Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor

A lengthy period of opinion poll stability may finally have come to an end, if the latest monthly result from Ipsos is any guide.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, Ipsos provides the most striking federal poll result in a very, very long time: a 55-45 blowout to Labor, out from 51-49 in Ipsos’s previous monthly result. Powering this is a six point slump in the Coalition primary vote to 33%, from which Labor yields only one point to reach 35%, with the Greens up one to 13% (a high Greens vote being a routine Ipsos peculiarity). This is reflected in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, which find him down nine on approval to 46% and up ten on disapproval to 48%. Bill Shorten is respectively up three to 41% and down two to 52%, and his deficit on two-party preferred has narrowed from 57-30 to 48-36. Ipsos’s respondent-allocated two-party result is also 55-45, after being 50-50 last time.

A question on company tax finds 47% in favour of a reduction from 30% to 25% over ten years, with 44% opposed. However, this notably fails to engage with the issue presently faced, which is whether tax cuts should be advanced to businesses with more than $50 million turnover, a proposition that reliably gets a less favourable response. On energy policy, 54% back the National Energy Guarantee, with 22% opposed. Fifty-six per cent think the government is doing too little to address climate change, compared with only 13% for too much and 28% for about right. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1200.

UPDATE: The Australian has further results from last week’s Newspoll on company tax, showing only 36% support big business company tax cuts being passed through the Senate, with 51% wanting them blocked. There is also a repeat of an unfortunately framed question from early July that privileges support for tax cuts by asking when they should be introduced, rather than if. This finds 34% favouring the “as soon as possible” option, down four from last time; 27% favouring “in stages over ten years”, which is unchanged; and 31% holding out for the third-listed option of “not at all”, which is up four points.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,012 comments on “Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor”

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  2. William, In your commentary I beleieve that you have left out a ‘dis’ before the second ‘approval’, and the sentence ‘ Bill Shorten is respectively up three to 41% and down two to 52%, and his deficit on two-party preferred has narrowed from 57-30 to 48-36. ‘ should probably refer to ‘preferred prime minister’.

  6. It seems as though there’s only one dish that would be appropriate for dinner with Malcolm tonight.

    Revenge. Served cold. And it looks like it is on the menu.

  8. The is a fear that a Dutton PMship may instill complacency into the Labor middle ranks and volunteer base. As if goverment will fall into Labor’s lap following.

    It should be a marker for Labor supporters to double down on their efforts and ensure govenrment. It would still be a fight against an enormous media empire, with the Greens on the alternate flank. Both will be doing their best to ensure Labor does not get a majority.

    I would be treating Dutton’s leadership with a quiet respect. I did however crack just one more Tooheys Old stubbie following this poll.

  11. 19% for PHON and other mainly right wing smaller groups. Some of that (35%?) leaks back to ALP.

    Dutton and Bishop counting the numbers.

  12. I’m looking forward to Prime Minister Dutton.

    Once he is defeated at the next election, loosing his seat into the bargain, all of his evils go with him, including torturing refugees I hope.

  13. NEXT LIBERAL LEADER
    Julie Bishop
    $3.50
    Tony Abbott
    $3.50
    Peter Dutton
    $4.00
    Scott Morrison
    $8.00

    Nationals have no say in the Liberal leader/PM.

  14. The mouth breathers on sky such as Paul Murray and Campbell Newman are both horrified by and salivating over this ipsos poll.

    Alan Jones, Raaaaaaaaaaay Hadley and the rest of the 2GB ratbags will be soiling themselves in excitement. The poor dears won’t be able to sleep as they run their lines over in their heads overnight.

    This one is a real detonation.

    Up to this point the loons have been trying to bootstrap a crisis. Talk about it so confidently that people start to believe it. But this huge Ipsos drop makes it real. On top of Longman they have evidence they can tender that Trumble has to go.

    I’m not sure it makes a move this week certain. But it does make certain that the story will roll on and on. They’ll want to make damn certain that if the spill doesn’t come this week then Newspoll needs to have a nice fat drop like Ipsos. So every nocturnal Skynoos loon, every 2GB imbecile, Blot and the rest of the nutjobiverse will all be shoulders to the wheel to talk up the disunity.

    There will be no respite for Trumble now.

  18. Re the Sydney trains kerfuffle, apparently caused by a software “upgrade”. I started saying 8 years or so ago, and I’ll probably have occasion to say it again – the scariest word in the language these days is “upgrade”.

  19. So Abbott has brought down PM Rudd, Gillard, Rudd, Himself and now Turnbull….what a constructive presence he has been in the Australian body politic!

  21. The thing is, the one thing Essential, Newspoll and Ipsos have in common, even before the full impact of the self-inflicted NEG bs was felt, was that Turnbull’s personal #s were starting to slide.

  22. Put me down for Christian Porter to nominate for the leadership. Dutton would only exhasobate the looming electoral catastrophe. Porter is every bit as nutty with the benefit of being presentable.

  23. It will be interesting to see Daniel Andrews polling after the solar panel announcement. If he gets a big boost in the polls as well thats the death knell for the Climate Denialist faction. 🙂

    I can dream

  24. This is too funny. If Malcolm refused to wear clothes between now and the next election he would still get more votes than Malcolm. A by-election in Wentworth coming up? Will the Greens have a chance?

  25. Desert Qlder, Yes. And 4 of the points lost to the LNP went to ‘other’. Only 1 went to the ALP and 1 to the Greens. I can’t think of a reason why these 4 points wouldn’t come back to the LNP in preferences if not even primary votes given enough time to forget these past few weeks.

  29. Numbers finally moving in the right (i.e. Left) direction.

    It’s just one poll but a doozy. The Green vote looks too high, Labor’s too low.

    The Coalition and their cheer squads have been quite despondent in recent weeks, even though polls were saying 51-49, eminently recoverable with a mainstream media biased in your favour. Does this reflect what their internal polling was saying?

  30. Late Riser

    The only real indicators we have of where One Nation preferences will go in Queensland is Longman.

    So thats a good look for Labor and very very bad news for Mr Dutton.

  31. Dr Kevin Bonham comments…

    As ever #Ipsos has the Green vote way too high. Not sure how they expect to be taken seriously when numerous elections have shown this is a real problem and yet it continues happening.

  32. guytaur, agreed. It’s those 4 points I am thinking about, that LNP lost but did not appear under the ALP or Greens columns.

  33. I think the beginning of this was the under-performance on Super Saturday, combine this hardcore element of RWNJ faith… Trumble was in deep shite.

  34. sprocket_ @ #81 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 8:06 pm

    Dr Kevin Bonham comments…

    As ever #Ipsos has the Green vote way too high. Not sure how they expect to be taken seriously when numerous elections have shown this is a real problem and yet it continues happening.

    The Greens always do better in polling than they do in actual elections.

  35. May be a genuine 13% untention of greens this weekend but once the people get into the voting booth they will fall back to 7% apart from inner city fairies at the bottom of the garden voters.

  40. Zeh, sometimes bringing a successful IT project in house is the problem. I was involved in one where we were the outsourced IT. Worked happily with our client for 5 years. Streamlined workflows across the board. After we were let go they introduced new systems, which failed, eventually going back to using email. What used to take 2 hours went back to 2 months.

  44. Paul Osborne AAP
    ‏Verified account @osbornep
    30m30 minutes ago

    @couriermail is reporting Dutton didn’t attend Turnbull dinner. Other engagement scheduled. #auspol Also reporting McCormack no longer has numbers in Nationals party room.

  45. @couriermail is reporting Dutton didn’t attend Turnbull dinner. Other engagement scheduled. #auspol Also reporting McCormack no longer has numbers in Nationals party room.

  47. After this week, there is a two week gap to the next sitting. Will the plotters wait that long? I very much doubt it.

  48. Also reporting McCormack no longer has numbers in Nationals party room.

    Let me guess: Barnaby is the next in line?

    Jeez, step aside children and let the adults come back to the governing ranks. Hopeless.

  50. It’s possible Dutton may prove more cunning and capable politically than people give him credit for, especially as compared with poor old dunderhead Malcolm.

    He has control of formidable security forces and he will run on a slow the rate of immigration.

    The LNP can do that in an underhand manner by cutting immigation programmes while raising temporary work visas.

    2 birds – one stone.

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