BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA

An overdue review of the BludgerTrack situation, as a new poll from YouGov Galaxy supports its finding that the Labor swing in Western Australia is back to sub-stratospheric levels.

The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.

There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.

We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.

Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.

Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.

At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.

Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.

Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,976 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA”

  1. Good evening all,

    I was wondering if anyone may be kind enough to let me know how the tv news tonight reported on the Hussar story ?

    Cheers and thanks in advance.

  2. Frednk whatever is agreed at next week’s partyroom will change anyway before a final agreement is reached assuming we ever get a final agreement.

  3. ‘Davidwh says:
    Friday, August 10, 2018 at 8:15 pm

    Frednk whatever is agreed at next week’s partyroom will change anyway before a final agreement is reached assuming we ever get a final agreement.’

    The Feds are demanding that the states agree to whatever it might turn out to be? Really?

  4. Defamation laws in Australia are a mess. They are designed to enrich lawyers rather than strike a reasonable balance between reputation and free speech.

    If people are truly concerned about restoring their reputation and deterring reckless claims, they should not be interested in massive damages. They should instead be content with a heavily publicized correction and apology. In nearly all instances, that should be enough. In the most egregious cases, a pay-out that is capped at something like half the full-time annual minimum wage is sufficient to recognize the harm and deter extremely reckless statements.

    The ridiculous amounts of money that plaintiffs can be awarded encourages lawyers to get involved. It is bad to be a litigious society. It wastes resources and it infantilizes people. Adversarial processes and dollar signs in the eyes encourage people to spit the dummy instead of resolving their differences like adults. A lot of these conflicts could be sorted out through mediation, dialogue, and apologies. Courts should only rarely be involved.

  5. The question may as well be asked first on Bludger: ‘Has a Victoria Cross award ever been taken from a recipient?’

    Surely only if the act of bravery can be demonstrably proven not to have happened?

  6. Boerwar the government is playing politics as well. There will be changes if it ever goes ahead. Then it will probably change again in 2019 when Labor gets into government.

  7. The Coalition want to lock in 10 years of renewable energy stagnation with the NEG, not sure why anyone in their right mind want to support such a thing.

  8. Pithy and to the point comment to the legal article about Defamation action potential for Emma Husar in today’s Crikey:


    Where was buzzfeed when Barnaby Joyce was behaving more badly than Emma Husar?

  9. If the NEG gets through & power prices remain the same or rise then Turnbull + the rest of the shit for brains coalition are toast. Actually we’re all toast this summer of luvin the drought.

  10. It always amazes me when women, esp women who work in traditionally male-dominated professions, compete with each other instead of support one another to succeed.

    Why are you amazed? That is what 35 years of neoliberal economic policy does to a society. It fosters selfishness; it undermines cooperative and egalitarian ethics.

  11. Even if her management practices could not be remediated, exactly what kind of message does this send to women contemplating public office?

    It sends the message that if you have poor management and communication skills, you will struggle in a job that demands those skills.

  12. The mechanism of the NEG is by design complex and opaque, so it would be acceptable to the party room.

    Frydenberg can get away with saying that it isn’t an emissions trading because any such trading is hidden and not obvious.

    Labor, both Federal and the states might support it if it can be easily modified, not set in stone for 10 years, but as it is they shouldn’t.

    In the negotiations with the states Frydenberg hasn’t budged one bit.


  13. Nicholas

    Defamation laws in Australia are a mess.
    ..

    So Nich has surfaced. Given your behavior that is probable a good thing for you.


  14. Davidwh says:
    Friday, August 10, 2018 at 8:24 pm

    Boerwar the government is playing politics as well. There will be changes if it ever goes ahead. Then it will probably change again in 2019 when Labor gets into government.

    Which raises the question, why not just leave it for 6 months? The mess was the last 5.5 years.


  15. Davidwh says:
    Friday, August 10, 2018 at 8:50 pm

    Frednk Turnbull is trying to leave a legacy as well as attempting to save his ass by acting PM’ish.

    They have done that; pretty much destroyed all the good done by the previous labor government. It will take a lot more than a half baked solution to fix up the damage done by destroying the carbon trading scheme. Fraser had the sense to knock off the rough edges; this lot have just made an unholy mess.

  16. Oakeshott Country

    Yep, they really treated the old soldiers well back in the good old days.
    .
    “Ravenhill’s VC was forfeited in 1908 after he was imprisoned for theft of a quantity of iron and could not afford to pay the 10 shilling fine. His VC-entitled pension was also withdrawn. Ravenhill died in poverty at the age of 49, and three of his children were taken away to be fostered in the USA and Canada.Ravenhill is buried in an unmarked grave at Witton Cemetery, Birmingham.’

  17. Davidwh says:

    Frednk Turnbull is trying to leave a legacy

    Why? As he already has left a legacy. A fwarked up NBN that will dog the nation for years. A fitting tribute to the bankster PM.

  18. Knighthoods still get taken away for criminal behaviour although I don’t think there were any between
    Sir Roger Casement executed in 1916 for his role in the Easter uprising and Sir Anthony Blunt exposed in 1979 as a Soviet spy

  19. Oakeshott Country

    Further on the VC . George V had the right attitude to the award. Whatever the later crime it does not negate the original bravery.

    King George V felt very strongly that the decoration should never be forfeited and in a letter from his Private Secretary, Lord Stamfordham, on 26 July 1920, his views are forcefully expressed:

    The King feels so strongly that, no matter the crime committed by anyone on whom the VC has been conferred, the decoration should not be forfeited. Even were a VC to be sentenced to be hanged for murder, he should be allowed to wear his VC on the scaffold.

    The power to cancel and restore awards is still included in the Victoria Cross warrant

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Cross#Forfeited_awards

  20. C@tmomma@7:50pm
    “Prue Car got pre-selected to a State seat while Emma Husar got pre-selected to a federal seat”
    Prue Car (it appears one of the ALP it girls) got selected to a relatively safe State seat while Emma Husar got pre-selected to a marginal federal seat against a 1st time sitting MP, which very few expected Husar to win.

  21. poroti @ #2921 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 6:56 pm

    Oakeshott Country

    Yep, they really treated the old soldiers well back in the good old days.
    .
    “Ravenhill’s VC was forfeited in 1908 after he was imprisoned for theft of a quantity of iron and could not afford to pay the 10 shilling fine. His VC-entitled pension was also withdrawn. Ravenhill died in poverty at the age of 49, and three of his children were taken away to be fostered in the USA and Canada.Ravenhill is buried in an unmarked grave at Witton Cemetery, Birmingham.’

    The original act of bravery for which the award was awarded either happened or it didn’t. If it didn’t happen, then yes, take the VC away. But if it did, then surely whatever fates await the recipient in their post-military life have no impact whatsoever.

  22. Ven @ #2924 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 9:07 pm

    C@tmomma@7:50pm
    “Prue Car got pre-selected to a State seat while Emma Husar got pre-selected to a federal seat”
    Prue Car (it appears one of the ALP it girls) got selected to a relatively safe State seat while Emma Husar got pre-selected to a marginal federal seat against a 1st time sitting MP, which very few expected Hussar to win.

    Yes, but the green-eyed monster works in mysterious ways.

  23. From today’s Crikey, inside the Greens party failure to address sexual violence accusations. Surely a progressive party that holds itself as different and better than the major parties can do better than this.

    Recent revelations of sexual misconduct allegations against members and representatives of the Greens are regrettably and devastatingly unremarkable. Sexual violence happens inside the Greens, just as it likely happens inside most organisations. What is remarkable, however, is that the Greens so egregiously failed — and continue to fail — to investigate allegations of sexual violence, including my own, against members of the party.

    The Greens’ institutional response to sexual violence is just one illustration of a dangerous political logic taking hold in the party, one that values electoral success and vote-winning above principle, including the principle of justice for survivors of sexual assault.

    Those who report sexual assault in the party are cast as troublemakers who must be silenced, no matter the cost to their wellbeing, to justice or to the safety of others in the party.

  24. C@t
    I Don’t believe this can be purely local, pre-selection politics. Sussex St must be involved for it to have been so well organised.

  25. Oakeshott Country, and so on the evidence thus far evinced – not that one would caste aspersions in the absence of probative evidence – the SAS Regiment is almost a sacred relic, this story having a long way to go. Fairfax would not have published had the allegation thereof not amounted to more than a scintilla of truth. I also suspect that “Handy Andy” has a few skeletons.

  26. Oakeshott Country @ #2933 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 9:24 pm

    C@t
    I Don’t believe this can be purely local, pre-selection politics. Sussex St must be involved for it to have been so well organised.

    Oakshot

    I am just a puzzled observer but I have to agree with you. The HAS to be some factional warring at the highest level.

    Now it seems to be a split in the NSW right but I am no up with the goss at all.

    Who is fighting whom and why?

  27. Nicholas @ #2913 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 8:33 pm

    It sends the message that if you have poor management and communication skills, you will struggle in a job that demands those skills.

    Now you’re just trolling.

    Having a bunch of made-up sexual-harassment allegations trumpeted nationwide by the media has nothing to do with anyone;s management/communication skills (or lack thereof).

  28. It’s going to be very gruelling pre selecting candidates for the upcoming election. Not only will they need to make sure their citizenship is in order, they’ll have to demonstrate they know how to run an office.

    Obviously, other minor details such as a broad life experience, policy expertise, intelligence, compassion etc etc will be second order issues.

  29. Having a bunch of made-up sexual-harassment allegations trumpeted nationwide by the media has nothing to do with anyone;s management/communication skills (or lack thereof).

    The investigator found that Husar’s management and communication methods with her staffers were sub-standard. He also found that the claims about misuse of public funds had merit (which suggests at least that she was out of her depth).

    The ALP did a poor job of supporting this new MPs to develop the skills she needed. Then again, ideally a person goes for a job that they aren’t completely ill-equipped to do. If a person lacks the basic managerial and communicative competence to prevent an exodus of staff, they should work on those skills BEFORE running for the job.

  30. I dunno. Broad life experience, intelligence and compassion should provide most of the prerequisites for running an office…. and not being able to run an office suggests that one or more of them may be lacking

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