BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA

An overdue review of the BludgerTrack situation, as a new poll from YouGov Galaxy supports its finding that the Labor swing in Western Australia is back to sub-stratospheric levels.

The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.

There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.

We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.

Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.

Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.

At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.

Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.

Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,976 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  1. Gittins seems to have a limited grasp of modern educational methods. As a result, his article is self contradictory in places. He gets it in bits, but then the fact he’s operating on only a hazy understanding becomes apparent. For example, in one paragraph he quotes approving someone saying we need to focus less on ranking and sorting, whilst implying that that’s a move away from the diagnostic approach – which is, in fact, exactly what the person is endorsing.

    He also seems to think that 100% of students need to learn 100% of the curriculum. Most schools don’t and can’t cover and never have and never will cover 100% of the curriculum, just for starters. Even if they did, our educational system is based around 50% being a pass.

  2. I remember a NSW District Court judge who used to wander onto the bench to hear another prosecution for swearing at a police officer and roll his eyes and say: “Oh, not another ‘fuck’ case.”

  3. One of the GBRF’s advantages for funding is its ability to raise frunds from private capital, says MT.

    Kristina Keneally‏Verified account @KKeneally · 16m16 minutes ago

    The @GBRFoundation says it’s raised $90m since it began in 2000. Labor analysed every year of its annual reports since 2000 and could only find $65m in revenue. #reefgate

  4. @lizzie

    Well LNP are known to blow their accounting out of the water to make things good for them and bad for Labor…

    HINT: NBN.

  5. “While we’re outraged about the $444 million #reefgate scandal, could we also start asking questions about the $2.3 BILLION of wrongly documented/unauthorised payments from Dutton’s department too?”

    Ok…whats that one about??? 🙁

  6. Reform of the law in arrest in NSW was triggered by the unnecessary arrest of mainly indigenous persons for offensive behaviour linked to deaths in custody.

    There are all sorts of alternatives which should be deployed no matter how obnoxious the behaviour officers face.

  7. ‘A mildly intoxicated teenager who swears at you does not justify decking the kid and then arresting him.

    This police officer abused his power and the teenager’s rights were violated.’

    Ah. So Nicholas DOES understand why fair process is necessary.

  8. Apparently Trumble on AM again, re his largesse to farmers.

    Followed up by Robbie and Wendy saying that Malcolm and Lucy really know what they are talking about because they have a farm.

    Really heartwarming stuff that shows that Malcolm has a heart after all.

    It’s good that the ABC doesn’t disrupt the heartwarming story by mentioning nasty little details like climate change or land clearance rates increasing by 800% in NSW.

  9. Why isn’t Andrew Gaff being investigated by the police and looking at jail time for an unprovoked 100m off the ball causing a fractured mandible?

  10. PhoenixRed

    The thing about that meeting is what did the Russians want/get?

    We are led to believe the Americans went in wanting dirt on Clinton but all that was discussed was future policy on adoptions! Of course not. Meetings usually end with some conclusion (ha ha) so what was agreed one wonders. Possibly about back channels and if Kushner followed up on this he will go to prison.

    Whatever, the security people fully understand that as an unreported meeting that presumably ended amicably, they were on the hook, compromised, they were assets. And even if no later actions were taken yet, it would not end there. It never does.

  11. The Herald Sun poll that has Labor ahead of the Coalition federally in Victoria by 57-43 is no longer available (click link, shows not fake). The WA one was published though. Clearly polling is being manipulated by the media.

    New poll puts Turnbull Government well behind Labor in Victoria
    Herald Sun-2 hours ago
    Labor leads the Coalition 57-43 of the two-party preferred vote in the survey of more than 1100 Victorians taken last week
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/new-poll-puts-turnbull-government-well-be

  12. AND water theft!

    I wouldnt mind someone coming and stealing some water from me right now.

    They can take the ice as well.

  13. New poll puts Turnbull Government well behind Labor in Victoria
    ANTHONY GALLOWAY, Federal Political Reporter, Herald Sun
    August 5, 2018 10:41pm
    Subscriber only

    MALCOLM Turbull faces a wipeout in Victoria at the next federal election according to a new poll.
    Labor leads the Coalition 57-43 of the two-party preferred vote in the survey of more than 1100 Victorians taken last week.
    In a worrying sign for the Prime Minister, the poll represents a five point swing away from the government compared with the 2016 federal election when Victoria helped keep Mr Turnbull in the Lodge.

    The new poll suggests Malcolm Turnbull’s government is far behind Labor in Victoria.
    The government would lose at least four seats in the state and be swept from power if the results were replicated at the next election, due by May next year.
    The ReachTel poll, commissioned by Greenpeace, comes as the Turnbull Government faces a critical test this week as it seeks to win support from the states for its signature energy policy, the National Energy Guarantee.
    While the poll doesn’t mention the NEG, it suggests more than three quarters of Victorians want Australia to embrace a high renewable energy target.
    The survey also showed 75 per cent of voters in the state want renewables to receive more government support than fossil fuels such as coal.
    Greenpeace’s Nikola Casule said his organisation would constantly remind voters who supported the NEG at November’s state election if the Andrews Government signed up.
    “If Daniel Andrews ignores more than half of the people he represents, then he will not only be responsible for kneecapping the renewables industry, higher electricity bills and more coal pollution, but he will pay the price at the November election,” Mr Casule said.
    “We don’t tell people how to vote, but we do make sure people are informed on the differences in the policies each party brings to the state election. If the NEG goes through we will make sure Victorians know who supported it and who didn’t.”
    The poll puts the Coalition’s primary vote on 33 per cent and Labor on 32.6 per cent.
    The Greens recorded a primary of 17.4 per cent, which is significantly higher than previous elections and polling, while One Nation sits on 4.8 per cent.

  14. I assume that Greenpeace give the State results to state papers (rather than the Guardian) to enhance coverage. Smart move.

  15. GWV,

    More
    #ReachTEL Poll Federal Primary Votes: LIB 35.0 NAT 2.3 ALP 34.4 GRN 12.1 ON 7.9 Other 8.3 #auspol

    52/48 to Labor.

  16. phoenixRed:

    Re the Washington Post article, we were only discussing indictments for both Trump Jnr and Kushner yesterday!

  17. Lovey says: Monday, August 6, 2018 at 9:06 am

    PhoenixRed

    The thing about that meeting is what did the Russians want/get?

    **************************************************

    There was talk that the Russians benefits from the meeting :

    a) Install a President “sympathetic” to Russia – weaken NATO and traditional Allies support etc
    b) Get said President to lift or ease “sanctions”against Russian oligarchs and government officials – and their incomes

    US imposes sanctions against Russian oligarchs and government officials

    The Trump administration is unleashing additional sanctions against seven Russian oligarchs with ties to President Vladimir Putin along with 12 companies they own or control.

    The measures announced by the Treasury Department on Friday were also aimed at 17 senior Russian government officials and the state-owned Russian weapons trading company, Rosoboronexport, which has long-standing ties to Syria and its subsidiary, Russian Financial Corporation Bank.

    The punitive actions are the latest escalating step by the US to punish Putin’s inner circle for interfering in the 2016 election and other ongoing aggressions across the globe in Crimea, Ukraine and Syria.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/06/politics/russia-sanctions-oligarchs/index.html

    All About the U.S. Sanctions Aimed at Putin’s Russia

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-11/all-about-the-u-s-sanctions-aimed-at-putin-s-russia-quicktake

  18. Confessions says: Monday, August 6, 2018 at 9:18 am

    phoenixRed:

    Re the Washington Post article, we were only discussing indictments for both Trump Jnr and Kushner yesterday!

    *******************************************************

    I think reality is starting to hit home – and has been said by others – its not the crime, its the COVER-UP ( the lies to Congress, FBI etc ) and as more and more details come out a few of Trump and his Crime Family are starting to realise how much deep shit they are in. It would have all been so easy for them to have not got involved in this Presidency thing – but just have continued unabated and left alone with their prior lives of fraud, tax evasion, racketeering ……. and all the other pleasures of flesh and sloth …….. How long will they play happy family or squeal on each other for reduced jail time ????? – I was just following Dad’s orders …..

  19. Zanetti actually had a ‘pass’ mark today, BK.

    He just needed to add “We wont…..but we will keep voting for you anyway”.

  20. imacca

    That story about Dutton’s huge departmental expenditure has been hanging around for a while but detail doesn’t seem to appear. Surprise!

  21. phoenixRed:

    I reckon the Trumps got into politics esp the presidency to further their business interests because most legit enterprises and business people wouldn’t touch them with a 10ft barge pole! It was the only option left really.

  22. Chuckle.

    Paul Syvret‏Verified account @PSyvret · 17h17 hours ago

    Writing a column. Can Twitter help me with identifying one policy area the Abbott/ governments have actually got right?

  23. antonbruckner11 @ #69 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 9:16 am

    The ReachTel poll, commissioned by Greenpeace

    Everything was good, until that part. But now it’s in the same boat as the seat-level polls that the Libs produced in the lead-in to the by-elections showing them winning in Braddon/Longman. When you pay a pollster to produce a particular result, of course they do.

    Can we get a poll commissioned by an apolitical entity, like C-SPAN or something?

  24. So it’s OK to assault another person but it’s not OK to wear a face veil!

    Bizarre!!!

    A 28-year-old woman wearing a face veil has become the first person in Denmark to be fined for violating a new law banning such garments in public places.

    The woman had been involved in a scuffle with another woman who had tried to tear her niqab off, police duty officer David Borchersen told Ritzau.

    “During the fight her niqab came off, but by the time we arrived she had put it back on again,” Mr Borchersen said.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-06/denmark-first-woman-charged-under-veil-ban-laws/10076980

  25. Katharine Murphy‏Verified account @murpharoo · 1h1 hour ago

    Frydenberg and Turnbull are saying the states are standing in the way of lower power prices if they scuttle the NEG. Another way to look at it is the Commonwealth is standing in the way of Australia meeting its Paris commitments if it doesn’t compromise #auspol

  26. lizzie @ #94 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 6:40 am

    Katharine Murphy‏Verified account @murpharoo · 1h1 hour ago

    Frydenberg and Turnbull are saying the states are standing in the way of lower power prices if they scuttle the NEG. Another way to look at it is the Commonwealth is standing in the way of Australia meeting its Paris commitments if it doesn’t compromise #auspol

    How dare Murphy say that about Frydenberg and Turnbull!!!! 🙂

  27. A few of tea pain tweets

    Embedded
    Tea Pain
    Tea Pain
    @TeaPainUSA
    ·
    1h
    This mornin’, Trump publicly implicated his eldest son and son-in-law in a felony conspiracy. Any man that would sell out his own son would gladly sell out his own country.
    Tea Pain
    Tea Pain
    @TeaPainUSA
    ·
    2h
    If you don’t care when the President of the United States looks you in the eye and lies to you, then Donald Trump ain’t the only one with a lyin’ problem.
    Tea Pain
    Tea Pain
    @TeaPainUSA
    ·
    3h
    Aug 5, 2018. “A day that shall live in stupidity.”

    The Day Trump Told Us There Was Attempted Collusion with Russia
    newyorker.com

  28. Confessions says: Monday, August 6, 2018 at 9:37 am

    phoenixRed:

    I reckon the Trumps got into politics esp the presidency to further their business interests because most legit enterprises and business people wouldn’t touch them with a 10ft barge pole! It was the only option left really.

    **********************************************

    Well they sure have “milked” the system and used it to line their pockets – but at what cost – as they have appeared to have breached the *emoluments clause* which prohibits Government members from profiting financially from their office ….. just another crime that has consequences ….

  29. AR – I’m sure that Greenpeace doesn’t really care about the voting intention component. That’s just the bait to get publicity. The only issue is whether the other questions infect that.

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