BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings lose their lustre, but the poll trend records no change on voting intention. Also featured: preselection action from Labor in the ACT and the Liberals in Tasmania.

BludgerTrack has been updated this week with new results from Newspoll and Essential Research, both of which provided leadership ratings as well as voting intention, and a Queensland-only federal poll result from YouGov Galaxy. None of this has made any difference to the two-party preferred reading, although both parties are down on the primary vote and One Nation is up. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains a seat in Victoria and loses one in New South Wales, with no change anywhere else. However, conspicuously poor personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll have knocked the edge off his surge in the BludgerTrack trend. Full results from the link below.

Now on to two areas of intense preselection activity this week, involving Labor in the Australian Capital Territory and Liberal in Tasmania.

The former produced an unexpected turn this week when Gai Brodtmann, who has held the seat of Canberra for Labor since 2010, announced she would not seek another term. This leaves the Territory’s vigorous Labor branch with three situations vacant: the lower house seats of Canberra and Bean, and the Senate seat that was vacated by Section 44 casualty Katy Gallagher in May and filled by David Smith.

Smith is now seeking preselection in Bean, which early appeared to be lined up for Brodtmann. Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports Smith has been formally endorsed by the Right, which appears to consider that the Right-aligned Brodtmann should be replaced with one of their own. However, the Left is throwing its weight behind Louise Crossman, manager at the Justice and Community Safety Directorate and former federal staffer and CFMEU industrial officer. Also in the field are Taimus Werner-Gibbings, factionally unaligned staffer to Lisa Singh (and formerly Andrew Leigh), and Gail Morgan, business management consultant and former campaign manager to Brodtmann.

Apparently in retaliation to the Left’s intrusion in Bean, the Right is sponsoring a challenge to Left-aligned Katy Gallagher for the Senate seat, in the person of Victoria Robertson, chief-of-staff to Gai Brodtmann. The race for the Canberra preselection was covered here last week; only the lower house seat of Fenner will be defended by a sitting member, in this case Andrew Leigh.

The news from Tasmania relates to Senate preselection for the Liberals, who are in the happy seat of having a likely Senate seat to spare thanks to the vagaries of the Section 44 affair. When the Senate was carved into short-term and long-term seats after the 2016 double dissolution, the Liberals originally got two seats with six-year terms and two with three-year terms, based on the order of election in which the twelve Senators were elected. However, in the recount after Jacqui Lambie’s disqualification, her party won its seat at a later point in the count, and the Liberals gained a third six-year term at their expense. Given the likelihood of their winning two seats, this means their four seats will likely become five after the election.

Eight candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection, with top position reportedly likely to go to Richard Colbeck, the only one out of the party’s four incumbents required to face the voters. Colbeck initially failed to win in 2016 from his fifth place on the Liberal ticket, to which he was demoted after heading the ticket in 2013. This resulted from a purge of Malcolm Turnbull loyalists led by conservative powerbroker Senator Eric Abetz, and inspired a surge of below-the-line votes for Colbeck, though not enough for him to overhaul the top four candidates. As fate would have it though, number five effectively became number four in the recount held after Section 44 prompted the resignation of Stephen Parry in November last year.

Assuming Colbeck takes top place, that will leave a further seven candidates chasing number two, plus the outside chance offered by number three. A newly confirmed starter is Brett Whiteley, who held a state seat for Braddon from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, gained the federal seat for the Liberals at the 2013 election, lost it at the 2016 election, and failed to win it back at last month’s by-election. But with the party under pressure to balance its all-male parliamentary contingent, he seems likely to struggle against Claire Chandler, risk advisory manager at Deloitte Australia and former electorate officer to David Bushby, who reportedly has the backing of Eric Abetz. Also in the field are Tanya Denison, a Hobart alderman; Wendy Summers, political staffer and the sister of David Bushby; Stacey Sheehan, Davenport Chamber of Commerce and Industry president; Kent Townsend, whom I take to be a developer from Launceston; and Craig Brakey, an Ulverstone businessman.

Finally, two other bits of polling I missed:

• Last week I noted Greenpeace had published a ReachTEL poll that included Victorian state voting intention numbers. I missed the more interesting fact that they also had one on federal voting intention from a sample of 3999. It’s getting on a bit now, having been conducted on July 30, but let it be noted that Labor led 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 36.9%, Labor 35.0%, Greens 12.0% and One Nation 8.1% (after exclusion of 5.2% undecided.

• The Courier-Mail had further results from last week’s YouGov Galaxy poll which, despite the newspaper’s best efforts to give an impression to the contrary, found respondents strongly opposed to the company tax cuts. Only 16% registered support for tax cuts for businesses with more than $50 million turnover, which the government has tried and failed to pass through the Senate. Twelve per cent favoured a response that excluded banks from the cuts, and 56% were opposed altogether.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,332 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 27
1 2 3 … 27

  1. Also from the Oz article above:

    The Weekend Australian has also confirmed the Prime Minister will pursue an aggressive campaign to force down energy bills that will include arming the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission with divestiture powers to strip the big three energy ¬companies of generation assets if their early closure leads to higher prices.

    If Labor tried to confiscate a company’s assets there would be extremely loud howls of indignation from the usual suspects.

  3. Bill Maher is right in saying that TRump hasn’t drained the swamp, he’s swamped the drain!

    The Justice Department is investigating whether longtime Republican fundraiser Elliott Broidy sought to sell his influence with the Trump administration by offering to deliver U.S. government actions for foreign officials in exchange for tens of millions of dollars, according to three people familiar with the probe.

    As part of the investigation, prosecutors are scrutinizing a plan that Broidy allegedly developed to try to persuade the Trump government to extradite a Chinese dissident back to his home country, a move sought by Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to two of the people.

    They are also investigating claims that Broidy sought $75 million from a Malaysian business official if the Justice Department ended its investigation of a development fund run by the Malaysian government. The Malaysian probe has examined the role of the former prime minister in the embezzlement of billions of dollars from the fund.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-fundraiser-broidy-under-investigation-for-alleged-effort-to-sell-government-influence-people-familiar-with-probe-say/2018/08/17/c9e55792-a185-11e8-8e87-c869fe70a721_story.html?utm_term=.136bdc382dad

  4. https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/08/18/territory-rights-and-assisted-dying/15345144006724

    Even before the Senate had voted on Leyonhjelm’s bill, another bill had sprung up separately in the lower house, co-sponsored by Labor MPs Luke Gosling, from the NT, and Andrew Leigh, from the ACT. It is due to be introduced next week, though the government appears likely to block further debate.

    The two MPs have opposing views on euthanasia, with Leigh supporting legalisation and Gosling against it. But they are united in their belief that the territories’ lack of constitutional status compared with the states should not rob them of legislative independence.

    “We’ve got to keep the pressure up on this,” Leigh told The Saturday Paper.

    This week, the ACT and NT chief ministers, Andrew Barr and Michael Gunner, condemned the Senate’s decision.

    Barr urged his federal Labor colleagues to contemplate a binding vote in future on grounds that, federally, the issue should be considered as one of territories’ rights, not euthanasia.

    “There are more people who live in the territories than live in the great state of Tasmania,” Barr said. He predicted voluntary euthanasia would follow the trajectory of same-sex marriage, and be legislated eventually.

    On Thursday, the ACT Legislative Assembly issued its first ever formal “remonstrance” – an objection lodged with a higher authority – sending a message of protest to the Senate and asking it to “reflect” on its decision.

    But after having reflected all week, it’s likely to be a while before Senate does so again.

  5. Steve

    I wager its because Turnbull is not well liked in QLD where the marginal seats are (8 under 4% margins).

  6. Only the Airport Giveaway journos count in a Lib leadership stoush. I know Rupe may have an agenda. But they have the contacts.

  7. Crikey Weekender on Dastyari and relevance deprivation syndrome:

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2018/08/16/dastyari-relevance-deprivation-syndrome/

    Chinese whispers of his demise were, unfortunately, greatly exaggerated. After an exile slightly longer than human gestation, the self-proclaimed Labor Party “bagman” is back at it.

    In an exclusive interview with Joe Hildebrand via Stellar magazine last weekend, former Senator Sam Dastyari reflected on his political afterlife. Doing his own version of the sad-clown complex, he joked about being a tight-arse and accepting perks from foreign interests.

  8. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/18/euthanasia-bill-defeat-former-territory-leaders-say-malcolm-frasers-promise-broken

    After the defeat of this week’s bill, the NT chief minister, Michael Gunner, tweeted: “I’m not disappointed, I’m angry.”

    Later he told reporters: “I had hoped the federal senators would have voted in favour of Territorians and the Northern Territory enjoying the same rights as the other 24 million plus Australians.

    “I will not let this issue rest and will take every opportunity to persuade members of both houses of federal parliament that Territorians should be treated as equals and not as second-class citizens of this great nation.”

    Gunner also said “we need to see an organic community movement around statehood in the territory like there is one for the republican movement”.

    “I believe in statehood and have seen the Australian government continually intervene in the Northern Territory like we are some sort of Petri dish.”

  12. Morning all and thanks BK. Gough said the pure was the enemy of the good but at this point I can see no point in Labor supporting the NEG. The whole framing of energy policy as a “choice” between lower cost and less emissions is a lie as SA has recently proven by getting both. Without regulatory guarantees the NEG is worth as much as Howard’s GST era promise to reform corporate tax evasion.

    As with the GBRF, the NEG is merely an accounting trick. That is all the Liberals have left because more than half their party room does not want to reduce GHg emissions. They want new coal mines and plants, even if they need government subsidy to be viable.

  18. Socrates @9:21 “at this point I can see no point in Labor supporting the NEG.”

    Agree. At this stage there is nothing to support while the Coalition are fighting over not details but basic goals.

  19. “The Weekend Australian has also confirmed the Prime Minister will pursue an aggressive campaign to force down energy bills that will include arming the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission with divestiture powers to strip the big three energy ¬companies of generation assets if their early closure leads to higher prices.”

    So, we will be able to strip banks of their assets if they rip people off as well ??

    Go Malcolm. Onwards and Upwards to a command economy. 🙂

    He really has not thought this one through has he??

  23. Barney in Go Dau @ #70 Saturday, August 18th, 2018 – 9:49 am

    Why do dogs like to stick their head out the window?

    For mine, because it’s bloody good fun.

    I used to fight my dog for the window when I was young. 🙂

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-18/why-do-dogs-stick-their-head-out-car-windows/10133502

    What a great story.

    I particularly like the following little gem :- modified to amuse myself.

    “They smell so much better than we do, in that their sense of smell is much greater than we have, and they have good vision.

  24. The Weekend Australian has also confirmed the Prime Minister will pursue an aggressive campaign to force down energy bills that will include arming the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission with divestiture powers to strip the big three energy ¬companies of generation assets if their early closure leads to higher prices

    Why doesn’t he do the same for petrol prices, gas, food, booze, legs of lamb etc etc ?

    CPG very silent about calling turnbull out on such an enormous person backflip on what is yet another Captains call in the face of so called ‘Over whelming” party room support just days ago for the opposite NEG position.

    Where is turbull called out for being utterly gutless and clinging to power with only his own blind ambition as a priority ?

    Why aren’t turnbulls own words being thrown back at him ?

    wtte – I will not lead a party which is not as commited as I am to combating climate change etc

  27. Q. Will transparent coffins be a success?
    A. Remains to be seen.

    I died laughing.

    Did you know SA has the highest rate of clinical depression and marital infidelity?

    What a sad state of affairs.

  29. James Campbell is a conservative journalist with the HS. But, he’s usually got very good information.

    More
    From conversations this morning it is clear Malcolm Turnbull has made his position “immeasurably worse” by taking the emission targets out of the legislation. For some MPs who never liked it much in the first place legislation was a “red line”.

    1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    Reply 1 Retweet Like Direct message
    Show this thread

    James Campbell
    ‏
    Verified account

    @J_C_Campbell
    3m3 minutes ago
    More
    Nor is anyone buying the idea a statement about the impact on prices from the ACCC and the Energy Security Board would deter a future ALP Govt from changing the emissions target. Because (a)”these people always get it wrong” and (b) “these people always fall into line with them”.

    1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    Reply 1 Retweet Like Direct message

    James Campbell
    ‏
    Verified account

    @J_C_Campbell
    3m3 minutes ago
    More
    Asked if this now has the capacity to cost Malcolm Turnbull his job, one MP – who was on board until yesterday – “the party is not going to support this”. Another Turnbull supporter said flat out “he needs to dump this whole thing and quickly”.

  30. “Did you know SA has the highest rate of clinical depression and marital infidelity?”

    Good light red wines though. Swings and roundabouts i guess.

    Oh…….they also have Pyne……..saddness…… 🙁

  33. BK says:
    Saturday, August 18, 2018 at 9:56 am
    Q. Will transparent coffins be a success?
    A. Remains to be seen.

    _______________
    Oh No!

    BK, that is grounds for immediate dispatch to the naughty corner!

    😉

  35. BK

    the cries of “Sovereign risk!” would be deafening.

    Ah yes, remember the good old days when hardly a day went by without some Coalition orc shouting “sovereign risk” at Labor ?
    .
    “The lie of ‘sovereign risk’
    BERNARD KEANE JUL 28, 2011
    Now that Australia is officially a “safe haven” it’s time to nail the myth of sovereign risk.

    ……………Note of course that such a definition was highly selective — the term never applies to conservative governments. Thus, Colin Barnett’s decision to jack up mining royalties out of the blue in this year’s WA budget wasn’t “sovereign risk” — it is apparently something only non-conservative governments are capable of. Tony Abbott picked up the theme, and during the election campaign claimed Australia was a poorer destination for foreign investors than African countries such as Zambia, …

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2011/07/28/calling-time-on-the-lie-of-sovereign-risk/

  36. The Hayne RC has exposed what it has exposed from its limited Terms of Reference and self reporting

    And there will be recommendations from the RC

    Specifically with Superannuation, and the disclosures re the banks operating in the Fund Manager industry and AMP and IOOF, what we are seeing is the banks divesting of those Fund Manager businesses including the ANZ One Path to IOOF which I understand is still at due diligence stage hence no information from either One Path or IOOF, apart from IOOF saying that if it can not improve returns above One Path’s abysmal performance clients should leave

    So where is the public in this?

    The banks make Statutory Announcements that they are selling off their Fund Manager businesses

    So the problems are no longer theirs

    And the Corporate “round about” is played out as suitors are found, Heads of Agreement negotiated and due diligence undertaken

    But where are the clients, clients who have had a 5 Year underperformance from the likes of the ANZ owned One Path?

    Where is guidance for the client whilst these games, including the RC, are being played out?

    Clients are receiving no guidance – only information as to the abysmal state of the Industry (noting Global Investment Houses are not included in the RC)

    Whilst the top end of town play their games everyone else burns

    There is no updated guidance from, for example, the ANZ One Path acknowledging the Under performance and the correction including Fees and Charges being reviewed and reduced

    The business remains their business at this stage of the cycle

    But the ANX One Path are silent

    Similarly IOOF, noting due diligence BUT where are the acknowledgements, the advices and information as to the issue of a Prospectus such that clients can make a reasoned decision to maintain IOOF as a provider?

    And the fee structure including costs if clients choose to no longer engage IOOF?

    They also are silent

    And that is just not good enough particularly in the current climate introduced by the revelations of the Hayne RC

    These Companies should be pro active right now

    The clients should not be left in the dark

    The Hayne RC should issue guidance in these matters to forewarn the Industry of the Recommendations and to gain any understanding of the intent of these businesses to address the very significant “gravy train” practices, practices which discriminate against clients

  37. Observer

    Agree ANZ One Path is a poor performer among super funds. Yet I know some large companies that still list it as the default fund for their employees. Obvious question: why? Does ANZ offer kickbacks or reduced fee accounts to the companies?

    One of many questions still unanswered by the RC.

  39. “Agree ANZ One Path is a poor performer among super funds. Yet I know some large companies that still list it as the default fund for their employees. Obvious question: why? Does ANZ offer kickbacks or reduced fee accounts to the companies?”

    In at least some cases there is some oversight body thing, that doesn’t really have any oversight, but it will likely have your CFO and maybe a staff rep or two, but in our AMP fund these guys are protecting AMP because they’ve kinda been in on it. So AMP still has the gig.

  40. Katharine Murphy:

    Dutton might be helpful for the Coalition’s fortunes in Queensland, he might help in seats where One Nation is on the prowl – but Victoria and parts of New South Wales would be a bloodbath for the Liberals.

    Quite apart from the positives and negatives of any particular personnel, there is also the cycle of self-defeat that semi-permanent leadership instability inflicts on Australia’s parties of government.

    The political landscape is fragmenting. Disruptors are providing competition and choice for voters. The major parties used to be about offering voters stability. That was the offering. That was the premium.

    Not anymore.

  41. The link posted by William (https://www.greenpeace.org.au/wp/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Greenpeace-31July18-National.pdf) breaks out age and Female/Male voter support. The actual numbers might be “getting on a bit now” but the trends in the table may still be useful.

    It appears that ON, Greens and Independents have a similar age based trend, starting highest among young people then decreasing with age. I wonder if this puts these three ‘parties’ in the same category, perhaps parties for people who are politically uncommitted (or idealistic or immature)?

    It also appears that support for the Nationals and Greens is stronger among females than males, and there is much weaker female than male support for Independents. I am not sure what that might mean.

    Liberal and Nationals support increases with age. Maybe that’s where those youngsters go as they commit or mature? And Labor support appears steady across age groups. Again I am not sure what that might mean. But it is another contrast to the KM quote that the “majors” don’t offer stability. The other contrast being that Labor has been nothing but stable for 5 years, unlike the LNP and the ‘disruptors’.

  45. Morning (sort of).

    Turnbull govt had about two weeks of ‘serenity’ and then chaos resumed.

    I’m looking forward to next Newspoll. Between #reefgate and #neg … the chaos has been loud and clear and media has jumped on board for both now.

    Even the Turnbull turd-polishers are withdrawing their support slowly but surely. And the Murdoch press, ever the fair-weather friend of politicians, has taken up the cudgel.

    Expect the ‘embattled’ label to be assigned any day now.

    Schadenfreude is brimming in my chest.

  47. Does anyone else sense the irony of the Murdoch media going full “Murder Malcolm” just three weeks after they were trying to spin for us his huge triumph in the “Super Saturday” by-elections. Remember, those ones where Labor performed well below expectations, which as usual left Bill Shorten with more “questions to answer”!

  48. Rocket
    Just four days ago the Australian said this. “Malcolm Turnbull has scored a huge win in the Coalition partyroom over the final design of the national energy guarantee. “

  49. Andrew Burrell has another in the Oz series on B R-S. This one focuses on the views of Leigh Locke, widow of Sergeant Locke who was killed in Afghanistan.

    The names of Locke and B R-S were linked in relation to an incident in which an Afghanistan young man was ‘neutralized’. There is some dispute about this killing. On the one hand some people believe that the killing may not have been necessary. OTOH, some other people believe that he was a spotter and therefore doing active reconnaissance during a active battle and that he was therefore a legitimate military target. I am not sure whether this incident is part of the remit of the IGADF Inquiry.

    Ms Locke is still friends with B R-S. Her positions:

    1. States that B R-S is being ‘bullied’.
    2. States that the allegations are the result of a ‘tall poppy syndrome.’
    3. Demands a ‘fair go’ for B R-S.
    4. States that the soldiers were not over in Afghanistan ‘to pick flowers’ and ‘they were not over there to be friends with anyone’.
    5. Holds the view that the IGADF inquiry should be allowed to run its course before any allegations are made public.
    The rest of the article consists of a rehash including references to bravery and courage and awards.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/sas-soldiers-widow-criticises-bullying-of-ben-robertssmith/news-story/62383af8e0dc5e70a5df98eed984b481

  50. sprocket_ 840am

    When my computer allows, I sometimes delve into the strange world of comments in “The Australian” – and Peter van Onselen seems to arc them up like no-one else.

    Your example today does certainly sound like it was written in a small Bavarian prison by someone with all the answers on how to remake the world. Maybe they should write a book!

    But seriously, my “archaeological digs” into this nether-world (sort of an appropriate allegory as so many comments come from the 1950s, or maybe even the 1930s like the one you highlighted) have been very revealing recently. I have only seen the “outrageometer”, a rough guide to the level of craziness and rage reflected therein, at this level once before, and that was in the lead-up to Labor winning the 2007 Federal election. Though fairly high levels were noted just before Abbott knifed Turnbull (the first time).

Comments Page 2 of 27
1 2 3 … 27

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *