BludgerTrack has been updated this week with new results from Newspoll and Essential Research, both of which provided leadership ratings as well as voting intention, and a Queensland-only federal poll result from YouGov Galaxy. None of this has made any difference to the two-party preferred reading, although both parties are down on the primary vote and One Nation is up. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains a seat in Victoria and loses one in New South Wales, with no change anywhere else. However, conspicuously poor personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll have knocked the edge off his surge in the BludgerTrack trend. Full results from the link below.
Now on to two areas of intense preselection activity this week, involving Labor in the Australian Capital Territory and Liberal in Tasmania.
The former produced an unexpected turn this week when Gai Brodtmann, who has held the seat of Canberra for Labor since 2010, announced she would not seek another term. This leaves the Territory’s vigorous Labor branch with three situations vacant: the lower house seats of Canberra and Bean, and the Senate seat that was vacated by Section 44 casualty Katy Gallagher in May and filled by David Smith.
Smith is now seeking preselection in Bean, which early appeared to be lined up for Brodtmann. Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports Smith has been formally endorsed by the Right, which appears to consider that the Right-aligned Brodtmann should be replaced with one of their own. However, the Left is throwing its weight behind Louise Crossman, manager at the Justice and Community Safety Directorate and former federal staffer and CFMEU industrial officer. Also in the field are Taimus Werner-Gibbings, factionally unaligned staffer to Lisa Singh (and formerly Andrew Leigh), and Gail Morgan, business management consultant and former campaign manager to Brodtmann.
Apparently in retaliation to the Left’s intrusion in Bean, the Right is sponsoring a challenge to Left-aligned Katy Gallagher for the Senate seat, in the person of Victoria Robertson, chief-of-staff to Gai Brodtmann. The race for the Canberra preselection was covered here last week; only the lower house seat of Fenner will be defended by a sitting member, in this case Andrew Leigh.
The news from Tasmania relates to Senate preselection for the Liberals, who are in the happy seat of having a likely Senate seat to spare thanks to the vagaries of the Section 44 affair. When the Senate was carved into short-term and long-term seats after the 2016 double dissolution, the Liberals originally got two seats with six-year terms and two with three-year terms, based on the order of election in which the twelve Senators were elected. However, in the recount after Jacqui Lambie’s disqualification, her party won its seat at a later point in the count, and the Liberals gained a third six-year term at their expense. Given the likelihood of their winning two seats, this means their four seats will likely become five after the election.
Eight candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection, with top position reportedly likely to go to Richard Colbeck, the only one out of the party’s four incumbents required to face the voters. Colbeck initially failed to win in 2016 from his fifth place on the Liberal ticket, to which he was demoted after heading the ticket in 2013. This resulted from a purge of Malcolm Turnbull loyalists led by conservative powerbroker Senator Eric Abetz, and inspired a surge of below-the-line votes for Colbeck, though not enough for him to overhaul the top four candidates. As fate would have it though, number five effectively became number four in the recount held after Section 44 prompted the resignation of Stephen Parry in November last year.
Assuming Colbeck takes top place, that will leave a further seven candidates chasing number two, plus the outside chance offered by number three. A newly confirmed starter is Brett Whiteley, who held a state seat for Braddon from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, gained the federal seat for the Liberals at the 2013 election, lost it at the 2016 election, and failed to win it back at last month’s by-election. But with the party under pressure to balance its all-male parliamentary contingent, he seems likely to struggle against Claire Chandler, risk advisory manager at Deloitte Australia and former electorate officer to David Bushby, who reportedly has the backing of Eric Abetz. Also in the field are Tanya Denison, a Hobart alderman; Wendy Summers, political staffer and the sister of David Bushby; Stacey Sheehan, Davenport Chamber of Commerce and Industry president; Kent Townsend, whom I take to be a developer from Launceston; and Craig Brakey, an Ulverstone businessman.
Finally, two other bits of polling I missed:
• Last week I noted Greenpeace had published a ReachTEL poll that included Victorian state voting intention numbers. I missed the more interesting fact that they also had one on federal voting intention from a sample of 3999. It’s getting on a bit now, having been conducted on July 30, but let it be noted that Labor led 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 36.9%, Labor 35.0%, Greens 12.0% and One Nation 8.1% (after exclusion of 5.2% undecided.
• The Courier-Mail had further results from last week’s YouGov Galaxy poll which, despite the newspaper’s best efforts to give an impression to the contrary, found respondents strongly opposed to the company tax cuts. Only 16% registered support for tax cuts for businesses with more than $50 million turnover, which the government has tried and failed to pass through the Senate. Twelve per cent favoured a response that excluded banks from the cuts, and 56% were opposed altogether.
One of the advantages printed news has over on-line versions is that the day’s news is forever captured and re-viewable some days, weeks or more later. I would love to be able to compare today’s offering with its equivalent on Tuesday. (It can’t be that difficult to add a timestamp filter to an on-line publication.) I suppose though that it is an advantage to the outlets not to have this ability to review. 🙁
Another side note on the IGADF Inquiry, I am unaware of any publicity relating to any alleged war crimes by any Australia being canvassed in the MSM while the War was on. Yes, it is 17 years since we invaded Afghanistan.
“Rocket Rocket says:
Saturday, August 18, 2018 at 11:33 am
Does anyone else sense the irony of the Murdoch media going full “Murder Malcolm” just three weeks after they were trying to spin for us his huge triumph in the “Super Saturday” by-elections. Remember, those ones where Labor performed well below expectations, which as usual left Bill Shorten with more “questions to answer”!”
Murdoch media, like the rest of the MSM, assumes the voters have the memory of a goldfish and the brains of a gnat.
Lucien Aye is demonstrating once again his incredibly poor judgement. His new NEG plan is creating even more enemies than the previous efforts…
“News Corp understands the commitment to the international Paris Agreement — to reduce emissions within the electricity sector by 26 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030 — will be set by regulation, which is controlled by the stroke of a minister’s pen.
Any future changes to the regulations would have to be supported by independent advice from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission and the Energy Security Board to ensure they would not increase energy prices.
The Turnbull Government could also accept demands from backbenchers to force electricity giant AGL keep NSW coal-fired power station Liddell open until at least Snowy 2.0 pump-hydro project becomes operational next decade.
The about-face from the government came after a growing number of Coalition MPs threatened to cross the floor and vote it down should the target be put to parliament.
Mr Turnbull, Treasurer Scott Morrison and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg will also spend the weekend finalising a package from last month’s ACCC Retail Electricity Pricing Inquiry, which will have a direct impact on price. To ease concerns the guarantee would not do enough to directly lower prices, it will adopt several recommendations including vowing to hit power companies with regulation to stop them gouging consumers.
The changes are expected to go to Cabinet on Monday night and back to the Coalition party room next Tuesday.
This is turn is expected to improve Mr Turnbull’s chances of securing an agreement with the states and territories to approve the NEG.“
As for our presence in Afghanistan, whoever is doing the spin for the soldier suing for defo, actually they were in Afghanistan to make friends it was the whole premise of the adventure in death. Kill bad terrorists free population, have happy population that doesn’t create terrorists that blow up civilians in the west.
That she is his ‘friend’ and talking like that is a very worrying sign.
Roger Miller
And it seems just like yesterday we were reading stuff like this 😆
https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/why-malcolm-turnbull-will-be-our-longestserving-pm-since-robert-menzies-20151125-gl7dy2.html
Peter Dutton tweets..
“In relation to media stories today, just to make very clear, the Prime Minister has my support and I support the policies of the Government. My position hasn’t changed from my comments last Thursday.”
sprocket_ @ #107 Saturday, August 18th, 2018 – 9:49 am
So that’s it then, he’s preparing to knife the PM.
But now we must worry about his successor. As in, worry it might be the Potato, the inflexible vegetable.
Obama has just heard of Turnbull’s latest NEG effort:
Confessions
I see that Dutton is being naughty, again. Does he support last week’s Government policies or THIS week’s Government policies?
poroti 1147am
“So here’s my prediction. Malcolm – who like Beyonce is known universally by his first name – will be the longest-serving prime minister since Menzies.”
I see that article you linked, by Elizabeth Farrelly in the SMH, was published at 515pm on 25/11/2015, and then updated at 715pm.
Perhaps the “update” was to add the “Possibly ever” after the above.
Maybe today she can give us all a fresh “update” of this gushing tribute?
The Democrats and the Greens Party have attempted over the decades for the parliament to debate and vote on any decision to go to war rather than being at the behest of the government of the day. Suffice to say both these parties have been unsuccessful in their attempts doing so.
Paul Barratt:
https://insidestory.org.au/how-and-why-do-we-go-to-war/
And we’re live, just again with crappy sound.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqECCUr0XgY
Also the whole “we weren’t there [Afghanistan] to make any friends” is also exactly the kind of ‘ethical’ foundation for someone who was already a bit right wing, a bit racist (you know the kind that would voluntarily enlist) to treat the people we were there to make friends with, less than the way you might treat your fellow (white) Aussie.
That statement in support of the besieged soldier is very problematic.
Just as who was it (?Nikki Savva) recently tweeted how sometime in September Malcolm (who like Beyonce is known universally by his first name) would become Australia’s longest serving Prime Minister in over 12 years.
Counting. Chickens. Pre-Hatching.
Peg
The Greens Defence Policy is to get rid of our planes, ships and tanks. In thirty years the Greens have NEVER supported the acquisition of any single defence item.
This leaves the Greens in the integrated policy of wanting to debate every war that Australia cannot fight.
“We cannot continue to allow deployment decisions to be made, as the deployment to Afghanistan was, at the whim of the prime minister of the day.”
Have you heard of the executive, you really should have it is kind of essential to our form of Government. There are also very (too) regular things called elections.
“to stop them gouging customers”
But what if the continuing increases are not as a result of “gouging”?
Our most recent Tax Invioces reflect our final child residing at home has established his own residence, so usage is down but the cost is up 10% for the month ($95- to $104-) Year on year
Gas comes bi monthly so we await any impact there
If these increases are not attributed to “gouging” I assume the outcome will be that we just have to cop it sweet because this government, representing that the most effective form of regulation is self regulation, has done all it can to arrest they cycle of increases
And why wasn’t “gouging” addresses prior to this because these significant increases have been the history for 5 years now – since the removal of the “Carbon Tax” was supposed to reduce the cost by the magical $550- a year
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, August 18, 2018 at 11:46 am
Lucien Aye is demonstrating once again his incredibly poor judgement. His new NEG plan is creating even more enemies than the previous efforts…
Mr Turnbull, Treasurer Scott Morrison and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg will also spend the weekend finalising a package from last month’s ACCC Retail Electricity Pricing Inquiry, which will have a direct impact on price. To ease concerns the guarantee would not do enough to directly lower prices, it will adopt several recommendations including vowing to hit power companies with regulation to stop them gouging consumers.
This has to be a fantasy. The Commonwealth does not have the power to regulate prices. Any attempt by the Commonwealth to interfere with prices charged would certainly be challenged in the High Court, where the Commonwealth would lose.
“Agree ANZ One Path is a poor performer among super funds.”
In my workplace we now have it nailed down in the new EBA that the relevant industry fund is the default fund for new employees. Suspect that industrially that will be much easier to do from now on with whats coming out of the RC.
Some years ago, the HR department head tried to move us to AXA, a retail fund, as the default. Spurious reasons given and questions about associations with people and kickbacks that were never really asked. 🙂
Anyway, some us approached AXA as staff members looking to shift over and got a lot more info on fee’s and charges than HR were providing. Very much a ripoff on fees and returns compared to the industry fund. Quiet words were had to middle management, most of who were quite savvy as regards super and pissed off. Strangely enough a lot of new employees for the next year or two had it pointed out them by that they had a choice of fund and really, really should look into it. 🙂
So few people stuck with AXA that the employer went back to the industry fund as default…but that was after the then HR management had moved on.
Axa’s model seemed to be to extract max fees and charges up front on joining the fund and then pay crap returns. Who’d a thunk it huh??
Disturbing thing was stuff i saw on the ABC last night where there is now evidence on the table that the regulators have NOT been enforcing the law as regards banks and super because they dont want to bring the financial system into disrepute?? There are serious and fundamental questions to be answered over this. They would bust your average punter for breaking the law but not a big bank? they consider corporations somehow above the law that applies to the rest of us??
If thats where we are at our regulatory structure is fwarked.
“The Commonwealth does not have the power to regulate prices. Any attempt by the Commonwealth to interfere with prices charged would certainly be challenged in the High Court, where the Commonwealth would lose.”
Hmmmm…………….there is that….which as a lawyer you would kind of expect Turnbull to know about.
Its all bullshit to try to provide a distraction to get him through to the election. The RWNJobbies who own his arse will still bring him down.
““The Commonwealth does not have the power to regulate prices. Any attempt by the Commonwealth to interfere with prices charged would certainly be challenged in the High Court, where the Commonwealth would lose.””
Surely this should depend on the circumstances, whether it is a Commonwealth or State power for the good government of the people, and how good the HC is. This whole idea of the HC as a independent umpire is quaint.
Hmmmm…………….there is that….which as a lawyer you would kind of expect Turnbull to know about.
____
The High Court will so hold.
Didn’t you know?
My somewhat radical proposal in relation to corporations that break the law is that it be made possible for a court, in sentencing, to order the detention or restraint or suspension of the equity interest and/or the sequestering of dividends flowing to the equity interest of a convicted corporation. This would soon drive profound institutional change with respect to the criminal law.
Fiery Real Time panel today, with Australian journalist Jonathan Swan stirring up a bit of hornet’s nest re Mueller.
The last time a bank stole from me I went to the Wanneroo police station to report the theft and ask for an investigation. The constable who attended me looked pityingly upon me, urging that the criminal law was aimed at individuals not at banks, and said I would have to pay a solicitor to pursue an investigation on my behalf.
State police forces should establish financial crime investigation divisions and task them with applying their criminal laws to banks and super funds.
Is Dutton referring to last Thursday when he appeared on Hadley and made clear his pathway to challenging Malcolm. Well, that will make Lucian feel secure, not.
“to order the detention or restraint or suspension of the equity interest”
Um, serious question, I have some doubts on the efficacy, but I want to try and understand what you mean better?
When I read the comments about sometimes needing to refresh articles in Outline I was reminded that Fairfax has loaded more ads into their articles so that adblockers don’t work.
I was trying to read The Age on my phone and it took a long time to load the article because about 3 ads were loaded that remained on my screen the whole time I was trying to read the article. I gave up
What does Laura Tingle mean? “At one level, Senator Anning’s speech appeared to have perversely created a rare moment of leadership in Canberra: both Malcolm and Turnbull emerged, quickly and unambiguously to condemn the discriminatory messages in the new Senator’s speech, and to reaffirm a commitment to non-discriminatory immigration.”
When I read it on AFR i thought it was a typo for Shorten and Turnbull but it hasn’t been corrected for the ABC or the original on AFR.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-18/federal-politics-week-victories-defeats-race-energy-climate/10133324
WWP….
I have proposed something I’ve called – for the want of another name – Custodial Administration. The idea is that were a corporation to be convicted of a crime, the financial interest – the equity interest or the proprietors’ interest – in the corporation could be sentenced to a custodial term. The conditions of the custody could be flexible, but could mean, for example, that interest could not be sold or used as security or would receive no dividends during the term of custody. The custody would be administered by a court-appointed Administrator, in the same way that a court may appoint an official administrator for the purposes of a liquidation or re-arrangement of a corporation.
This would give the owners of corporations a very strong incentive to ensure their nominees /delegates, the directors, complied with the criminal law.
Of course, this should be in addition to the penalties that can be imposed on officers of a corporation.
Conceptually, this is to detain the proprietorial interest, corresponding to the detention in custody of natural persons following their conviction of serious offences.
The US Fed imposed a similar set of sanctions on the big banks following the GFC, though this was done administratively rather than judicially.
Johnny
I think I get it:
There’s Malcolm, the leather jacket wearing progressive who believes in an Australian Republic and taking action on climate change.
Then there’s Turnbull, the opportunist who will sacrifice any principle in order to remain PM for a day longer.
Sometimes – very rarely, so it’s worth commenting on – the two agree.
“Mr Gupta…believes the underwriting mechanism could help slash the cost of solar power…to below $30/MWh and the cost of firm solar power – solar power backed by gas or storage to make it dispatchable – to $40-$50/MWh or ‘half what we pay now'”
https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1030555044955840512/KqsOOSHm?format=jpg
https://twitter.com/SimonBanksHB/status/1030555039352279040
The Australian has an editorial on B R-S.
The main point seems to be that the SAS were overworked, worked under extreme pressure, that the tactical situations were often confused, and that any judgements made should be tempered in that context.
Bravery is canvassed. The word ‘hero’ is used.
The Editorial asserts that the Inquiry should have been completed before any allegations were published.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/editorials/lest-we-forget-the-sass-bravery/news-story/04be3c1f9d6590ffec7f47571b8147c3
To be imprisoned is to lose one’s freedom of movement. Natural persons are readily imprisoned by courts. The financial interest of proprietors of corporations can be held in custody too. The proprietors themselves, of course, not having been convicted of anything, would not be personally affected. But their beneficial interest in criminal undertakings – and the banks are criminal undertakings – can be sequestered for fixed terms and on judicially-specified conditions.
Anyone who objects that the banks are not criminal undertakings need only review the testimony of the RC. They have been involved in money-laundering on an epic-scale; in skimming funds from their account holders/system users; in defrauding their own and each other’s clients. There has been pillage. The beneficiaries of the pillage have been the shareholders. They should also carry a penalty.
Johhny in Highgate @ #130 Saturday, August 18th, 2018 – 12:42 pm
The full Malcolm, I suppose.
Thanks Briefly, so essentially replacing or controlling the actions of the local board, which in most MNE are a farce in the first place.
sprocket_ @ #107 Saturday, August 18th, 2018 – 9:49 am
IT’S ON!!!!!
Personally I like convicting directors of crimes, perhaps jailing although that is expensive, and then ensuring the convictions effectively ban them from being directors, if they are not Australian citizens have them essentially deported and excluded from returning. A lot more naming and shaming too.
If you don’t think that is enough and want to hit hip-pocked nerves you could fine for a period of x years a percentage say 10% of international related party transactions, and dividends at say y, or 8%.
IMO Dutton has what he wants, real power and a fool to hide behind. He would be reluctant to cut down his shield.
Yassir Morsi:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/18/fraser-anning-and-bob-katters-anti-muslim-cry-is-about-comfort-not-survival
Late Riser @ #142 Saturday, August 18th, 2018 – 1:13 pm
He could have even more power if he had an even bigger fool to hide behind.
His plan is to become Deputy Dutton, behind PM Abbott.
I am just trying to sort out what happens in the civil sphere.
Does ‘The Australian’, for example, publish allegations before charges are laid?
Mr Abbott told 2GB radio on Saturday the revised NEG was “the last thing we should be doing” because it gave a future Labor government the opportunity to lift the emissions reduction target without the assent of Parliament.
“If you dump the idea of legislation – in breach of the promise to the party room as late as Tuesday – you just let an incoming Labor government come in and be able to increase it willy nilly, which is the last thing we should be doing,” the former PM said.
“It’s no way to run a government – making absolute commitments on Tuesday and breaking them on Friday.” Mr Abbott said the Coalition’s best and perhaps only chance of winning the election “is to say we’re scrapping the Paris deal” altogether, which commits Australia to reducing emissions by 26 per cent by 2030. “Let Labor be the people who rabbit on about emissions and renewable power and saving the planet,” he said.
Abbott is off again- not sniping of course….
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-way-to-run-a-government-abbott-slams-turnbull-s-revised-energy-plan-20180818-p4zy9k.html
“When I read the comments about sometimes needing to refresh articles in Outline I was reminded that Fairfax has loaded more ads into their articles so that adblockers don’t work.”
Not just Fairfax. I always accepted that if I’m getting a product for free, I’m the product, so accepted that there will be lots of ads. However, I’m finding that most news sites are now virtually unreadable by iPhone. Even on iPad and laptops, they take ages to load, freeze and become unstable. So I’ve put ad block on my desktop and taken to using Outline. Like commercial TV, I think they might be killing the golden goose through overwork.
WWP… manifestly, the existing regime of fines and possible imprisonmfnt of officers if corporations has failed.
This structure provides no deterrent. In fact, we could say it shelters corporations. Corporations have a legal personality. This personality and its components – the proprietary interest – needs to be criminally punishable.
The really bells the cat
“At one level, Senator Anning’s speech appeared to have perversely created a rare moment of leadership in Canberra: both Malcolm and Turnbull emerged, quickly and unambiguously to condemn the discriminatory messages in the new Senator’s speech, and to reaffirm a commitment to non-discriminatory immigration.”
Everyone remembers Tingle’s devasted stony face in the telecast of the byelections?
Hartcher’s and Murphy’s columns today adopt the reflex position when Lucian has stuffed up, blame politics, Labor (somehow) is just as bad. The implication is for the ALP to meekly accept what Lucian proposes for the ‘national interest ‘.
From indications today there is nothing for the ALP to agree or negotiate with. And Turnbull will be sunk, even more than he is now , if he gives them anything.