BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA

An overdue review of the BludgerTrack situation, as a new poll from YouGov Galaxy supports its finding that the Labor swing in Western Australia is back to sub-stratospheric levels.

The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.

There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.

We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.

Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.

Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.

At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.

Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.

Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,976 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  1. “Mr Hodge said retail funds operated by the big banks had a far greater number of problems than industry superannuation funds.

    Mr Hodge said the examples of misconduct filed by industry super funds were “extremely minimalist” when compared to issues identified by retail superannuation funds.

    No executives from the CFMMEU-backed industry fund CBUS will be called to give evidence after the royal commission reviewed its submissions.”

    On the RC enquiry into Super Funds. Libs just cant pull a trick can they. 🙂

  2. ar
    “Not objecting, more confused about why a liberal media outlet would think it’s in their interest (or the interest of their preferred side of politics) to lead the pack with the Husar story.”
    That’s simple; it sells therefore it makes money which is the primary reason any company exists.

  3. CC – as Ratsak says , Malcolm is obviously hoping that the States will put him out of his misery before his party-room does. It will be like police-assisted suicide.

  4. imacca

    No executives from the CFMMEU-backed industry fund CBUS will be called to give evidence after the royal commission reviewed its submissions.”

    Zanetti will be heartbroken.

  5. Diogenes @ #351 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 3:40 pm

    ar
    “Not objecting, more confused about why a liberal media outlet would think it’s in their interest (or the interest of their preferred side of politics) to lead the pack with the Husar story.”
    That’s simple; it sells therefore it makes money which is the primary reason any company exists.

    Not so simple.
    Barnaby Joyce revelations before the by election were not aired because they couldn’t be verified or some such bullshit.

  6. @P1

    LOL you are obviously an advocate for Nuclear power over everything else.

    I posted a link earlier due to heatwaves nuclear power needs to shut down.

  7. Poroti

    cBus has been one of the best performing super funds. And it was the fibs and banks who were doing all they could to get their grubby paws on it

  8. Ok, so you can actually be a social liberal but prefer right wing economics. Some people identify as progressives and are advocates for feel-good issues like marriage equality and asylum seekers but benefit from things like conservative tax cuts. In fact, often the social liberalism helps them feel like one of the “good guys” – this is commonly called virtue-signalling (although the right and shitty groups like MRAs have co-opted it to mean “caring about social issues at all”)

    Furthermore, you will see some of these self-proclaimed leftists discuss socialism, quote Marx and condemn the ever-nebulous spectre that is neoliberalism, yet they’ve never supported anything that helps do something practical to fight economic inbalance (other than giving some money to a charity drive or something.)

    Unfortunately, political opinions aren’t black and white. But upper-middle class leftists (not all – there are plenty of genuine ones) aren’t as substantially progressive as they think they are.

  15. Fess

    One very good reason that Bill Maher omitted was the funnelling of Russian Money into the coffers of the GOP.and the NRA.
    Strangely all of a sudden the NRA are cash strapped.
    Wonder why?

  17. I was in the old AGEST Government employee’s fund which got taken over by AustralianSuper, now the biggest of the not-for-bank-profits-industry-funds. Great returns, mostly ethical investments, safe as houses. Certainly don’t want grubby banker shills mandated for the excellent board.

  18. Looks more like Turnbull allowed himself to get leveraged by the GBR mob:

    ‘Private sector leverage’ for reef

    2:38PMRACHEL BAXENDALE
    Josh Frydenberg says the Great Barrier Reef Foundation was given $444m because of its ability to “leverage the private sector”. (Oz headline)

  19. Zoidlord @ #355 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 3:49 pm

    @P1

    LOL you are obviously an advocate for Nuclear power over everything else.

    I’m not, but I probably should be given that nuclear is less damaging than burning coal.

    I posted a link earlier due to heatwaves nuclear power needs to shut down.

    Read the articles you posted. The plants are being shut down because (except in the case of one old plant) the heatwave means the temperature of their cooling water output would breach the plant’s local environmental limits, not because the plant itself is unsafe.

    And what caused the heatwave?

    Burning coal 🙁

    So the solution is to shut down nuclear and keep burning coal? Very smart!

  20. Sprocket ~ says: Monday, August 6, 2018 at 3:59 pm

    At a Trump rally, the rusted on..

    **********************************************

    The rise and ……. the obvious decline of the American Empire……. is on show with these two clowns …..

  22. How does giving a huge chunk of boodle to the reef clowns help them leverage more money. Surely it would incline people to NOT contribute.

  23. “Ok, so you can actually be a social liberal but prefer right wing economics. “

    That’s where a lot of people thought Malcolm stood, and some still think that.

  25. It doesn’t matter how inadequate the NEG is, or whether it locks in those inadequacies for a decade, the CPG are already gearing up to give Labor a good bashing for not supporting it. And look who is supporting it, all those vested interests who dug in and and are only now grudgingly supporting action because the proposed action is manifestly inadequate. Their support is not a sign of good policy, quite the opposite.

    I expect the likes of KM will hold out for a bit until the CPG has formed a consensus on the narrative, then they’ll join the end of the queue.

  28. Labor should suggest to the muppets who insist there has to be consensus now, that Australia will reach one next year.

  30. Like it or not Labor has nailed its colours to the mast on the NEG.

    Sensibly they are not going to sign up to an open ended contract. They are not going to do the equivalent of going in to remove a tonsil and coming out with an arm or leg removed.

    This is the basic problem for Turnbull. He is in the same position Rudd was in. The problem to fixing a bipartisan policy is exactly the same as Rudd faced. The LNP right wing wrecking everything.

    As the policy HAS TO meet the Paris targets for Turnbull its a real price on fossil fuels or letting the right wing rule. All can see it. He got elected by one seat promising to reign in the right wing. Climate policy was one of the key factors. Thats without looking at all the stuff ups since.

  32. The NRA is suing the state of New York, blaming them for its money woes. Not a happy time for the gunslingers. They’re probably expecting Trump to bail them out.

    Washington: The National Rifle Association claims it’s facing deep financial problems and it might go broke in a lawsuit that blames its problems on the state of New York.

    The gun-rights organisation said it may soon have to stop producing its magazines and its video streaming service, NRAtv, because of actions by the state of New York, which the NRA accused of running a “blacklisting campaign.”

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/north-america/nra-claims-it-s-in-a-financial-crisis-that-threatens-its-existence-20180804-p4zvji.html

  35. P1

    Yes, teachers do teacher training for a reason. Being able to assess whether a student is working to their full potential – and how to get them to do so – is one of the skills developed.

  40. meher baba @ #246 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 10:51 am

    guytaur: “MB
    When religion tries to enforce its will on other people yes.
    You are entitled to your belief. You are not entitled to force it on other people
    That includes denying good and services and employment of a person based on your belief.
    The balance is held at where the greatest harm to society and individuals is.”

    But it’s not only religion which tries to enforce its will on other people. I’m sure you are very familiar with the Masterpiece cake shop vs Colorado Civil Rights Commission case, in which the US Supreme Court ended up finding in favour of the cake shop. Who was trying to impose their will on whom in this case? There were lots of cake shop owners in Denver Colorado that were happy to make a wedding cake for a same sex marriage. Why did the Colorado Civil Rights Commission decide that it was reasonable to pick on this particular one and, effectively, try to force him to make such a cake when it was against his personal religious beliefs?

    As reported in the Guardian article, the ACTU is looking to have the general exemption of religious bodies from some aspects of anti-discrimination legislation to be ““narrowed significantly so that they can only apply when it’s an inherent requirement of the job.” This presumably means that courts will get to decide in future what is/isn’t an “inherent requirement” of a job. And courts could make some highly challenging rulings, eg: what if a court was presented with the argument that it is not an “inherent requirement” of the job of priest or mufti or imam or brahmin or rabbi that the incumbent be a male?

    I don’t like the fact that most religions give all positions of power to males . And I certainly don’t like many of the beliefs of most of those religions in relation to things like sexuality and the status of women in society. For these reasons, among others, I don’t personally choose to belong to any of those religions.

    But a large proportion of our population (and quite likely an increasing proportion due to immigration) profess a deeply-held faith in a religion. And, for as long as that’s the case, I don’t feel good about the idea of government and the courts trampling all over those peoples’ beliefs.

    MB we are talking about the ability of a human being to fully participate in society. The religious are looking to reduce the ability of someone do do so – employment, access to goods/services etc. When there is a conflict between the beliefs that someone chooses to have, and the ability of someone to fully participate in society and not experience arbitrary discrimination, I need a VERY good reason not to support the person seeking to fully participate.

  41. The NYT article on why we have failed to address global warming (linked here a couple of times in the last few days) is very relevant to the current NEGotiations going on here in Australia.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/climate-change-losing-earth.html

    The article explains why trying to find a political solution is simply the wrong approach …

    It was the spring of 1986, and Curtis Moore, a Republican staff member on the Committee on Environment and Public Works, was telling Rafe Pomerance that the greenhouse effect wasn’t a problem.

    With his last ounce of patience, Pomerance begged to disagree.

    Yes, Moore clarified — of course, it was an existential problem, the fate of the civilization depended on it, the oceans would boil, all of that. But it wasn’t a political problem. Know how you could tell? Political problems had solutions. And the climate issue had none. Without a solution — an obvious, attainable one — any policy could only fail. No elected politician desired to come within shouting distance of failure. So when it came to the dangers of despoiling our planet beyond the range of habitability, most politicians didn’t see a problem.

    This is how the article concludes …

    Everyone knew — and we all still know. We know that the transformations of our planet, which will come gradually and suddenly, will reconfigure the political world order. We know that if we don’t act to reduce emissions, we risk the collapse of civilization. We also know that, without a gargantuan intervention, whatever happens will be worse for our children, worse yet for their children and even worse still for their children’s children, whose lives, our actions have demonstrated, mean nothing to us.

  44. It’s been a good week so far for Turnbull.
    1. The ACT won’t sign the NEG because it doesn’t address emissions reduction adequately
    2. Queensland won’t consider any NEG until it’s been approved by the Coalition party room.
    3. Lousy polls in Victoria
    4. the royal commission finds that industry super funds have been well behaved but the retail funds have been very naughty into the detriment of members.

    And it’s only Monday!

  45. zoomster @ #384 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 4:59 pm

    Yes, teachers do teacher training for a reason. Being able to assess whether a student is working to their full potential – and how to get them to do so – is one of the skills developed.

    Are teachers who get an “unsatisfactory” mark in their training because of their huge unrealized potential still allowed to teach?

    If so, why?

  46. P1, my posts were to give your graph on global energy mix some context. In Germany renewables are nearing the level of coal – coal has reduced in real terms (just) and percentage terms (a lot) and greenhouse emissions have reduced significantly since 1990. It is only China that caused the global coal mix you showed to stay relatively stable over time.

    I am not buying into whatever debate you are having with whoever about nuclear or gas.

  47. Here’s the perfect accompaniment to anyone intending to watch Sales interview of Turnbull this evening. A Turnbullshit Bingo Card!

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