BludgerTrack has been updated this week with new results from Newspoll and Essential Research, both of which provided leadership ratings as well as voting intention, and a Queensland-only federal poll result from YouGov Galaxy. None of this has made any difference to the two-party preferred reading, although both parties are down on the primary vote and One Nation is up. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains a seat in Victoria and loses one in New South Wales, with no change anywhere else. However, conspicuously poor personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll have knocked the edge off his surge in the BludgerTrack trend. Full results from the link below.
Now on to two areas of intense preselection activity this week, involving Labor in the Australian Capital Territory and Liberal in Tasmania.
The former produced an unexpected turn this week when Gai Brodtmann, who has held the seat of Canberra for Labor since 2010, announced she would not seek another term. This leaves the Territory’s vigorous Labor branch with three situations vacant: the lower house seats of Canberra and Bean, and the Senate seat that was vacated by Section 44 casualty Katy Gallagher in May and filled by David Smith.
Smith is now seeking preselection in Bean, which early appeared to be lined up for Brodtmann. Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports Smith has been formally endorsed by the Right, which appears to consider that the Right-aligned Brodtmann should be replaced with one of their own. However, the Left is throwing its weight behind Louise Crossman, manager at the Justice and Community Safety Directorate and former federal staffer and CFMEU industrial officer. Also in the field are Taimus Werner-Gibbings, factionally unaligned staffer to Lisa Singh (and formerly Andrew Leigh), and Gail Morgan, business management consultant and former campaign manager to Brodtmann.
Apparently in retaliation to the Left’s intrusion in Bean, the Right is sponsoring a challenge to Left-aligned Katy Gallagher for the Senate seat, in the person of Victoria Robertson, chief-of-staff to Gai Brodtmann. The race for the Canberra preselection was covered here last week; only the lower house seat of Fenner will be defended by a sitting member, in this case Andrew Leigh.
The news from Tasmania relates to Senate preselection for the Liberals, who are in the happy seat of having a likely Senate seat to spare thanks to the vagaries of the Section 44 affair. When the Senate was carved into short-term and long-term seats after the 2016 double dissolution, the Liberals originally got two seats with six-year terms and two with three-year terms, based on the order of election in which the twelve Senators were elected. However, in the recount after Jacqui Lambie’s disqualification, her party won its seat at a later point in the count, and the Liberals gained a third six-year term at their expense. Given the likelihood of their winning two seats, this means their four seats will likely become five after the election.
Eight candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection, with top position reportedly likely to go to Richard Colbeck, the only one out of the party’s four incumbents required to face the voters. Colbeck initially failed to win in 2016 from his fifth place on the Liberal ticket, to which he was demoted after heading the ticket in 2013. This resulted from a purge of Malcolm Turnbull loyalists led by conservative powerbroker Senator Eric Abetz, and inspired a surge of below-the-line votes for Colbeck, though not enough for him to overhaul the top four candidates. As fate would have it though, number five effectively became number four in the recount held after Section 44 prompted the resignation of Stephen Parry in November last year.
Assuming Colbeck takes top place, that will leave a further seven candidates chasing number two, plus the outside chance offered by number three. A newly confirmed starter is Brett Whiteley, who held a state seat for Braddon from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, gained the federal seat for the Liberals at the 2013 election, lost it at the 2016 election, and failed to win it back at last month’s by-election. But with the party under pressure to balance its all-male parliamentary contingent, he seems likely to struggle against Claire Chandler, risk advisory manager at Deloitte Australia and former electorate officer to David Bushby, who reportedly has the backing of Eric Abetz. Also in the field are Tanya Denison, a Hobart alderman; Wendy Summers, political staffer and the sister of David Bushby; Stacey Sheehan, Davenport Chamber of Commerce and Industry president; Kent Townsend, whom I take to be a developer from Launceston; and Craig Brakey, an Ulverstone businessman.
Finally, two other bits of polling I missed:
• Last week I noted Greenpeace had published a ReachTEL poll that included Victorian state voting intention numbers. I missed the more interesting fact that they also had one on federal voting intention from a sample of 3999. It’s getting on a bit now, having been conducted on July 30, but let it be noted that Labor led 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 36.9%, Labor 35.0%, Greens 12.0% and One Nation 8.1% (after exclusion of 5.2% undecided.
• The Courier-Mail had further results from last week’s YouGov Galaxy poll which, despite the newspaper’s best efforts to give an impression to the contrary, found respondents strongly opposed to the company tax cuts. Only 16% registered support for tax cuts for businesses with more than $50 million turnover, which the government has tried and failed to pass through the Senate. Twelve per cent favoured a response that excluded banks from the cuts, and 56% were opposed altogether.
guytaur says:
Sunday, August 19, 2018 at 2:12 pm
briefly
Sorry the facts keep getting in the way of your blame the Greens for everything hate.
Oh, I don’t blame the Gs for everything. I hold them accountable for their own actions and expressions. No more. No less.
When will they cease hostilities against Labor?
guytaur @ #944 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 2:19 pm
As you are so keen on facts, you are no doubt aware that global warming has already killed many more people than every nuclear accident to date combined.
And will continue do the same every year.
Every. Single. Year.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #948 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 2:24 pm
God on her Andrew
She does not look very large so it should be OK. Depends on how far she had to cycle. She probably lives in Parnell so not very far.
Well I hope this lie is swiftly dealt with. Labor should be rightly proud of the way the HIP and school halls programs kept people in jobs through the GFC. As a result we didn’t go into recession here like other countries did. I’d say those millions of dollars was money very well spent.
“She does not look very large so it should be OK.”
Did you miss the bits about her being 42 weeks pregnant and having had two previous miscarriages. Plus, cycling. On the road. In New Zealand.
DTT has clocked on. Does that mean that guytaur has clocked off?
don
The company I work for make a number of herbicides, mostly for large scale farm use .Surfactants are in all formulas but the amount is kept to the minimum as excessive foaming when mixing large quantities for farms etc is a real pain.
.
Re your Grazon. Active in it is picloram 🙂 ……………………………..
“During the Vietnam War, a mixture of picloram and other herbicides were combined to make Agent White and enhanced Agent Orange which was previously conducted by the British military during the Malayan Emergency. ”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Picloram
Andrew Earlwood
Ah yes an ad hominem attack. Just because you don’t like me pointing out to you using what if does not change fact.
How sad.
“I’d say those millions of dollars was money very well spent.”
Plus the fact that millions of homes are warmer in winter and cooler in summer. Also driving energy costs down.
Plus my 3 granddaughters (and a few million kids just like them) use a multipurpose hall every day instead of standing in the rain or getting heat stroke in summer …
AE
Labor, in cahoots with the Coalition and the MSM, demonised the Greens since their inception as a federated party, as “extreme”, a “fringe protest party” ……
Labor, in cahoots with the Coalition and the MSM, perpetuate the meme that only a majority government has the entitlement to govern.
The objective in doing so is to maintain the status quo of a political duopoly.
You reap what you sow.
However, increasingly, the citizenry are seeing through the charade of the major parties evidenced by the growing number of voters who choose to give their first preference to minor parties and independents.
The trend is in and long may it continue.
Mari R (@randlight) Tweeted:
https://t.co/fCVgIRWhAp surely B Katter’s grandfather was’nt Muslim https://twitter.com/randlight/status/1031036189413761024?s=17
One last try at Bob Katter’s grandfather’s application for naturalization
I don’t mean to enter the fray but despite what they say it’s inconceivable that the vast majority of Green voters actually believe that the two major parties are “as bad as each other”
“Not in a position to criticise”.
This is just lazy thinking. Firstly, the merit of an argument doesn’t depend on who is prosecuting it. Secondly, what about all the people who they represent? You mean they’re to be denied a voice? Our politicians are explicitly chosen and positioned to publicly debate issues regardless of their personal hypocrisy.
Im just not sure where I ever denied your precious fact that Gillard legislated a carbon pricing scheme that largely reflected the greens demands Guytaur.
Trees. Forrest. Missed. Much?
Word
Shiftaling.
Yes. Exactly. Facts count
The BER was successful. Yes there was waste but this was predominantly in how some States chose to tender and control the process and the speed in which it needed to be rolled out. South Australia did the best of all states because it kept control of the most of the process within the government. A lesson for how to build public infrastructure that has been ignored.
The project had two goals. 1 – build things in schools to benefit the schools (only 3% of schools complained). 2 – save a whole bunch of private engineering and construction companies from going bust and workers then losing their jobs and their accrued benefits. So while there is no doubt cream was skimmed off by some companies in some states, it kept them afloat…. the waste was not ummm completely wasted.
But ‘fess is right in that we are comparing apples and elephants. There was not the expertise to build those school buildings (especially as quickly as was needed to avert a snowballing crash in the economy) within government, however the expertise to handle funds into research and projects and grants to others for the Great Barrier Reef does.
Andrew Earlwood
So you think the Conservative MP’s made no demands. Interesting. Just blame it all on the Greens.
Anything rather than blame Abbott and the LNP
SK
‘…but the inner arsonist is never far from the surface.’
LOL.
Who is actually still in the count for how long Turnbull remains PM or when the next election will be?
Smoking some good hooch Peggy. Can I have some please?
“Increasingly” lols. The Greens have hit a high water mark of 10% support. The LNP have lost about 10% of their support to “up yours” voters sick of the stupid.
Woof. Woof. The caravan moves on.
“So you think the Conservative MP’s made no demands. Interesting. Just blame it all on the Greens.”
On the contrary. I’m sure they did. In the end the acid test was “does this policy advance towards a stated goal, without ruling out future progress?” The CRPS met that test, but the Greens did not.
The greens are doing an excellent of job of keeping the “duopoly” intact.
You got what people want, you get the votes.
Despite the diminished vote of the duopoly, the green vote has fallen in recent elections, those bastard duopolists.
poroti says:
Sunday, August 19, 2018 at 2:34 pm
don
The company I work for make a number of herbicides, mostly for large scale farm use .Surfactants are in all formulas but the amount is kept to the minimum as excessive foaming when mixing large quantities for farms etc is a real pain.
________________________
There is foaming, but not enough to make much difference, or cause problems. Curiously, the extra I put in these days does not create any noticeable increase in foaming from when I used to add it by the drop.
And aren’t there surfactants which do not cause foaming? I thought that foaming was a controllable feature of surfactants.
Dinna Killing Bill by talking about ‘trust’?
Trust Dinna?
Sure can’t!
I’ve stayed out of the this Greens v Labor slapping game as I generally see it as counter productive.
However, as someone who has worked on climate policy and measures for best part of a decade, as well as being a member of the ALP, I have a few observations.
My issue with the Greens as a party, is not their dogmatic purity, it’s the fact that they do try to act as if they’re above politics, but the Greens are a political party with the same kinds of ructions and factions as any other. Look at de Natali v Rhiannon?
As someone active and reality-based, I know that the Greens are, one way or the other, part of Labor’s future governing majorities – obviously, in the Senate being the most likely path. What is deeply frustrating, particularly as someone who considers themselves solidly progressive, is forced to deal with people who lay down purity-tests, to determine your progressive bona fides. It’s frustrating and offensive.
On climate, I go both ways. I believe their interjection in 2009-10 did help create a pathway when Abbott was able to exploit the uncertainty. What FUNDAMENTALLY undermined that direction was Rudd’s decision to not call a DD on climate in early 2010, when Abbott’s position was weak and not yet clear. When the time came to deal with them post-2010, it was a joint effort that fucked it up. Everyone knew full well that Gillard had pledged no carbon tax, the Greens made a carbon tax a core element of their agreement with Labor. But Labor accepted it and they and the Greens botched the sales job of that policy.
So while the carbon price and the supporting measures including the CFI, ARENA, CEFC were all largely successful and it did drive down emissions, the reality is, for a number of reasons, the way the policy came about, meant that it was destined to only last two full years and now we’re in situation where our capacity to restore that progress in the event of policy change is basically… in the toilet. Investment in renewables have crashed and remain, at best, anemic… many active sectors in carbon mitigation have largely shut up shop.
Despite good intentions, we’re here because of a number of significant political missteps going back to 2009. I’ve heard a lot of “well, if Labor only…” the reality is, the Greens have some responsibility for this too… it’s not all Labor’s fault that this was so easily attacked. If you’re going to get the responsibility to be part of the solution, you need to take responsibility when it goes tits-up.
On politics in general… this might be hard for people to accept, the Greens are still electoral poison in vast tracks of middle-Australia. The Greens have every right to run wherever they want, but the reality is, the Greens strength are within very narrow political and demographic boundaries. The Greens aren’t going to win in traditional suburban or regional bellwether seats. That’s not a criticism, but it is about understanding why the Greens are able to push their weight around in urban areas, where their position is disproportionately stronger to their overall position. Which shows a very smart political strategy, but the Greens have a clear MO. To run in progressive urban seats, and draw enough support away from Labor to make sure they’re able to extract concessions… it’s a smart strategy. But, for Labor, who are the alternative government, it puts them in a difficult situation. They have to run national campaigns, where they need to guard against the Greens coming after them in urban seats like Batman, Wills, Melbourne Ports, I think the new seat of Canberra will likely be a watermelon contest in the end… and then try to make sure they win those seats in suburbia they need to win to form Government.
There’s nothing wrong with wanting to do this, they’re a political party and they’re doing what political parties do, but it’s why Labor people get frustrated with the Greens. The perception that they’re all care and no responsibility and more than happy to lash Labor for not being “progressive” enough when they know full well why Labor cannot be as full blown left wing as they are.
Pegasus says:
Sunday, August 19, 2018 at 2:37 pm
….However, increasingly, the citizenry are seeing through the charade of the major parties evidenced by the growing number of voters who choose to give their first preference to minor parties and independents.
The Gs make common cause with the right-pop….with Hanson, the Shooters & Fishers, the Lib-dems, the Cories, the Katters…..and every other fragmentary “anti-hero voting up-yours” outfit.
We have serious problems. We need serious people to respond to them. The splitters thoroughly undermine our ability to find solutions and enact them. They are expressions of pessimism and reaction and really should give up.
BK@1:39pm
Topic: Bandt
Last year Mark Kenny wrote an article about Greens before Batman election but after Queensland election stating that how Greens are targeting about 5-10 federal seats to win at next election increasing it to about 25 seats in a decade’s time. It was a very supportive article on Greens.
After that election Greens had a string of disastrous results in Tasmanian and SA state elections and Batman federal by-election.
(All the above are facts. What I am about to write below speculation )
After the above results, Greens did internal polling for the Bandt seat of Melbourne. To their dismay they found that they can loose Melbourne. I think they did the internal polling after Bandt rant in parliament supporting Joyce ex-staffer but nothing in support of Joyce family.
Hence the frequent attacks on ALP by Bandt and Di Natali
don
Yes indeed some foam more than others but price/compatibility/ ability to handle crap water etc come into it. There are also anti-foam agents that are often added. They work a treat. But they too add to the cost. Gotta keep them profits up 🙂
@j341983 2:47pm.
Seriously good post. Especially like the following part (but the rest of it was top notch as well):
“On climate, I go both ways. I believe their interjection in 2009-10 did help create a pathway when Abbott was able to exploit the uncertainty. What FUNDAMENTALLY undermined that direction was Rudd’s decision to not call a DD on climate in early 2010, when Abbott’s position was weak and not yet clear. When the time came to deal with them post-2010, it was a joint effort that fucked it up. Everyone knew full well that Gillard had pledged no carbon tax, the Greens made a carbon tax a core element of their agreement with Labor. But Labor accepted it and they and the Greens botched the sales job of that policy.”
Here Endeth the Lesson. Let us pray.
Poroti:
Re your Grazon. Active in it is picloram ……………………………..
“During the Vietnam War, a mixture of picloram and other herbicides were combined to make Agent White and enhanced Agent Orange which was previously conducted by the British military during the Malayan Emergency. ”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Picloram
Picloram is a systemic herbicide used for woody plant control. Of course it would have been used in Vietnam, since it was effective and available.
Your point being, apart from raising the bogeyman of agent orange?
Ides of March.not logged in @ #975 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 12:41 pm
I’m still in for the latter: Sept.
poroti says:
Sunday, August 19, 2018 at 2:49 pm
don
Yes indeed some foam more than others but price/compatibility/ ability to handle crap water etc come into it. There are also anti-foam agents that are often added. They work a treat. But they too add to the cost. Gotta keep them profits up
_______________________
Sure, but I would have thought that cost of ingredients would be a minuscule part of the profit equation.
When generic roundup and grazon appeared, the price per drum was very much less than the branded product, which gives you a fair indication.
Re: election… if Turnbull thinks this BS will hold off until March let alone May… he’s kidding himself. Abbott et al have a taste for blood and I doubt it’s going away. I still think a late September/mid October election is likely.
AE,
I didn’t mention the Greens, did I.
May we have multiparty governance and proportional representation in the HoR in the not too distant future.
Bipartianship is not a problem whenever the major parties perceive a threat to their entrenched sense of entitlement to power.
Supporters of the two major parties are happy to ensure that only their two parties exist and are perceived as the only viable options to govern.
From little seeds, big things grow.
Or, the times, they are a changin’.
“I’m still in for the latter: Sept.”
I recon if Lucien Gilderoy survives Tuesday’s party room he might head straight to morning tea with Generalissimo Sir Pete … then again, knowing Brian he’ll likely stick around a day too long to avoid the shiv that’s coming his way.
Don
Surfactant compatibility is real problem for us. Farmers like to mix as many chemicals as possible into each mix so as to save on multiple applications.
Hi Peggy. Please can I have some of what you are on this afternoon?
“May we have multiparty governance and proportional representation in the HoR in the not too distant future.”
So fundamental constitutional change is about to happen. Riiiight.
Meanwhile back in the real universe. Yeah. nah. Not going to happen any time soon.
You may not have mentioned the Greens by name, but when you take out the Greens and ON, then at a national level where is the evidence that ‘the times are a changing’?
Sure, there are a lot of pissed off people out there. Mainly, its due to the fact that 10 years after the GFC a lot of folk feel like they are doing it as tough as what they were a decade ago. This is a global issue. However, the evidence that ‘the old firm’ are on the cusp of collapse is pretty thin on the ground.
Andrew Earlwood still batting for blame anyone other than the LNP and Abbott for climate change policy failure.
Note the difference between this and Medicare. It was not too soon or if only we weakened Medicare Gough Whitlam would not have had it scrapped.
Those same arguments apply to Abbott scrapping the carbon price as with Medicare.
To do blame Greens for climate policy failure is to say the LNP are correct. Complete with appeasing climate change deniers be in no illusion of this.
There is No what if here. There is just fact.
j341983 @ #989 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 12:54 pm
Well one thing is certain and that is that this week is going to be a minefield for Turnbull and Frydenberg to navigate.
I recon if Lucien Gilderoy survives Tuesday’s party room he might head straight to morning tea with Generalissimo Sir Pete … then again, knowing Brian he’ll likely stick around a day too long to avoid the shiv that’s coming his way.
I hate the prick bui I’m pretty sure I don’t hate him as much as you.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/queensland-renewable-energy-jobs-double-in-four-months-20171121-p4yx54.html
I know Malcolm Turnbull. I quite liked him.
But yeah. You might be right boomy. Fracker.
J341983@2:54pm
If MT lasts that long. Otherwise I Don’t know when we will have elections( not even May sounds reasonable)
Confessions @ #989 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 3:02 pm
Worth reposting …
shiftaling says:
Sunday, August 19, 2018 at 2:38 pm
I don’t mean to enter the fray but despite what they say it’s inconceivable that the vast majority of Green voters actually believe that the two major parties are “as bad as each other”
_____________________
You can tell they don’t, because of their preference allocation.
P1:
Ah yes, definitely a suitable image!
Doesnt work for me. That clown looks sad, the real clown has arrogance resting face syndrome.
Hatred is bullshit in the end
j341983
Thank you.