BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA

An overdue review of the BludgerTrack situation, as a new poll from YouGov Galaxy supports its finding that the Labor swing in Western Australia is back to sub-stratospheric levels.

The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.

There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.

We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.

Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.

Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.

At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.

Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.

Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,976 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA”

Comments Page 5 of 60
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  2. Steve

    Its not over yet. The discrimination is still in place for employment via legislation in states like NSW.

    There is the Ruddock thing about to come out. This will help Labor in the polls as the neanderthals try and entrench discrimination into legislation.

    Meanwhile the priority for the LGBTI community is banning conversion therapy. A practice that is basically torture to appease those who believe their religion takes precedence over the real sexuality of children by parents.

  4. Not so happy to see the trend narrowing quite so much, but still hopeful that it will reverse before we get to the next election.

    Meanwhile:
    The NY Times Magazine has a special issue this weekend on climate change. The main article is “Losing the Earth” by Nathaniel Rich, is premised on the idea that in the period 1979 to 1989 when we basically knew everything we needed to know that climate change was a risk, and the politics had not yet been polarized, we missed our opportunity to act.
    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/08/musing-about-losing-earth/#more-21567

  5. I wonder if it’s a scripted?

    Leigh Sales
    ‏Verified account @leighsales
    31s31 seconds ago

    My guest tonight live in studio is the Prime Minister @TurnbullMalcolm #abc730

  7. Zoidlord

    The script goes something like the Simpsons………
    Lisa Simpson Leigh Sales “Mr. Burns Turnbull, Your Campaign Seems To Have the Momentum of a Runaway Freight Train. Why Are You So Popular?”

  9. Cottrell’s response to Bolt’s article.

    Blair Cottrell @blaircottrell89
    30m30 minutes ago
    It’s typical of old ‘conservatives’ to pretend to represent traditional values, then bow & grovel to their Leftist overlords whenever they’re told to. How am I a bully or an anti-Semite? How is that attack against me any different from Leftist slander?

  10. guytaur: “MB

    A range of other things?

    Racism?”

    Some religions arguably present racist concepts. Several religions are undoubtedly sexist.

    But they’re religions. They’re based on concepts of faith. Do we really want the state to start interfering with these things?

  12. Parliament should not broadcast Sky News. Neither should any business that does not support Nazis.

    Journalists should withdraw their Labor. Politicians and others should refuse to appear as guests.

    Lets say enough is enough. Congratulations to Craig Emmerson for doing exactly that.

  13. China launches exascale supercomputer prototype
    Supercomputers are changing people’s life in fields such as weather forecast, calculation of ocean currents, financial data analysis, high-end equipment manufacturing, and car collision simulation, said Pan Jingshan, deputy director of the National Supercomputing Center in Jinan.
    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201808/06/WS5b67a259a3100d951b8c8bf6.html

    You could probably add in Bioinformatics & wargaming among others.

  14. guytaur: “Meanwhile the priority for the LGBTI community is banning conversion therapy. ”

    I would agree with banning conversion therapy, but for me this would be on the grounds that it is quackery, not not the basis of the beliefs of those promoting it.

  16. Sophie Love ‏ @TheNakedFarmers · 2h2 hours ago

    Dear lovely journos, please check this out – it’s typical of how hard the akubra wearing government make their front page mercy missions work on the front line:

    @bencubby @peterhannam @SquigglyRick @workmanalice @hamishNews @frankelly08

    :large

  17. MB

    Belief has to be subordinate to fact.

    Eg. Trying to turn black skin white is medically wrong.

    Exactly the same applies to sexuality.

    This is why there should be no religious exemptions based on sexuality. Its an innate part of a person’s being.

    Just as the colour of skin is.

  20. booleanbach @ #203 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 12:03 pm

    Not so happy to see the trend narrowing quite so much, but still hopeful that it will reverse before we get to the next election.

    Meanwhile:
    The NY Times Magazine has a special issue this weekend on climate change. The main article is “Losing the Earth” by Nathaniel Rich, is premised on the idea that in the period 1979 to 1989 when we basically knew everything we needed to know that climate change was a risk, and the politics had not yet been polarized, we missed our opportunity to act.
    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/08/musing-about-losing-earth/#more-21567

    The NYT story is a fascinating article on the failure of science and scientists – why they failed then to alert us to the problem, and why they continue to fail now. (Of course, I do not mean that the scientists that are to blame, except in their inability to get a coherent message out – it is us who are to blame.)

    Here is a direct link …

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/climate-change-losing-earth.html

    Well worth a read.

  22. MB

    When religion tries to enforce its will on other people yes.

    You are entitled to your belief. You are not entitled to force it on other people

    That includes denying good and services and employment of a person based on your belief.

    The balance is held at where the greatest harm to society and individuals is.

  24. Nazi, neo-nazi. However you want to refer to Cottrell, but he sounds like a real class act. Not!

    Blair Cottrell is the Chairman of the United Patriot’s Front, having replaced Shermon Burgess in October 2015.[9] Cottrell has been criticised by the media due to his criminal convictions (which include arson, stalking, making threats to kill, serious contempt of Muslims and breaching intervention orders[10]), and for several of his public statements, including a desire to see a portrait of Adolf Hitler hung in Australian classrooms and for copies of Mein Kampf to be “issued annually” to students.[11] Cottrell has denied supporting Nazism.[12]

    In 2012, Blair served four months in Port Phillip Prison after being convicted of stalking his ex-girlfriend and her new partner, and of arson after attempting to burn down the man’s house.[13] In December 2013 he was fined $1,000 and sentenced to seven days in jail by a County Court judge for aggravated burglary, property damage, arson, trafficking testosterone, possessing a controlled weapon and breaching court orders.[14]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Patriots_Front#Blair_Cottrell

  25. Sales: I must say that you’re looking well tonight Malcolm, er I mean Prime Minister.

    Trumble: Why thank you Leigh. It must be all that bracing country air. You know Lucy and I are farmers so we understand the plight of these poor farmers more than most politicians that I could name, particularly from the Labor side.

    Sales: Do go on.

    Trumble: Oh I thought you were going to ask questions. Anyway, as we all know the drought is all Labor’s fault because they never once put a dollar into cloud seeding when they were in government. As I say to farmers all over this wide brown land, imagine if the ALP had shown some forsight.

    Sales: Indeed…

    Trumble: I think you like listening to the sound of my voice almost as much as I do. Anyway if you were going to ask about the GBRF, all I have to say is…

    Sales: Not really, PM. I think that it’s all been satisfactorily explained.

    Trumble: Oh jolly good. Well onto the NEG then. The greatest single energy innovation in the history of Australia is in danger of being destroyed by irresponsible Labor states.

    Sales: But can you guarantee it will reduce prices?

    Trumble: Hang on minute – I’m not Bill Shorten…

    Sales: Sorry Mr Turnbull, I got my lists confused. Are we still ok for dinner?

  27. That Farm Allowance form is not made any easier by the likelihood that farmers are not as literate as the general population.

  28. I think Cottrell has every right to appear on the media to espouse his nut job views. In return we have the right to ridicule the fool. That is the price of democracy. It is only problematic, when the news source allow him to express said nut job views without a challenge. Did Sky question and ridicule him?

  29. As an employer, you are confronted with two students – one got an A, one got a C.

    I think it helps to know that the one who got an A is an arrogant, lazy b*stard who will try and avoid work, will automatically dismiss anything you tell them as not worth listening to, will ignore advice when you give it to them, and will look for every excuse in the book rather than admit they’ve f***ed something up. (But hey, they’re really really good at remembering facts).

    Whereas the one who got a C is conscientious and painstaking, always wanting to improve, gives 100%, and asks questions when they’re not sure of something. He may have to look up stuff more often than the A student, of course.

    Of course, ideally all A students would have the qualities of the C students as well. But they don’t.

  30. …I reckon the standard Centrelink application form would look like that if you printed it out. Of course, it contains a lot of ‘if you answered yes, go straight to Question 6. If you answered no, fill out Sections 4 and 5…”

  32. Confessions @ #223 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 12:26 pm

    Nazi, neo-nazi. However you want to refer to Cottrell, but he sounds like a real class act. Not!

    Blair Cottrell is the Chairman of the United Patriot’s Front, having replaced Shermon Burgess in October 2015.[9] Cottrell has been criticised by the media due to his criminal convictions (which include arson, stalking, making threats to kill, serious contempt of Muslims and breaching intervention orders[10]), and for several of his public statements, including a desire to see a portrait of Adolf Hitler hung in Australian classrooms and for copies of Mein Kampf to be “issued annually” to students.[11] Cottrell has denied supporting Nazism.[12]

    In 2012, Blair served four months in Port Phillip Prison after being convicted of stalking his ex-girlfriend and her new partner, and of arson after attempting to burn down the man’s house.[13] In December 2013 he was fined $1,000 and sentenced to seven days in jail by a County Court judge for aggravated burglary, property damage, arson, trafficking testosterone, possessing a controlled weapon and breaching court orders.[14]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Patriots_Front#Blair_Cottrell

    I may be thinking of the wrong person but I am fairly sure he was sentenced to jail for something last year as well.

  33. How many more items from the Budget will be found by accident?

    Preschool and early-learning education for more than quarter of a million Australian children is under threat as the federal government prepares to cut nearly half a billion dollars of spending on the sector.

    A previously unreported statement in the May federal budget says government spending on the National Partnership agreement on Universal Access to Early Childhood Education will conclude from June 30, 2020. That’s a saving of more than $440m. Together with a cut to the Quality Agreement program for early childhood, savings get close to half a billion dollars.

    The Mitchell Institute – an education think tank at Victoria University –said it came across the five-line statement detailing the saving only by accident.

    Director of the Mitchell Institute, Megan O’Connell, said Australia was already lagging the rest of the world by offering only one year of preschool for most children when two years was regarded as the international standard.
    …
    A spokesman for Education Minister Simon Birmingham said the program was not scheduled to end until June 2020, which meant there was ample time to iron out policy settings with the states and territories.

    He said about 30 per cent of parents nationally did not take advantage of the government’s offer of 15 hours a week preschool and this, along with other funding issues, would be worked out in the Council of Australian Governments’ Education Ministers Council well before the end date.

    https://www.afr.com/news/policy/education/threat-to-preschool-funding-revealed-months-after-the-federal-budget-20180805-h13khl

  36. ..to link back to P1’s comment, the genius who gets an Unsatisfactory is the A student (I hadn’t read back). Lots of geniuses in history were basically unemployable.

    As guytaur says, we need to work out what education is for – is it to make the job of employers and universities easier when differentiating between students, or is it about take students from diverse backgrounds and equipping them to be lifelong learners (or something in between)?

    Arguably, there’s nothing stopping employers and universities working out their own methods of assessment.

  37. Sohar @ #226 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 12:29 pm

    That Farm Allowance form is not made any easier by the likelihood that farmers are not as literate as the general population.

    I don’t really think that’s a fair call these days, though admittedly that farmer has yet to go metric, and yet to appreciate that exclamation marks also use ink.

  38. If I ran a media group, the hard and fast rule would be not to interview persons convicted of dishonesty or violent offences.

  40. Alpo@7:58am
    Yes Newspoll predicted ALP win in Longman.
    But the result was at the upper end of the MOE.
    I read stories by David Crowe I think before elections when he was following Hanson on trail that she was urging voters not to vote for Shorten but direct their preferences to LNP.
    LNP knows how it worked out during state elections when LNP and PHON reportedly had secret understanding. LNP knows PHON is electorally poisonous but they still chase them.
    But for LNP deniability sake, Hanson put LNP 8th and ALP on 9th or something similar on how to vote cards and LNP put PHON above ALP although way down the list.

  41. Joel Fitzgibbon‏Verified account @fitzhunter · 2h2 hours ago

    .@kochie_online asks PM about Commonwealth-State cooperation on drought. Here is his answer, not a clue. His Gov’t abolished the COAG Committee and its drought policy reform processes 5 years ago. Sadly we are now watching the results #drought

  42. P1

    Indeed. So let’s acknowledge the important difference between the lazy b*stard who could do better if they weren’t an arrogant tosser, and who will cost you potentially thousands because of this, and the hard worker who will work their guts out.

    Our system rewards the slacker who wastes their potential whilst penalising the hard worker who understands their limitations.

    (Most of the med students I knew – I repeat – got through on 50%. I know they were capable of better. A system which told them that 50% was not good enough might have helped there).

  43. Outrage meter about to explode..

    Sky News on WIN launches on Sunday, September 2 and among the highlights will be a new breakfast program, Headline News.

    “I can’t stand the media that think of regional Australia as other. I think of it as the same, as an extension. It’s all one country, some people just have bigger backyards,” Murray said.

    “Mine is a show that can be led by audience feedback. The more people we’re exposed to means the show could go in any direction. If there’s a burning issue that bubbles up, then I’ll go there. The best part about my show is the ability to get out of the studio and go to an area. Now that we’re servicing even more areas it means we can take the show to any dot on the map.”

    The dedicated 24-hour channel will feature select Sky News content including Credlin, The Bolt Report, Outsiders, Jones + Co, Richo, Politics HQ, SPEERS, Paul Murray LIVE and Kenny on Sunday.

    Talent highlighted across the regional channel will include David Speers, Andrew Bolt, Laura Jayes, Kieran Gilbert, Ashleigh Gillon, Peta Credlin and Alan Jones.

    While news junkies will still be able to get a dedicated news fix across the Sky News channels on Foxtel the new channel will bring a taste of the best TV journalism to the regions.

    https://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/cairns/foxtel-to-launch-24-hour-news-on-win/news-story/2adf8455e87d0d42dca63ab44558b3c8?nk=00ecbcecb5223bb6462d63f8335ddedc-1533523757

  45. zoomster @ #235 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 12:43 pm

    ..to link back to P1’s comment, the genius who gets an Unsatisfactory is the A student (I hadn’t read back). Lots of geniuses in history were basically unemployable.

    Now this is a classic logic failure. Some geniuses are unemployable => all unemployable people must be potential geniuses!

    Arguably, there’s nothing stopping employers and universities working out their own methods of assessment.

    Or private schools, for that matter. Why not just let them calculate your ATAR based on your school fees?

    EDIT: Blast! Failed my own logic test! 🙂

  46. The whole point of the 50 as the pass mark is that is where experts have determined that enough knowledge to do a job is.

    The effort required to get there can have many reasons. What a teacher can see as unsatisfactory can have causes unknown to the teacher. e.g. Family problems at home.

    Then we get to employment discrimination. Why should someone be penalised if they can do the job just because they do it more slowly. See the Gig Economy podcast on Rear Window I referred to yesterday.

    Think time and efficiency studies and the unions court cases against them.

    Education is for the person not the employer. How you attain the qualification should not matter. The fact you attain it is what should count. All a higher mark proves is that in exams a student does better.
    We know that some people do better in on the job training than in a school setting. Something to do with the way the mind works.

    There is too much emphasis in our society on what the employer wants. Its part of the neo liberal ideology. I am not denying that the person that gets a higher mark will be better for the employer. I am arguing that the knowledge to attain the skill to do the job is what counts.
    Education should not be a recruiting tool for employers and comments by teachers about satisfactory or unsatisfactory should be for parents and support people to help the student improve to attain the grade. Not a means to punish them because they may have had difficulty in getting the grade.

  47. guytaur: “MB
    When religion tries to enforce its will on other people yes.
    You are entitled to your belief. You are not entitled to force it on other people
    That includes denying good and services and employment of a person based on your belief.
    The balance is held at where the greatest harm to society and individuals is.”

    But it’s not only religion which tries to enforce its will on other people. I’m sure you are very familiar with the Masterpiece cake shop vs Colorado Civil Rights Commission case, in which the US Supreme Court ended up finding in favour of the cake shop. Who was trying to impose their will on whom in this case? There were lots of cake shop owners in Denver Colorado that were happy to make a wedding cake for a same sex marriage. Why did the Colorado Civil Rights Commission decide that it was reasonable to pick on this particular one and, effectively, try to force him to make such a cake when it was against his personal religious beliefs?

    As reported in the Guardian article, the ACTU is looking to have the general exemption of religious bodies from some aspects of anti-discrimination legislation to be ““narrowed significantly so that they can only apply when it’s an inherent requirement of the job.” This presumably means that courts will get to decide in future what is/isn’t an “inherent requirement” of a job. And courts could make some highly challenging rulings, eg: what if a court was presented with the argument that it is not an “inherent requirement” of the job of priest or mufti or imam or brahmin or rabbi that the incumbent be a male?

    I don’t like the fact that most religions give all positions of power to males . And I certainly don’t like many of the beliefs of most of those religions in relation to things like sexuality and the status of women in society. For these reasons, among others, I don’t personally choose to belong to any of those religions.

    But a large proportion of our population (and quite likely an increasing proportion due to immigration) profess a deeply-held faith in a religion. And, for as long as that’s the case, I don’t feel good about the idea of government and the courts trampling all over those peoples’ beliefs.

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