BludgerTrack has been updated this week with new results from Newspoll and Essential Research, both of which provided leadership ratings as well as voting intention, and a Queensland-only federal poll result from YouGov Galaxy. None of this has made any difference to the two-party preferred reading, although both parties are down on the primary vote and One Nation is up. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains a seat in Victoria and loses one in New South Wales, with no change anywhere else. However, conspicuously poor personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull from Newspoll have knocked the edge off his surge in the BludgerTrack trend. Full results from the link below.
Now on to two areas of intense preselection activity this week, involving Labor in the Australian Capital Territory and Liberal in Tasmania.
The former produced an unexpected turn this week when Gai Brodtmann, who has held the seat of Canberra for Labor since 2010, announced she would not seek another term. This leaves the Territory’s vigorous Labor branch with three situations vacant: the lower house seats of Canberra and Bean, and the Senate seat that was vacated by Section 44 casualty Katy Gallagher in May and filled by David Smith.
Smith is now seeking preselection in Bean, which early appeared to be lined up for Brodtmann. Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports Smith has been formally endorsed by the Right, which appears to consider that the Right-aligned Brodtmann should be replaced with one of their own. However, the Left is throwing its weight behind Louise Crossman, manager at the Justice and Community Safety Directorate and former federal staffer and CFMEU industrial officer. Also in the field are Taimus Werner-Gibbings, factionally unaligned staffer to Lisa Singh (and formerly Andrew Leigh), and Gail Morgan, business management consultant and former campaign manager to Brodtmann.
Apparently in retaliation to the Left’s intrusion in Bean, the Right is sponsoring a challenge to Left-aligned Katy Gallagher for the Senate seat, in the person of Victoria Robertson, chief-of-staff to Gai Brodtmann. The race for the Canberra preselection was covered here last week; only the lower house seat of Fenner will be defended by a sitting member, in this case Andrew Leigh.
The news from Tasmania relates to Senate preselection for the Liberals, who are in the happy seat of having a likely Senate seat to spare thanks to the vagaries of the Section 44 affair. When the Senate was carved into short-term and long-term seats after the 2016 double dissolution, the Liberals originally got two seats with six-year terms and two with three-year terms, based on the order of election in which the twelve Senators were elected. However, in the recount after Jacqui Lambie’s disqualification, her party won its seat at a later point in the count, and the Liberals gained a third six-year term at their expense. Given the likelihood of their winning two seats, this means their four seats will likely become five after the election.
Eight candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection, with top position reportedly likely to go to Richard Colbeck, the only one out of the party’s four incumbents required to face the voters. Colbeck initially failed to win in 2016 from his fifth place on the Liberal ticket, to which he was demoted after heading the ticket in 2013. This resulted from a purge of Malcolm Turnbull loyalists led by conservative powerbroker Senator Eric Abetz, and inspired a surge of below-the-line votes for Colbeck, though not enough for him to overhaul the top four candidates. As fate would have it though, number five effectively became number four in the recount held after Section 44 prompted the resignation of Stephen Parry in November last year.
Assuming Colbeck takes top place, that will leave a further seven candidates chasing number two, plus the outside chance offered by number three. A newly confirmed starter is Brett Whiteley, who held a state seat for Braddon from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, gained the federal seat for the Liberals at the 2013 election, lost it at the 2016 election, and failed to win it back at last month’s by-election. But with the party under pressure to balance its all-male parliamentary contingent, he seems likely to struggle against Claire Chandler, risk advisory manager at Deloitte Australia and former electorate officer to David Bushby, who reportedly has the backing of Eric Abetz. Also in the field are Tanya Denison, a Hobart alderman; Wendy Summers, political staffer and the sister of David Bushby; Stacey Sheehan, Davenport Chamber of Commerce and Industry president; Kent Townsend, whom I take to be a developer from Launceston; and Craig Brakey, an Ulverstone businessman.
Finally, two other bits of polling I missed:
• Last week I noted Greenpeace had published a ReachTEL poll that included Victorian state voting intention numbers. I missed the more interesting fact that they also had one on federal voting intention from a sample of 3999. It’s getting on a bit now, having been conducted on July 30, but let it be noted that Labor led 52-48, from primary votes of Coalition 36.9%, Labor 35.0%, Greens 12.0% and One Nation 8.1% (after exclusion of 5.2% undecided.
• The Courier-Mail had further results from last week’s YouGov Galaxy poll which, despite the newspaper’s best efforts to give an impression to the contrary, found respondents strongly opposed to the company tax cuts. Only 16% registered support for tax cuts for businesses with more than $50 million turnover, which the government has tried and failed to pass through the Senate. Twelve per cent favoured a response that excluded banks from the cuts, and 56% were opposed altogether.
I personally love popcorn, especially homemade, fresh and warm.
The particular variety of corn is vital, most corn makes bland popcorn with little flavour or texture. A local organic store has the best, but even there it varies over the year. When I get a good batch, I go back and buy a couple of kilos to last a while.
Start with Ghee, from the local Indian store, when it reaches smoke point add a little coconut oil, changes the fragrance a lot. Add corn and pop.
Plenty of salt and a little freshly ground pepper and it is unresistible.
A real current Qld barrister? That’ll take the heat off Charlie Waterstreet: https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/richard-roxburgh-any-day-i-dont-hear-the-name-charles-waterstreet-is-good-20171027-gz9efk.html
While we’re all wasting time waiting for news, has this happened to anyone else?
I saw that C@tmomma had replied to boomy1, but I did not see the original comment by boomy1. I went looking. It wasn’t there. So I refreshed the page and it appeared, though numbered 1 higher than in C@tmomma’s Reply. I am running Opera, with ar’s fine C+ plugin.
guytaur @ #1216 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 7:30 pm
Agreed. Serious media reform is one of the half dozen must dos for the next Labor government.
One of the reasons I am relatively optimistic about the next election is that Labor has managed to stay clearly ahead in the polls despite an almost endless barrage of toxic shit flinging from Murdoch.
If Labor can win without Murdoch, they are in charge. They should simply not return his calls nor ever mention him by name.
One reason I am so angry about what happened to the NBN is because, done right, it will go a long way to democratising public debate space, which in turn will go a long way to defanging demented media plutocrats. Which, of course, is one reason why Murdoch needed it crippled.
Stop Press: Malcolm has just announced that the NEG has finally be agreed at tonight’s dinner. Provisions include:
– 100% of Australia’s electricity to be produced by coal by 2030.
– New Coal-fired power stations to be built on current wind farms and solar energy energy collection arrays
– Subsidies to be provided to enable householders to tear up home solar panels
– Snowy 2.0 to be replaced by a new Coal Fired mega power station
– New channels be dug through the Barrier Reef to enable coal exports to move more quickly
– $2 billion to build a coal fired rocket to launch satellites to gather evidence proving that climate change is crap
– $5 billion handed to Adani to build their mega mine, railway and whatever else they need, with a 20 year tax holiday
– $20 billion to a consortium of Liberal mates for research into how we can suck the carbon out of coal before we burn it. If there’s a problem with the climate, it’s all sorted.
The plan will be put to Parliament on Tuesday, with 10 minutes allowed for debate. Malcolm demands that Labor accept the plan unconditionally.
Take your execution like a man you disgusting filthy louse.
qft
Turnbull won’t make the nutjobs happy unless he agrees to build the world’s biggest coal-fired plant on top of a mosque.
During prayers
They should be up to the raw onions soon.
I wonder if Turnbull’s employed any food tasters for tonight’s dinner.
Late Riser @ #1253 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 6:24 pm
Yes that has happened to me previously too.
Jon Kudlelka tweets
Albo to defect to the libs and then roll Turnbull.
Don’t tell me he gave another speech.
I think Turnbull will announce money for coal plants and will attempt to get the emissions target back as a legislated figure, possibly even as an upper limit. He can’t withdraw from Paris and I think he can argue that to his backbench, but promise everything else.
It is clear the Friday promise on a regulated emissions figure was a big mistake and only made things worse.
Thanks Confessions. I guess I’ll just hit F5 every now and again. 😐
Boerwar @ #769 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 11:20 am
I know it works and yes I’ve read the instructions and to top it off the mix I used was devised by experts in the field. Don, maybe you are not getting the ratio’s right. For a long a lasting effect I’d recommend what the Hydro use around their poles (at least I would if I could find out what it is). Another variation on the theme especially when it comes to fence lines or around stock yards etc. is a mix of diesel and sulfuric acid. I know people are going to jump up n down about that last bit but I’d rather do the job once in a decade as opposed to every friggin year. So now I’ll get back in my box. Be nice to each other people.
Malcolm sets to work digging a coal mine for his new super efficient cheap electricity power station:
Who the f… does Malcolm talk to?
Lucien Aye
trump exclusive:
My first 100 days had way more day’s than Obama’s
That cracked me up.
Speaking of The Shovel, they have a nice article on the softer side of dutton.
Oh oh!
https://twitter.com/peterkemplawyer/status/1031129966065344512
@BK – if it’s about principle, it shouldn’t be about anything else, surely?
BK @ #1267 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 6:54 pm
LOL! Please, please, PLEASE Liberal partyroom switch out Turnbull for Dutton!!
Such a shame, Mal displaying such early promise, his personal indicia marking him out to be a Menzies.
That it’s gone done hill ever since is his fault entirely, attempting to gel his brand of liberalism with the dark forces was never going to work.
I’m unsure that the piss-up at the Lodge tonight is going to work – Faust!
BK.
I didn’t know Christmas came in August.
Poll Bludger Federal Election Sweep
Update per request of IoM earlier today.
Name Prediction
Briefly 4/08/2018
Taz 11/08/2018
Tom 11/08/2018
j341983 18/08/2018
C@tmomma 25/08/2018
Grimace 1/09/2018
Confessions 1/09/2018
Ophuph Hucksake 8/9/2018
WarrenPeace 8/9/2018
ag0044 15/9/2018
Rossmcg 20/10/2018
Dan Gulberry 27/10/2018
Steve777 2/3/2019
Mundo 2/3/2019
Jeffemu 16/3/2019
Hugoaugogo 4/05/2019
Tristo 18/5/2019
Ante Meridian 25/05/2019
John Reidy 25/05/2019
Asha Leu 25/5/2019
BK 1/6/2019
If you wish to join email your prediction to sjapplin@hotmail.com and your email will be deleted after your prediction is recorded. I’ll try to keep track of any predictions posted in the thread if you’d prefer not to email me, without a guarantee it’ll be included.
All forms of cheating and capitalising on insider knowledge are encouraged. The prize is gloating rights.
@Everyone, shouldn’t we all add Dutton as friends on twitter and encourage him on? I feel like he needs our support at this most important time.
“Voters are rejecting us because we’ve hamstrung our moderate figurehead and become too right-wing! What do we do?
I know, let’s be even more right-wing!”
Donald Trump tweets
The failing @nytimes wrote a Fake piece today implying that because White House Councel Don McGahn was giving hours of testimony to the Special Councel, he must be a John Dean type “RAT.” But I allowed him and all others to testify – I didn’t have to. I have nothing to hide……
Labor Senator Kristina Keneally said Labor could not make any commitments because it did not know what version of the NEG would come out of the Coalition party room on Tuesday.
“The government is hopelessly divided, it is at war with itself,” she said. “I don’t care how many dinners they have, let’s hope there are no sharp knives there.
a r @ #1274 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 8:58 pm
That’s where you are wrong. I’ve got some friends who are Liberal party members, they think Turnbull is a commie. They really think the LNP polls are bad because Turnbull has taken the party left.
First question to Labor on The National Wrap.
Do you have the same energy policy as the LNP?
NEG: National Entertainment Guarantee
Paul Krugman tweets
If you wonder why the tax cut is falling so flat as a campaign issue — except for Democrats who are running *against* it — consider what we’ve seen so far. Voters may not know the statistics, but they know that they’re not seeing gains 2/ https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1031134873858105344/photo/1
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
45s46 seconds ago
#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 45 (-4) ALP 55 (+4) #auspol
KK is going great guns. Her work on the GBRF gift has been exceptional.
Zoidlord @ #1282 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 7:08 pm
Seriously?
Zing, spill time!
@Ziod… was about to post this.
It hasn’t been that long since an Ipsos and that number is BRU-TAL.
zoidlord
That’ll cause a few kerfuffles at the dinner!
How very timely from the ghost.
Ghost Who Votes tweets
@Matt_in_London The previous #Ipsos poll was conducted 18-21 July.
55/45 to Labor will certainly energise the Abbottobods.
Parliament this week should be a cracker!
I wonder what the PPM will be.
@Confessions
Including the Knighthoods.
Ghost only has 2PP currently. A Newspoll would be nice to back up Ipsos.
Bevan Shields
Verified account @BevanShields
3h3 hours ago
Tonight’s cabinet dinner has moved from The Lodge to inside Parliament House. I believe there were some concerns about cabinet ministers having to walk/be driven through an expected media pack outside the PM’s home #auspol
Confessions @ #1248 Sunday, August 19th, 2018 – 8:19 pm
I really find it abhorrent that politicians stopped doing what what was best for the country and the world and started satisfying the vested interests who fund them instead.
Money used to be donated to political parties because people or companies or groups in the community supported the positions that you took as a government. Nowadays that position has been reversed and political parties do the bidding of those who donate to them.
It’s the wrong way around.
That’s an event horizon.
Macolm would be looking very pale right now.
[‘Labor Senator Kristina Keneally said…’]
She’s prosecuting the case of the of the GBRF fiasco extremely well. She should be on the front bench.
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
25s26 seconds ago
#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 33 (-6) ALP 35 (+1) GRN 13 (+1) #auspol
#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 45 (-4) ALP 55 (+4) #auspol
Wow!
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
26s26 seconds ago
#Ipsos Poll Turnbull: Approve 46 (-9) Disapprove 48 (+10) #auspol