Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential records a widening of Labor’s lead and improved approval ratings for Bill Shorten.

The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the two previous polls. It also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect Newspoll’s in being bad news for the goverment, thought not in quite the same way. Where Newspoll had Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings tanking, Essential has him down only one point on approval, to 42%, and up two on disapproval, also to 42%. However, Essential records an improvement in the ratings of Bill Shorten, who is up three on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-27, down from 42-25. Further questions relate to drought and climate change, freedom of speech and social media and the Nine takeover of Fairfax, which you can read about at The Guardian – or when Essential publishes its full report later today, which is also when we will get primary vote numbers.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (down two), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

Also, federal voting intention results have now emerged from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, which have two-party preferred at 50-50, compared with a 52-48 lead to the Coalition in the last such poll in May, and 54.1-45.9 at the election. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (40% in May, 43.2% at the election), Labor 34% (33% and 30.9%), One Nation 10% (10% and 5.5%) and Greens 9% (10% and 8.8%). This poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday last week, from a sample of 839.

Further results from the Newspoll: 55% would favour lifting restrictions on gas exploration if it would mean lower power prices, with 31% opposed; 37% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition would be “best at maintaining Australia’s electricity supply and keeping power prices lower”, compared with 36% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down, compared with 26% for meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and 8% for preventing blackouts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,681 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. It’s pretty rare for a federal election to be won or lost in WA anyway.

    Be good if it was though. I always wonder how the modern world would have treated John Curtin, and if he would have been a leader or just a troubled man. Turns out he was both.

  2. [It’s pretty rare for a federal election to be won or lost in WA anyway.’]

    WA is petty. The election will be won/lost in my home state.

  3. Meanwhile in CPGland, the ALP needs to neutralise the debate and pass the NEG, as is, so they can avoid climate being an election issue.

    In the real world, the ALP should vote no to the NEG because it would not lower electricity prices significantly and it would fail to reduce carbon emissions appreciably.

    The ALP should make the case for a bold, ambitious, and effective plan to lower carbon emissions and cut the waste created by the profit margins and bloated executive ranks of privatized or commercialized transmission, distribution, and retail firms in the electricity sector. Electricity should be provided to all households and firms at the lowest possible price that is consistent with environmental sustainability. End of story. Electricity assets should be run by public agencies that are assigned a civic mission. Profit-maximization need not and should not be part of the provision of this basic utility good.

  4. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/08/14/essential-research-52-48-labor-21/comment-page-51/#comment-2868778

    Hinch, like Rhiannon, should have 6years terms because they won the 6 candidates out of 12 count the AEC conducted. However, constitutionally, the choice remains with the Senate and because choosing order of election, rather than the result of the 6 out of 12 count, resulted in an extra long term ALP Senator (instead of Rhiannon) and a long term Liberal Senator (instead of Hinch), the Senate chose that option as the ALP and Liberals have a combined (very large) majority in the Senate.

  5. It should probably be an Abraham who sacrifices one generation on behalf of another as he was going to kill his son Isaac. Miraculous painting of it by Caravaggio.

  6. Diogenes says:
    Saturday, August 18, 2018 at 12:24 am
    It should probably be an Abraham who sacrifices one generation on behalf of another as he was going to kill his son Isaac. Miraculous painting of it by Caravaggio.

    It certainly is!

  7. boomy1 says:
    Saturday, August 18, 2018 at 12:05 am
    It’s pretty rare for a federal election to be won or lost in WA anyway.
    Be good if it was though. I always wonder how the modern world would have treated John Curtin, and if he would have been a leader or just a troubled man. Turns out he was both.

    He was one of the outstanding figures of the 20th century and by any measure the greatest leader we have had.

  8. What a nice week Bill Shorten is having.

    What I want to know is how does Shorten and the ALP strategy team get Lucien to shoot himself in the foot, to overextend, and pursue causes he can’t possibly win, again and again.

    All I can think is that they spend their spare time playing 3D chess.

    Their pièce de résistanc was surely the 24 hour state income tax proposal, short and sweet.

  9. I used to live in Hobart and drank at the Doghouse. It was called the Dog & Partridge before that.
    William Lanney the last male Tasmanian aboriginal died on a shitstained mattress there.
    History gets me down.

  10. boomy1 says:
    Saturday, August 18, 2018 at 12:41 am
    I used to live in Hobart and drank at the Doghouse. It was called the Dog & Partridge before that.
    William Lanney the last Tasmanian aboriginal died on a shitstained mattress there.
    History gets me down.

    The great thing about democracy is that it allows each one of us may have a hand in writing history. This is its first principle. I love that. It also requires us to join with others; to find ourselves – at least in part – in each other. This is the most humbling and the most uplifting thing I know of.

  11. Dio:

    [‘Miraculous painting of it by Caravaggio.’]

    Intersting that you appear to prefer art above literature.

    May I introduce to you – I’m not being presumptuous – to the “Ice Man Cometh”, and “Waiting for Godot” – both of which, more than anything, portray the human condition – good reading for a…

  12. For a spoonful of the human condition, I can also suggest…

    Beethoven
    Opus 135
    String Quartet number 16

    The third movement – very slow – is one of the most poignant, supple, delicate and contenting passages of music ever written.

  13. Turnbull, Dutton, Abbott, Joyce………..the LNP, moribund, unable to govern themselves, divided by twarted ambition, money, infamy, it doesn’t matter, pretending to the end, inevitable defeat.
    The imbalance, fostered by Howard’s mob and the associated debacle of a succession of unruly governments. Totally without pretence, a system that promotes and rewards types unrepresentative of majority of Australians, coveting fame, wealth and influence. Media reduced to self-centred opinions, journalists reduced to the status of performing animals and a dangerously disillusioned voting public.
    Turnbull, or any of the obvious contenders, will be dumped at the next chance.
    How did we get to this point? Fighting about the NEG, final solutions, graft, corruption, water theft, homelessness, poker machines, coal. Orwellian doesn’t come close.
    Really looking forward to tomorrow’s regurgitated biased opinionated scenarios. Not.

  14. How did we get to this point? Fighting about the NEG, final solutions, graft, corruption, water theft, homelessness, poker machines, coal. Orwellian doesn’t come close.

    Selfies, it’s all downhill from there.

  15. Golly says:
    Saturday, August 18, 2018 at 2:22 am
    briefly
    I’m imagining Bill enjoying this moment in the hanger before take-off.
    Thank you

    It is especially good….glad you like it too. 🙂

  16. Morning all.
    From the bottom of Crowe’s article on the ‘NEG’.
    Cabinet ministers are hoping to secure support from two crossbenchers, Cathy McGowan and Rebekha Sharkie, to shore up the numbers.

    I wonder how predisposed Sharkie is to support the government at this stage?
    Especially for a cobbled together last minute plan. Was their any indication in the byelection of her support for renewable energy, as opposed to Xenophon who appeared to be a disciple of Professor Uhlmann.

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