The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the two previous polls. It also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect Newspoll’s in being bad news for the goverment, thought not in quite the same way. Where Newspoll had Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings tanking, Essential has him down only one point on approval, to 42%, and up two on disapproval, also to 42%. However, Essential records an improvement in the ratings of Bill Shorten, who is up three on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-27, down from 42-25. Further questions relate to drought and climate change, freedom of speech and social media and the Nine takeover of Fairfax, which you can read about at The Guardian – or when Essential publishes its full report later today, which is also when we will get primary vote numbers.
UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (down two), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.
Also, federal voting intention results have now emerged from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, which have two-party preferred at 50-50, compared with a 52-48 lead to the Coalition in the last such poll in May, and 54.1-45.9 at the election. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (40% in May, 43.2% at the election), Labor 34% (33% and 30.9%), One Nation 10% (10% and 5.5%) and Greens 9% (10% and 8.8%). This poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday last week, from a sample of 839.
Further results from the Newspoll: 55% would favour lifting restrictions on gas exploration if it would mean lower power prices, with 31% opposed; 37% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition would be “best at maintaining Australia’s electricity supply and keeping power prices lower”, compared with 36% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down, compared with 26% for meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and 8% for preventing blackouts.
Steady as she goes.
Up. 🙂
Up Up and Up we go!
Bernard Keane
Verified account @BernardKeane
57s57 seconds ago
So as predicted, @TurnbullMalcolm’s latest onslaught on privacy involves forcing tech companies to help put malware on our devices — which, BTW, weakens encyprtion as much as backdoors do. Good luck with that. https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/about/consultations/assistance-and-access-bill-2018 …
Turnbull finally gave Abbott a rev in parliament. That liar has cost this country dearly and in a dreamland fair world would be in the slammer.
Tony Bourke is very good. He has now uncovered the program for a conference the GBR Foundation held at a luxury resort 2 days after getting the money from Turnbull. The main topic of conversation?
‘Unlocking the opportunities for business to restore the Reef.’
Shameless Carpetbaggers.
Zoidlord @ #3 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 6:49 am
That’s all Turnbull ever wanted out of the tech industry wasn’t it? Control over us. And money.
It’s always salutary to check the Daily ToiletPaper when Rupert is in town, as he is hands on. So today we have exposed Rupe’s climate change denialism, and pending shafting of the backslider Lucien Aye.
And on the left flank, is a pick up of the GBRF knees up 2 days after the $444m – getting the donors up for some snorkelling, a beach bonfire and $2,000 a night villas. Gobsmacking.
Last night, by coincidence, I watched Tony Abbott interviewed on 7.30 (message: low prices are more important than low emissions) and a few hours later saw a documentary on the GBR (its half dead state and what might be done).
I couldn’t sleep after that. Has TA no understanding of the connection between emissions, climate change and the destruction of a beautiful, natural treasure? The man is evil.
This poll will feed the anxieties of the LNP nervous nellies.
Today’s party room meeting would be bruising for a real leader.
PM MT will probably need hospitalisation after it.
This Tweet from Nick Ross, which was put up by zoidlord late last night, is worth putting up again this morning:
Nick Ross
Verified account @NickRossTech
12m12 minutes ago
Replying to @KKeneally @barriecassidy
@lenoretaylor Well I told Labor that ABC management was manipulating news to help the Libs win the 2013 election (with evidence) and they did nothing. The unions said to keep quiet and when it broke not a single ABC journo mentioned it. There’s some root problems. #auspol
It’s only gotten worse since then. Now the ABC appears under direct command of the PMO and Communications department and Minister Fifield.
lizzie,
I think I heard once that Tony Abbott commented that if Climate Change became very bad, God would fix it. So why should humans intervene in God’s work?
Today’s GBRF revelation of fat bankers and mining executives cavorting at https://www.qualia.com.au/
With snorkelling and beach bonfires and $2,000 a night villas whilst workshopping how the taxpayers $444m is going to be spent – ‘Another bottle of Moët!’ – is just the rorting from the big end of town which stitches the narrative together.
All we need is a guest list.
More worrying, C@t, is that Labor ignored his ( Nick Ross’s) warnings.
The LNP, and their supporters, play hardball. Quite brutally.
Labor will need to be on top of every single break in the ranks.
Absolutely no tolerance of people under their control ( even peripherally) favouring the LNP.
C@t
And why should humans survive and the beautiful planet die? Especially self centred, grasping humans such as TA.
That’s one of the deficiencies of some religious nuts. They genuinely believe that they are the most important species.
Maude Lynne,
To be fair, Labor were trying to rebuild credibility at the time as I remember it, Turnbull was still very popular, and so it was probably decided to take the long view. #realpolitik
The GBRF donors had their snouts nicely in the trough, Dinner was at the Long Pavillion at Qualia – a sample menu
https://www.qualia.com.au/qualia/media/documents/menu-long-pavilion.pdf
I would have gone the hot seafood platter, as long as the taxpayer was picking up the bill
And the Truffle Fries as a side – in honour of Lucien Aye
Youse all will be reassured that Lucien has received ‘a boost’ as a result of some inconsequential event according to your ABC.
sprocket_ @ #16 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 7:15 am
When, ‘only the best will do’ for truffle pigs.
Cat
Thanks for the GBRF resort scam. Disgusting! Two hours of discussion in two days of snorkelling, dinners and beach bonfires! A junket of Bishopric proportions.
GBR Conference.
Working Groups 10.45 to 11.30
Just enough time to get settled, introduce themselves and promise to put some money in. :/
The GBRF meeting sent out a communique to us peasants.
Sometimes, amid all the big scandals and failures like GBRF, NBN and NEG, we lose sight of the smaller everyday failures, like this one. Six years of failing to meet our oil security treaty obligations, and now a bandaid.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-13/australia-still-not-meeting-oil-reserve-obligations/10114906
The plan if we run out of oil? Blame Labour, no doubt.
Latest Oz article on B R-S.
As expected, the Oz has taken up the cudgels for B R-S. The gist of the article seems to be that a Victorian Cross winner can do no wrong because a Victorian Cross Winner can do no wrong. Bludger commentators should take note that there is an apparent 100% readiness to litigate in this space. So do be careful about what you post.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/defence/ben-robertssmiths-victoria-cross-awarded-after-rigorous-scrutiny/news-story/9a904b3567395e0b0fdd69de23864ad8
It’s crunch time for Turnbull and the Wafflers…. The Hard Conservatives have had enough. The Monash Forum is ready to start the final assault: sink the NEG, which will sink the Turnbull’s Prime Ministership, which will inevitably unleash an early election (I don’t think that Turnbull will be replaced before the election).
The Hard Conservatives think long-term and don’t fear losing a battle if they can see that such “sacrifice” will open the doors to winning their war….
Turnbull is finished, this Government is finished…. looking forward to a trend up not only in Essential but in the rest of the pollsters as well.
sprocket_ says:
With Truffles and Frydenburg up to their necks in it an excellent choice.
Lizzie
Abbott’s position on climate change can be summerised as …
Republican Congressman Says God Will ‘Take Care Of’ Climate Change..
“I believe there’s climate change. I believe there’s been climate change since the beginning of time,” Walberg said. “Do I think man has some impact? Yeah, of course. Can man change the entire universe? No.”
He continued: “Why do I believe that? Well, as a Christian, I believe that there is a creator in God who is much bigger than us. And I’m confident that, if there’s a real problem, he can take care of it.”
http://time.com/4800000/tim-walberg-god-climate-change/
Sceptic
There was another one back about ten years ago. His take was that IF climate change was real then it is all part of Dogs plan, therefore to try and stop Dogs plan would be very norty of us.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Labor has crept further ahead of the Turnbull government, and Bill Shorten’s approval ratings have improved in the wake of the super Saturday byelection results, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/14/labor-creeps-further-ahead-and-shorten-approval-is-up-guardian-essential-poll
Paula Matthewson describes the polling horror story for Turnbull.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/08/13/malcolm-turnbull-newspoll-leadership/
David Crowe outlines the public attack that Abbott has launched against Turnbull’s NEG before the crucial party room meeting.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tony-abbott-mounts-public-attack-on-turnbull-s-energy-policy-ahead-of-crucial-party-vote-20180813-p4zx9i.html
Suncorp’s superannuation trustee used tax refunds within funds to purchase administrative services from other parts of the financial conglomerate, instead of returning the money to members as many funds do, the royal commission heard. The witness is having a hard time and Mr Hodge has him back for more treatment this morning after suggesting an adjournment so he can have overnight to workout to answer a particular question.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/suncorp-used-tax-surplus-for-admin-rather-than-return-money-to-members-20180813-p4zx69.html
Elizabeth Knight has chronicled the rather combative session with a NAB executive at the royal commission yesterday.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/high-profile-nab-exec-escapes-with-superficial-wounds-20180813-p4zx8s.html
The NAB chief customer officer Andrew Hagger admitted the bank had chosen, deliberately, to not tell regulator ASIC the full extent of its liabilities to customers before the bank reported its full-year profit in October 2016.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/superannuation/2018/08/13/nab-disclosure-thorburn/
The AFR editorialises that now that the Hayne royal commission has exposed the gaping holes in the regulation of the financial system, surely it is time to put the spotlight on Treasury. It says there is an element of black humour in the fact that the chaos and confusion over who regulates what in the financial system is only matched by the chaos and confusion over people movements in and around Treasury.
https://www.outline.com/rHWrPy
Katharine Murphy reports that Josh Frydenberg has secured the backing of a majority of the voting members of the government’s backbench energy committee to proceed to today’s much anticipated Coalition party room debate on the national energy guarantee.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/14/frydenberg-wins-backing-to-take-neg-to-party-room-as-abbott-brands-policy-a-crock
Coalition sources claim the government will spend billions of public money on new coal-fired power stations, as Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull tries to win support from his own MPs for his signature energy plan.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/08/13/coal-power-plants-neg/
According to Peter Hannam the Turnbull government could face further weeks of scrutiny over a controversial $444 million grant to the non-profit Great Barrier Reef Foundation, with the National Audit Office considering a review.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/great-barrier-reef-funding-faces-potential-review-by-national-audit-office-20180813-p4zx84.html
Lisa Cox is doing some good work as she tells us that the CSIRO was not aware a $443.8 m grant would be offered to the Great Barrier Reef Foundation and staff at the agency are likely to be seconded to the charity to help administer the funds, according to documents tabled in the Senate. She reveals that the CSIRO was unaware of $444m reef grant before its announcement.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/14/csiro-unaware-of-444m-reef-grant-before-announcement
From Reefgate to the Banking Royal Commission and Joyce versus Husar to Cash and the AWU raids, the case for a Federal ICAC is comprehensive, writes John Passant.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/reefgate-joyce-versus-husar-and-other-scandals-the-case-for-a-federal-icac,11780
Greg Jericho explains how underemployment is growing, and there is no easy policy fix. There are some rather unsettling charts in the body of the article.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/aug/14/underemployment-is-growing-and-there-is-no-easy-policy-fix
David Crowe tells us that the Turnbull government will challenge tech giants including Apple and Facebook to do far more to stop terror suspects and criminals, using stronger powers to force the disclosure of sensitive information in a major new test of digital privacy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/apple-and-facebook-pressured-to-reveal-terror-suspects-data-20180813-p4zx9b.html
Michaela Whitbourn writes that the NSW coronial system seems to be collapsing under the weight of its case load.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/coronial-system-failing-people-of-nsw-former-deputy-coroner-warns-20180813-p4zx68.html
Neil McMahon reports on a rather lacklustre QandA.
https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/i-think-donald-trump-is-a-gangster-a-clash-of-brothers-on-q-and-a-20180814-p4zxa3.html
Peter Hartcher has penned an article which he concludes with “The Saudi regime is a sickness. Unfortunately, it’s contagious. We’re about to see whether a Western democracy can inoculate itself.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/much-at-stake-as-nice-and-nasty-face-off-20180813-p4zx6c.html
The SMH editorial says that Barangaroo has mostly been a positive addition to Sydney, creating an entertainment, parkland and office precinct in a previously dead area. But the planning process has been flawed and that has cost the taxpayer and led to needless disputes.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/no-special-deal-for-packer-s-casino-20180813-p4zx87.html
Clementine Ford really unloads on misogyny and those, like Andrew Bolt, who demonstrate it.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/andrew-bolt-your-shameful-hypocrisy-is-not-welcome-here-20180813-p4zx6f.html
Business consultant Lisa Hagen tells us why Coles misjudged the plastic bags backlash.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/why-coles-misjudged-the-plastic-bag-backlash-20180813-p4zx6m.html
Zed Seselja explains why he’ll be voting against the assisted suicide bill.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-i-m-voting-no-on-the-assisted-suicide-bill-seselja-20180813-p4zx94.html
But Leyonhjelm is confident that the assisted dying bill will pass in the Senate.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/leyonhjelm-confident-assisted-dying-bill-will-pass-in-the-senate-20180813-p4zx8u.html
Melbourne’s dams are at their lowest August level in eight years, likely triggering the largest water order yet from the state’s desalination plant. And it could be costly.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/proposed-record-desal-order-to-put-pressure-on-water-bills-20180813-p4zx9e.html
Dana McCauly tells us how Barnaby Joyce has reached across the political divide to voice his support for embattled Labor MP Emma Husar.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/disgraceful-barnaby-joyce-reaches-across-the-aisle-to-support-emma-husar-20180813-p4zx83.html
And Amanda Vanstone takes aim at NSW Labor over what happened to Emma Husar.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/husar-saga-a-sad-story-for-everyone-involved-20180810-p4zwt6.html
Tet another government IT stuff up! Doug Dingwall reports that the Human Services department has pulled staff off its troubled new child support payment IT system costing at least $102 million and years in the making, as it tries to salvage the bungled upgrade.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/child-support-staff-told-not-to-use-troubled-pluto-it-system-20180809-p4zwev.html
Eryk Bagshaw writes about Australia recording a foreign business boom as Coalition MPs grow nervous on company tax cut legislation.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-records-foreign-business-boom-as-coalition-mps-grow-nervous-on-company-tax-cuts-20180813-p4zx77.html
But Cormann says the federal government is no longer committing to take any unlegislated company tax cuts to the next election.
https://www.outline.com/Uyq5y6
Michael Pascoe writes that Bill Shorten is exaggerating the cost of Turnbull’s corporate tax cuts.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/08/10/shorten-exaggerating-cost-corporate-tax-cuts/
Bloomberg opines that a solution to the current crisis requires either a gesture from the Trump administration or a humiliating reversal by the Turkish president. Neither looks likely.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/he-has-no-idea-how-markets-work-turkey-s-stubborn-president-set-to-create-more-financial-turmoil-20180813-p4zx46.html
Meanwhile Turkey is the latest victim of the ‘rolling bear market’ that is picking off the weakest links in the global investment scene one by one.
https://www.outline.com/a33jP2
Will the Sky New ban from Victorian railway stations and Ray Hadley’s own family troubles create pause for commentators at Sky News and News Corp asks Peter Wicks.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/ray-hadley-the-sky-news-ban-and-the-rise-of-romper-stomper-fascism,11782
The dental industry is facing some disruptive forces.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/diy-dentistry-smile-australia-dental-disruptors-20180809-p4zwgt.html
An organisation representing LGBT Catholics around the world has been denied permission for a stall at the World Meeting of Families in Dublin, which Pope Francis is attending on 25 August.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/13/international-catholic-gathering-in-dublin-rejects-lgbt-group-rainbow
Michael West exposes he pokies, prodigious profits and personal tragedy associated with the Dee Why RSL.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/dee-why-rsl-pokies-prodigious-profits-and-personal-tragedy/
Nearly 200 of their workers have been sacked but directors of failed construction firm York Civil have gone to ground, refusing to publicly explain the reasons for the company’s demise.
https://outline.com/CHnrj2
And today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week” goes to the former Ipswich mayor Paul Pisasale who has faced court on fresh fraud charges, including allegations he received gifts of household goods, including cookware, speakers, a barbecue and garden lights.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/qld/2018/08/13/ipswich-mayor-paul-pisasale/
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe goes diving on the GBR.
Mark Knight puts the boot into the drought relief effort.
Glen Le Lievre with a new metaphor.
And he celebrates the return of parliament.
Alan Moir on the reef.
Here’s a catch up from Sean Leahy.
Paul Zanetti with the progress of the NEG.
Peter Broelman with Barnaby.
Fiona Katauskas has another go at the refugee detention situation.
Here’s something from Johannes Leak.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/36966ee73cf9f478eb2e8f0567b9b1f7
Some more in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-august-14-2018-20180813-h13x7c.html
Sceptic
Thank you for that full quote. The’ do-nothing, someone else will take care of it’ attitude.
Centuries ago (!) when I was a little girl taking religious classes, we were taught that God gave us Free Will to do good or evil, and it was our choice. We had to take responsibility for our actions. The opposite of the ‘everything is pre-ordained’ thinking.
Time TA and his chums started to think of the consequences of their actions.
I suppose I should I had a short stay at Qualia recently – most luxurious resort on Hamilton. 5 -7 star.
Pavilions are only couples (king bed)- so singles would stay alone.
Everything is lavish.
Would have been an absolute waste of money and ‘not good value’
Kill Bill failed, and the media feeding frenzy is finally moving onto the many buckets of blood in the LNP waters.
Will the coal-backed pollies (Joyce, Abbott, Abetz, Kelly. etc) work for a leadership spill and/or party split?
The NEG is so piss-weak if amendments are not made to allow it to be made useful in the near future that the coal/power lobby might back it. Abbott and Co are probably more influenced by his desire to be radically right-wing and politically incorrect – remember this fuckwit backed apartheid as a student (why doesn’t that get mentioned more often?) – and to echo IPA, Quadrant and Murdoch media rather than doing the direct bidding of the coal industry which is probably mostly happy with the useless NEG.
The men to watch are Dutton and Canavan. Both are coal-backed anti-science queenslanders. Longman has to tell them that there are many seats at risk on Queensland, including Dutton’s. The time is ripe. PM and deputy PM?
The horror, the horror……..
“Here’s something from Johannes Leak.”
.
That acorn did not fall far from the tree.
I am still reeling from the Guardian headlines…..
“Frydenberg wins..”
“Turnbull lets fly…”.
Smoke me a kipper, I will be back for breakfast.
Thanks BK. At this point, Labour should oppose everything this government tries – tax cuts, NEG, and other excesses. There is no mandate, no public interest test, no credible arguments for them. The government is a bunch of republican style grifters, as GBRF proves. Have a good day all.
BK
The coal lump face is not a new metaphor. It is a play on a painting by Magritte. Magritte is one of my favourite painters. Note what Magritte writes about this image. It is just so spot on.
https://www.renemagritte.org/the-son-of-man.jsp
‘About the painting, Magritte said:”At least it hides the face partly. Well, so you have the apparent face, the apple, hiding the visible but hidden, the face of the person. It’s something that happens constantly. Everything we see hides another thing, we always want to see what is hidden by what we see. There is an interest in that which is hidden and which the visible does not show us. This interest can take the form of a quite intense feeling, a sort of conflict, one might say, between the visible that is hidden and the visible that is present.” ‘
An ALP pseph expert on facebook says one should not accept any individual seat poll unless the sample size is at least 700 for a state seat or 1000 for a Federal one. He also comments that the NBN is making this kind of polling more complex (I’m sure someone will explain why — is it because an ISP is harder to place in a location than a landline?) .
Off on a tangent here, the Governor General’s 5 year term (a convention only) expires 28/3/2019. This is likely to be close to election time, either just after or just before, likely during the campaign. This situation occurred with the previous GG (Quentin Bryce), who’s term originally expired in September 2013. In one of the few bipartisan agreements ever entered into by Tony Abbott, the then PM and Opposition leaders agreed to extend the GG’s term by 6 months. General Cosgrove was duly appointed by the Abbott Government in March 2014, complete with knighthood.
I think that it is probably time to do extend the term of the current GG now, for another 6 months. In the unlikely event that the House election isn’t held by the middle of the year, it could be extended to the end of 2019.
Whoever wins the next election appoints the next GG (I know it’s really the Queen). This is a position with real power. I don’t want this Government to lock their man (most likely) into power beyond the next Parliamentary term.
This is brilliant!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1028783270207488000
This sounds right.
Ron Jones @RBJRON
1m1 minute ago
More
Watching ABC24 and Mark Butler was on talking about the NEG and when he started to talk on coal fired power stations the ABC cut away from the Interview, would they do that with Malcolm Turnbull? I doubt it
Good Morning
So much breaking news of political idiocy in the last 24 hours. Not even President Trump being unPresidential attacking the woman his chief of staff fired allegedly without his knowledge is finding it hard to dominate the headlines
Predictions of the government’s demise are premature, the NEG as it will pass the party room, proclaimed by the press gallery as a major win for Turnbull.
The coal plant (dispatchable yes?), will be a separate proposal, not linked to the NEG, so the government can put pressure on Labor and the states.
Paula Mathewson take on yesterday’s Newspoll. She reckons MT is in trouble.
https://thenewdaily-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/08/13/malcolm-turnbull-newspoll-leadership/amp/?amp_js_v=a2&_gsa=1#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fthenewdaily.com.au%2Fnews%2Fnational%2F2018%2F08%2F13%2Fmalcolm-turnbull-newspoll-leadership%2F
I would like to see one, just one, banker taken off to gaol after this royal commission.
Will, it happen? I don’t think so.
PvO concluded the same thing from yesterday’s Newspoll as well.
C@tmomma@6:53am
You bet. Do you think he is influenced by Dutton?
zoomster @ #39 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 8:19 am
Phone numbers are progressively being disconnected from location. Now that the whole system is basically electronic any number can ba almost anywhere. In the past the physical architecture of the phone system tied numbers to exchanges and pollsters could use that to target surveys. Now they need geographic data sourced from elsewhere. Many landlines still have “legacy” numbers but their usefulness is gradually declining.
Nothing from the ABC on reefgate, but plenty on NEG ‘victory’ for Lucien.
They don’t even bother trying to disguise it anymore.