BludgerTrack has been updated this week with new results from Newspoll and Essential Research, both of which provided leadership ratings as well as voting intention, and a Queensland-only federal poll result from YouGov Galaxy. None of this has made any difference to the two-party preferred reading, although both parties are down on the primary vote and One Nation is up. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains a seat in Victoria and loses one in New South Wales, with no change anywhere else. However, conspicuously poor personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll have knocked the edge off his surge in the BludgerTrack trend. Full results from the link below.
Now on to two areas of intense preselection activity this week, involving Labor in the Australian Capital Territory and Liberal in Tasmania.
The former produced an unexpected turn this week when Gai Brodtmann, who has held the seat of Canberra for Labor since 2010, announced she would not seek another term. This leaves the Territory’s vigorous Labor branch with three situations vacant: the lower house seats of Canberra and Bean, and the Senate seat that was vacated by Section 44 casualty Katy Gallagher in May and filled by David Smith.
Smith is now seeking preselection in Bean, which early appeared to be lined up for Brodtmann. Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports Smith has been formally endorsed by the Right, which appears to consider that the Right-aligned Brodtmann should be replaced with one of their own. However, the Left is throwing its weight behind Louise Crossman, manager at the Justice and Community Safety Directorate and former federal staffer and CFMEU industrial officer. Also in the field are Taimus Werner-Gibbings, factionally unaligned staffer to Lisa Singh (and formerly Andrew Leigh), and Gail Morgan, business management consultant and former campaign manager to Brodtmann.
Apparently in retaliation to the Left’s intrusion in Bean, the Right is sponsoring a challenge to Left-aligned Katy Gallagher for the Senate seat, in the person of Victoria Robertson, chief-of-staff to Gai Brodtmann. The race for the Canberra preselection was covered here last week; only the lower house seat of Fenner will be defended by a sitting member, in this case Andrew Leigh.
The news from Tasmania relates to Senate preselection for the Liberals, who are in the happy seat of having a likely Senate seat to spare thanks to the vagaries of the Section 44 affair. When the Senate was carved into short-term and long-term seats after the 2016 double dissolution, the Liberals originally got two seats with six-year terms and two with three-year terms, based on the order of election in which the twelve Senators were elected. However, in the recount after Jacqui Lambie’s disqualification, her party won its seat at a later point in the count, and the Liberals gained a third six-year term at their expense. Given the likelihood of their winning two seats, this means their four seats will likely become five after the election.
Eight candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection, with top position reportedly likely to go to Richard Colbeck, the only one out of the party’s four incumbents required to face the voters. Colbeck initially failed to win in 2016 from his fifth place on the Liberal ticket, to which he was demoted after heading the ticket in 2013. This resulted from a purge of Malcolm Turnbull loyalists led by conservative powerbroker Senator Eric Abetz, and inspired a surge of below-the-line votes for Colbeck, though not enough for him to overhaul the top four candidates. As fate would have it though, number five effectively became number four in the recount held after Section 44 prompted the resignation of Stephen Parry in November last year.
Assuming Colbeck takes top place, that will leave a further seven candidates chasing number two, plus the outside chance offered by number three. A newly confirmed starter is Brett Whiteley, who held a state seat for Braddon from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, gained the federal seat for the Liberals at the 2013 election, lost it at the 2016 election, and failed to win it back at last month’s by-election. But with the party under pressure to balance its all-male parliamentary contingent, he seems likely to struggle against Claire Chandler, risk advisory manager at Deloitte Australia and former electorate officer to David Bushby, who reportedly has the backing of Eric Abetz. Also in the field are Tanya Denison, a Hobart alderman; Wendy Summers, political staffer and the sister of David Bushby; Stacey Sheehan, Davenport Chamber of Commerce and Industry president; Kent Townsend, whom I take to be a developer from Launceston; and Craig Brakey, an Ulverstone businessman.
Finally, two other bits of polling I missed:
• Last week I noted Greenpeace had published a ReachTEL poll that included Victorian state voting intention numbers. I missed the more interesting fact that they also had one on federal voting intention from a sample of 3999. It’s getting on a bit now, having been conducted on July 30, but let it be noted that Labor led 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 36.9%, Labor 35.0%, Greens 12.0% and One Nation 8.1% (after exclusion of 5.2% undecided.
• The Courier-Mail had further results from last week’s YouGov Galaxy poll which, despite the newspaper’s best efforts to give an impression to the contrary, found respondents strongly opposed to the company tax cuts. Only 16% registered support for tax cuts for businesses with more than $50 million turnover, which the government has tried and failed to pass through the Senate. Twelve per cent favoured a response that excluded banks from the cuts, and 56% were opposed altogether.
Bugler
I did not say don’t discuss it. I just said don’t fall for the distraction. Remember Di Natale is attacking Labor for supporting the LNP. This only works when Labor supports the LNP.
No matter how many times Labor people say but the Greens voted with the LNP too.
guytaur @ #717 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 9:48 am
Given it’s RDN doing the attacking and not Labor at all, what’s your point ?
Turnbull is so inept at politics that he thinks the NEG is a dead cat.
As a matter of fact when we should be talking about the division in the LNP what is the discussion.
Green Labor wars. There is a pattern.
RdN – wtte of ‘we need to win more seats in Parliament so that when Labor is elected we can put pressure on them.”
So no point putting pressure on the Libs?
Also the incoming Green Senator once again signals that the Greens are not an environmental party.
This sums it up perfectly!
Why should Labor bother agreeing to anything the govt puts forward.
Stephen Spencer
@sspencer_63
Reminder that for most of this week the press gallery had been demanding Labor commit to an NEG that a Turnbull no longer supports.
8:01 PM · Aug 17, 2018 from Canberra, Australian Capital Territory
Zoomster
Spoken as a true Labor partisan. The very statement you quote is an attack on the LNP. Thats a party political leader telling the media Labor is going to be the next government.
Victoria
Yes exactly the point Senator Di Natale made on Insiders seen as an attack on Labor by the partisans.
I think stating the obvious is not an attack on Labor but there you go.
It is the only way this incompetent bunch of gravy train toadies can get anything done. But we will need at least 12 months of them fluffing around like pork chops at a jewish wedding before they agree on how/what/when/where.
I am over this Claytons government of crooks, cads and cretins. Election now!
guytaur
Actually, no, he wasn’t. It was a very non specific timeframe (and followed an attack on Labor – wtte “I don’t trust Shorten to follow through on raising the emissions standards.”)
Meanwhile Trump continues to wreck the joint.
The jury are still deliberating the Manafort trial. Should have a verdict by Tuesday.
Subsequently, there should be more indictments coming down the pike for Trump’s inner circle.
The mid terms are creeping up and unless things ramp up in next few weeks, there is every chance Mueller will hold off until after midterms.
So much opportunity for Trump to consolidate his wrecking the joint show.
Sigh……..
You are a Green guytaur. You are a joke without a punchline.
Spoken as a true Labor partisan. The very statement you quote is an attack on the LNP. Thats a party political leader telling the media Labor is going to be the next government.
Quoteoomster
Spoken as a true Labor partisan. The very statement you quote is an attack on the LNP. Thats a party political leader telling the media Labor is going to be the next government.
Quote
zoomster
Well Labor has a record. You claim the Greens are pure for sticking with the science as targets.
Then after Labor legislates some real carbon pricing instead of owning it and being proud of it Labor blames the Greens totally letting the LNP narrative run there was no point in legislating a carbon price.
If Labor had done that with Medicare we would now have the American system of health provision
Proof that the Greens are just as much about politics than actual policy than those dreaded major parties they criticise.
Hypocrisy much?
torchbearer @ #554 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 8:36 am
According to this article, France is the only country in the world actually reducing C02 emissions fast enough to do any good. By going nuclear.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/518711/to-meet-emissions-targets-weve-all-got-to-be-like-france/
Guytaur
I havent watched Insiders.
My view is that Labor should hammer the point.
Of course they should also continue to push Turnbull on Reefgate
boomy
I cannot help it if you cannot see the attack on the LNP through your partisan blinkers
That morph from McMahon to Turnbull is scary
Guytaur,
Considering you’re the only one who appears to be claiming that their preferred party is above criticism (perhaps that’s lack of clarity on your part or I’ve skimmed over something), it would seek that you are also a partisan…
Rex,
Neither are the Greens entitled to those seats and if Labor wants to defend them by pointing out the Greens hypocrisy they should just accept that.
Vic:
Did you catch Real Time yesterday? It was very good, esp Preet Bharara, former US Attorney for NY.
Zoomster, without the Greens putting pressure on Labor it would be a right-wing bunch of complacent shoppies. More pressure, please.
Bugler
I am not saying they are above criticism. I am only saying don’t get distracted and don’t let the LNP run the narrative.
Thats it.
BB – The NEG is deader than Nessie the cat!
Simon² Katich® @ #17943 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 6:47 am
This reminds me of the time I was driving up into the Welsh mountains.
In my mirror was lush green farmland stretching off towards the Irish Sea as was the scene all around me.
I turned the next corner only to be assaulted by this huge black-grey scar covering the entire hillside.
🙁
Pegasus @ #635 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 9:45 am
Ah, the Virtuous Victims Party representative raises it’s head to show support over an essentially meaningless argument which has been conducted here while Insiders has been on.
With bigger fish to fry PB goes round and round the maypole about sexuality. Sheesh.
Also don’t forget that some figures in the ALP went to work for the mining companies after the Labor division.
Its almost like a Democrat helping Trump win an election.
It was an awful time for the ALP as it was divided between vested interests (job protection instead of seeing the inevitable) and the reality of needing to have transition for workers to retrain.
Gillard and the ALP made the right call and brought in a carbon price.
Be proud. You should be Labor did the right thing even though it caused division and an election defeat. Thats something to be proud of not ashamed of. Just like Whitlam introducing Medicare.
Barney, if only that was the only coal mine in the upper hunter. The place is covered by large open wounds..
“Of course, to the surprise of no one except perhaps the minister for home affairs, it has found the retail side is a stinking cesspit, while the industry super funds have pretty much sailed through unscathed.”
Hey Grog, be a bit less ambiguous huh?? 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/aug/19/the-last-thing-anyone-needs-is-industry-super-acting-like-retail-funds-and-now-we-have-proof
Cat
Pegasus did not bring up sexuality. Neither did I.
The people that did are using homophobia to dismiss my arguments.
Fess
I did catch it.
I found Jonathan Swan to be interesting. I follow his reporting on Capitol Hill, and he does come up with some good stories.
Yet his insights on Real Time suggest that the smoking gun may not be forthcoming
Labor already have a Left wing which puts pressure on them internally. They don’t need the political shenanigans and pointless posturing from The Greens in order to resolve issues of importance which The Greens think they own.
Simon² Katich® @ #680 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 7:10 am
Same in the Welsh mountains, fortunately for them they are no longer working mines.
steve
Thanks for the list of fates of PMs.
Basically all ended badly except Menzies.
Makes you wonder whether the US system leads to more respect for presidents as most of them retire without ever losing. It must be an easier gig to walk around never having lost, and you’d be a lot less bitter.
Cat
How dare another party exist to appeal to voters.
Thats the essence of your response about the Greens putting pressure on Labor.
Maybe they are successful when the NSW right wins in the Labor party.
Its interesting the Green vote has gone down as Mr Shorten has pulled the teeth of the right in NSW.
“In 2016 the minister for revenue and financial services, Kelly O’Dwyer, targeted the industry super funds saying the government wanted to “lift superannuation funds to at least the same standard as other financial services organisations like banks and life insurance companies”.”
Oh Dear. dA Mouth from daH South actually said that? Pure gold. 🙂
“Remember Labor will be the next Government even if they won all the Labor held inner city seats.
That’s just fact ….”
Err Guytaur, that’s not yet fact, and may not be.
As you are so fond of reminding everyone, you can have your own opinions, but not your own “facts”.
Oh dear!
guytaur @ #619 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 9:36 am
guytaur (Block)
Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 9:42 am
Comment #631
Hey homophobes.
I am gay get it I will shout it from the rooftops every time you bring it up.
guytaur @ #680 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 10:10 am
No, not at all, guytaur.
Fess – do you have a good link to Real Time – I looked everywhere and couldn’t get it up
@insidersabc tweets
“A very bad optic for Malcolm Turnbull”: @TurnbullMalcolm wants to avoid having to deliver emissions targets with Labor votes while malcontents in his own party vote against them, @markgkenny says #Insiders #auspol https://twitter.com/InsidersABC/status/1030972022824656898/video/1
Maybe Latin isn’t a dead language after all…
Cat
I was responding to those that brought it up. As your quote shows its a reply.
imacca @ #688 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 7:15 am
But the Industry funds weren’t making a profit for shareholders,
they were giving the money to their fund members.
Bastards!!!!!!! 🙂
In breaking news of far more importance than Guytaur and his obsessions:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-19/coles-stores-nationwide-shutdown/10137418?smid=abcnews-Twitter_Organic&WT.tsrc=Twitter_Organic&sf195820046=1
Victoria @ #686 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 8:11 am
I thought he was saying prepare to be disappointed more than anything when Mueller’s report comes out. His inference is that we all think the findings will directly implicate Trump, yet that isn’t what we’ve been saying.
I certainly do not trust Labor to ever “follow through on raising emissions standards” if they face the slightest political pressure. Do you Zoomster? Have they firmly indicated they will?
@_Saeen_
For those doing battle with weeds and blackberries a good brew to use is a mix of grazon and roundup. The grazon takes care of the woody and broad leaf stuff while the roundup flattens the rest. Spray a blackberry with grazon and half an hour later it’s already starting to wilt. Spray a scotch thistle with it and watch it droop in front of your eyes.
@guytaur –
I think you fail to grasp the fundamentals of democratic politics and the basic grievance that Labor supporters have of the Greens. At its heart successful winning politics is an art, not science, of creating policies that can be implemented AND endure. At times you seem to be able to rise above yourself – witness your acceptance of the real politics behind labor’s refugee policy, but often you revert to type.
Let’s start with the first comment you made about De Natalie’s interview on Insiders:
“He makes the point Labor has nothing to gain by appeasing the climate deniers.”
There is no such point to make. Implicit in that statement is an assumption that Labor is tempted to appease climate deniers. Wrong. Indeed THAT assumption runs through the Greens approach to dealing with Labor on climate change policy for the whole of the last decade “our way, or nothing”.
What Labor is currently doing, is what it has always done on climate change – seeking to find a broad enough consensus to ground a policy that progresses reform without ruling out future advances. Which is what the CRPS was about. Back in 2010 there were enough folk in the coalition who would have been prepared to accept the CRPS to make that policy stick as an enduring foundation for future progress. Indeed 3 liberals crossed the floor to vote for it (Malcolm in the House and two senators). The only thing missing were the virtue signalling greens. Why – because they wanted to “punish the polluters”, “make the polluters pay”. Daft because the “polluters” would have simply shifted the costs of that punishment onto the punters.
You then wax lyrical about how wonderful life was when the Greens were dictating terms to the Gillard government on climate change. Bollocks. I know it’s fashionable to blame Abbott, the LNP and CPG for lying about Gillard’s “no carbon tax” statement, but the reality is that punters were prepared to go along with that without much scrutiny because to them it dealt “truthy”. Gillard promised a people’s convention (brain fart) to find a new political consensus on climate change. What happened was that after the election the Greens and the Gillard inner circle nutted out a policy and presented it as a fait accompli. It wasn’t just climate deniers who were ripe to rebel against that. No matter how perfect the policy may seem to those in bohobo land in hindsight it had zero chance of gaining wide enough acceptance in the community to endure past the demise of the Gillard governemnt. It was a failure. It did lead to the policy vacuum and frankly other than Rudd blinking in early 2010, the Greens intransigence is largely to blame.
History is likely to repeat itself I fear. Witness Brandt’s demand that any future Labor energy policy must have a 90% carbon reduction by 2030 or the Greens will block it. The one and only group popping champagne corks over that announcement are the very climate deniers that your heroes in the Greens accuse Labor of appeasing.
Ultimately the real reason why Labor despise the Greens and their supporters is because Labor supporters believe that “progress” is a verb – a doing word, not just a position to take. In order to truly be progressive one must support “the good”, not just demand “the perfect”. That reaching and agreement with folk that may well have a slightly different view that you. Compromise.