BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA

An overdue review of the BludgerTrack situation, as a new poll from YouGov Galaxy supports its finding that the Labor swing in Western Australia is back to sub-stratospheric levels.

The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.

There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.

We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.

Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.

Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.

At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.

Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.

Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,976 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA”

Comments Page 7 of 60
1 6 7 8 60
  1. From lizzie’s link .There’s that number again…

    “Universal Access to Early Childhood Education will conclude from June 30, 2020. That’s a saving of more than $440m.

  2. zoomster @ #285 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 1:47 pm

    If we’re measuring competence, let’s do that. So if Diog passes an exam with a mark of 90% but can’t perform the necessary procedure, he doesn’t get to be a doctor. Or he knows the theoretical hallmarks of a disease perfectly but can’t recognise it when he sees it manifesting in a patient…

    Diogenes @ #256 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 1:08 pm

    guytaur
    Say the exam was reading ECGs. The pass would be picking common arrythmias and heart attacks. A credit student would pick a posterior infact and second degree heart block and the distinction would pick uncommon arrythmias. I know which one I would prefer to see. Less patients will end up in the bunker with the distinction student than the pass student on average. But it does presuppose that it’s okay to pass someone who will make serious mistakes.

    Dio

    I have long thought it might be a cost saving and practical option to basically have medical students complete (and pass with a very high grade theoretical papers before embarking on the more costly practical training.

    You could for example have people from overseas or even those wishing to upgrade skills first complete written exams, Very low cost – even studying independently without high cost uni fees. If and only if they pass a number of related theoretical units would they enroll in the more costly practical courses – histology, hands on anatomy etc. I know the Gamsatt sort of already does this, but it is still necessary to enroll in log med courses.

    Also I do not see why drs must be both MDs and BS. If you separated the two you would get more people involved. i know that I opted NOT to do medicine because I was petrified of surgery.I would have been happy as a skin specialist, physician, shrink or even a GP. Surgeon no way!!

  3. I can’t speak for all degrees but, IIRC, the subjects related to practical application of skills earned in degrees are usually pass/fail, rather than graded – especially in fields where competency can mean the difference between life and death for people.

    I know in a few degrees (like Nursing and Aviation), failure in some practicals can put you up for instant preclusion too (students can appeal those, if there were special circumstances that led to the failure, of course.) I vaguely recall Aviation (well at least for those that are studying it to fly) is very strict.

  4. Confessions @ #248 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 12:54 pm

    How flame wars on PB begin and how they end

    They have an end ? 🙂

  5. zoomster @ #296 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 1:57 pm

    P1

    Yes, either a student is satisfactory (can perform the procedure) or unsatisfactory (they can’t).

    None of this half assed ‘well, they know 50% of how to perform the procedure, so they don’t need to bother learning the rest”.

    Are you now arguing that students must get 100% on their exams to pass?

    Harsh! 🙂

  6. Kailani Mana‏ @mana_kailani · 5h5 hours ago

    Turnbull, scratches nose stammers and stutters when asked why LNP aren’t paying the Farmhouse allowance in one lump. His reason? There are ppl who aren’t going to be qualified to get it. So it’s just another phony big announcement that LNP plan to fudge on #auspol

  7. John Setka‏ @CFMEUJohnSetka · 5h5 hours ago

    .@SkyNewsAust got everything it wanted. Message out & now trending. A far right extremist self confessed Hitler fan praising Peter Dutton. But hey….let’s not use the ‘N’ word!

  8. DTT and guytaur
    That’s completely true. As a doctor, you only use a fraction of what you were taught. Most of what I knew/know is irrelevant to my daily practice. The only time I use it is when a friend etc asks me. We waste a huge amount of resources training doctors so they know about lots of areas which they later forget. If someone agreed to practice in a more defined area, the training and cost would be a lot less (that is basically what happens with nurse practitioners some of whom so endoscopies now). If you got a motivated, high functioning RN, (s)he could be trained to do quite a lot of the work GPs and even specialists do.

  9. P1

    Oh, if you’re happy with someone performing a procedure on you when they only scraped a bare pass on how to do it, knock yourself out.

    (Which is – of course – why doctors don’t get to do procedures on that basis…they do an awful lot of practical stuff under supervision. Some of our local doctors are still under supervision of some kind after ten years in the country…)

  10. Basically, however, any education system ‘works’. It just depends what kind of outcomes you want on the other side.

    Our modern world demands people who can go beyond rote learning, who can question and investigate and come to conclusions by themselves, so that they can solve problems as they arise and adjust to new situations.

    A lot of ‘facts’ we learn turn out not to be so. Approaches to tasks change – I’d bet lots of money that some of the engineering techniques my son is being taught now will be obsolete by the end of his working life – we discover new drugs, new approaches, new techniques. So mere learning of a set of facts (particularly in secondary school) may ultimately be counter productive.

    Learning how to learn, and (equally importantly) being willing to learn, ultimately is a better fit for the world as it is now.

  11. For how much longer will the LNP go without a stuff up or brawl? It is weeks since they have made a serious blunder or serious internal fight – this is unprecedented for the Turnbull government.

    I’m hoping the NEG will result in a decent brawl and get defeated by joyce, abbot and Co crossing the house OR that it passes the with labor support for a better NEG that can be fixed once the LNP are out of office and a crossing of the floor by the loons (& so labor looks non-partisan). Labor should be able to push for a sensible outcome here – making it clear that the LNP cannot pass decent climate legislation due to it’s deep divisions and enslavement to the far right. it is a win win for labor – if the NEG passes with amendments to make it useful in the future, the LNP will have a public brawl, the greens will oppose and the ALP will be the champions of the sensible middle ground. If the LNP refuses amendments, the NEG will not pass and Labor can claim only they can deliver sensible environmental and energy policies because the LNP is hamstrung and Turnbull too weak to lead a divided party. Labor should be on the front foot with this – loudly proclaiming they will support sensible policies and selling their proposed amendments. They can also point out that GetUp and the Greens are against the NEG that they negotiate, placing themselves as in sensible centre.=m, saying it is better than nothing and that once in gov they can fix the NEG. It would not be a ‘win’ for turnbull, who’d likely face a leadership challenge over labor-amended legislation.

    The other thing labor needs to start pushing is Turnbull’s arrogance and ego – point out that he is a weird combination of weakness and arrogance whose vanity means that he’s not prepared to make hard decisions that might cost him his job. The lines to push are “Because of Turnbull’s weakness, Tony Abbott still leads the liberal party” and “Turnbull is too arrogant to listen to the community, but too weak and vain to stand up to Tony Abbott and Barnaby Joyce” and “What’s the point of Malcolm Turnbull?”

  12. Here in SA York Civil, a medium-sized local construction company, has gone into administration:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-06/contractor-york-civil-goes-into-administration/10077988

    The rate of progress on their tram job has been painfully slow, but it is a shame for their workers.

    So that great Infrastructure Premier and Infrastructure PM are not actually doing much in SA now are they? That will teach us for having no marginal seats. Roads are just a flavour of pork to the Liberals, while rail projects are even worse – what leftie electorates want.

  13. zoomster @ #309 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 2:20 pm

    Oh, if you’re happy with someone performing a procedure on you when they only scraped a bare pass on how to do it, knock yourself out.

    I have no idea what you are trying to say here … and I suspect you don’t either.

    Your original contention was that simple competence was not a good enough yardstick for your performance to be deemed “satisfactory”, and simple incompetence was not enough for it to be deemed “unsatisfactory”. It apparently depended on how you were doing against your “potential” – which of course is something that you can apparently judge independently of performance (but based on exactly what, I have no idea!)

    You now seem to be arguing the opposite.

  14. That was meant to say that our great LNP will win the next election by a landslide and Malcolm Turnbull will be a good leader for our great nation

  15. Sorry to be seem to be over-egging my daughter’s single release. But, the 3JJJ sight where it is posted went down over the weekend and some PBers expressed disappointment that the track would not load for them. This has been fixed. So, I’m linking it again for anyone interested in having a listen.

    https://www.triplejunearthed.com/artist/douzey

  16. GG:

    Thanks for that. The music isn’t to my taste but well done to your daughter on her achievements! She should be proud.

  17. Greensborough Growler @ #323 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 12:43 pm

    Sorry to be seem to be over-egging my daughter’s single release. But, the 3JJJ sight where it is posted went down over the weekend and some PBers expressed disappointment that the track would not load for them. This has been fixed. So, I’m linking it again for anyone interested in having a listen.

    https://www.triplejunearthed.com/artist/douzey

    A couple of questions on her song, which I think is brilliant BTW:

    Did she write it herself, or was it co-written with someone else?

    Did she play any/all the instruments, or does she have a backing band, or is she just one member in the band?

    Did she/they self produce/engineer the song or hire an external producer and/or engineer?

    These are just matters of curiosity. If she/they maintain that kind of standard for future works the future looks exceedingly bright for her/them.

  18. The only thing I dislike about those SA preselections (other than Gallacher still hanging around) is that Butler is contesting Hindmarsh and Georganas is contesting Adelaide. It should be the other way around (if you’re going to have such a factional deal), as Georganas has spent the good part of his life working hard for that electorate in one capacity or another.

    Also, I know Nadia Clancy. She has little chance of winning Boothby but she’s a great person and I sincerely hope that, should she not win this time, she’s a candidate for a winnable seat (federal or state) in future.

  19. Zoom
    “A lot of ‘facts’ we learn turn out not to be so. Approaches to tasks change – I’d bet lots of money that some of the engineering techniques my son is being taught now will be obsolete by the end of his working life – we discover new drugs, new approaches, new techniques. So mere learning of a set of facts (particularly in secondary school) may ultimately be counter productive.”

    As an engineer for several decades I can assure you that is so. In Engineering we develop a theory/practice, find better data or technology, and develop a new practice, realising the flaws in the previous one. In my field (transport), freeway building is being largely abandoned in most OECD countries. Not here of course…

    Economics is even worse. In economics we get better data but half the profession DON’T change their practices. So in the 1980s fighting inflation was the raison d’etre. Now underemployment is the real problem, but we still have right wing economic loons out there urging policies designed to fight inflation.

  20. No 2 on the SA Senate ticket, also used to work for FPMJG

    Marielle Smith is an experienced board member and public policy adviser. Ms Smith is currently a member of the board of Australia’s largest private operator of franchised public transport. She also works as a Senior Adviser on international public policy issues.
    Ms Smith has extensive experience in Federal Government, having worked as a policy adviser to the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet and the former Minister for Employment Participation and Childcare. She has held senior private sector management roles in business development and government relations, where she has worked extensively on procurement and tenders. Ms Smith has also volunteered her time working on policy issues in West Africa.
    Ms Smith holds a First Class Honours degree from the Australian National University and a Master of Public Policy and Administration with Distinction from the London School of Economics.

  21. http://newpolitics.com.au/2018/08/06/the-political-assassination-of-emma-husar/

    Ever since BuzzFeed published a series of articles announcing an ‘investigation’ and alleging ‘misconduct’ – littered with a wide range of sexualised references, such as “Basic Instinct”, “having sex”, “sexualised behaviour”, “zip up her dress”, as well as an ecstatic photograph of Husar in Parliament with her eyes closed, suggestive of cunnilingus under the desk – there has been a continuous media frenzy and gang attack on Husar, resulting in a series of death threats made against her, and she has had to take leave from her position.

    Yes, a great day for the progress of women in federal Parliament.

    It’s essential to note within the three articles published by BuzzFeed, there has been no analysis, and no background to what actually might be the developing story here – hypothetical or otherwise. For most people in the know, what has been alleged against Husar and the way it has been released has the fingerprints of the NSW Labor Right all over it and BuzzFeed has shown itself to be an amateur outfit for not picking up on this.

    For those unfamiliar with BuzzFeed, it’s the political version of New Idea – and its business model is based on cultural gossip and click-bait, sprinkled with some political news of the day. Its Australian headquarters are housed in a more salubrious part of the Sydney CBD, staffed by young middle-class privileged white kids and, to work there, you need a bit of cultural cache – know how to say the right words, know the right people, are ‘in’ on the latest cool things in the world – and have more attitude than sense.


    Emma Husar has gone into hiding. The allegations made against her may end up being proved correct, and we’ll soon find out, with the Labor Party promising to release their report in the near future. Based on what has been alleged, she may end up either losing her preselection, or losing the seat at the next election. In the political sphere, once allegations are made, they stick, even if they can be disproved. Which is exactly what the NSW Labor Right would have wanted.

    Husar has been politically assassinated by a reporter’s ‘coward’s punch’ and the irresponsible journalism that followed. She’s received abusive and offensive emails, had her family house stalked, and received several death threats. We didn’t have Australia’s Jo Cox moment but we’ll never really know how close we came to avoiding it.

    And thank you BuzzFeed. Look at what you’ve become.

  22. For those unfamiliar with BuzzFeed, it’s the political version of New Idea – and its business model is based on cultural gossip and click-bait, sprinkled with some political news of the day. Its Australian headquarters are housed in a more salubrious part of the Sydney CBD, staffed by young middle-class privileged white kids and, to work there, you need a bit of cultural cache – know how to say the right words, know the right people, are ‘in’ on the latest cool things in the world – and have more attitude than sense.

    I thought BuzzFeed was a serious media outlet like Crikey, but obviously not.

  23. Zoidlord @ #327 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 2:47 pm

    Tim Buckley
    ‏ @TimBuckleyIEEFA
    18h18 hours ago

    So @TheEconomist nails it – #coal and corruption go hand in hand, in India as in . No wonder our LNP promote coal like there is no tomorrow. But this article misses that coal demand will likely flat-line as #renewables take all new demand growth.
    https://www.economist.com/briefing/2018/08/02/india-shows-how-hard-it-is-to-move-beyond-fossil-fuels

    The chart in this article says it all really. I’ll try posting it here …

    BP notes that coal’s share of global electricity generation—by far the largest source at 38%—has not shrunk in over 20 years, despite the rise of gas and renewable energy (see chart 1).

    Coal is still king. The surge of renewables has been almost entirely at the expense of nuclear, not coal.

    Net benefit to the planet = zero 🙁

  24. Is anyone watching Royal Commission into financial wroughts?

    Seems Retail Super funds are admitting some fees for survices are really commissions … & now look to be REFUNDABLE . If I have it right.

    Maybe Leigh for Sale can ask Mal why he opposed the RC.

  25. Buzzfeed is basically socially liberal trendy news. It’s good for calling out Nazis and bigots and drumming momentum for socially progressive campaigns but is still upper middle class and still pushes right wing economics (bar a few intellectually abstract discussions about socialism that is divorced from anything meaningful.) It’s a favourite of trendy, inner-city types (usually Greens voters) who call themselves leftists but take stances like preferring Malcolm Turnbull over Bill Shorten because the former is a “silver fox” and the latter is boring.


  26. zoomster says:
    Monday, August 6, 2018 at 12:46 pm

    P1

    Indeed. So let’s acknowledge the important difference between the lazy b*stard who could do better if they weren’t an arrogant tosser, and who will cost you potentially thousands because of this, and the hard worker who will work their guts out.
    ..

    Your the one wasting the tossers time teaching him/her stuff they already know.

  27. P1

    Near enough is never good enough! (and some tasks are simply yes they can do it, no they can’t).

    I’m objecting to the simplicity of 50% is good enough, not endorsing it. I’m objecting to the idea that a grade tells you all you need to know, as well.

    I’m obviously thus arguing for a more complex system, and certainly a more individualised one.

  28. Rational Leftist @ #336 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 3:12 pm

    Buzzfeed is basically socially liberal trendy news.

    Then why are they running the Husar gossip?

    If that’s their idea of how to run a politicized media campaign for the left, they’re not very smart. Or is that ‘liberal’ as in ‘LNP’ liberal, where it actually means “conservative”?

  29. frednk

    No, I’m extending the tosser by telling them that near enough isn’t good enough and he needs to extend himself if he wants the S.

  30. Simon² Katich® @ #340 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 3:14 pm

    P1
    Germany is interesting.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>?itok=SfQ590JK

    Yes, it has been mentioned here before (by me) that Germany is the classic case of doing it wrong – sure, they are growing their renewables … but at the expense of nuclear, not fossil fuels. Yes, new demand is being satisfied by renewables, but coal and other fossil fuels are not reducing much at all, hence little or no reduction in C02 emissions.

    It was a conscious decision of the Greens in Germany to abandon nuclear and move to renewables. A monumentally stupid decision 🙁

  31. zoomster @ #339 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 3:14 pm

    P1

    Near enough is never good enough! (and some tasks are simply yes they can do it, no they can’t).

    I’m objecting to the simplicity of 50% is good enough, not endorsing it. I’m objecting to the idea that a grade tells you all you need to know, as well.

    I’m obviously thus arguing for a more complex system, and certainly a more individualised one.

    I’m no longer sure what you are arguing, except that you want to grade students as “unsatisfactory” – even if they pass easily – should they fail to live up to your idea of their “potential”.

    I am certainly glad I was not one of your students 🙁

  32. Not objecting, more confused about why a liberal media outlet would think it’s in their interest (or the interest of their preferred side of politics) to lead the pack with the Husar story.

  33. sustainable future…

    Its a fascinating conundrum. Any NEG that allows higher targets will be opposed by Abbot and his ilk.

    Any NEG that locks in low targets won’t pass COAG. Turnbull is screwed and I wonder why all those clever journalists don’t notice.

    Turnbull’s best bet is to kick the can down thr road. But I hope he persists and gets a brawl from the lizzards.

  34. Trump tweeted what?!?

    President Trump is a lawyer’s client from hell. He lacks self-control, cannot tell the truth and will not absorb legal advice he doesn’t like. Most clients don’t incriminate themselves in public. Again and again. Trump does, however.

    Trump fails to understand that the very meeting he is acknowledging is collusion — or conspiracy, if you will — to break campaign-finance laws. Insisting that it is legal to get dirt from a foreign national is politically and morally offensive (Trump was picked by the Kremlin) and contradicts his claim the Russians didn’t want him to win (another lie in the coverup). He knows they did — they had a meeting to help his campaign.

    Trump’s insistence that the meeting was perfectly legal and perfectly normal is wrong on both counts. No presidential campaign has gone to a hostile foreign power for help in winning an election. It’s a invitation for a foreign power to help pick our elected leaders, a constitutional abomination and a repudiation of the very concept of democracy (i.e., we pick our own leaders).

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2018/08/05/trump-tweeted-what/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.5ea87b87efa8

Comments Page 7 of 60
1 6 7 8 60

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *