Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor

A lengthy period of opinion poll stability may finally have come to an end, if the latest monthly result from Ipsos is any guide.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, Ipsos provides the most striking federal poll result in a very, very long time: a 55-45 blowout to Labor, out from 51-49 in Ipsos’s previous monthly result. Powering this is a six point slump in the Coalition primary vote to 33%, from which Labor yields only one point to reach 35%, with the Greens up one to 13% (a high Greens vote being a routine Ipsos peculiarity). This is reflected in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, which find him down nine on approval to 46% and up ten on disapproval to 48%. Bill Shorten is respectively up three to 41% and down two to 52%, and his deficit on two-party preferred has narrowed from 57-30 to 48-36. Ipsos’s respondent-allocated two-party result is also 55-45, after being 50-50 last time.

A question on company tax finds 47% in favour of a reduction from 30% to 25% over ten years, with 44% opposed. However, this notably fails to engage with the issue presently faced, which is whether tax cuts should be advanced to businesses with more than $50 million turnover, a proposition that reliably gets a less favourable response. On energy policy, 54% back the National Energy Guarantee, with 22% opposed. Fifty-six per cent think the government is doing too little to address climate change, compared with only 13% for too much and 28% for about right. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1200.

UPDATE: The Australian has further results from last week’s Newspoll on company tax, showing only 36% support big business company tax cuts being passed through the Senate, with 51% wanting them blocked. There is also a repeat of an unfortunately framed question from early July that privileges support for tax cuts by asking when they should be introduced, rather than if. This finds 34% favouring the “as soon as possible” option, down four from last time; 27% favouring “in stages over ten years”, which is unchanged; and 31% holding out for the third-listed option of “not at all”, which is up four points.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,012 comments on “Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Pegasus says:
    Tuesday, August 21, 2018 at 8:30 pm
    “Julie Bishop is examining all her options, if Peter Dutton becomes leader, including quitting the front bench.

    Not parliament.”

    It must be a comfort to Dutton and Turnbull that, regardless of who leads, the Liberals have the tactical support of the Gs at all times in their drive to keep Labor out of office.

  2. C@t

    Arrrgh of course. Yes ,Josh with lantern.

    Just noticed the Minister for Grecian 2000’s ‘triangle’ is a square 🙂

  3. I just heard the now embolden ABC say that the wentworth geldings leadership was terminal.
    It’s an interesting turn of phrase for a news station to declare that.
    I think the writing is on the wall.
    But really the fact i reflect on the most is how much fucking money t-bag has. I wouldn’t have that job with his wealth. why spend your winter years in that kind of environment. If it was reputation and cool factor then surely becoming and outspoken advocate like Bill Gates would be better.

  4. DG
    I can’t wait for the UBI. Nice little earner for everyone. No questions asked… especially about how to pay for it.
    As for the Peoples Bank, that should be excellent as well. I do hope they have printing presses out the back.

  5. Ante Meridian says:
    Tuesday, August 21, 2018 at 8:25 pm
    To anybody thinking Dutton might become the shortest serving PM in Australia’s history, don’t forget the current record is just eight days (held by Frank Forde with an ‘e’).

    Still, Forde managed to have a Canberra suburb named after him. Just imagine living in Mashed Potato Boulevard in the suburb of Dutton!

  6. Briefly. Malcolm was the actor the libs brought in to play the role of PM and keep the small ‘l’ libs onside. He was a total fraud, of course. But I think that explains the strange level of support he had in the PPM. Despite his manifest hopelessness, small ‘l’ libs clung to him because he gave them permission to vote liberal. Without him they would have to accept that their party the home of paleo-conservatives. They could not face that. But now they must

  7. The Liberals define themselves by the hostility to – their fear of – Labor. The Gs are similar. They define themselves by their enmity for Labor, by their strategic campaigning against Labor.

  8. To anybody thinking Dutton might become the shortest serving PM in Australia’s history, don’t forget the current record is just eight days (held by Frank Forde with an ‘e’).

    I said earlier the buyers remorse would kick in by the next morning. If he got up at the start of the next sitting week the party could be ready to toss him by the Thursday 😉

  9. Agree with you BW – Dorney’s Foreign Correspondent was incredibly moving and inspirational.

    The vagaries and peccadilloes of politics diminish, compared to such a brave man as Sean Dorney still doing his job, his love, despite crippling motor neurone disease.

  10. briefly:

    I heard John Hewson on the radio this morning after the leadership ballot basically tipping a truckload of criticism on Dutton for having the arrogance to think that he could lead the party to re-election and the people who voted for him thinking the same. I thought then that they really don’t know what they stand for. When essentially half your partyroom wants to move further to the right and the other half wants to be more centrist, it’s an indication they have to go back to basics and start with what are their values and goals and objectives as a political party.

  11. briefly @ #2794 Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 – 8:31 pm

    The talk of Liberals bailing out if Dutton were to succeed in toppling Turnbull really illustrates that the Liberal Party is profoundly divided on its values and purpose. They cannot govern.

    Yes. I’ve always maintained that you cannot take something called the “Liberal” party and fill it with all the most regressive conservatives you can find. Self-destruction is the inevitable outcome of such a setup.

    “We’re keeping Labor out of power” isn’t an adequate unifying cry when your party is full of people intrinsically predisposed to hating each other just as much as they hate Labor.

  12. Malcolm Turnbull’s time as PM asof now is 2 years, 11 months, 6 days and counting. Will he pass Julia Gillard’s 3 years and 3 days on September 19?

  13. I agree with GG that Dutton is just a stand in for now. He will lead the party into opposition, then some other noddy nobody will emerge to lead them for their first opposition term, before the real Liberal leader emerges.

    Who this is is anyone’s guess. Perhaps PvO is right in predicting this is Abbott’s ultimate plan. Maybe someone else will emerge from the ashes.

  14. For arguments sake if Dutton had defeated Turnbull he would be PM automatically…..or does he have to get the confidence of the house first before going to the GG to be sworn in.

    I ask because what happens in this scenario………there are immediate mass resignations from parliament from the Turnbull side, members either sit on the crossbenches or abstain from voting in the house which would mean not enough numbers for Dutton.

    I know it isn’t going to happen but you never know with this mob….lol

  15. Sonar – if they had an ounce of guts (I know, I know) they would do exactly that. Dutton PM means that the “moderates” have lost their party. They can fight for it or knuckle under.

  16. ANTONBRUCKNER11 says:
    Tuesday, August 21, 2018 at 8:37 pm
    Briefly. Malcolm was the actor the libs brought in to play the role of PM and keep the small ‘l’ libs onside. He was a total fraud, of course. But I think that explains the strange level of support he had in the PPM. Despite his manifest hopelessness, small ‘l’ libs clung to him because he gave them permission to vote liberal. Without him they would have to accept that their party the home of paleo-conservatives. They could not face that. But now they must

    To his credit, Turnbull sacked Abbott and kept him on the backbench; sacked Abetz and Andrews; drove Bernardi out of the party; put an end to the insane anti-Islamic propaganda and allied war-mongering used by Abbott. He has curbed the worst excesses of the Ultras. And of course this is why they ache to bring him down.

    It’s too soon to know if Dutton will succeed. But in any case, this episode shows the conservatives are desperate. They are trying to seize the Liberal Party in the false belief that the country will follow them. They are totally deluded.

  17. Fess – my money is still on Abbott – Dutton has been rolled out and shown to be unacceptable, and now Abbott will present himself as the “Compromise Candidate” !

    sonar – I believe if there were enough resignations the GG could request that a new Liberal leader test whether they have the confidence of the House on the floor of the House.

  18. “Julie Bishop is examining all her options, if Peter Dutton becomes leader, including quitting the front bench.”

    I thought Julie was in line to replace Jen Hawkins at Myer?

  19. I bet there are some Republicans in the US who wish they could do to Trump what the Liberals tried to do to Turnbull today. 🙂

  20. Rocket Rocket:

    Yes, I too can absolutely see Abbott rising Phoenix-like from the Liberal ruins to lead them again.

    What does it say about the party that this is even a possibility?

  21. It’s strange – the “Liberals” accuse Labor of “class warfare” while they themselves seem to define themselves by who and what they they are against. The list is long, including Labor, unions, environmentalists, advocates of multiculturalism, “socialists”, who are pretty much anyone they don’t like, (small) liberals in acedemia and the arts, human rights advocates, the ABC, Getup, the Public Service (other than that heir win political appointees), climate scientists … the list goes on.

  22. For all the Socialists, Communists, trade unionists, and anybody who got sent to concentration camps because they got in the way of the NAZIs I am saying to you Boerwar, stop being so obtuse. Stop trying to say Hitler was a Socialist. He was about as socialist as Ayn Rand.

  23. Still, Forde managed to have a Canberra suburb named after him. Just imagine living in Mashed Potato Boulevard in the suburb of Dutton!

    ____________________

    Wouldn’t that mean that Dutton was dead?

    I have no further comment to make.

  24. Seeing some of the commentary from the political journalists (eg Cassidy on The Project) all taking the Dutton ascendancy very literally. Not a lot of actual analysis of whether Dutton could actually be voted in by his colleagues (a lot of “well history tells us Turnbull is gone, so Dutton it is” kind of talk).

    A joking reference to perhaps Abbott will be back in the job.

    I think meher baba may have been on the money – this vote was just about the libs positioning Turnbull to walk the plank. Dutton isn’t going to get the gig – time and Dutton’s special brand of charisma are not going to swing things in his favour. ScoMo seems a lot more plausible (as much as I can’t stand the sight or sound of him). I guess Abbott is a possibility, but only factoring in complete public disconnection on the part of the Lib party room – maybe they figure they’re effectively in opposition again and they need a fighting opposition leader now…

  25. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, August 21, 2018 at 8:39 pm
    Catalyst is on Australian food production again. In Mitolo’s spud plant… Freaky stuff. 150 thousand tons a year.

    ___________________________

    I honestly have no idea what that means.

    Can anyone translate, or is it not worth the trouble, as I suspect?

  26. Dutton has been a solid performer in the public eye, no controversies, no stuff ups and a large integrated ministry to manage that is responsible for Australia’s security.

    He would come across as a far stringer more decisive leader than Turnbull and could likely been seen as able to achieve a better result.

    Dutton would also be eligible for the old parliamentary super, a time as PM, even a short time would be of benefit plus the bonus of having his portrait on the wall.

  27. “I thought Julie was in line to replace Jen Hawkins at Myer?”

    Perhaps a straight swap. Jen is besties with The Donald after all.

  28. Boris says:
    Tuesday, August 21, 2018 at 8:52 pm
    Dutton has been a solid performer in the public eye, no controversies, no stuff ups and a large integrated ministry to manage that is responsible for Australia’s security.

    He would come across as a far stringer more decisive leader than Turnbull and could likely been seen as able to achieve a better result.

    ___________________________

    This is a spoof post, right?

  29. Confessions says:
    Tuesday, August 21, 2018 at 8:39 pm
    briefly:

    I heard John Hewson on the radio this morning after the leadership ballot basically tipping a truckload of criticism on Dutton for having the arrogance to think that he could lead the party to re-election and the people who voted for him thinking the same. I thought then that they really don’t know what they stand for. When essentially half your partyroom wants to move further to the right and the other half wants to be more centrist, it’s an indication they have to go back to basics and start with what are their values and goals and objectives as a political party.

    Hewson is an outcast these days…a failed Lib. I think he had a bit of a conversion after his defeat and a long period of despair-with-bottle. He must know about the rush of blood …the scent of power…and the craziness that can induce. He is a sworn enemy of the Ultras, of course.

  30. Pretty sure he would need to be sworn in first? Though there may be “acting” provisions? Sheesh you’d think we’d know this detail by now! Haha

  31. Bishop going to rant on how Labor is bad?

    abc730
    ‏Verified account @abc730
    5m5 minutes ago

    Why should voters give the #Coalition another chance, @leighsales asks @JulieBishopMP. #abc730 #auspol

  32. don @ #2832 Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 – 8:52 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, August 21, 2018 at 8:39 pm
    Catalyst is on Australian food production again. In Mitolo’s spud plant… Freaky stuff. 150 thousand tons a year.

    ___________________________

    I honestly have no idea what that means.

    Can anyone translate, or is it not worth the trouble, as I suspect?

    I happened to see that segment of Catalyst. It showed the very large plant processing spuds.
    Quite impressive to my 15 year old eyes.

  33. what do the Libs stand for?

    Tony Burke got it right today, saying the only thing they are united on is who to hate. Labor.

    I am not sure what Abbott sees for himself. PM? Probably not. LOTO? That suits the wrecker in him.

    But what he wants above all is to destroy Malcolm Turnbull. And I reckon he wants it done soon, before Turnbull calls an election.

  34. rossmcg

    Yes I think Abbott may get the job in a day or two, but what he wants most of all is for Turnbull to lose the job before an election. No undermining, no sniping, just cold-blooded revenge.

  35. chinda63 @ #2758 Tuesday, August 21st, 2018 – 6:09 pm

    “Dan Gulberry says
    The poll was started after the last election, so “the next election” refers to the next election.

    Also the poll was on when there would be a Libspill, not necessarily a successful Libspill though.

    The judge’s decision is final and no correspondence will be entered into.

    Always gamble responsibly. ”

    😀 😀

    Apologies, Dan.

    My recollection was the subject was when Turnbull was going to no longer be Liberal leader, rather than specifically as a “when is the next #Libspill”?

    But I generally have a shit memory, so my money’s on you being right anyway

    Actually, it was that long ago, I can’t remember what exactly we were all betting on either.

    Because us democratic socialists are such good people though, I’m willing to rescind my earlier decision and declare jacaranda, cupidstunt and yourself as joint winners.

    Given today’s events though, it seems all of us are winners, even those who oppose democratic socialism like military industrial complex spokesperson B(ron)W(yn).

    So, everyone upstanding and raise your glasses in a toast to returning Australia to its democratic socialist core.

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