grow a spine..
“As Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull struggles with the National Energy Guarantee, the Liberals are in an existential moment – no less dramatic because in recent history, they’ve made a habit of such moments.
Are they going to allow a toxic combination of revenge politics, anti-climate change ideology, panic over the Longman result, and sheer muddle-headedness kill the chance of giving certainty to energy investment and tear down or mortally wound their prime minister?
One pro-Turnbull backbencher describes it as a “hostage situation”, with a small number “holding the nation to ransom”. By and large, the backbench is happy with the NEG, this backbencher affirms.
Turnbull now should put his authority on the line over his energy policy, which he’s augmented by concessions and extra price measures.”
http://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-its-time-for-turnbull-to-put-his-authority-on-the-line-101790?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbutton
Bevan Shields tweets
‘Mr Dutton has spent the weekend taking soundings among Liberal MPs, leaving close colleagues with the clear view that he believes the government is now in an unwinnable position’
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fairfax-ipsos-poll-voter-support-collapses-as-peter-dutton-leans-towards-challenging-malcolm-turnbull-20180819-p4zye9.html
Division is death.
Abbott has successfully blown up his own Govt.
The public has suffered through Labor treachery and now Liberal treachery.
How can you trust them ?
Thanks Ghost.
My bet is Turnbull won’t last the week…The nutters are on the rampage. and smell blood. Ipsos may well be the knife sharpener…..lol
guytaur @ #11 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 9:36 pm
How to make support for the Coalition collapse more.
The headlines are delicious!
The Age
Verified account @theage
23s24 seconds ago
EXCLUSIVE Peter Dutton is poised to strike after Malcolm Turnbull tanks in horror new poll #auspol
sprocket_ @ #17 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 9:38 pm
She stole my idea!
What now Tony? Peter?
Ask Malcolm.
So, my domestic duties are done, what have I missed?
IPSOS BOOOM!
Fark popcorn, it’s shiraz time!!
Zoidlord @ #24 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 7:41 pm
Please, please, please do it!
And mine!
BBC Newsnight
Verified account @BBCNewsnight
Aug 18
“For the first time since the Second World War we have a domestic, proscribed terrorist group. It’s right-wing, it’s neo-Nazi, it’s proudly white supremacist.”
The Met’s former counter-terrorism chief says Britain hasn’t “woken up” to the extreme right-wing #newsnight
EDIT: was gazumped.
On a non Lucien note..
Both Coles and Sydney Trains had IT failures this weekend. Both outsourced their IT work to the same Indian company HCL. Probably just a coincidence.
Rex Douglas @ #19 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 9:40 pm
Yeah. Yeah. Just ignore the internecine warfare in The Greens as well.
You know who people don’t trust? You, Rex Douglas.
Rex, what’s the mood like at Menzies House?
Both Coles and Sydney Trains had IT failures this weekend. Both outsourced their IT work to the same Indian company HCL. Probably just a coincidence.
Probably just a coincidence when both drop their contracts with them too.
Got a source for that, though? I’ve a list of people who need to see it.
Greens helped the demise of both parties, to help their own agenda.
Rex.
Back from three weeks on the road in the Pilbara where I did my best to avoid the news, political and otherwise.
Oh joy.
The mouth breathers on sky such as Paul Murray and Campbell Newman are both horrified by and salivating over this ipsos poll. It’s quite delicious to watch. Poor old Darren Chester toeing the company line with his still 8 or 9 months to the election gibberish.
It’s going to be on like donkey Kong next week.
Cat
Yes thats a fair comment Greens not immune from party division either. Thats for sure. In fact they should be having some now given their polling numbers.
Welcome back, ross 😀
@NewtonMark@mastodon.social
@NewtonMark
2m2 minutes ago
The last time we had a PM who served an entire term was John Howard, elected 14 years ago in 2004. If Turnbull gets rolled, we might find that the people voting in their first election next time it happens weren’t born last time it happened. #itson
Fark popcorn, it’s shiraz time!!
I’ve got a bottle of 94 Clonakilla Shiraz Pinot Noir Voigner that I’ve never had a big enough celebration to open.
But I might have an occasion coming up…
Jeebus Effing Krystel,
Is this for real?
Turnbull just flatlined.
Guytaur thanks for CM article.
So Dutton didn’t go to the dinner because he had another engagement.
Doubtless he was engaging Liberal MPs and Senators in a little chit chat by phone.
The ego of some people. Peter Dutton actually thinks he is leadership material and will be taken into the nation’s hearts and win the upcoming election!?!
I can’t wait for him to be the 3rd Sitting Prime Minister to be defeated in his own seat at a federal election. That is, if the Coalition are idiotic enough to elect him leader.
guytaur @ #40 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 9:48 pm
…and their awful, Lib-cozying-up-to leader.
C@tmomma
It’s more about revenge, really, eat their own petard.
LU
Probably need to look yourself, a place to start https://www.hcltech.com/geo-presence/australia#key-engagements
guytaur @ #40 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 9:48 pm
guytaur,
I well remember how Adam Bandt was shafted by Ludlam, Waters and Di Natale, after Christine Milne left parliament.