BludgerTrack has been updated this week with new results from Newspoll and Essential Research, both of which provided leadership ratings as well as voting intention, and a Queensland-only federal poll result from YouGov Galaxy. None of this has made any difference to the two-party preferred reading, although both parties are down on the primary vote and One Nation is up. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains a seat in Victoria and loses one in New South Wales, with no change anywhere else. However, conspicuously poor personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll have knocked the edge off his surge in the BludgerTrack trend. Full results from the link below.
Now on to two areas of intense preselection activity this week, involving Labor in the Australian Capital Territory and Liberal in Tasmania.
The former produced an unexpected turn this week when Gai Brodtmann, who has held the seat of Canberra for Labor since 2010, announced she would not seek another term. This leaves the Territory’s vigorous Labor branch with three situations vacant: the lower house seats of Canberra and Bean, and the Senate seat that was vacated by Section 44 casualty Katy Gallagher in May and filled by David Smith.
Smith is now seeking preselection in Bean, which early appeared to be lined up for Brodtmann. Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports Smith has been formally endorsed by the Right, which appears to consider that the Right-aligned Brodtmann should be replaced with one of their own. However, the Left is throwing its weight behind Louise Crossman, manager at the Justice and Community Safety Directorate and former federal staffer and CFMEU industrial officer. Also in the field are Taimus Werner-Gibbings, factionally unaligned staffer to Lisa Singh (and formerly Andrew Leigh), and Gail Morgan, business management consultant and former campaign manager to Brodtmann.
Apparently in retaliation to the Left’s intrusion in Bean, the Right is sponsoring a challenge to Left-aligned Katy Gallagher for the Senate seat, in the person of Victoria Robertson, chief-of-staff to Gai Brodtmann. The race for the Canberra preselection was covered here last week; only the lower house seat of Fenner will be defended by a sitting member, in this case Andrew Leigh.
The news from Tasmania relates to Senate preselection for the Liberals, who are in the happy seat of having a likely Senate seat to spare thanks to the vagaries of the Section 44 affair. When the Senate was carved into short-term and long-term seats after the 2016 double dissolution, the Liberals originally got two seats with six-year terms and two with three-year terms, based on the order of election in which the twelve Senators were elected. However, in the recount after Jacqui Lambie’s disqualification, her party won its seat at a later point in the count, and the Liberals gained a third six-year term at their expense. Given the likelihood of their winning two seats, this means their four seats will likely become five after the election.
Eight candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection, with top position reportedly likely to go to Richard Colbeck, the only one out of the party’s four incumbents required to face the voters. Colbeck initially failed to win in 2016 from his fifth place on the Liberal ticket, to which he was demoted after heading the ticket in 2013. This resulted from a purge of Malcolm Turnbull loyalists led by conservative powerbroker Senator Eric Abetz, and inspired a surge of below-the-line votes for Colbeck, though not enough for him to overhaul the top four candidates. As fate would have it though, number five effectively became number four in the recount held after Section 44 prompted the resignation of Stephen Parry in November last year.
Assuming Colbeck takes top place, that will leave a further seven candidates chasing number two, plus the outside chance offered by number three. A newly confirmed starter is Brett Whiteley, who held a state seat for Braddon from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, gained the federal seat for the Liberals at the 2013 election, lost it at the 2016 election, and failed to win it back at last month’s by-election. But with the party under pressure to balance its all-male parliamentary contingent, he seems likely to struggle against Claire Chandler, risk advisory manager at Deloitte Australia and former electorate officer to David Bushby, who reportedly has the backing of Eric Abetz. Also in the field are Tanya Denison, a Hobart alderman; Wendy Summers, political staffer and the sister of David Bushby; Stacey Sheehan, Davenport Chamber of Commerce and Industry president; Kent Townsend, whom I take to be a developer from Launceston; and Craig Brakey, an Ulverstone businessman.
Finally, two other bits of polling I missed:
• Last week I noted Greenpeace had published a ReachTEL poll that included Victorian state voting intention numbers. I missed the more interesting fact that they also had one on federal voting intention from a sample of 3999. It’s getting on a bit now, having been conducted on July 30, but let it be noted that Labor led 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 36.9%, Labor 35.0%, Greens 12.0% and One Nation 8.1% (after exclusion of 5.2% undecided.
• The Courier-Mail had further results from last week’s YouGov Galaxy poll which, despite the newspaper’s best efforts to give an impression to the contrary, found respondents strongly opposed to the company tax cuts. Only 16% registered support for tax cuts for businesses with more than $50 million turnover, which the government has tried and failed to pass through the Senate. Twelve per cent favoured a response that excluded banks from the cuts, and 56% were opposed altogether.
Jen:
Try this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIHrb70DGJU
Well, having read a warning that DiNat would step right into attacking Labor, I sat and watched as he did just that.
His excuse was that if (when?) Libs won the election, Labor would have allowed them their way over the emissions target and it would be legislated.
An alternative might have been for him to say wtte “We will work with Labor to make sure that the higher targets are possible.”
But no, that might have put off some conservative supporters of the Greens. 🙁
Cat
Just so you know. This is the last thing I think I may have posted regarding sexuality.
http://www.starobserver.com.au/news/national-news/major-grant-fund-research-mental-health-needs-indigenous-lgbti-youth/171185
I see that as posting something that progresses the cause of woman. Not telling people I am gay.
Be very aware there are some here still attacking me for daring to point out their homophobia during the ME debate
guytaur,
The Greens, despite what you attempt to purport, are singularly incapable of putting pressure on Labor any more. Labor ignores them now, with the benefit of experience. The Greens shift the goalposts to the Left on Labor, just as much as Tony Abbott shifts the goalposts on Malcolm Turnbull. For political advantage.
lizzie
Like it or not Sen Di Natale was stating the obvious. What the point of Labor if it just does LNP policy.
You may not like the partisan way of his saying it but it does not change the facts.
Well in Albany Coles supermarkets are unable to open this morning because regulation prevents them trading on Sundays.
meanwhile…
https://twitter.com/DanielAndrewsMP/status/1030955948163006464
Cat
I did not say the Greens were putting pressure on Labor. That was another poster.
I did point out the interesting fact about the voting after Mr Shorten acted to reduce the influence of the NSW right.
Victoria Labor government proposes rebates and zero interest loans to encourage another 650,000 homes to install another 2.6GW of rooftop #solar. https://reneweconomy.com.au/victoria-labor-pledges-1-2-billion-in-rebates-loans-for-rooftop-solar-19774/
lizzie:
The big takeaway for me from RDN’s interview is that the Greens are quite prepared to isolate themselves on emissions reduction rather than be part of a solution.
Sitting off to the side whining about how nobody will play with them is no way to achieve legislative change. They may as well take their buckets and spades and go home.
Guytaur @10:09“Be proud. You should be Labor did the right thing even though it caused division and an election defeat. Thats something to be proud of not ashamed of. Just like Whitlam introducing Medicare.”
And the pure are impotent.
Try this on for size. Rudd’s CPRS is legislated with Green support in December 2009. It commences operation in July 2010. Labor, led by Kevin Rudd, wins majority Government in November 2010. Abbott leaves politics to write increasingly deranged op-eds for The Australian. Joe Hockey leads the Opposition.
Maybe Gillard replaces Rudd in 2011 or 2012. Maybe Labor looks wobbly as the 2013 election approaches. Maybe a Malaysia Solution has stopped or slowed the boats. By November 2013 the CPRS may be no more an issue than was the GST in 2004. Maybe a moderate Coalition wins in 2013 and tweaks the CPRS to be more business friendly. Whatever happens the country would be far better off now.
Be proud? My foot.
Victoria says: Sunday, August 19, 2018 at 10:01 am
Meanwhile Trump continues to wreck the joint.
The jury are still deliberating the Manafort trial. Should have a verdict by Tuesday.
*********************************************
Not sure how you are reading it, Victoria – but there seems to some thought to the Judge – and the jurors – getting “threats” – that it may all result in a mistrial or even full acquitted. I don’t know all the finer workings of US laws but many posters – even TeaPain is surprised that jurors should have been * sequestered and allowed no contact with the outside world. A trial this important requires absolutely no outside interference.
Tea Pain @TeaPainUSA
Judge Ellis receives “death threats” and has US Marshalls protectin’ him while he let’s his jury roam loose and unsequestered, free to hear the President call the trial a “disgrace” and the defendant a “good person?”
Tea Pain smells a polecat!
* : to place (as a jury or witness) in seclusion or isolation
Note: Juries are sequestered in order to preserve their impartiality.
adrian
SMH Jamie Oliver front page.
I assume the article is click bate to avoid promoting the real story of the weekend.. the absolute total meltdown of Sydney’s rail network.
If a Labor government were responsible the rail fiasco would be on the front & next 5 pages.
What are you even talking about?
Tricky dicky was trying to spin Tory policy as labor’s yet again.
How can anyone with a brain still support the green Tories?
Coles IT systems offline:
https://www.itnews.com.au/news/coles-suffers-nationwide-it-outage-500469?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=itnews_autopost
guytaur
I wish you wouldn’t say “like it or not” so often. Makes you sound as if you know everything.
Labor doesn’t “do LNP policy.” They are tactical in order to reach their preferred outcome.
Confessions @ #706 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 10:25 am
Yeah, but if they could open they wouldn’t have opened. That is the only thing that counts.
Fess
As also discussed. Trump obstructs justice in full view. Trump’s actions are so obvious. There is nothing hidden about his motives and tactics.
I have always felt that he would do a runner and resign when it comes to the crunch.
Meanwhile it has been very quiet on the Michael Cohen front. There are rumblings that the story originally posited by the team patriot I follow, is going to be confirmed. Ie. evidence that Cohen personally went cap in hand to either Prague or another location to make the deal with the Kremlin on behalf of Trump.
Steve
Yes Gillard’s legislation was so pure wasn’t it. Pity a fact trips you up every time.
This is what I am calling out the partisan BS.
Labor had a carbon price that was acceptable to conservative independents.
The Carbon Tax lie was just that. Not called out by the media. However after the fact Cradling has admitted it was a lie as we all knew.
None of that is the fault of the Greens. Its not even the fault of Labor.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/dead-cat-after-dead-cat-after-dead-cat-the-media-is-being-gamed-20180817-p4zy20.html
Good take on the Anning dilemma
Liberals profiteering of Fraudband:
https://www.itnews.com.au/news/nbn-co-doubles-revenue-to-almost-2bn-500339
Just a thought process
But Labor introduced compulsory superannuation
The intro to an article in the pro business (and Liberal Party) AFR says the outcome of the Hayne RC may be that Australians despair of compulsory superannuation
We know the purpose of the Liberal Party is to oppose any iniative of Labor – and that is why they exist, not as a liberal party but as an anti-labor party
So was the presentation in the AFR the objective?
We have seen the “tinkering” with superannuation since 1996 and the anti-labor party significantly occupying the Treasury benches and which makes contributing to superannuation problematic if not impossible viz a viz the objective – to provide a meaningful income stream in retirement (and provide an ancillary income stream to any pension entitlement)
The caps and collars are what they now are
There needs to be a fresh Mission Statement in regards superannuation and the purpose of contributions to superannuation – then caps and collars on the Fund Managers, not on contributors within the Mission Statement
Confessions @ #710 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 10:27 am
The last thing the Greens want is for their “signature issues” to be solved by someone else.
PhoenixRed
Think about how easy it is for those connected to Manafort to indulge in witness tampering.
Another way to look at this.
What if witness tampering is suspected and they have taken this course to allow them to be caught in the act.
It could cause mistrial but it won’t stop the angst for Manafort in the long run.
“Damning picture of Jeremy Corbyn at an event with a war criminal.”
Spot on, Adrian. Blair is pure lowlife.
Insiders sounded dull , but turned out to be more engaging than when Sava or Henderson are on the sofa. Only criticism is that they skimmed so lightly over Reefgate.
Player One @ #723 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 10:33 am
The Greens never have an appetite for incremental solutions because their very existence demands there be eternal unsolvable problems that only they can fix with their pixie dust and their horseshit.
Roger @ #714 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 10:28 am
Lets hope they keep him as leader…. 🙂
Vic:
Plus as Bill Maher has said repeatedly, it’s a slow moving coup.
GG
You listen to Adam Carr.
Says it all to me about why Labor partisanship is wrong and denying facts.
Fact. PM Julia Gillard legislated a carbon price acceptable to conservative independents with the help of the Greens. The same Greens that gave Labor confidence to be in government.
No matter how pure you try and say the Greens are those facts remain. Its just BS to deny facts.
Lovey,
Reminds me of the reams of print stating that Bill Shorten and Labor were walking away from am ETS and carbon pricing soon after being in Opposition. These were complete fantasy, of course, but suited the narrative that Bill Shorten had “questions to answer!!” Other than blind partisanship, what evidence do you have to support your claim?
Victoria says: Sunday, August 19, 2018 at 10:34 am
PhoenixRed
Think about how easy it is for those connected to Manafort to indulge in witness tampering.
Another way to look at this.
What if witness tampering is suspected and they have taken this course to allow them to be caught in the act.
It could cause mistrial but it won’t stop the angst for Manafort in the long run.
************************************************
For me – I would hate to be a juror on anything to do with Trump – and the crazies that follow him or the ‘mobsters’ that Trump/Manafort owes to . Manafort may indeed get aquitted on THIS trial but the upcoming September one will be a different ballgame ….
Re the Coles situation, Amy makes the obvious political point.
Amy Remeikis
Verified account
@AmyRemeikis
13m13 minutes ago
More Amy Remeikis Retweeted Sky News Australia
Obviously, this is the fault of single use plastic bags. We just didn’t understand their power.
Q : If the red house was made of red bricks and the yellow house was made of yellow bricks and the blue house was made of blue bricks what was the greenhouse made out of?
A: Glass.
dave @ #734 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 10:43 am
Inside the Greenshouse
Is that like BK’s glass coffin from yesterday.
Remains to be seen!
This is from Fairfax radio (Channel 9, SMH, Age, 2GB, etc.) and this is what they are peddling.
‘3AW Melbourne
@3AW693
“We don’t need displays of political correctness before the game to make us all feel a bit better. It’s ridiculous.
“It is virtue-signalling.
“It’s not what people go to the football for.
“They just want their team to win.
“That’s all it should be about.”
– @TomElliott3AW’
This is what a former sport writer at the Age responds:
‘Rohan Connolly
@rohan_connolly
Yeah, sorry two guys shaking hands for fully two seconds before a game of footy upset you so much Tom. Must have been really tough for you to take. ‘
@guytaur-
“Like it or not Sen Di Natale was stating the obvious. What the point of Labor if it just does LNP policy.
You may not like the partisan way of his saying it but it does not change the facts.”
And:-
“Be proud. You should be Labor did the right thing even though it caused division and an election defeat. Thats something to be proud of not ashamed of. Just like Whitlam introducing Medicare.”
Make yourself a nice cup of tea. Take a few deep breaths, then read my long post from the previous page, then reread Steve777 post above.
As for Medicare. Medicare was part of the Whitlam program announced years before the 72 election. Whitlam called and won a DD in 1974 to get it through. Once Fraser dismantled it, it became a key election issue for Hawke to win both the 1983 and 1984 elections. Why? Because Whitlam and labor had already done the hard work in engaging with the community to obtain a broad concensus of opinion in favour of it. There was none of that “surprise, you have a carbon tax” effect that happened in 2011. …
Andrew Earlwood.
Ah yes more denial of facts.
No matter how you try and spin it the Greens supported a Labor government by giving it confidence.
Thats not being pure thats compromise. So was the Carbon pricing.
To claim the Greens are pure you have to say Julia Gillard had to have had 100% foresight of the internal Labor divisions and what Abbott and the media would do with the carbon tax lie.
lol:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-way-to-run-a-government-abbott-slams-turnbull-s-revised-energy-plan-20180818-p4zy9k.html
Turnbull as aclown in a minefield.
Guytaur – politics is the art of the possible. It’s what you can persuade people to vote for.
I don’t recall details of what the Greens wanted in 2010. It could well have been better than Kevin Rudd’s CPRS. I would have been happy to pay higher electricity prices to address climate change (rather then enrich private rent seekers which is what I’m doing now). But then I was working, with a very good salary, near retirement with good super, no family responsibilities and no mortgage. The people whose votes Labor needed had mortgages, kids to feed and educate and were worried about their jobs and interest rates. The future of climate way down their list of priorities.
You can be pragmatic and maybe get 60 or 70% of what you want. Or you can insist on 100% and get nothing. That’s how John Howard transformed Australia, although in a bad way. Labor can do the same in a good way.
Catmomma Guytaur did not mention his sexuality first, it was brought up by a distasteful person as an ad hominem detraction from his arguments and then I mentioned that this was worth noting in light of Faruqi’s comment. Only then did he mention it in the quote you gave. Were you simply incorrect or being disingenuous?
Steve
Yes. And the Greens did the art of the possible.
As you can see still the denialists rule the roost in the LNP.
They are the pure ideology over practical not doing the art of the possible here.
The Greens did compromise. Of course they could just listen to you and withdraw support for Barr in the ACT.
Turnbull to go to Forbes to shovel out another truck load of drought money.
This Global Warming thing could turn out to be expensive.
PhoenixRed
What do mobsters excel in.
Intimidation
Nothing less is expected.
My feeling is that Manafort will get his just desserts.
And as you say the next trial is going to be exponentially bigger for him.
No point engaging with Guy today Steve, he’s in full “greentaur” mode. Incapable of seeing the forest for the trees. Just like how he tries to crabwalk the Greens away from taking their fair share of responsibility over the defeat of the Malaysia Solution …
Fess
It has been a coup from the get go. But Trump and co will not succeed
Andrew Earlwood
No point in engaging with you today. You are in deny the facts mode about Greens compromising when Labor had a minority government.
Just keep peddling the Murdoch narrative its all the fault of the Greens and not the LNP
I see that the Greens are going full bottle Kill Bill.
Along with Murdoch.
That is all anyone needs to know about the Greens.
“Ah yes more denial of facts.
No matter how you try and spin it the Greens supported a Labor government by giving it confidence.
Thats not being pure thats compromise. So was the Carbon pricing.”
If you think that embodies “compromise” you are clearly as clueless as you are witless when in “greentaur” mode.