BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA

An overdue review of the BludgerTrack situation, as a new poll from YouGov Galaxy supports its finding that the Labor swing in Western Australia is back to sub-stratospheric levels.

The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.

There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.

We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.

Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.

Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.

At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.

Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.

Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,976 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  1. @Nick
    You know any company has stories of not being trained properly, i know my niece working for KFC and under certain conditions not properly trained for.

    Once again cherry picking an argument.

    Sounds like you never have worked before.

    I have done Factory work, Warehouse work, IT Work, and all those jobs I have done that people don’t do things right.

  2. While Democrats grow optimistic about their chances of taking control of the House in November, they are increasingly anxious that the presence of their longtime and polarizing leader, Nancy Pelosi, is making it harder for many of their candidates to compete in crucial swing districts.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/pelosi-is-the-star-of-gop-attack-ads-worrying-democrats-upbeat-about-midterms/2018/08/09/f85a2474-9b43-11e8-8d5e-c6c594024954_story.html?utm_term=.a9cfbd4b2f89

    Jeez they should simply ignore the Republicans’ focus on Pelosi and concentrate on campaigning.

  3. And the reason why Democrats should ignore Pelosi attacks? The Republican President is a great huge honking target!

    Jake TapperVerified account@jaketapper
    2m2 minutes ago
    Guardian: Omarosa says she witnessed POTUS use racial epithets about Kellyanne Conway’s husband George, who’s half Filipino. “Would you look at this George Conway article?” she quotes the president as saying. “F**ing FLIP! Disloyal! F**ing Goo-goo.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/10/omarosa-trump-book-the-apprentice-memoir

  4. …in the electorate office I worked in, the MP had very little to do with running the office, because she basically wasn’t there. She was either in Parliament or out in the electorate talking to people.

    The office was run by her Chief of Staff.

    I could also point fingers at several Labor luminaries who we’d all agree were worthwhile politicians who had very poor judgment when it came to choosing people for roles. It didn’t stop them introducing policies to Parliament which helped thousands – if not millions – of Australians.

    Husar has said she isn’t perfect. Neither is any other politician. Every one of us would have a different list of the qualities we want to see in our elected representatives….and there would be very few human beings, let alone human beings willing to run for Parliament, who would satisfy our requirements.

    I’ve been involved in probably twenty campaigns. In that time, no one has ever raised office management skills as an issue of importance. Probably because so few constituents ever have anything to do with the electorate office. Or perhaps because they think other issues are far more important.

  5. Nicholas @ #2947 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 7:41 pm

    Having a bunch of made-up sexual-harassment allegations trumpeted nationwide by the media has nothing to do with anyone;s management/communication skills (or lack thereof).

    The investigator found that Husar’s management and communication methods with her staffers were sub-standard. He also found that the claims about misuse of public funds had merit (which suggests at least that she was out of her depth).

    The ALP did a poor job of supporting this new MPs to develop the skills she needed. Then again, ideally a person goes for a job that they aren’t completely ill-equipped to do. If a person lacks the basic managerial and communicative competence to prevent an exodus of staff, they should work on those skills BEFORE running for the job.

    Where on the nomination form and in the Constitution does it say a Member of Parliament needs to be able to manage an office?

    The fact that if elected they need to, suggests that more attention needs to be given to new Parliamentarians to, if needed, help them develop the skills to do this.

    Labor did respond by sending in someone to assist for a time.

    I wonder how many of the complaints stem from after this?

  6. You know any company has stories of not being trained properly, i know my niece working for KFC and under certain conditions not properly trained for.

    How many KFC store managers are paid $200,000 per year and get to vote in the House of Representatives?

    The stakes are higher and the scrutiny is much greater.

    Only seek such an office if you understand what it entails.

  7. Nicholas @ #2955 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 8:00 pm

    You know any company has stories of not being trained properly, i know my niece working for KFC and under certain conditions not properly trained for.

    How many KFC store managers are paid $200,000 per year and get to vote in the House of Representatives?

    The stakes are higher and the scrutiny is much greater.

    Only seek such an office if you understand what it entails.

    How many jobs have you had?

    Every time you get a promotion or a new job there is a major learning curve.

    Throw into the equation a completely new career and the amount you have to adapt and the things you need to learn are huge.

    You seem to have little idea in this area.

  8. Where on the nomination form and in the Constitution does it say a Member of Parliament needs to be able to manage an office?

    If your understanding of the role of an MP comes entirely from the nomination form and the text of the constitution, you are woefully underinformed about the job and should not seek it.

  9. Throw into the equation a completely new career and the amount you have to adapt and the things you need to learn are huge.

    Other new MPs manage to make the transition without turning their own staff against them.

    Some people just aren’t up to the job. Knowing how to work with other people and earn their trust and respect is kind of important for this job.

  10. Nicholas @ #2957 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 8:06 pm

    Where on the nomination form and in the Constitution does it say a Member of Parliament needs to be able to manage an office?

    If your understanding of the role of an MP comes entirely from the nomination form and the text of the constitution, you are woefully underinformed about the job and should not seek it.

    Way to go, just disregard the rest of the comment which brings context.

    If you meet the requirements you are eligible to sit in Parliament if you receive the support of your electorate.

    That is the one condition, your background and expertise is irrelevant.

  11. Shellbell, I’m lurking, still appreciating your posts. In one of his very rare admissions, Lusher, J admitted to me that H. V. Evatt suffered dementia, to such an extent that, unless he resigned, the supreme court would resign – can you add to that?

  13. Nicholas @ #2958 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 8:12 pm

    Throw into the equation a completely new career and the amount you have to adapt and the things you need to learn are huge.

    Other new MPs manage to make the transition without turning their own staff against them.

    Some people just aren’t up to the job. Knowing how to work with other people and earn their trust and respect is kind of important for this job.

    Do they?

    Or do the issues get dealt with by the Party as the Husar matter was and you never hear about it.

  14. Nicholas, heartless, condescending twat that he is, strikes again.

    Wherever it says being a pointy-headed management type is a prerequisite for the job of an MP I haven’t spotted it yet.

    Gee, I guess not having managerial skills would disqualify 3/4 of all MPs from all eras, particularly the old boiler makers, engine drivers and other working class trades unionists, from whose ranks suçh hopeless managers as Curtin and Chifley rose. I hear Churchill wasn’t too fabulous with staff, either.

    But Nicky would have had them replaced with Business MBAs, presumably.

  16. Bushfire Bill @ #2963 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 8:20 pm

    Nicholas, heartless, condescending twat that he is, strikes again.

    Wherever it says being a pointy-headed management type is a prerequisite for the job of an MP I haven’t spotted it yet.

    Gee, I guess not having managerial skills would disqualify 3/4 of all MPs from all eras, particularly the old boiler makers, engine drivers and other working class trades unionists, from whose ranks suçh hopeless managers as Curtin and Chifley rose. I hear Churchill wasn’t too fabulous with staff, either.

    But Nicky would have had them replaced with Business MBAs, presumably.

    Nick is looking to set up a ruling class to look after us plebs. 🙂

  18. 51-49 to state Labor in Queensland. I suspect a scraped 51-49 given the primaries:

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/voters-lose-patience-with-lowprofile-premier-and-labor/news-story/40bbdba90d34a0e6807145eb5f41f47f

    (Ignore the spin, this just looks like a standard victory-bounce-washing-out poll to me)

    Probably of far less interest to most readers here but I post it anyway:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/08/hobart-city-council-voting-patterns.html
    Hobart City Council Voting Patterns 2014-2018

    … based on analysis of 493 contested votes!

  22. 5
    Speaking of my avatar, a well documented and very sad story. Kylie Tennant’s overly sympathetic biography “Politics and Justice” covers it well. I have seen one allegation that most of his judgements were written by a Chinese (unusual at the time) law student working in his office but I suspect that was apocryphal. Getting him out was difficult and the government sent him and Mary Alice to a London law conference by very slow boat. He had a serious stroke between Melbourne and Adelaide and there was then a long stand off with the family to get a resignation which only came after a threat of dismissal by parliament.

  25. Our great LNP will win the next election and our great PM Malcom Turnbull will be returned as our PM for another Three years and Bill Shorten will be dump as as labor leader and Chris Bowen will replace him as labor leader and still will not be able to win in three years time as our great Australian people do not trust the labor party to run the country as the spend like drunken sailors and let people smugglers start there trade again which we will see death at sea again…only Our great LNP will stop the people smugglers and also stop the spending

  26. [‘Nicholas, heartless, condescending twat that he is, strikes again.’]

    Oh FFS, you do carry on BB. Please step down from your soap box, lest…(?).

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