BludgerTrack has been updated this week with new results from Newspoll and Essential Research, both of which provided leadership ratings as well as voting intention, and a Queensland-only federal poll result from YouGov Galaxy. None of this has made any difference to the two-party preferred reading, although both parties are down on the primary vote and One Nation is up. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains a seat in Victoria and loses one in New South Wales, with no change anywhere else. However, conspicuously poor personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll have knocked the edge off his surge in the BludgerTrack trend. Full results from the link below.
Now on to two areas of intense preselection activity this week, involving Labor in the Australian Capital Territory and Liberal in Tasmania.
The former produced an unexpected turn this week when Gai Brodtmann, who has held the seat of Canberra for Labor since 2010, announced she would not seek another term. This leaves the Territory’s vigorous Labor branch with three situations vacant: the lower house seats of Canberra and Bean, and the Senate seat that was vacated by Section 44 casualty Katy Gallagher in May and filled by David Smith.
Smith is now seeking preselection in Bean, which early appeared to be lined up for Brodtmann. Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports Smith has been formally endorsed by the Right, which appears to consider that the Right-aligned Brodtmann should be replaced with one of their own. However, the Left is throwing its weight behind Louise Crossman, manager at the Justice and Community Safety Directorate and former federal staffer and CFMEU industrial officer. Also in the field are Taimus Werner-Gibbings, factionally unaligned staffer to Lisa Singh (and formerly Andrew Leigh), and Gail Morgan, business management consultant and former campaign manager to Brodtmann.
Apparently in retaliation to the Left’s intrusion in Bean, the Right is sponsoring a challenge to Left-aligned Katy Gallagher for the Senate seat, in the person of Victoria Robertson, chief-of-staff to Gai Brodtmann. The race for the Canberra preselection was covered here last week; only the lower house seat of Fenner will be defended by a sitting member, in this case Andrew Leigh.
The news from Tasmania relates to Senate preselection for the Liberals, who are in the happy seat of having a likely Senate seat to spare thanks to the vagaries of the Section 44 affair. When the Senate was carved into short-term and long-term seats after the 2016 double dissolution, the Liberals originally got two seats with six-year terms and two with three-year terms, based on the order of election in which the twelve Senators were elected. However, in the recount after Jacqui Lambie’s disqualification, her party won its seat at a later point in the count, and the Liberals gained a third six-year term at their expense. Given the likelihood of their winning two seats, this means their four seats will likely become five after the election.
Eight candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection, with top position reportedly likely to go to Richard Colbeck, the only one out of the party’s four incumbents required to face the voters. Colbeck initially failed to win in 2016 from his fifth place on the Liberal ticket, to which he was demoted after heading the ticket in 2013. This resulted from a purge of Malcolm Turnbull loyalists led by conservative powerbroker Senator Eric Abetz, and inspired a surge of below-the-line votes for Colbeck, though not enough for him to overhaul the top four candidates. As fate would have it though, number five effectively became number four in the recount held after Section 44 prompted the resignation of Stephen Parry in November last year.
Assuming Colbeck takes top place, that will leave a further seven candidates chasing number two, plus the outside chance offered by number three. A newly confirmed starter is Brett Whiteley, who held a state seat for Braddon from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, gained the federal seat for the Liberals at the 2013 election, lost it at the 2016 election, and failed to win it back at last month’s by-election. But with the party under pressure to balance its all-male parliamentary contingent, he seems likely to struggle against Claire Chandler, risk advisory manager at Deloitte Australia and former electorate officer to David Bushby, who reportedly has the backing of Eric Abetz. Also in the field are Tanya Denison, a Hobart alderman; Wendy Summers, political staffer and the sister of David Bushby; Stacey Sheehan, Davenport Chamber of Commerce and Industry president; Kent Townsend, whom I take to be a developer from Launceston; and Craig Brakey, an Ulverstone businessman.
Finally, two other bits of polling I missed:
• Last week I noted Greenpeace had published a ReachTEL poll that included Victorian state voting intention numbers. I missed the more interesting fact that they also had one on federal voting intention from a sample of 3999. It’s getting on a bit now, having been conducted on July 30, but let it be noted that Labor led 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 36.9%, Labor 35.0%, Greens 12.0% and One Nation 8.1% (after exclusion of 5.2% undecided.
• The Courier-Mail had further results from last week’s YouGov Galaxy poll which, despite the newspaper’s best efforts to give an impression to the contrary, found respondents strongly opposed to the company tax cuts. Only 16% registered support for tax cuts for businesses with more than $50 million turnover, which the government has tried and failed to pass through the Senate. Twelve per cent favoured a response that excluded banks from the cuts, and 56% were opposed altogether.
Greens voted with Coalition Party on blocking the Malaysia solution to refugees.
Greens voted with Coalition Party against CPRS.
Greens now attacking Labor because they think Labor is working with Coalition Party.
I share the Nats Deputy Leader’s confusion. Cause while we may think Turnbull is PM, he certainly is behaving as though the Abbottobods are the ones in charge!
I agreed with Cassidy on Insiders this morning. Why worry about the ‘growing’ backbench revolt, when a) only a max of 4 possibly 5 of them are rusted onto crossing the floor in opposition, and b) Liberals rarely cross the floor in actuality. The govt is best dealing with Labor on this and ignoring the malcontent rump.
It might be informative to think about what might come of all this in fighting inside the Liberal Party. Ideally, a weak and divided Liberal Party headed by a wounded and ineffectual leader in Malcolm would struggle on until election day and a big defeat.
However, Rupert has apparently thrown his lot in with the rebels and will be supporting them in his outlets. But what are they trying to achieve?
I think that it might be something like a repeat of Abbott’s coup in 2009, only this time in Government. Maybe try to emulate Trump in some ways. A revitalised, hard right populist Government campaigning on reduced immigration, tough on terrorism and crime, withdrawal from Paris, build and rejuvenate coal fired power stations, force down power prices (whether they can do it or not), jobs’n’growth, anti-union, culture war stuff, blowing hard on the dogwhistle, worship of the military. That plus some cash splashes to critical groups, e.g. farmers, marginal electorates. The defeated moderates to acquiesce as they did in 2009. Maybe led by Dutton or a resurrected Abbott with Dutton as deputy, or maybe Bishop as a malleable figurehead with Deputy Dutton. Bishop would be given the full boosting treatment by Murdoch.
The rest of the plan would be deferred until after the election – big cuts to health, education and social security, sell the ABC, pension age to 70, dismantle Medicare…
@Steve777
It’s 2009 all over again,
The right are plague to our country.
Oh FFS. I give up.
In a completely non-serious comment, the idea of any politician (in this case Turnbull) being massless tickled the inner physicist, coz then he’d have to travel at the speed of light just to survive. 😛
Steve777:
I have appreciation for PvO’s column yesterday in that this instability over the NEG is really about Abbott’s attempts to get back the leadership. Not by challenging MT pre-election and winning, but wrecking any chances the govt has of being re-elected in the first place, and then being there in the wake to reclaim the leadership in time for a Labor govt’s first re-election pitch.
PvO believes that if a Turnbull govt is re-elected MT will be able to retire as PM on his own terms, and Abbott being the age he is, will be swept out with the next generation broom. This in essence, is his only shot at keeping his leadership ambitions alive.
I should add that if the govt is tossed and Turnbull retires (as is almost certain to happen), Abbott is likely to be resurrected to the front bench. That will enable him to once again build a profile on which to launch a leadership return.
That’s the opinion of PvO FWIW.
JM
Adding urea can help but rather than ppm the levels required are more like 1-2%.If you have hard water adding ammonium sulphate before the glyphosate will help. Bonus being more killing and fertilising at the same time 🙂 According to the FAO 4-8 kg of Urea or Ammonium sulphate added to the glyphosate seems the go.
Confessions
I have gone off of PvO as a source of comment a bit. His calling socialists nazis was a way wrong call.
He has been defending himself every day ever since instead of admitting he got it wrong. All to defend Paul Murray’s original comment to that effect.
This is how much media has lost touch with reality they really think they can say the Sky is blue when its raining. (yes i used the cap s in sky deliberately 🙂 )
During Sean’s (and my) time in PNG, Somare had him deported because the PNG Government took umbrage at the reporting he did about ‘incidents’ involving the Indonesian Military on the PNG/ Irian Jaya (Papua) Border.
After a while he was allowed back into the country and life went on. His wife Cathy is a Manus woman.
Sean’s Book “Papua New Guinea” covers the period up to the early 1990’s and I recall buying a copy in Steamships Supermarket one saturday morning nursing nursing a hangover and having Sean sign it for me. Its dated 29/9/90.
I’ve just looked at the book again for the first time in many years.
He cites as one of his proudest achievements as having played for and Captained the PNG National Rugby League side, The Kumuls. Rugby League is the National sport and almost a religion up there.
As a reporter he was highly respected and you seem to see him wherever you went.
Old School ABC.
But thats long gone and we are all poorer for it.
Abbott forever blew his chances at leadership with his terrible prime ministership. He WAS terrible, that is why his own party tossed him.
They will not go there again regardless of what his supporters want.Abbott knows this.
He is out to destroy Turnbull nothing more nothing less.
sonar
Totally agree with you. We don’t call him the wrecker for nothing.
Hopefully he will wreck his way to a Labor government this time. 🙂
What flag is Cottrell holding?
sonar @ #1064 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 1:33 pm
Not much difference to Turnbull, after all the policies aren’t much different! 🙂
“The Prime Minister used Facebook to reveal a plan to impose default energy prices on power companies, and imposing tough penalties on providers which don’t bring costs down.”
Socialist!
You are looking at this through the prism of today when the coalition is in govt. No way Abbott will replace Turnbull.
But if they are booted out of office it will be a very different landscape. And Abbott was a highly effective LOTO.
I’m not saying it will happen, but I have some sympathy for PvO’s view.
I should add on PvO he did his defence of Sky’s narrative after Murdoch arrived back in the country
Confessions @ #1066 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 4:38 pm
The party Room of the Libs will tire of the never ending sniping. Were Abbott to replace Turnbull then the sniping would begin again as it did before. Marginal seat holders know that Abbott is not a pathway to re-election.
This is why Abbott is unacceptable.
My guess is Dutton is a stalking horse for someone else. Probably from Sydney.
No one will want to see to old elephants barking at the moon.
That flag is probably the UPF flag.
And variations on this.
GG
If it wasn’t for her history I would say it was Julie Bishop.
@BiGD….Yep, agree about the policies but in truth Turnbull has listened to the nutters too much.
For a supposed minority in the party they certainly have a lot of imput and control over the agenda…..
I know he is not, but Turnbull was seen by many voters as a moderate Liberal.That is now being seen as a sham.
Let’s do the ScoMotion!
GG:
Maybe. But I can see how PvO is anticipating Abbott’s thinking.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1072 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 4:47 pm
Everybody’s doing a brand new dunce!
SK:
That looks like it.
A little confirmation?
But no one seems to know who’s the heir to the throne.
Remember how Abbott came through from behind?
I agree that Abbott is unlikely to return, at least to the PMship. Maybe Home Affairs Minister. As for the top job, Dutton will be in there as deputy, biding his time. Maybe Bishop could be a popular front for a powerful Deputy, rather like Bush Jr and Cheney.
@lizzie……
If they dump Turnbull they will be held up to the same ridicule as the ALP were and deservedly so. They wouldn’t be so stupid…..or will they…?
I hope they do as it means there WILL be a change of government at the next election.
I am of the opinion that the reason the coalition were returnd….just….was because of Turnbull.
With the numpties off the leash a landslide to the ALP is on the cards.
Late Riser.
I speculate that at the heart of Trumble is an incompetence so massive that it has collapsed into a singularity. It’s not so much that he’s abandoned everything he ever stood for, rather it’s a form of political red shift where he looks more and more RWNJ as he spirals in towards the black hole of his ambition. He won’t go out with a bang or a whimper, just that he’ll get red shifted so far as to become completely invisible when he hits the event horizon.
I know its the Daily Mail. Still interesting.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-6068901/Eating-carbs-moderation-lowers-risk-early-death.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline
That is a beautiful image you just painted ratsak. You are a true artist.
Wayne Swan tweets
The LNP in Queensland has only one trick in its arsenal – playing the race card. Peter Dutton blew his race dogwhistle all the way through the Longman by-election and now the panicky LNP wants him to blow it even harder #auspol #insiders
Who is Eddy Jokovich?
Word mechanic. I like that.
Here’s a story of humbug.
https://targetsdown.blogspot.com/2016/06/katter-undone-by-his-own-hand.html
Is there anywhere I can get latex Peter Dutton masks made in time for Halloween?
At the greengrocer.
boomy1 @ #1085 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 5:09 pm
Google’s your friend.
Get your PD masks now.
As much as I would love a spill … I just don’t see where the numbers are to even make a half-hearted shot across the bow a viable option.
Running to the GG really feels like the best option to shut this down.
You’re a shocker poroti!
Is Turnbull going to subdue the energy companies the same way he did the banks, by inviting the bosses up to Canberra once a year for a jolly good chat?
Anyone in the market for a harbour bridge ? 😀
.
“Malcolm Turnbull insists NEG changes are about electricity bills and not his job”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/malcolm-turnbull-to-cap-power-prices-report/news-story/278f8f4c7fe987c830c00509c23821ef
Ratsak @4:56PM: Good stuff.
Is Turnbull going to subdue the energy companies the same way he did the banks, by inviting the bosses up to Canberra once a year for a jolly good chat?”
Maybe he could threaten them with a Royal Commission. I’m sure they’ve got a lot to hide.
Seems like Labor and Turnbull are on NEG unity ticket