Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor

A lengthy period of opinion poll stability may finally have come to an end, if the latest monthly result from Ipsos is any guide.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, Ipsos provides the most striking federal poll result in a very, very long time: a 55-45 blowout to Labor, out from 51-49 in Ipsos’s previous monthly result. Powering this is a six point slump in the Coalition primary vote to 33%, from which Labor yields only one point to reach 35%, with the Greens up one to 13% (a high Greens vote being a routine Ipsos peculiarity). This is reflected in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, which find him down nine on approval to 46% and up ten on disapproval to 48%. Bill Shorten is respectively up three to 41% and down two to 52%, and his deficit on two-party preferred has narrowed from 57-30 to 48-36. Ipsos’s respondent-allocated two-party result is also 55-45, after being 50-50 last time.

A question on company tax finds 47% in favour of a reduction from 30% to 25% over ten years, with 44% opposed. However, this notably fails to engage with the issue presently faced, which is whether tax cuts should be advanced to businesses with more than $50 million turnover, a proposition that reliably gets a less favourable response. On energy policy, 54% back the National Energy Guarantee, with 22% opposed. Fifty-six per cent think the government is doing too little to address climate change, compared with only 13% for too much and 28% for about right. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1200.

UPDATE: The Australian has further results from last week’s Newspoll on company tax, showing only 36% support big business company tax cuts being passed through the Senate, with 51% wanting them blocked. There is also a repeat of an unfortunately framed question from early July that privileges support for tax cuts by asking when they should be introduced, rather than if. This finds 34% favouring the “as soon as possible” option, down four from last time; 27% favouring “in stages over ten years”, which is unchanged; and 31% holding out for the third-listed option of “not at all”, which is up four points.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,012 comments on “Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 61
1 2 3 4 … 61

  1. In isolation the IPSOS Poll or Longman would be disastrous- It is the combo that is nuclear.
    It is hard to argue that polls with a 33 percent primary don’t matter, when a by-election in a winnable seat gave you a 29 percent primary just a few weeks ago.

    (and yes all credit to Shorten…but Abbott was best supporting wrecker for the ALP)

  5. “@couriermail is reporting Dutton didn’t attend Turnbull dinner. Other engagement scheduled. #auspol Also reporting McCormack no longer has numbers in Nationals party room.”

    Dutton’s other engagement was probably a lot of phone work to MPs.

  6. Paul Osborne AAP
    ‏Verified account @osbornep
    Replying to @russellmahoney

    Telegraph is reporting Dutton and Turnbull have been in regular text contact all weekend
    10:10 PM – 19 Aug 2018

  7. Jesus freaking christ!

    One cabinet minister said MPs were increasing their support for Mr Turnbull due to concerns the elevation of Mr Dutton to the leadership would be followed by the restoration of Mr Abbott to the cabinet, either in the defence or home affairs portfolio.

  8. That Dutton isn’t at the dinner is crucial.

    However he can’t challenge yet, first he has to give a speech.

    I think the primaries lost by the LNP are parked and are up for grabbing by the ALP.
    Especially once campaigning begins.

  9. Dutton may well be a formidable opponent, with a manufactured StrongMan image to save us from invasion by Boats, terrorists and high electricity bills.

    But by Jingo, he will have a mountain to climb after the Turnbull fiasco.

  10. guytaur 1002pm I can dream

    Yes, dream: because the Arctic could be ice-free all year, bushfires could rage throughout every Southern and Northern hemisphere winter, Greenland’s ice sheets could all but disappear, the Gulf States could become uninhabitable, Tropical Cyclones could morph into storms battering Brisbane and Northern NSW, Stone Fruit crops could become ungrowable in Australia (not enough cold nights).

    The general public could move on, and continue to increasingly embrace renewable energy and electric transportation.

    And those people would not change.

  12. @Late Riser
    Generally the bigger issue is getting people in who don’t intimately understand the business requirements & flow, or the system they’re implementing.
    I solo my company’s ERP implementation & development which requires heavy customisation to meet our requirements in something of a ‘non-standard’ workflow.

  13. Apparently from a Cabinet Minister “Rather than fix the problem of the NEG he has exacerbated it. The NEG is now dead.”

  14. I think the loons are just playing with Lucien now…

    Liberal backbencher @CraigKellyMP tells @PatsKarvelas he would be “disappointed” if the Government dumped its policy to cut company tax before the next election. Watch the full interview on #NationalWrap tonight from 9pm EST. #auspol

  15. So when is the next Newspoll?? If there is movement there in line with Ipsos………..

    Bottom line here, politically, is that the Libs and Nats have comprehensively failed to learn the lessons of the RGR wars. At least the ALP, even going through all that crap, had some decent policy on the table throughout. Libs haven’t even been able to do that and are in some kind of self inflicted double spin death spiral.

    I’d love to see Malcolm just throw it in and resign, leaving the other utter incompetents in the Libs to try and sort it out.

  16. Alessandra’s pickings

    ‏ @AlessPickings
    43m43 minutes ago
    Replying to @MikeCarlton01

    There is a disease at the heart of the LNP, and its name is not. Despite his inadequacies, he represents the symptom, a grotesque, malignant symptom, but a symptom, nonetheless, not the disease. This cancer is systemic. The LNP stands for two things now: cowardice and winning.
    1 reply 4 retweets 6 likes

    Hear hear!

  17. Ah, now I get it.

    The fall in support for the Coalition was matched by a boost for minor parties including Pauline Hanson’s One Nation rather than a gain for Labor, which saw its primary vote increase marginally from 34 to 35 per cent.

    Those who used to be staunch in their support of the Liberals have not been able to stomach the prospect of transferring their support to Labor so have decided to jump ship to PHON.

  18. equal or not? 1014pm

    I know from others’ direct experience that they have already massively slowed down the processes to make their numbers look good. Spouses waiting much, much longer to get the appropriate visa compared to a few years ago.

  19. C@tmomma @ #107 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 8:17 pm

    Jesus freaking christ!

    One cabinet minister said MPs were increasing their support for Mr Turnbull due to concerns the elevation of Mr Dutton to the leadership would be followed by the restoration of Mr Abbott to the cabinet, either in the defence or home affairs portfolio.

    The loons are going to be too busy tearing each other apart to be worried about campaigning for the next election.

  21. Andrew Probyn is in denial…

    “So Fairfax reporting 55-45 2PP to Labor when ALP primary is just 35%. Just 35%. To put in perspective, when Gillard got 38% primary, she had to negotiate victory over 17 days after winning just 72 seats. 2PP looks ludicrous. Explains inclusion of defensive pollster comments IMHO.”

  22. “Jeez, step aside children and let the adults come back to the governing ranks. Hopeless.”

    Those adults who were supposedly going to take charge 5 years ago never did arrive.

  23. A lot of people laughed when Abbott became Leader of the Opposition back in December 09. Myself included.

    I for one, won’t be making that mistake again.

  24. cat 1015pm – I would love Natalie Joyce to run as an Independent. I put this to a few people I know in the electorate and they thought it could be a goer.

    “Vote 1 for Natalie – a local you can trust!”

  28. Turnbull should have called an election in July when he had the chance. Too late now. Heezagonna. Dutton will take the job….and Abbott will be back. Maybe they will make him Minister for the Environment, Immigration and Citizenship. Abetz will become Minister for Labour and Droughts.

  32. Poll Bludger Federal Election Sweep

    Update per request of IoM earlier today.

    Name Prediction
    Briefly 4/08/2018
    Taz 11/08/2018
    Tom 11/08/2018
    j341983 18/08/2018
    C@tmomma 25/08/2018
    Grimace 1/09/2018
    Confessions 1/09/2018
    Ophuph Hucksake 8/9/2018
    WarrenPeace 29/9/2018
    ag0044 15/9/2018
    Rossmcg 20/10/2018
    Dan Gulberry 27/10/2018
    Caf 23/2/2019
    Steve777 2/3/2019
    Mundo 2/3/2019
    Jeffemu 16/3/2019
    Hugoaugogo 4/05/2019
    Tristo 18/5/2019
    Jack Aranda 18/5/2019
    Ante Meridian 25/05/2019
    John Reidy 25/05/2019
    Asha Leu 25/5/2019
    BK 1/6/2019

    If you wish to join email your prediction to sjapplin@hotmail.com and your email will be deleted after your prediction is recorded. I’ll try to keep track of any predictions posted in the thread if you’d prefer not to email me, without a guarantee it’ll be included.

    All forms of cheating and capitalising on insider knowledge are encouraged. The prize is gloating rights.

  34. Probyn doesn’t understand the kind of electoral world we’re in now. Labor needed to get close to 40 to win nationally, hence JUST falling over the line with 38%. But Labor just fell short two years ago at under 35%…

  35. Andrew Probyn looks like a bit tired and emotional tonight…

    Seriously, there is something really bit potty here. 55-45? Pig’s arse.
    Pollster: “The poll is robust and reliable … statistically reliable to plus or minus 2.9 per cent, at the 95 per cent confidence level.”

    Phil Coorey says: Others are 19 and greens 12, labor gets 20 of that, why not?

    Probyn: I love you Phil but that poll has hairs on it.

  37. I asked Dr Bonham about by election results and if any sensible comparisons could be made.

    @guytaur If things had been 55-45 to ALP at the time of the by-elections there would have been much larger swings to ALP. This is capturing stuff that’s happened later, + may be overstating it.

  38. @andrewprobyn
    Seriously, there is something really bit potty here. 55-45? Pig’s arse.
    Pollster: “The poll is robust and reliable … statistically reliable to plus or minus 2.9 per cent, at the 95 per cent confidence level.”

    @PhillipCoorey
    14m14 minutes ago
    Replying to @andrewprobyn
    Others are 19 and greens 12, labor gets 20 of that, why not?

  39. I think the PotatoNAZI will be too aggressive for many voters. He will appeal to some but not the majority, in an election campaign it will come out, like a Mark Latham handshake for example. Not the best choice in my opinion, he is better suited to being a headkicker and merchant of fear. They have such poor options. Moriscum would be my guess.

  40. @grimace – I’m updating mine to 6 October

    … 22 September would have to be called and the writs issued tomorrow and 29 Sept is the AFL Grand Final.

  43. Here’s a scenario for Malcolm to consider;

    The Libs roll him tomorrow night.
    Mal loses & goes to back benches where he resigns from the party & votes with the opposition in a no confidence motion which sees the govt change hands on the floor of the house.

    It might be the noblest thing to do

  45. Zeh @ #112 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 10:21 pm

    @Late Riser
    Generally the bigger issue is getting people in who don’t intimately understand the business requirements & flow, or the system they’re implementing.
    I solo my company’s ERP implementation & development which requires heavy customisation to meet our requirements in something of a ‘non-standard’ workflow.

    Summarises my experience well. Intimate understanding and small team, over longer time works well. (And support from the top.)

Comments Page 3 of 61
1 2 3 4 … 61

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *