BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA

An overdue review of the BludgerTrack situation, as a new poll from YouGov Galaxy supports its finding that the Labor swing in Western Australia is back to sub-stratospheric levels.

The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.

There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.

We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.

Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.

Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.

At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.

Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.

Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,976 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  1. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    What can you say? Labor still ahead of 2016 result in WA. Good.
    Still holding their own in Queensland, with more GBR Foundation stuff to come. Good.
    I’m a bit worried about the pile-ons on Labor in Victoria via the Police affecting their polling generally. Not so good.
    And, of course, the Emma Husar matter in NSW. Not so great either.

    On the plus side, there’s still 9 months until the federal election! Probably.

  2. [@JohnWren1950 · 9h9 hours ago

    Let’s be clear. The banks are badly exposed to the farming sector. If farmers walk off their farms, banks lose. After months of inaction, @turnbullmalcolm has only acted when his donors (banks) demanded he act. The $12k payments will largely go straight to the banks. #auspol]

  3. simon holmes à court
    7h7 hours ago

    this is @JoshFrydenberg’s trajectory for australia’s energy transition, i kid you not.

    at least trump is honest and says he’s pulling out of paris.
    australia is pretending to be genuine, but may as well be out.
    #auspol #energyAU

  4. Cat
    I would still agree that so far there is no substantive evidence of wrongdoing by Husar, only rumours. But if there is evidence she has used public staff for private purposes then she is gone.

    As for the Victorian mess, whoever came up with the Red Shirts idea should be sacked. A gift to the otherwise unelectable Matthew Guy and his business cronies.

  5. Socrates

    Andrews in Vic is doing so many good things on the social front that it will be a tragedy if the destructive Libs win.

  6. “This is dangerous territory. When politicians resort to using race in advancing their agendas, they inevitably excite racial anxiety and stir up social division. They end up damaging our racial tolerance and multicultural harmony”.

    Among various references, Soutphommasane cites comments by Malcolm Turnbull about Sudanese gangs, remarks by Citizenship Minister Alan Tudge and other ministers about separatism, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton’s proposing white South African farmers deserved “special attention” for visas, and Tony Abbott’s questioning of migrants from Africa. He also points to commentator Andrew Bolt last week arguing that a “tidal wave of immigration” was overwhelming Australia.

  7. lizzie @ #8 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 6:23 am

    ” rel=”nofollow”>:large

    Thank you for making my day, lizzie. 🙂

    Mr Bowe should adjust the Bludgertrack. 😉

    I also hope it flows onto Guy.

    However, looking at it in the broad, there are so many Victorian federal MPs who are engaged in dodgy stuff. Hunt with My Health Data for Insurers. Tudge with Centrelink and Robodebt and character assessments for immigrants. Julia Banks saying she could so live on Newstart! Kelly O’Dwyer and her support of Penalty Rate Cuts and voting against a Banking RC. Kevin Andrews and Michael Sukkar just for being a knob. 😉

    Not to mention, Mr Malcolm ‘African Gangs Crisis’ Turnbull.

    Of course they deserve to be wiped out!

  8. Socrates,
    The proof of Emma Husar’s pudding will be in the eating and I’m going to wait for the results of the, now compromised, investigation by John Whelan Jr before I see if her goose is cooked.

    Suffice to say, procedural fairness has not been followed in this instance.

  9. lizzie,
    Dutton and Blair Cottrell have so much in common. Cottrell thinks that White South Africans should be the only people we allow to emigrate!

  10. GOP insiders dismayed as Trump ignores candidates at rallies to brag about himself: ‘No interest in staying on message’

    GOP insiders are becoming increasingly concerned the Donald Trump’s visits to battleground states to promote local candidates may be having a negative effect on voters as the president seems more interested in talking about himself than the local candidate in need of a boost at the polls.

  11. With the Victorian Raids on Labor I think the Vic Police are corrupt considering that they won’t investigate the mafia-lnp links.

  12. Hundreds of mines will have the green light to leave behind environmentally hazardous no-go zones without public scrutiny, despite the Queensland Government touting landmark rehabilitation reforms, environmental advocates say.

    Under the Government’s new bill, expected to be passed later this year, existing mines will not have to justify plans to leave “non-use management areas”, which may include pit voids, waste rock and water dumps.

    By contrast, new mines will have to produce evidence including environmental reports to show why such areas cannot be “rehabilitated to a stable condition”, meaning they are safe, cause no environmental harm and can be used for something else after mining.

    Across Australia there are more than 50,000 abandoned mines — a legacy of the early mining days when resource companies simply walked away when the profits dried up.

  13. Littleproud on RN on drought. One question on climate. Littleproud allowed to wax lyrical about all the funding going to R&D, essentially unchallenged. No follow up questions. Nice work, Fran.

  14. Trump acknowledges, defends 2016 meeting between son, Kremlin-aligned lawyer

    President Trump on Sunday offered his most definitive and clear public acknowledgment that his oldest son met with a Kremlin-aligned lawyer at Trump Tower during the 2016 campaign to “get information on an opponent,” defending the meeting as “totally legal and done all the time in politics.”

    While “collusion” is not mentioned in U.S. criminal statutes, Mueller is investigating whether anyone associated with Trump coordinated with the Russians, which could result in criminal charges if they entered into a conspiracy to break the law, including through cyberhacking or interfering with the election.

  15. A different Michael @ #17 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 6:45 am

    Littleproud on RN on drought. One question on climate. Littleproud allowed to wax lyrical about all the funding going to R&D, essentially unchallenged. No follow up questions. Nice work, Fran.

    Fran Kelly is a joke. Zero integrity as a journalist. Hamish Macdonald is way better.

  16. Trump just made 2 problematic admissions about the Trump Tower meeting

    Two issues.

    The first is that Trump appears to have broken some new ground here when it comes to admitting the true purpose of the Trump Tower meeting with a Kremlin-aligned lawyer — and even further contradicted the initial statement he helped draft about it. At the time, Donald Trump Jr. issued a statement explaining that he and the lawyer, Natalia Veselnitskaya, had “primarily discussed a program about the adoption of Russian children.” We have since learned that the elder Trump actually dictated that statement.

    The second issue here are the final words of the tweet. “I did not know about it!” This is something Trump has said regularly about the Trump Tower meeting and something he has re-upped now that Michael Cohen is reportedly telling people that Trump did know about it.

  17. C@t

    I have a vivid memory of Fran attacking Howard in an interview and refusing to back down.
    How things have changed!

  18. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Former Race Discrimination Commissioner Tim Soutphommasane writes that race politics is back – and the far-right are loving it.
    Tony Burke has strongly denied with Eryk Bagshaw says in this contribution in the Husar issue.
    Martin Hirst writes that this week, we learned that $443 million of taxpayer funds were gifted to a charitable Foundation heavily supported by the fossil fuel industry without proper due diligence. It might not save the Great Barrier Reef, but it might just sink Malcolm (Captain Bligh) Turnbull.,11756
    Urban Wronski with Turnbull’s bad week that was.
    As the banking royal commission is about to stat another round of hearings Adele Ferguson says that APRA needs to be held to account on superannuation fund performance.
    The $2.6 trillion super industry is bracing for damaging public hearings as data reveals a doubling in disgruntled retirement savers over the last five years.
    Meanwhile the tax bill for self-managed super funds has jumped $1.5 billion since the introduction of the Turnbull government’s superannuation reform package last July, according to new figures.
    Esther Han reveals that the My Health Record system is capable of storing genomic information, such as a person’s genetic risk of developing cancer, which could turbocharge medical research but has intensified privacy and security fears.
    According to this UN representative we need new ways to protect people in the digital era.
    The SMH editorial tells us that it is clear that further reform is required as the scourge of domestic violence continues to affect the lives of countless Australians.
    John McDuling looks at how the media mogul landscape has changed over the years.
    Yet again Trump changes his story about a certain Trump Tower meeting.
    A quarter of households have less than $1000 in savings and many blow all their income each month, a study reveals.
    Ross Gittins get to the heart of the problem with education in Australia.
    The BCA’s Innes Willox wants the states to back the energy plan. What a surprise.
    Business leaders and the Turnbull government are warning the Labor states they will be blamed for inflicting higher power prices on consumers and industry if they kill off the National Energy Guarantee, as the prospect of an end to the nation’s energy wars fades.
    However, more than 70% of Australians want the government to set a high renewable energy target to put downward pressure on power prices, according to a new poll.
    Shaun McCarthy extols the virtues of Jacinda Ardern. He sees her as an exemplar for mothers as leaders.
    Trump has denied that he is worried about son Donald Trump Jr’s exposure to Robert Mueller’s Russia-collusion investigation. He made the remarks as one of the president’s lawyers warned the special counsel against trying to force the president to be interviewed.
    Jill Abramson writes that Rudy Giuliani has turned out to be a dangerous liability for Trump.
    Volkswagen, the car company that made diesel a dirty word, is abandoning the technology in Australia. It’s an industry-wide trend.
    And the Foxification of Sky News continues apace!

    Cartoon Corner

    On the land with David Rowe.

    Mark David and transparency.

    Pat Campbell saves the GBR.

    Alan Moir sums up the GBR problem very well.

    Mark Knight goes to the checkout at Woolies.

    And he has a crack at the AFL.

    Sean Leahy and drought relief.

    Jon Kudelka puts the drought relief action into perspective.
    A few in here.

  19. The pristine waters of the Clyde River on the New South Wales south coast breed Sydney rock oysters that are so clean you can eat them fresh out of the water.

    But there are fears the distinctive taste could be lost under new environmental planning regulations being considered by a south coast council.

    The New South Wales Department of Primary Industries (DPI) has warned the plans, which include rezoning heavily forested land for agriculture, marine infrastructure and development, could have dire consequences for the local oyster industry.

    “It’s all very well for me to be a good farmer, but it’s the river that has created the unique, award-winning oysters that they are,” said Doyle’s Oyster producer Jim Doyle, who became the NSW aquaculture champion last year for his Batemans Bay oysters.

  20. Good morning everyone.

    This guy just keeps getting into the news.

    I’m referring to Justice Garry Neilson of the NSW District Court, who has seen fit to award $124,000 in damages – the majority for false arrest and wrongful imprisonment – to a teen skateboarder who deliberately picked a fight with the cops on the street while he was intoxicated.

    For those who are not familiar with the judge’s work, here are two earlier instalments:

  21. Bloody hell. I always thought Australian farmers were not into this sort of thing.

    How Australia’s meat industry plans to flood post-Brexit Britain with products banned in EU

    Growth hormones that have been banned in the EU since 1981 due to health concerns are used on about 40 percent of Australian cattle and have been in employed for more than three decades.

  22. The Foundation is set up to allow our biggest polluters to greenwash their inevitable destruction of the reef, a scandal in itself, but this week, Turnbull feels the pressure over his unsolicited gift of $443 million of taxpayers’ money. He could begin by getting the body to undertake studies into the run-off from the land newly-cleared in NSW and QLD which will help accelerate the destruction of the reef.

  23. Nice to see the sophomore effect is a factor especially in states like NSW. A nice contrast to 2013.
    I’ll also take 51-49 to the Liberals in WA.

    A lot of work still to do. The slightest error or mistake by Labor is seized on by the media (and yes some errors have been significant).

    They do report Liberal issues, but not with the same intensity or focus. What is with Fairfax reporting updates on the Reef Foundation in the entertainment section?

  24. Has Bludger-tracker made any adjustment for the newspoll preference wheeze? It seems to me there are really only two main data points: newspoll and essential. I flat-out don’t believe newspoll anymore. Essential could be right or could be wrong.

  25. Catherine Perry‏ @CatPurry9 · 11h11 hours ago

    While we’re outraged about the $444 million #reefgate scandal, could we also start asking questions about the $2.3 BILLION of wrongly documented/unauthorised payments from Dutton’s department too?
    Australia, I think we have a corruption problem, don’t you?

  26. Thanks BK for your daily contribution but to put it all together you must be at it before the sparrows even start to fart. To you sir I dips me lid

  27. “lizzie says:
    Monday, August 6, 2018 at 6:23 am”

    Thanks for the good news about the poll for the coming state election in Victoria….

    Victoria is also Shorten’s state… if the ALP trashes the Liberals there (in spite of the “African Gangs” and more recently the “Red Shirts” pathetic propaganda) what’s left for Turnbull?

    Looking forward to see the next Newspoll and what message sends to Turnbull (note how Newspoll was the only one that predicted the ALP win in Longman).

  28. Strange, the ‘test’ post posted no problems but trying to post

    Count down to first “Turnbull Reef Grief” headline starting……………….

    Kept getting 403 Forbidden/ No Permission to Access error.

  29. “I flat-out don’t believe newspoll anymore.”…

    …. On the other hand, anton, Newspoll was the only poll that predicted the ALP win in Longman…. and it was a truly BIG win….

    Are the pollsters grossly underestimating the vote for the ALP?…. Only a real election will tell…. I can’t wait.

  30. Turnbull quoted the old “droughts and flooding rains” for Australian farmers.
    Never mentions global warming, of course.

  31. @austrippa

    Can someone remind me when the last time an #africangang stole $442 million & gave it to their mates to spend as they please?


  32. I’m referring to Justice Garry Neilson of the NSW District Court, who has seen fit to award $124,000 in damages – the majority for false arrest and wrongful imprisonment – to a teen skateboarder who deliberately picked a fight with the cops on the street while he was intoxicated.

    Police officers are entrusted with extraordinary powers and they are therefore required to exercise extraordinary discipline and good judgement in the use of those powers.

    A mildly intoxicated teenager who swears at you does not justify decking the kid and then arresting him.

    This police officer abused his power and the teenager’s rights were violated.

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