Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential records a widening of Labor’s lead and improved approval ratings for Bill Shorten.

The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the two previous polls. It also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect Newspoll’s in being bad news for the goverment, thought not in quite the same way. Where Newspoll had Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings tanking, Essential has him down only one point on approval, to 42%, and up two on disapproval, also to 42%. However, Essential records an improvement in the ratings of Bill Shorten, who is up three on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-27, down from 42-25. Further questions relate to drought and climate change, freedom of speech and social media and the Nine takeover of Fairfax, which you can read about at The Guardian – or when Essential publishes its full report later today, which is also when we will get primary vote numbers.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (down two), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

Also, federal voting intention results have now emerged from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, which have two-party preferred at 50-50, compared with a 52-48 lead to the Coalition in the last such poll in May, and 54.1-45.9 at the election. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (40% in May, 43.2% at the election), Labor 34% (33% and 30.9%), One Nation 10% (10% and 5.5%) and Greens 9% (10% and 8.8%). This poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday last week, from a sample of 839.

Further results from the Newspoll: 55% would favour lifting restrictions on gas exploration if it would mean lower power prices, with 31% opposed; 37% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition would be “best at maintaining Australia’s electricity supply and keeping power prices lower”, compared with 36% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down, compared with 26% for meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and 8% for preventing blackouts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,681 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. From 3 days back:…

    3 days? I meant of course, one day.

    ——————–

    Mr Newbie @ #2494 Friday, August 17th, 2018 – 7:34 pm

    For anyone interested, rage on the ABC are having a mini Aretha Franklin tribute tonight from 12:15am (Saturday morning) until 1am; repeated Sunday night ABC from 1:05am (Monday morning) through until about 1:50am.

    Thanks for that.

  3. I guess they’ll be dusting off the furniture and oiling the baggage lift at the lodge for this Sundays LNP luv in.

  4. Sean @esseeeayeenn tweets the response

    Well now that @TurnbullMalcolm has ditched the already-feeble emissions target to head off the challenge which @PeterDutton_MP definitely wasn’t mounting & @tonyabbottmhr wasn’t supporting, the #NEG is worse than doing nothing at all.
    Labor & the Greens should oppose it.
    #Auspol

    @itsBouquet tweets

    Malcolm Turnbull dumps plan to import a backbone.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-17/turnbull-dumps-plan-to-legislate-paris-agreement-targets/10134284

  5. Government to set target by regulation in move to defuse internal opposition – and court Labor

    You’d think a political editor ( spud) would know those 2 objectives aren’t even vaguely compatible.

  7. I heard Hastie on the radio yesterday bull-s:/-/:ing about “economic sovereignty”. This is the flimsiest of rubbish, yet it seems to get a run inside the Liberal Party. They are delusional.

  11. Apart from Turnbull, the other big loser is Frydenberg. His Bill has been dismembered. This has to be added to the GBRF fiasco. He should quit. He’s a waste of space.

  14. briefly

    There’s been a bit of discussion here on whether Frydenberg has a brain or not. I’ll maintain following Turnbull into the NEG minefield is testament to his stupidity.

  16. How is it possible for Malcolm to stand as leader of the Liberal Party at the next election. As Briefly says he has been humiliated. He is just a figure-head. I didn’t think it possible. But surely the Libs now have to chose someone else.

  19. Mikeh…this episode shows the Lib core has very poor connections with their member base. They are paying the price for pandering to the crazies in their own ranks, for failing to recruit and renew, and for allowing their thinking to be done by the IPA.

    They are a totally decadent and incompetent outfit. They are entirely unfit to govern.

  21. BK says:
    Friday, August 17, 2018 at 8:23 pm
    Prepare Josh Frydenberg for sacrifice.

    If he had any integrity he’d walk.

  22. guytaur

    In tribute to Aretha Franklin @SBS will air The Blues Brothers this Sunday 8:30pm

    Cool, they’re on a mission from god.

  23. ANTONBRUCKNER11 @ #2516 Friday, August 17th, 2018 – 5:22 pm

    How is it possible for Malcolm to stand as leader of the Liberal Party at the next election. As Briefly says he has been humiliated. He is just a figure-head. I didn’t think it possible. But surely the Libs now have to chose someone else.

    What’s changed? 🙂

  25. briefly

    They are paying the price for pandering to the crazies in their own ranks

    Much the same path I observed in my Foxtel’s Fox News watching days as the Repugs pandered to the Tea Party crazies.

  26. Chris Kenny tweets (I don’t think its a parody account has blue tick)

    People are missing the most important point.
    What on earth will happen to the global climate if Australia doesn’t legislate its Paris commitments?

  29. I can’t see how the ALP will be able to back something without a target in the House now. And that means the rebels will have to decided if the changes are enough for them. If they are not, the NEG is dead and so is Turnbull.

    Without the ALP did they really think they could get it through the Senate? No way would half the crossbench back anything.

  34. C@t:

    In many ways the list of coalition Senators whose terms expire in 2022 is even more revealing than the list of cross bench numpties who will get the boot in 2019.

  37. Davidwh says:
    Friday, August 17, 2018 at 5:33 pm
    Time to put the house on Labor at $1.50 before Dutton becomes PM. The odds will drop dramatically after the event.

    ___________________

    I have already locked in $50 profit. Small beer for many here, I guess, but it is my first foray into sportsbet.

    Maybe I should up the ante.

    atm it looks like money for jam.

  38. The unremarked reality is that the current generation is already starting to experience the consequences of neglect, denialism, dishonesty and greed shown by earlier generations. Climate change is not a surprise. We’ve known about it for a very long time.

    What is amazing is that, despite knowing how serious this is from our own first hand experience, the Liberals have made denialism into a kind of faith. They are crackers. They are cowards. They are corrupt. They are cynics. And they are liars.

  40. Setting emissions through regulation could be a huge win for Labor in the long run. But I am sure Turnbull will find a way to muck it up.
    The RWNJ won’t have a bar of it, if it allows future governments to set emission reductions without legislation, would totally kill off one of their biggest weapons.

  42. You can bet your bottom dollar there will be some sort of poison pill in the new NEG legislation that will try to prevent an increase in the emissions reduction target.

  48. mikehilliard

    Is there a single word for a person prepared to sell out future generations for short term gain.

    There are many. One of them is malcolmblighturnbull.

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